Blue Jays Trade Top Prospect Nestor Molina to White Sox for Sergio Santos
by John Sickels on Dec 6, 2011 2:35 PM EST
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The Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays announced a trade, the Sox sending closer Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for top pitching prospect Nestor Molina.
Molina was a subject of close discussion here at Minor League Ball last week. A Venezuelan signed by the Blue Jays in 2006, Molina was a fairly anonymous middle reliever with a decent arm entering 2011. He's a lot more than that now, thanks to an excellent season that saw him dominate the High-A Florida State and Double-A Eastern Leagues as a starter. He went 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA and an outstanding 115/14 K/BB ratio in 108 innings for Dunedin, then posted a miniscule 0.41 ERA in five starts for New Hampshire with a 33/2 K/BB in just 22 innings. Keep reading to see a scouting report.
Molina has a solid 90-94 MPH fastball and keeps it low in the zone, picking up grounders. He also has a very good splitter. His slider is still a work-in-progress according to scouts, but his delivery adds deception and helps his stuff play up. His statistics last year were simply spectacular, and it is unusual to see a relief-to-starting conversion turn out this positively. He wasn't some old guy tricking people; he was just 22 last year. If anything, Molina still doesn't get the respect he deserves as a prospect. I currently have him rated as a Grade B+ prospect.
This seems like a good deal for both sides to me. Many scouts think he should return to relief, but if I were the White Sox I would give him a chance to move forward as a starter given his performance in 2011.
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"Many scouts think he should return to relief, but if I were the White Sox I would give him a chance to move forward as a starter given his performance in 2011."
Not to mention the Sox have next to nothing when it comes to starting pitching in their system.
but Chris Sale, Addison Reed, David Holmberg, Jacob Petricka, Gregory Infante
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 7, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
already in the majors and getting a shot next year, inside track to be the closer, NOT EVEN ON THE TEAM, fastball and not much else, and reliever
Here’s hoping Sale is anywhere as good in the rotation as he is in the pen. They’re going to need it.
i thought
that was part of the joke
though i could be wrong
by blue bulldog on Dec 7, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
He is immediately #1 prospect for Chicago
Also, since they have Addison Reed, they should probably groom him as a closer and try to keep Molina in the rotation. Also think Sale should be given the opportunity to start.
"When the going gets tough, the tough get going."
this.
it really makes no sense to try and do anything other than that…why trade a closer for another relief pitcher, especially one like Santos who is signed to such a team friendly deal.
by James Westfall on Dec 6, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
WELL...
While the Jay’s had a dozen or so high end starters in the minors it was widely accepted in particular they had FIVE very high end YOUNG starters: Hutchison, Syndergaard, Nicolini, Norris, and Molina. They’ve just traded the oldest, Molina (22), for a closer with the "best slider in the show," over whom they’ll have 6 years of control!
AA continues to be – without question – the master of the dance – the Silent Assassin! He is clearly reading from a play book other GM’s didn’t even know exists.
it sounds like
Boras telling people that fielder is an extremely agile first baseman, yeah right
I don't always like to tweet, but when I do it's @HouseOfTheBB
And when more than 140 characters are needed, I write at HouseOfTheBluebird.com
by Bluebirdz on Dec 6, 2011 5:58 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Anyone else feel like Kenny Williams should have gotten more for Santos?
Even if you think Molina is a SP down the road, a guy with Santos’ track record and incredibly team-friendly contract should have netted more.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I've never been fully convinced on Wang's prospect research
But, along those lines, the $30 million figure only comes in play if Santos (essentially) dominates during the course of his Toronto career. The Blue Jays are only committed to $8.25 million over the next 3 years. Give Santos that same 1.5 WAR at the current dollar rate and by the end of 2014 he’ll be worth over $14 million in surplus value… that’s a lot of value left on the table by just taking Molina.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Yeah
Molina’s a nice prospect, but I wouldn’t have traded Santos straight up for him. Even if you’re very high on him like John (and presumably KW), they could’ve and should’ve gotten more.
yeah I agree, I think they should have shopped around.
