John Manuel's Top 50 Prospects
by mswift on Feb 2, 2011 7:03 AM EST
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1. Bryce Harper, Nationals
2. Mike Trout, Angels
3. Jesus Montero, Yankees
4. Dom Brown, Phillies
5. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays
6. Julio Teheran, Braves
7. Eric Hosmer, Royals
8. Dustin Ackley, M's
9. Shelby Miller, Cards
10. Matt Moore, Rays
11. Wil Myers, Royals
12. Mike Moustakas, Royals
13. Aroldis Chapman, Reds
14. Michael Pineda, M's
15. Martin Perez, Rangers
16. Freddie Freeman, Braves
17. Gary Sanchez, Yankees
18. Dellin Betances, Yankees
19. Jameson Taillon, Pirates
20. Manny Banuelos, Yankees
21. Manny Machado, O's
22. Dee Gordon, Dodgers
23. Zach Britton, O's
24. Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays
25. Mike Montgomery, Royals
26. Brandon Belt, Giants
27. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
28. Kyle Gibson, Twins
29. Chris Sale, White Sox
30. John Lamb, Royals
31. Alex White, Indians
32. Casey Kelly, Padres
33. Travis d'Arnaud, Blue Jays
34. aaron Hicks, Twins
35. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays
36. Desmond Jennings, Rays
37. Jon Singleton, Phillies
38. Randall Delgado, Braves
39. Chris Archer, Rays
40. Jason Kipnis, Indians
41. Brett Jackson, Cubs
42. Tyler Matzek, Rockies
43. Jacob Turner, Tigers
44. Derek Norris, Nationals
45. Jordan Lyles, Astros
46. Wilmer Flores, Mets
47. Mike Minor, Braves
48. Wilin Rosario, Rockies
49. Tony Sanchez, Pirates
50. Cesar Puello, Mets
From the handbook
Proving his extreme Yankee bias, John Manuel ranks four extremely overrated Yankee prospects from the overrated Yankees in the top 20. (And yes, this is sarcasm.)
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Thoughts
- Cesar Puello really made his top 50?
- I thought I was a Dee Gordon homer, but Manuel has me beat.
- Sanchez, Banuelos, and Betances all in the top 20 is surprising.
- D’Arnaud is much higher than I would have expected.
is it a rule
That the last guy on your prospect list has to be a guy that makes people say “huh?” Its like you have to put someone odd there so people know you’re not just copying other people’s lists.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 2, 2011 8:35 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
The end of a list always seems to be a "I put this guy here way back when" pick.
Nobody ever puts Deck McGuire at the end of their lists, it’s always somebody who has a chance (even if it’s a long one) to be a star. It’s pretty interesting that Manuel’s willing to go out on that limb with Puello.
Would sure like to see the writeup on the Puello placement
To be fair, their writeup from 2010 book was pretty positive, saying he had the potential for five average or better tools…but did he really show that much more development in any of them in the 2010 season? Preseason, they had him ranked 17th among Mets prospects. I’d like to know what Manuel saw in 2010 that moved him up so much.
There's this:
http://scoutingthesally.com/scouting-report-v2-0-cesar-puello-of-new-york-mets/
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Here are a fee more about Cesar
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010/08/05/all-about-cesar-puello/
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010/09/17/sal-sterling-award-winner-cesar-puello-interview/
"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier
Manuel's last three #50s
2010 – Knapp
2009 – Bard
2008 – Alderson
2007 – Fowler
Alderson, Bard, and Knapp were ALL guys that none of his fellow BA analysts had in their Top 50 (in the annual book, anyway), so yes, he is going out on a limb a little with these. But, in fairness to him, all of his picks have been correct: Fowler and Alderson both moved up on other lists the next year (Alderson was great in the Cal League that year), and I would also expect Knapp to this year. Bard had a breakout season in the majors the following year.
