Community Positional Prospect #27 RUNOFF
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 12:59 PM EST
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PrintJosh Bell and Anthony Gose were separated by 1 vote in the open poll, and will now face off H2H to determine the next community positional prospect. Gose lost to Singleton in the runoff for poll #25, and Bell lost to Olt in the runoff for poll #26, so it will be interesting to see what happens here.
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#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 59.2%
#02 - MIKE TROUT - 38.8% (In Poll #1)
#03 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 52.9%
#04 - MANNY MACHADO - 31.5% (55.1% In Runoff)
#05 - DEVIN MESORACO - 45.1%
#06 - WILL MYERS - 31.6% (51.4% In Runoff)
#07 - JESUS MONTERO - 61.3%
#08 - ANTHONY RENDON - 53.1%
#09 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 46.6%
#10 - NOLAN ARENADO - 33.3%
#11 - MIGUEL SANO - 37.3%
#12 - YONDER ALONSO - 22.5% (45.3% In 3-Way Runoff)
#13 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 26.1%
#14 - BUBBA STARLING - 33.8%
#15 - XANDER BOGAERTS - 25.0% (55.2% In 3-Way Runoff)
#16 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 27.8%
#17 - OSCAR TAVERAS - 40.3%
#18 - BRETT JACKSON - 20.3% (58.7% In Runoff)
#19 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 31.3%
#20 - JAKE MARISNICK - 27.3%
#21 - HAK-JU LEE - 28.0%
#22 - NICK FRANKLIN - 24.3%
#23 - CHESLOR CUTHBERT - 30.3%
#24 - CHRISTIAN YELICH - 27.1%
#25 - JONATHAN SINGLETON - 21.9% (53.8% In Runoff)
#26 - MIKE OLT - 21.5% (67.7% In Runoff)
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by Gobroks on Dec 8, 2011 2:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 8, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
Preachin' to the choir
. . most likely but, to me Gose is already close to being a ballplayer with some value and, Josh Bell is moreso “pie in the sky bullshit”. No offense.
I guess one could say the same about Lindor or, even Bubba but, I didn’t see Bell being looked at for the 2nd overall pick. Lindor is 9 months younger than Bell as well.
To each his own but, the fantasty of the switch-hitting slugger is an alluring one.
"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.
by casejud on Dec 8, 2011 3:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Gose
Has a pretty decent all around upside too. He’s actually fairly comparable (not in all aspects) to George Springer. I prefer Springer, but they both look like plus CF defenders, both are really toolsy (Gose has more speed, Springer possibly more power), and both have some questions around them whether they’ll be able to really put it all together. I think Springer has fewer concerns, and a pretty similar upside. But either way, they are fairly comparable guys (not saying they are truly “comps” or anything) and I could imagine GMs having a tough decision about who to take as their CF of the future.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
“both have some questions around them whether they’ll be able to really put it all together. I think Springer has fewer concerns”
This is reasoning I don’t quite follow. Springer hasn’t had any significant professional experience, so given they have essentially the same outstanding concerns (swing and miss, mechanical issues with their swing), shouldn’t Gose have the advantage? A good college hitter doesn’t automatically translate to the pros, and this is one issue Gose doesn’t have to address. Gose is also a year younger, and his defensive value is much more certain. I could see preferring Springer because of a perceived higher upside, but if their upsides are similar, I don’t see it.
Just for the record, I like Springer, and he’s directly after Bell and Gose for me.