Molina is still a pretty good piece to get. I hope it works out for the white sox
there was actually some word passed around earlier, I guess
The Red Sox apparently were disappointed that they didn’t get a crack at pulling Santos from the White Sox.
I guess their front office should be less concerned about slandering former Red Sox and more concerned with putting a team together
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
haha, well done guys
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Santos
I’ve never been a huge fan of Santos but I don’t want that to cloud my judgement…so let me ask this:
If the deal were for Jason Motte, and not Sergio Santos, would there be this big of an uproar? For some reason, I think the asnswer is ‘no’, but I think Motte easily has the better numbers in the bigs.
have you seen Santos pitch?
he literally hadn’t pitched since 1999 until he was converted from SS a few years ago. His arm is a cannon and his slider if filthy. Plus you have to figure he still has room to improve considering his relative inexperience and he has a “young” arm since he didn’t pick up pitching until he was 25
I have seen him - Spring Training 2010
The slider is fantastic, no doubt about that, but I just don’t think Santos will develop the command to be an elite RP. In that case, I’ll take the SP prospect and his 180-200 IP over a 60 IP RP.
I don't want to get into a tit for tat
but there are a lot of RPs that have had elite seasons, but who I wouldn’t consider an elite RP.
plus sliders eat elbows
so santos uber-dominant pitch is a bigger injury risk than a fastball pitcher…but i dont think that will come into play considering the length of the deal…i just wouldnt want to get him after the blue jays were done
by James Westfall on Dec 7, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
not a fastball pitcher?
Average FB velocity in his two major league seasons is 95.9 and 95.3.
Velocity isn't everything.
Speaking as a Sox fan who has watched him plenty, he’s a slider pitcher far and away. He doesn’t put away a ton of guys with his fastball and doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses with it. If his slider is off, he’s a pretty average pitcher. Now that slider is phenomenal, but like I said, when he can’t find the grip things get interesting.
fwiw, I've watched him a ton too
I don’t talk much about it around here, but I’m a born and raised Sox fan from the northwest suburbs (yes, I know, I’m seen as a traitor to the rest of my family).
His slider is clearly his out pitch, but as a pen guy it doesn’t need to get too complicated for him. Look at Brad Lidge for how long a guy with velocity and an over-reliance on his breaking ball can last. Not saying that Santos is Lidge, of course.
Agreed.
All I’m saying is I think you would be wrong to characterize him as a “fastball pitcher”.
Yeah, they don't look too kindly on White Sox fans out in Arlington Heights...
Though I did have a good friend who was that indeed…is that you, Paul? lol
re
some other poster had something that Santos has the fastest “flight time” on his fastball in baseball. Flight time as in measuring the time the batter has when the pitch is released and when it crosses the plate.
Thats basically saying he has the fastest fastball in the game, mph aside.
I’d call that a plus plus pitch.
As for the slider; Santos has only been pitching 3 years. The guy literally didn’t pitch an inning from his soph year of high school until 2009. I wouldn’t be so worried about his arm going as I would someone that’s been throwing 100+ innings a year since he was 16
I've read that article...
and while interesting and making perfect sense, the hitter will tell you how good a pitch is. The fact that Santos has plus velocity and releases his pitches closer to the plate (thereby increasing the effective velocity) would seem to be a huge advantage. However if you look at his pitch values for his fastball so far, they haven’t been great (nowhere near his slider). It’s a straight pitch and it plays that way.
I wouldn't trade Motte for Molina either...
Is your point that people are overrating Santos? Why do you think that’s the case? He’s been nothing but outstanding for the last 2 years and is under control for a long, long time.
Yep, that was the point
I’m honestly don’t know if folks really do overrate Santos, but it sure seems that way to me. Maybe I really underrate him, as I do many RPs. Again, he’s got the raw stuff, but I threw Motte’s name out there because he fits a very similar mold.
I think Santos projects much better than Motte
Motte throws hard and that is about it, while Santos has a plus-plus breaking ball. Santos is also clearly a superior athlete, I like his chances of sustaining success much more than Motte’s.