I guess I should be paying attention to Cesar Puello,
Desmond Jennings
Its good to see most of the BA writers don’t have him in their top 15. Everyone around here seems to overrate this guy. I mean he’s got some talent but he is also pretty much a LF who can’t stay healthy
ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
no. he’s basically Carl Crawford WITH better OBP skills at this stage. If anything, he’s slightly underrated around here. Pre-2010 people were talking about him at top-3 prospects.
one year does not diminish that skill. he’s not been healthy, but technically, neither has Hosmer (lasik surgery and wrist injury last year) AND is much more proven than Mesoraco or Hosmer or Harper. Scouts LOVE Jennings.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Feb 2, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
I'd tell you that you need to reevaluate your position...
but you don’t strike me as a guy who does that sort of thing.
hey pot
the kettle called, it said “you’re black”.
if you want me to reevaluate it, at least BE a rays fan.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Feb 2, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
It takes a Rays fan to make an objective judgment on Desmond Jennings then?
I get it now. Thanks for logical, thought-out, non-biased take on things.
Being realistic on a player doesn't mean you aren't a fan of the team.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Feb 2, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
are you the guy who said
Joyce is gonna play RF?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Feb 3, 2011 4:38 AM EST up reply actions
did you provide anything?
or are you just talking out of your #@$? oh, i see, thanks for providing NOTHING of substance. i see.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Feb 3, 2011 4:38 AM EST up reply actions
I only provide information when I know what I'm talking about.
That’s the difference between you and me.
but you don't SAY anything
obviously you’re a tool.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Feb 3, 2011 4:39 AM EST up reply actions
basically crawford??
Jennings hit 3 HR’s in AAA as a 24 yr old. Crawford hit 15 Hr’s in MLB as a 24 yr old.
Bingo. That's the big difference.
Jennings doesn’t have anywhere near Crawford’s power, though I suspect he’ll gain more than he has now. Jennings does have a better approach.
MUCH better approach
At 23 he also had 52 XBHs. It’s a bit short-sighted to claim he has no power because he hit 3 HRs in a year where he was recovering from wrist surgery. In 2009, Justin Smoak had 4 HRs, so he has no power either.
Fortunately, I never claimed that and have always said Jennings will grow into some more power.
Still, I’d be very surprised if he had Crawford power. I also don’t know if he’ll be quite as good defensively.
I don't think he will be as good for power, but I think he will be at least as good of a defender.
Crawford had a really good arm and was only a little above average defensively away from the Trop. Crawford could also never play CF.
arm?
Crawford is a good fielder, but I seem to recall his arm as being rather unspectacular
so, crawford puts up 15 or so runs per year defensively on the road?
got any stats to back that up?
Crawford could by all accounts play a fine CF..he just doesnt want to…he’s always said that and always stuck to it.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 3, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Because of the bias thing ?
I was obviously inspired by his ramblings.
Yeah, I think I had him at 125...
Interesting.
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I do think he's overrating the Yankees guys for sure
I can’t see how you can back having Sanchez that high and Sano not even on the list.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 2, 2011 11:11 AM EST reply actions
Pitch recognition and defensive value, I'd imagine
Sano’s only real edge is his raw power.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Sano is still quite unpolished and is currently projected to play on the opposite side of the spectrum
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Not exactly...
on the opposite side. I think he fits in at 3rd. If he moves to first he would be at the opposite end. I can see having Sanchez ahead, but I don’t think he is top 20 yet?
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Well, clearly I have a different positional projection then you ;)
Agreed on Sanchez, I don’t have him close to there.
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Yanks players
Wow… I’ve never seen someone that high on the Yanks where it’s to the point where they actually rank them ahead of the KC prospects… The Yanks top 4 are in the top 20 whereas only 3 of the KC prospects are in the top 20… This deviates drastically from just about every other prospect I’ve seen. I don’t argue with those prospects talents, I do however disagree with the yankees prospects talent relative to those they have been ranked above at this current point in time… Very interesting list indeed!