I have to agree with you
Springer has to be behind Gose, for all the reasons you mentioned.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Springer has fewer questions about his bat though
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
So drop Springer into AA this past year instead of college
And you think he produces similar to Gose this past year, even with a year’s age advantage? I don’t.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
Ha
Well that is unfair and I’m pretty sure you know it. College bats rarely start off in AA right away.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
But you can’t do that. And he knows that. There isn’t an “age issue” with someone coming from college. Still, you don’t send him right to AA.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't really matter
I like Gose. I could see someone preferring him because of his plus plus speed or the fact that we have more pro data (even if that data isn’t really all that great). But really, both players are good because of their projectability, not because of stats they’ve produced. So whether Springer could put up a .763 OPS in AA or not, isn’t ALL that relevant.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
No my point is you said Springer had less questions about his bat than Gose
I followed this to a logical conclusion. Unless you think he could produce the same last year in AA as Gose, then there are more questions about his bat than Gose’s bat.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2011 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
And it is not like I am super high on Gose, BTW
I have him at 33 on my list.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'm all for ARLs
But they don’t apply to what we are talking about. Unless we are just having a semantic argument, and you believe EVERY player that would be worse than Gose was at AA last year would by definition have more questions about his bat, no matter what the age. But I actually don’t think that is what you are saying, and we aren’t actually just having a semantic debate about what “questions about his bat” means. And so your argument doesn’t really work. You are only stating that his ARL is better or would be better. But college prospects are at an inherent disadvantage in that department especially before they have any pro data.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
I would say Rendon would have done as well
But that is about it. Springer, Mahtook, and Spangenberg are in the next group of college bats for me, and not that far behind Gose. I just think you cannot make an argument about Gose having more questions about his bat than Springer right now. If we do a John Sickles thought experiment, and had Gose go to college and be drafted this year, with his tools and translating his pro performance to college ball, I would have to think he would have been more highly thought of than Springer.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think it is the exact opposite
Springer gets hurt because he doesn’t have as much pro data.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Age & Level-of-comptetion
“There isn’t an "age issue" with someone coming from college.”
Springer benefits from being a more advanced all-round player because he’s had more experience than high-school draftees; he loses points because he’s older. You can’t take the one without the other.
Looking at the issues more closely, age & level of competition considerations are closely intertwined, but they are separable. A 22yr-old simply doesn’t have the same potential as a 21yr-old, if their present skills are the same. There are also issues about succeeding at higher levels of play, and transitioning from college to high-A (which is where I think Springer could optimistically start) is a level adjustment which is more unpredictable than the jump from the MWL or the Sally. So Gose does have both an age advantage and a level-of-competition advantage.
And therefor less questions about his bat
And much fewer questions about his defense, which has been ignored in this debate.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
A 22yr-old simply doesn’t have the same potential as a 21yr-old, if their present skills are the same.
This is absolutely false by any measure.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
It is also a strawman
Because we have no clue whether Springer would be better than a .763 OPS hitter last year in AA. I could say, he’d be 100 points better, so obviously Springer is the better prospect. You could say, he’d be 100 points worse, so obviously he’s the worse prospect.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
The line of reasoning is off on many levels.
You can take a look at both guys, and easily decide Gose is better than Springer or vice versa. My point is both guys have some issues that might prevent them from reaching their ceilings. Gose’s is a strike zone recognition problem that apparently Springer does not have. Springer’s is more mechanical, though we don’t know it will cause him problems adjusting as he moves up the system. Defensively, Gose is faster, but not necessarily better right now. But again, I like Gose, and Springer isn’t even up for a vote in this runoff.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 8, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
"though we don’t know it will cause him problems adjusting as he moves up the system"
So how does he have less questions about his bat than Gose?
by cookiedabookie on Dec 8, 2011 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
umm, what?
Do you need me to throw in an “all other things being equal” or what? Because the average player improves until they peak in their mid-to-late twenties, then declines.
All other things being equal
Meaning what? Meaning they are the exact same type of player, they’ve had the exact same type of baseball experience? Obviously going to college or not blows up the all things being equal thing.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 9, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly. If you want to make the case that college players have more latent potential than similar players who have professional experience, I think I’d agree with you. So that may be a countervailing factor, but it doesn’t take away from the principle that relative youth is an advantage.
Oh sure
I generally agree that ARL is a real factor. But we can’t say that EVERY 21 year old that outperforms a 22 year old at the same level, even if we concede that both their true current talent levels are reflected in those stats, DEFINITELY has more potential than the 22 year old. There are countless exceptions to that, to the point that is isn’t even a rule. It is generally a better better to go with the guy 1 year younger, sure.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 9, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
This is why I made explicit the implicit condition in my original statement: all else being equal.