+1
i agree with you. i think the trade looks fairly close on paper, and personally, given 50/50, i’d rather bet that Molina ends up with a higher surplus value than Santos does these next few years
not sure this is as clear a win for AA as a lot of ppl in the media seem to be making it out to be
by blue bulldog on Dec 6, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
I know some folks really like Molina, and I don't fault them, but
I have a hard time seeing that it’s more likely than not he is more valuable than Santos. He’d have to stick as an SP and be a pretty good one. Even if you’re a fan of Molina you have to think that is far from a certainty.
Disconnect
I think that a lot of people tend to vastly underrate the value of a plus short reliever because most people who dabble in sabermetrics haven’t come up with a way to properly assess relief pitchers in terms of realistic value. In fact, I feel that relief pitchers of all shapes/size/role are undersold by most metrics out there & the realistic value of most of these performers seems difficult to capture &/or quantify. (This is my opinion of course – I’m near certain others would fight this train of thought tooth & nail)
I think those who don’t see this as a great trade for Toronto are likely in the above camp. Obviously, Nestor Molina could blossom into a bonkos #2 starter or a knockout closer but considering Santos’ talent, Toronto’s major league organizational needs & the team’s surplus of young, upside laden arms, this deal makes almost too much sense for Toronto. I’m surprised that Santos didn’t bear more talent for the White Sox actually.
i actually agree
that relievers are undersold by most metrics. in fact, i’m also of the opinion that most prospect rankings undersell future relievers too.
however, relievers like Santos who throw that hard, and throw that many sliders, worry me a little. i’m not convinced he’s going to stay healthy/productive in the long run. i can’t emphasize enough how few relievers do. i guess effectively, for me, Santos’s surplus value is capped around $10 million, and may be less than that.
i probably also think the probability of Molina turning into a SP as higher than most.
by blue bulldog on Dec 7, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
On what basis do you contend that current metrics vastly undervalue relievers?
I’m in the camp that relievers are over-valued, especially closers and that GM’s who have understood this have generally out-performed their rivals. Closers generally pitch in low-leverage circumstances, brought in with no one on base and needing just three outs and more often than not a two or three run lead. If any relievers are undervalued it would be guys who pitch in higher leverage situations earlier in the game.
But I’m also not dogmatic. Explain the basis for your views.
100% agree with this.
While a great bullpen isn’t without value, it is in my opinion much less important than starting pitching and position players.
In terms of WAR, if he stays healthy and can stick in a rotation as a starter...
he’ll almost certainly provide more value than Santos. He won’t have to be a star to do that.
Sox in rebuilding mode?
this time last year they were talking pennant, are they now scrapping what they can?
I know I have to opportunity that most poster don’t have living here in AZ and I can literally watch baseball from Feb-Nov (Spring Training through the AzFL). I have taken particular interest in Santos because he was a Dback 1st round pick as a SS years ago before we gave up on him and he converted to the mound. I’ve watched him in person and in bullpen sessions and his arm is nuclear. He has what scouts call an explosive fastball that seems to pick up as it reaches the plate. On top of that his slider is just filthy.
I will certainly watch Nestor come Spring, but I would certainly not have traded Santos considering all factors including his contract
"nuclear"
Good description.
What I don’t get is, if the White Sox were willing to trade Santos, why deal him now rather than 3-5 weeks from now? There are a lot more teams looking for late-inning relief help than there are available closers, and even the guys who get signed are going to see WAY more money than Santos is getting at any point in the next 6 years. If the Sox wait, worst case is that they still get Molina, just a few weeks from now, maybe with some sweetener. Best case, they get a Mike Adams-esque return.
how were they not going to get Molina?
You really think he was going to be traded elsewhere or otherwise made unavailable sometime in the next several weeks?
i have no idea what AA would have done. obviously he was willing to trade him. stands to reason that he was willing to trade him to anyone who offered an acceptable package. so, yeah, obviously the worst case is they don’t get molina. kind of silly to argue otherwise.
considering
1) Lots of teams seem to think Molina is a reliever in the end
2) Santos is a unique player, a closer with six years of team control
I have to believe the White Sox were the ones with the leverage.