No teams prospects should be rated over the Royals prospects
More East Coast bias. I also like how Harper who;s never played outside of rookie ball gets ranked over Trout.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
montero should be ranked ahead of all of the royals prospects....
and im a royals fan
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 2, 2011 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Yea if you...
think he stays at C or you believe the insane hype about his bat. I wouldn’t call him Miggy jr just yet(like some have done) and anything else doesn’t put him ahead of Moose for me. I like the bat a lot. I just don’t like it like some people do.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
i believe in his bat alot more than I do Moose's
Montero hasnt had the bad season, the crazy home park advantage, the struggles against lefties, or the short stocky build that i dont really like.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 2, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
The thing is....
I can see Moose sticking at 3rd. Even if Montero has the better bat I see them no worse than about equal value. I have become a big Moose fan this year though.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I put Moustakas and Hosmer above Montero
And Jennings for that matter.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
yeah...i think jesus montero banged his gf or something
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 2, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Would love to see a prospect smackdown between Moose and Montero.
They are both similar, i think they are close enough where the argument may get redundant but would be a good one.
Right
because 20 year old hitters in AAA straight up mashing are common to find.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
.863 OPS is straight mashing?
he mashed in july and august and 27 september PAs, yes… but this is kind of like Pedro Alvarez all over again… everyone just dismissing the warts because of a strong finish. I don’t get it. Yes he’s a fantastic prospect, but he’s not Miguel Cabrera.
at 20
Pedro Alvarez was in college, and not playing catcher. I agree it’s premature to label Montero as a definite future star, but I don’t think it’s ridiculous to say he’s the best bat in the minors, and his ceiling is a Miguel Cabrera caliber hitter.
http://www.theyankeeu.com
I know east coast bias is a common thing
For people over at HalosHeavens fans but look at this before you complain.
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
by Drizzzy on Feb 2, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
That map is interesting
But it makes it looks like there’s Marlins fans all over Florida including Orlando and Tallahassee and that is simply not the case. Central Florida = Rays, North Florida = Braves.
by two fishsticks on Feb 3, 2011 3:46 AM EST up reply actions
Additionally
I was shocked at some of the rankings. First off, I’ll preface this by saying I’m a proud owner of Alex White, however I was really surprised to see him ranked ahead of Kelly, and Minor… And for that matter, I have yet to see Minor ranked that low… That really surprised me, wonder what the hell is up with that?
and turner
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I agree....
Turner that far below Taillon? Turner that far below Miller? Taillon that far below Miller? I have them back to back to back basically. At least we both have them ranked Miller-Taillon-Turner.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Agree on Minor
I don’t know why he continues to be underrated. His stuff is real.
And for that matter, I have yet to see Minor ranked that low…
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Kerm has MM @ #148 on his top150
I love that people are not sure/underrating him, gonna be even sweeter.
Though Mr Sickels seems to like MM, calling his FB ‘plus’, so eat it Kerm!-j/k buddy
149. I just bumped up Angel Villalona.
I don’t see plus FB. The main reason(s) when he threw it hard enough for plus velocity earlier in the year he sacrificed command, thus not having enough command for a plus FB. When he throws the pitch 89-91 he commands it well, but doesn’t have enough velocity for it to be a plus FB. Honestly, his FB is probably a better pitch at 89-91, than at 91-93. I know there’s a lot of velocity whores out there, so sorry if this offends you.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
So you have
a guy who might not ever play baseball in the US again in Villalona ahead of a guy who will be pitching in a major league rotation this year?
Sure, that makes sense
Sarcasm fail
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I was kind of hoping...
that you might at least try to explain why you like Villalona better than Minor? I can’t see any reason why that would be possible, so it would probably help if you tried to defend your position
Ok...
