Morning Notes: February 17, 2011
by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2011 12:30 PM EST
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Morning Notes, Thursday, February 17, 2011
**I'm back from my quick trip to visit my family in Iowa. Here are a few thoughts while I get caught up on my reading and research.
**I asked an Either/Or question about Domonic Brown and Mike Trout a few days ago. The poll results were surprising to me: 75% for Trout, 25% for Brown, out of (so far) 1256 votes). Although I expected Trout to win the poll, I thought it would be closer than that. I asked the question because on my Top 50 Hitters list in the book this year, I had Brown at Number Two and Trout at Number Four, but as I've thought about it over the last couple of weeks, I wasn't sure that was right.
I'm still not, but I'm not sure the poll and the community consensus is right, either. Everyone is excited about Trout and he's getting a lot of well-deserved hype, but Brown hit .327/.391/.589 last year between Double-A and Triple-A,, with 17 steals in 24 attempts. There is some apples/oranges going on here, given that Brown is three full years older than Trout and has more experience.
Trout turned out to be a more polished player than scouts expected coming out of high school, while Brown was extremely raw when he first got into pro ball and has had to work much harder to develop his baseball skills. They are in substantially different phases of their careers, which makes exact comparisons difficult both sabermetrically and traditionally.
**Ray posted a question yesterday about Matt LaPorta and Brett Wallace. Again, these two guys are in different phases of their careers. Both have been disappointing in their own way, but we have 162 games and 557 at-bats of data for LaPorta, and just 51 games and 144 at-bats for Wallace. There are all kinds of stories/rumors floating around out there about how disappointing Wallace has been, with scouts picking apart his swing mechanics and many predicting that he'll never pan out at all.
He's clearly got some plate discipline issues to work out, too. I am no expert on swing mechanics, but while it is apparent to me that expectations for Wallace were too high, I just can't get behind writing a hitter off after 51 games and 144 at-bats. Sociologically and psychologically speaking, people tend to over-correct in cases like this. Everyone was too high on him, now people are swinging back in the opposite direction too strongly given the evidence we have. Serious swing flaws or not, it is way too soon to say that he can't or won't fix them.
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Trout v. Brown
John, I think you have forgotten your question. It was “who would you rather have for your favorite team’s farm system” not “who will be the better hitter/player”.
I voted Trout, not because I necessarily think he flashes a better bat, but his game changing speed coupled with his hit tool and hopefully emerging power, makes him the more ‘exciteable’ player for me. As a result, it was the speedy, dynamic Trout who I’d rather have on my favorite team.
I'm surprised more people aren't scared off by Angels hitting prospects by now.
by Kenneth Arthur on Feb 17, 2011 12:59 PM EST reply actions
this
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Feb 17, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah...
His .340 BABIP on A+ bumped him down to a .294 BA in 223 AB’s compared to his ridiculous .419 BABIP in A ball. The bigger thing is that his OPS was inflated in A vs. A+ due to his 7 triples. The question needs to be is he getting the triples due to speed, poor defensive alignment, or being an advanced baserunner.
If you look at the 12 team MW league, the Cedar Rapids team is all over the triples list for the season with 4 guys in the top 24 including 2 in the top 5. It might be something for people to look at and determine why LAA has guys consistently in the top 10 in triples at CR. If you go back and look at the guys that played in CR and then in the Cal league the Triple/AB takes a hit the last 5 years or so.
I don’t have time to sit here and do the hypothesis testing on whether there is a statistically significant difference in Triple% from A to A+ to AA for the LAA players today, but it might be something to look at in the future. CR is approximately 2.5 STDev above the mean in triples.
They are far enough into the outlier region to at least start to wonder if this is a potential problem.
If you normalize his triples then his numbers fall back to earth a bit. I like Trout as a prospect and think he is a legit top 10 bat, but people might want to tap the breaks a tad.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
LSB: "Oh shit, JD. You crazy!"
funny
how just Brandon Wood means that Angel’s hitting prospects should “scare off” people.
Just for fun, let’s look at John’s list in 2007 for the Angels.