I think this belief that Molina is a reliever long-term is being totally overblown.
While he only has two pitches that one might describe as “plus”, he’s got various other offerings that have potential which he commands well. Looks and sounds to me like he’s a starter until proven otherwise.
I was only talking about the perception
There seems to be a lot of doubt about his future role, whether you think he is a starter or a reliever. That would seem likely to have an effect on both his trade market and his trade value.
you'll have to ask the people who have come to that conclusion, clearly
Could be the Jays talking him up as a potential future closer just a few days ago. Could be that he only has one truly plus pitch (assuming you believe the optimistic reports on his splitter and not the “four average pitches” types of reports). Could be the questions about his delivery. Could be things I don’t know about.
Those are all possible reasons as to why organizations have doubt about his future role.
Not trying to get into an argument, but I think there is a human nature to read scouting reports and reviews by these "experts" and take this stuff as gospel.
larry can probably speak to this a bit more (we’ve been having some pretty extensive discussions about this on the Sox blog).
1) In reference to the “closer” comment. I think you’re taking that out of context. Farrell, I believe, was posed with the question of who in the system could be a potential closer long-term. One of his answers was that Molina could be a possibility. He wasn’t asked which one of his minor league pitchers would probably fail at starting and would need to be moved to relief. He was simply stating that he could see Molina succeeding in such a role. At least that’s how I read it. And this could clearly be said for a TON of pitching prospects in the minors, especially ones that have relief experience in the past.
2) The “plus pitch” thing I think is being overblown. Is it true that he probably only has one “plus pitch” as ID’d by scouts? Yeah, that’s what I’m hearing. But he’s also got a fastball that he cuts and runs in on righthanders, a change with potential and a breaking ball that is apparently improving. I haven’t heard the terms “show me pitch” or “fringe” mentioned with any of these. Word is they are all average offerings. All of which he apparently has VERY good control and command of. This last part is big in my mind. A slider doesn’t have to be Santos quality to be effective. If the pitcher can throw it for strikes in any count and command it to both sides of the plate, it can be an effective pitch.
Just my two cents and things that I think people need to consider before jumping to conclusions.
who said I was jumping to conclusions?
You presume much. I do agree with you to a certain extent re: scouting reports – as I’m sure you’ve recognized, even most of the people who at varying times advocated for a stronger sabermetric component to prospect analysis have shifted (in some cases HEAVILY) towards relying on scouting data. This is because scouting data tends to be highly contextualized and access to it is much more restricted than access to statistics, and information is power. Everybody loves to be an authority, and from a saber perspective, most people just aren’t able to A) crunch numbers well enough to make a contribution or B) write about number crunching well enough to make a contribution. So I’m definitely on board with you to this point.
I’ll also agree that Molina’s scouting reports aren’t really bad by any means. The one thing that would really concern me is, oddly enough, command. Command is astonishingly difficult to project. Obviously it’s worked for him so far, but it’s not hard to think that he might just be really good at setting up low-quality batters and putting them away with a consistent offspeed pitch. There is definitely some necessary conflation between quality of a pitch and command of a pitch, but only some – pitch quality tends to get reflected in the numbers sooner or later.
What would be safest to project, then? My personal feeling would be to split the difference – there’s not a really compelling reason why he should be a reliever, but at the same time we really need to learn more about him and see how his command stacks up against quality competition. If it wavers at all, we’ll have a real good idea, real fast, about just how good his stuff is. Mid-rotation projection for now?
Didn't mean to imply that you were specifically jumping to conclusions, just a lot of people in reference to this trade.
I wouldn’t disagree with much of what you’ve said. I’d only point out that this could all be said for almost EVERY pitcher at this point in their development. He burned through High-A and made hitters look silly in AA for 22 or however many innings.