Sorry to confuse you. I don’t really have Villalona ranked ahead of Minor, nor do I have MM ranked @ #148, as Steve JOKED about above. I was simply feeding off his joke that I had MM ranked that low, as Steve and I don’t see eye to eye on him. I hope this helps.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Ha
Okay that makes a lot more sense. Thought you might be some kind of crazy Giants fan or something. Haha
I am crazy, but not a Giants fan.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I kind of wish....
my team was in their position right now :( Maybe Villalona escaped from prison and killed Cliff Lee while getting plastic surgery to look like him for a chance to actually help the Giants once in his career!!!!! I figured it out!!!!!
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
villalona's a free man
139k goes a long way in the DR justice system
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 2, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
loosen up the purse strings...
It’s like a few dollars a month.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
WOW
The more I look over this list the more I find that I have questions… at times I agree, at times I applaud his boldness for going outside the box on his ranking of certain prospects. But overall I just get this odd feeling that he just put names on a board and started throwing darts…
example
This is the first top 50 list I have seen that has 6, count ‘em 6 catchers in the top 50. 7 if Manuel complied this list prior to Myers being shifted to the OF. I didn’t know the catching pool was THAT deep, and that’s not even including players such as mesoresco, grandael, etc…
by PhillyPhanatic on Feb 2, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
D'arnaud and Rosario ahead of Mesoraco
big surprise to me
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 2, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I see nothing wrong with this list
There are some players that I’m higher or lower on that Manuel is, but that’s the case with all lists.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
There is nothing wrong with almost any list....
but admitting it takes away the fun!
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
again
I’m probably beating a dead horse here, but I really only care about his comments on the players… without context these lists are pointless (in my humble opinion). I may disagree with his placement of a player, but until I see his rationale, what am I really disagreeing with?
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it does matter tho
it means he considers a player to be better/more valuable than another and the rankings can tell a lot about the thought process in this way
It matters to a point...
I find write ups much more valuable though. Just ranking guys is almost pointless unless you have a reason behind each ranking. I do enjoy seeing so many different rankings. It makes the offseason almost bearable. lol
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
RE
rankings can tell a lot about the thought process in this way
I disagree, but feel free to explain to me what information you’ve garnered from Manuel solely from these rankings.
Clearly, he likes Dellin better than Turner, but how does one quantify that at all without a comment? I cannot. For all I know, to him they are both B+ prospects or, it could be a A- B situation. Not that quantification tells me much either, but at least that way it would tell me something outside of A>B.
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i should have said
it tells more about it, as compared to other rankings… when i see a prospect ranked way out of place, it makes me look at that prospect again to see if maybe i missed something.
oh gotcha
That makes sense to me.
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I'll discuss the Jennings situation.
In an interview, Friedman explained the plan is to get Jennings back into the playing ability he was in in 2009. His ETA is unknown since Damon helped the Rays bring in Manny.
Especially MM, eh?
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
What if you didn't have Minor on your fantasy team, but had Parker?
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
still no
But close, no doubt. I am quite bully on both, but MM is more likely to be an asset the next two years [with much better round value in our league].
I agree
I’d take Minor in our league for the reasons you stated. In real life, give me Parker though.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Tough choice...
A pole and discussion would be interesting. Parker is being underrated though.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Someday
The prospect book that I ordered IN OCTOBER! will arrive and I will be able to see why Manuel ranked the players the way he did. In the meantime, my brow is furrowed over Minor being behind White, Sale, Kelly, Matzek, Britton, and Archer. Give that Minor is basically in a major league rotation and looks like he’s there to stay, I can only surmise that Manuel either thinks Minor’s ceiling is the same his floor (4th starter?), or the rest of these guys are really likely to hit their ceilings. This rationale seems the opposite of having Chisenhall (the “safe bet”) ahead of Hicks, Lawrie, and Jennings (the athletic lottery picks).
I’ll reserve judgment, but am interested to see why he’s so low on Minor.
Low 90s touching 94
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Top 50
So if this is Manuel’s Top 50, what is the combined top-50? Is it Manuel/Callis/Lingo this year?
by siddfynch on Feb 2, 2011 10:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
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