Tampa Bay Rays Sleeper Pitching Prospects
Tampa Bay Rays Sleeper Pitching Prospects
Like the Kansas City Royals, the Tampa Bay Rays have a strong collection of pitching prospects. The best-known are Jeremy Hellickson (Grade A), Matt Moore (Grade A), Chris Archer (B+), Jake McGee (B+), Alex Torres (B) and Alex Colome (B). But there is another group beyond them that doesn't receive as much attention. Here are some additional arms to be aware of in the Rays system. In other organizations, some of these would be Top Ten prospects and considered anchors for the future, rather than "oh yeah, him too" pitchers.
Nick Barnese, RHP: 22 year old right-hander, posted a 3.02 ERA with a 100/26 K/BB in 122 innings last year in High-A, 114 hits allowed. Barnese works in the low 90s and has a terrific changeup, throws strikes and has always been successful. His main trouble is durability, with persistent issues with shoulder soreness. If healthy he can be a number three or four starter. Grade B-.
Alex Cobb, RHP: 23 years old, Cobb posted a 2.71 ERA with a 128/35 K/BB in 120 innings in Double-A, 120 hits allowed. Like Barnese, he projects as a number three or four starter, throwing strikes with his sinker, splitter, and very strong curveball. Also like Barnese, he would get a lot more attention if he was pitching in a different system. I have him as a Grade B-, which some people have told me is too low, but I'm sticking with it for now.
Joseph Cruz, RHP: 22 years old, Cruz posted a 2.85 ERA with a 131/39 K/BB in 142 innings, 137 hits for High-A Charlotte last year. Cruz has troubles with inconsistent velocity, working anywhere from 88 to 95 MPH, depending on the state of his mechanics. He improved his curveball and changeup last year. He will transition to Double-A in 2011 so I don't expect to see him in the majors before '12, but he is another guy who could fit in the middle or back of a rotation eventually. Grade B-.
Dane De La Rosa, RHP: 28 years old, but protected on the 40-man roster after showing a 90-94 MPH fastball in Double-A to go with a 1.97 ERA and a 75/26 K/BB in 73 innings. Picked up off the independent ball scrapheap and performed well last year. Has a chance to help in middle relief this season, and at his age they don't have to worry about messing up his development by rushing him too fast. Grade C, but interesting.
Shane Dyer, RHP: 22 year old with a funky delivery, a low-90s sinker, a good breaking ball, and a nice A-ball season under his belt last year (2.72 ERA, 109/28 K/BB in 136 innings, 125 hits, 1.80 GO/AO). He could be a fifth starter or more probably a relief type, but is worth tracking. Grade C.
Brandon Gomes, RHP: 26 years old, acquired from Padres in Jason Barlett trade. 1.87 ERA with 93/25 K/BB in 72 innings in Double-A last year. He has a great performance record and has a good arm (low 90s fastball, good breaking ball and splitter) and is murder on right-handed hitters, but is short for a right-hander (listed 5-11) and old for a prospect. Like De La Rosa, he could be a useful relief option. Grade C
Alex Koronis, RHP: 23 years old, posted a 4.24 ERA in Low-A last year but with a 100/40 K/BB in 85 innings with 69 hits allowed, showing strong K/IP and H/IP marks. A good athlete, he works in the 88-92 range but has a good curve and slider, and is effective when he throws strikes. If he can lower the walk rate, he could surprise this year. Another "Grade C but interesting" type.
Braulio Lara, LHP: 22 years old, posted a 2.18 ERA with a 58/25 K/BB in 66 innings in the Appy League last year with 49 hits allowed. Can hit 95 MPH, but needs to sharpen his command, and he wasn't young by Appy League standards. I have him as a Grade C+; he's got upside, but keep in mind that he's a month older than Barnese, who was two levels higher in the system.
Kyle Lobstein, LHP: 21 years old, posted a 4.14 ERA with a 128/54 K/BB in 148 innings in Low-A, 140 hits allowed. A second round pick in 2008 from Flagstaff, Lobstein has a good feel for pitching but has lost velocity since high school, throwing down into the mid-80s at times last year. He is a sleeper in the sense that his stock has dropped and he could get buried in this system, but he still has a pedigree that makes him worth tracking. Grade C.
Zach Quate, RHP: 23 years old, posted a 1.49 ERA with 25 saves and a 90/18 K/BB in 72 innings of High-A last year, 51 hits allowed. Velocity is average, but a wicked slider and low arm slot make him tough on right-handed hitters (just .154 last year). He could slot in as a middle relief type if he transitions well to Double-A. Grade C.
Wilking Rodriguez, RHP: Turns 21 in March. Posted a 4.23 ERA with a 93/28 K/BB in 106 innings in Low-A last year, with 109 hits. I thought he was a breakthrough candidate last year but it didn't really happen. Still, he is young, can hit 95-96 MPH, has a good curveball, and throws strikes. In many farm systems he would be a Top Ten guy. Grade C+.
Enny Romero, LHP: 20 years old, posted a 1.95 ERA with a 72/14 K/BB in 69 innings in the Appy League, 51 hits. Needs to improve his changeup, but already hits 95 and has a good curve. He was one of the best prospects in the Appy League last year and I have him as a strong Grade B prospect, the highest rating on this list. I'm listing him as a "sleeper" in this report just to point him out and remind people of him. There has been so much attention on the pitchers at the higher levels of this system that Romero gets overlooked somewhat, despite excellent performance and strong scouting reports.
Scott Shuman, RHP: 22 years old, posted a 3.01 EA with 14 saves, a 111/38 K/BB in 72 innings, and just 50 hits in Low-A. A 19th round pick out of Auburn in '09, Shuman has been much more effective in pro ball than he was in college. He has some command issues to work out, but his 92-95 MPH heater and solid slider enabled him to post outstanding K/IP and H/IP marks last year. Grade C+ for now, although if the control does sharpen he has a chance to close eventually.