These debates would be a lot easier if instead of saying “This is absolutely false by any measure” you’d actually note the qualification you want to make. My point is that relative youth is always an advantage for a prospect, not (as I would hope would be obvious) that it is the only thing that effects how much potential improvement a player has.
Well
actually i completely disagree with your (original) original statement. you need to completely start over. honestly there is no way i could pull out what you really meant to say other than by having a similarly long discussion just to get to what you meant to say in the first place.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 9, 2011 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
...
you don’t need to completely start over AT THIS POINT. my original response (the one where i quote you), was intended to convey my feelings that if you believe what you say, there is no where further we can go with the discussion. obviously we were able to continue it in a roundabout way and finally get to what you intended to say.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 9, 2011 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
You actually don’t and didn’t disagree with my original statement. Contextually, I explicitly said I was pulling apart different relevant factors, such that I was examining those factors in isolation, and hence holding other factors constant. Should I have been clearer and more explicit? Absolutely. But it was only the out-of-context statement that you actually disagreed with, not the meaning the statement had within its context.
I’m sorry to be so critical because I do enjoy our exchanges overall , but you do tend to interpret others in the least reasonable possible way, which simply doesn’t lead to strong communication. Seek first to understand, &c, &c.
by gabrielsyme on Dec 9, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Here's the FULL post
"There isn’t an “age issue” with someone coming from college."
Springer benefits from being a more advanced all-round player because he’s had more experience than high-school draftees; he loses points because he’s older. You can’t take the one without the other.
Looking at the issues more closely, age & level of competition considerations are closely intertwined, but they are separable. A 22yr-old simply doesn’t have the same potential as a 21yr-old, if their present skills are the same. There are also issues about succeeding at higher levels of play, and transitioning from college to high-A (which is where I think Springer could optimistically start) is a level adjustment which is more unpredictable than the jump from the MWL or the Sally. So Gose does have both an age advantage and a level-of-competition advantage.
The context is pretty clear. If your conclusion was, “so Gose seems to have an age advantage and maybe a level-of-competition advantage, but in this case those factors don’t really give us great insight as to who has more potential,” then I would have thought twice about the rest of the context of your full post. But there were only slight or heavily veiled references to “all things being equal” considering that all things are FAR from equal in the case of Gose vs Springer (other than the fact that they would profile somewhat similarly in theory).
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 10, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Bell > Springer > Gose
Pie in the sky could really apply to all these guys, more so Gose because of his professional track record. Yes, we’ve reached that point in prospect-dom where the term “prospecting” really is apt. Seems that Gose has more in the way of the Hype Machine, but the flaws are still there. Give me the best high school hitter in a loaded draft class who is years younger over the “might learn to hit” Gose. Not a huge fan of MLE’s, but I do wonder what a sub.260 BA translates to in the show. Guys who strike out nearly 1/3rd of the time in AA and the AFL (Noted hitters league) don’t often have great success in the majors.
I realize the ship had probably already sailed on this vote, but this will end up being my least favorite selection on any of these lists if Gose is selected.
Pirates
fan here and I gotta go with Gose. There is something to be said about being fairly close to the majors. Including defensive value, it’s quite possible Gose and Bell have similar ceilings, and assuming that, how a guy who’s only two years older, but just finished an acceptable season at AA, going to be ranked ahead of a guy who hasn’t seen a professional pitch?
Same reason I have Marte (who I like better than Gose actually; I know average is an overrated stat by the mainstream, but sometimes you have to be able to just hit for average; Marte has in abundance and Gose hasn’t and yes I understand the age difference) ahead of Bell.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 8, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
a high schooler who didn't play high school ball
who’s ceiling is stories below bell!?!
by DeathSpeculum on Dec 9, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
Swihart is on the older side like Bell
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