1. Brandon Wood, SS, Grade A (I’m not worried about the strikeouts)
2. Nick Adenhart, RHP, B+ (A fine young pitching prospect)
3. Sean Rodriguez, 2B-SS, B+ (still underrated by many)
4. Hank Conger, C, B (strong bat, glove a question still)
5. Erick Aybar, SS, B (starting to slip a bit in my mind)
6. Stephen Marek, RHP, B (doesn’t have Adenhart’s ceiling)
7. Jose Arredondo, RHP, B- (impressive fastball but needs another pitch)
8. Sean O’Sullivan, RHP, C+ (good pitchability but has lost some of his fastball)
9. Tommy Mendoza, RHP, C+ (throws strikes, projectable)
10. Ryan Mount, SS, C+ (I like his bat)
11. Jeff Mathis, C, C+ (needs a change of scenery)
12. Hainley Statia, SS, C+ (good glove, similar to Alberto Callaspo)
13. Matt Sweeney, 3B-1B, C+ (draft bargain blasted ARL pitching)
14. Trevor Bell, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm)
15. Jeremy Haynes, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm, gets grounders)
16. Kenneth Herndon, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm, gets grounders)
17. Young-Il Jung, RHP, C+ (equivalent to an extra second-round pick)
18. Peter Bourjos, OF, C+ (toolsy but rather raw)
19. Terry Evans, OF, C+ (was it a fluke? Not completely, but he’s not really THAT good)
20. Nicolas Vladimir Veras, RHP, C+ (another projectable arm)
i’ve bolded those bats that you could say are “busts” based on ML production SO FAR. Mathis is probably in that boat, too, but he wasn’t ever all THAT highly rated. The issue with the Angels’ bats are that they HAVEN’T had very many recently and the ones that they did have flamed out miserably. To say that Trout is in any way comparable to Rodriguez and Wood is asinine. His K/BB ratio is MUCH higher than either of those two EVER were.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Feb 18, 2011 3:18 AM EST up reply actions
actually
on further review:
Kotchmen and McPherson (from 2005) can BOTH be considered “busts”. so, perhaps you’re on to something.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Feb 18, 2011 3:20 AM EST up reply actions
Don't forget Kendrick
He has been an okay player but the guy was supposed to win multiple batting titles and hasn’t come close to his hype.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Feb 18, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
wallace
the thing that scares me about wallace isn’t that he has holes in his swing (which would be fixable). it’s the report by law that his problem is body type related and thus not really fixable.
Yeah, those comments by Law were pretty damning
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Feb 17, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
wallace
People have been attacking Wallace’s body type for years. It is simply too soon to write him off after 144 at-bats and it is basically an excuse for people to say “I told you so.”
If he still sucks after 800 at-bats, then sure.
by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
You saw what Law said though, right?
“But the new consensus is that Wallace can’t cover the inner half because he doesn’t fully rotate his back side through his swing, ceding the inside part of the plate to the pitcher, and that it’s not fixable.”
This seems to be bigger than simply an unconventional body type.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Feb 17, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
Yeah, I saw what Keith said. Doesn’t change my opinion. 144 at-bats. Not enough evidence. Not given how he’s hit in the past.
by John Sickels on Feb 17, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
He will go to rehab
Then rake, the end.
Brian Sabean would return more calls if he wasn't so busy being the greatest baseball mind in the history of the game.
I disagree with Law by the way
It’s not an issue with his body type, it’s an issue with his mechanics. He isn’t getting his front foot firmly planted before the ball arrives at the plate. He said an interview last year that he’s aware of that exact mechanical flaw and working to fix it.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
DBrown/Trout & LaPorta/Wallace
I’m with you on the Domonic Brown/Mike Trout angle also. I felt that Trout would ride the wave of hype to winning the little poll, but not by that margin. I think Trout was overlooked out of the northeast coming from HS & there is a bit of overcompensation going on now amongst scouts & avid baseball followers. I think that the fact that Brown didn’t go ‘all Jason Heyward’ upon his promotion last summer is weighing unfairly against him too. He had a spectacular AA/AAA slash line & has just as high a ceiling as Trout to me if not higher.
The Matt LaPorta/Brett Wallace poll was in terms of fantasy baseball in 2011 & I voted LaPorta. I don’t think either are high impact guys in the future & that both were overrated early in their minor league careers. I seem to recall believing LaPorta was something of a reach when the Brewers took him in the Top 10 way back when but a solid introduction to pro ball sort of silenced that amongst many. The Wade Boggs Lite comparisons, etc never really fit with Wallace to me as the former Sun Devil simply doesn’t have anywhere near that kind of plate discipline & he hasn’t seemed to improve. I still think he can be a Lyle Overbay (sans defensive value) type with improvement which I felt during his months while with Las Vegas, but wouldn’t bet on him being particularly useful in fantasy terms in the coming year.
Your view on Trout nails it.
He was a little overlooked as a NJ HS ballplayer, and now it just seems like people are trying to make up for it. He’s a very talented young player, but there’s alot to be weary of too…The Angels farm system is famous for it’s hitting environments, and it seems like every single bat out of their farm system in the past decade didn’t come close to the hype. The skills are there…who doesn’t love a kid who can hit for average, steal a ton of bases efficiently, not strike out, take a walk, has some power, and play a good CF…it’s just that the hype is over the top…Honestly it’s just another sign to me that this is a down year for prospects.
As far as Wallace they’ll both probably be alright in the future, but neither will break any major ground in their field.
nice post
i think the expectations some are putting on Trout are more than ridiculous.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Thursday...
John, thanks for bringing up the 70 degree weather today. Much appreciated. You need to come back home more often.
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