Albert Suarez, RHP: Tommy John survivor protected on 40-man roster. 21 years old, posted a 3.89 ERA with a 30/16 K/BB in 42 innings in Low-A. Performance record isn't great, but he gets to 95 MPH, has a good curve, and impressed Rays officials enough that they felt like they had to protect him. They feel he is a breakout candidate as the injury recedes in the rearview mirror. Grade C for now.
Jake Thompson, RHP:21 years old, drafted in the second round out of Long Beach State last year. Given his draft position he isn't as sleepery as some of these other guys, but he doesn't seem to get talked about much, outside of Rays fandom, due to the attention given to the top levels of the system. He was much more effective in pro ball than he was in college, thanks to mechanical adjustments that enhanced both his velocity and his command. Grade B-, with a chance to be a middle-rotation guy. It will be interesting to see how fast they push him through the system, if they are less conservative with him than with their high school products.
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Saw a couple of these guys last year
Cobb was outstanding in his first AAA start in postseason, so-so in his second (both of which I saw). I like him a lot, think he’s better than a B- but understand the reluctance to rate him higher. A consolidation year at AAA will do him a lot of good.
DeLaRosa had a couple of issues with command in the zone when I saw him and probably needs to work on pitch selection. Worthy of attention, I see him as possibly coming along something like Grant Balfour.
Minor nit: Barnese pitched in high-A a year ago.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/
Comps for Barnese and Cobb?
I’m always interested in how to form a mental picture for what the designation “number three or four starter” might mean. Are there any pitchers out there that you see as a good comparison for Barnese and Cobb — or, as you might say, a pitcher whose career path they would be likely to follow?
I guess I’m trying to figure out what the Platonic ideal of a number three or four starter might be. Would it be Joe Blanton? Andy Pettitte? J.A. Happ? Joe Saunders?
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
Andy Pettite is way beyond a #3 / #4 starter
The K rate isn’t flashy, but he was damn good for a long time. If he had kept pitching he could have hit 70 WAR (not that WAR should be the only criteria), but that is a helluva lot more than a lot of hall of famers.
Pettite for most of his career was a #3 starter
it’s just that he was able to stay at that level for so long, which is impressive in it’s own right. Some players are great for 8 years, and some players are good for 15. Personally I don’t think good players for a long time should be in the hall, like Palmerio, Pettite, Omar Vizquel etc…
pettite wasnt a #3 for most of his career....
he was a #2 with some years at a #1 level
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 18, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Wow.
1997 and the 2nd half of 2005 with the Astros.
These are the two instances that Andy Pettitte could be called a #1 starter.
2001, when he had a 1.84 bb/9, he was very solid. 2003, he was very solid. A “#2 starter”
But Andy Pettitte pitched 16 seasons. For the other 12 years, he was consistently very good. Never once was he below replacement level. He averaged 3.525 WAR per season over those 12 seasons.
So what was he for “most of his career”? 3.5 WAR pitchers are guys like Ryan Dempster, Shaun Marcum, and Edwin Jackson.
by Kenneth Arthur on Feb 18, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
there were 31 starters with 4 WAR or more last year....
those are the #1 level pitchers. Pettite had 9 years at or above that level. Youre either vastly underestimating Pettite or everestimating the other SP in baseball.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 18, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Depends what you mean by the term #1
I’d venture to say that the number of “# 1” quality starters is a lot closer to 10 than 30. If you then say the next 20 best are a #2 quality then you’re getting closer to Pettitte. Being a #2 to 3 starter for that long is surely a great feat, but I think people view him as a borderline HOFer for being consistently pretty good. I’d say that’s more of a proper estimate.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 20, 2011 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks to that insight from billybeingbilly...
once again Humbled Fan has been humbled.
"As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use."
-Gustave Flaubert
by thinwhiteduke on Feb 19, 2011 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Jake Thompson
I think this kid has heaps of potential. He was already pretty young for a college junior draft eligible player & he was almost undoubtedly the best arm in the NY-P this past summer. He reminds me of LAA farmhand Garrett Richards a little bit in build & backstory (neither wowed in NCAA competition in terms of basic stats) although Thompson will need to work on his command to continue to make strides in 2011. Tampa might have taken him somewhat higher than many projected, so it makes me think that their scouts had a good read on this kid & wanted him in the fold.
His fastball is already a plus pitch with lots of movement & his change is getting there. I think he could be a #2 starter in he continues to progress as his physical gifts are ample. I would assume he’ll start the season in the FSL after a brief tour of duty in ’10. What an absolute embarrassment of riches Tampa has in their system..
The Tampa Bay front office is full of makeup whores
More so than most systems, I’m confident they’ll get the most out of the players they draft, especially in the first few rounds, simply because they make sure the guys they draft are motivated and willing to learn.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
That seems to work
The Braves were always really big on makeup as well, and it was one of the things I think Dayton Moore took with him to KC. I remember that was part of the reason they dealt Ambiorix Burgos to the Mets for Brian Bannister back in his first 6 months there.
Joe Cruz
Joe Cruz looked good when I saw him last season in A+ ball. I’m amazed an organization can have 8 arms better than that. He was one of the better guys in the FSL this year.
He was.
I saw him a few times too, and I must admit he looked pretty good. He just need much more consistency. Plus, I did see him hit 97, but he normally maxed out at 95-96, so John was correct.
Reason Alex Cobb is underrated
He gets oodles and oodles of ground balls
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 20, 2011 11:04 AM EST reply actions
It's crazy how littered with pitching talent the Rays system is
No fair! lol
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

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