Is there a chance that he flames out at AAA against hitters who make him work a little more? Sure. Is there a chance that he never further develops any of his secondary pitches and ends up in the pen as a strictly fastball/splitter guy? Certainly. But you could make that case for almost any pitcher at AA.
If he had never been a reliever, I don’t think anyone would be questioning his ability to stick as a starter at this point. We shall see, I could really see this guy making a big jump this coming season. I think a mid-rotation starter is probably a pretty good bet, with the chance to be a #2 if everything works out or a #5 or pen guy if it doesn’t.
pitcher extension
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/04/12/fastballs.trackman/index.html
check that article out on why he has an “explosive” fastball
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
very interesting
based off that chart Santos has the fastest fastball in the game based off “flight time”.
I had no idea. I knew just by watching he had a special arm, but that is impressive
I remember seeing this
At the time I was interesting in how Purcey was on the list.
by Jesse Taylor on Dec 6, 2011 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yes they are
I saw a tweet this afternoon:
RT @DKnobler: White Sox rebuilding: If they get what they want, Danks, Floyd, Quentin, Beckham all will be gone by opening day
by mlbtraderumors via twitter 3:43 PM
My question you guys would be, what do you all think about maybe Beckham at 2nd base for the jays? Would probably have to offer another pick, but I could see it being in the works.
by Jesse Taylor on Dec 6, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
I definitely think the Jays would be in on Beckham if he were available
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 7, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Yea I can see AA working on this one myself as soon as I saw that tweet.
Assuming they (the jays) favor him from a scouting level.
by Jesse Taylor on Dec 7, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
Braves on Quentin
if he didn’t cost too much.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 7, 2011 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps
I’m not one to question Alex Anthopolous (a fool’s errand, that) if he thinks otherwise, but I wonder if he might think that Gordon Beckham’s ceiling isn’t that substantial. I’m of the belief that Beckham sort of is what he is and that’s a fringy everyday player. He’s barely 25 & far from expensive though..who the hell knows and would anything Anthopolous is able to pull off surprise anybody?
His ceiling isn't substantial?
He’s already a well above average 2nd baseman defensively. His “ceiling” is that with 20+ homer power, a doubles machine and .300 hitter with plus plate discipline. Obviousl that hasn’t all gone according to plan so far, but that was his ceiling coming up. Has that changed? I guess you could say so. But if someone were to get him back on track to where he was in 2009, you’ve got yourself probably one of the best 2nd basemen in the league.
beckham
maybe they can straighten out his swing like they did with bautista
by James Westfall on Dec 7, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Blue Jays and White Sox are a perfect trading match...
Sox have the type of underachieving, but very talented, player that AA loves in Beckham and the Jays are full of solid prospects that the Sox need to build their lackluster farm system. I don’t see why Beckham isn’t a possibility for AA and the Blue Jays.
Would be a smart move by AA
But KW would be selling low and Beckham is cheap and young. So I would hang onto him unless really blown away.
my impression of KW
is that he loves to sell low
but then, i’m heavily skewed by the Hudson/Holmberg for EJax trade
by blue bulldog on Dec 7, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
actually, I'd say the opposite is true, he loves to sell high
The problem is that he thinks he is selling high when in fact he is selling low.
and the swisher deal for a bag of balls
unlucky season for swisher and KW didn’t hesitate to spin him
That and Swisher basically alientated the entired locker room.
Not defening the trade, but it wasn’t just that he underperformed statistically. It was that majority of the team did NOT want him back.
Exactly why I don't understand Beckham's name coming up in these "rebuilding" talks.
He’s exactly the kind of player they should hold onto.
Not sure how you choose the order for your top-20 lists John.
But you might want to wait a bit on the Sox. I have a feeling half of their top-10 isn’t even in the system yet.
Molina will probably be a reliever
Molina has a solid fastball that he locates very well at 90-91 typically and a splitter that misses bats. His secondaries seem to be quite bad from what I’ve read.
While it’s possible Santos will get injured due to his propensity for sliders he is a very effective RP with a very friendly contract. Molina on the other hand carries all the risk of a AA pitcher without great scouting reports. He has all the risk and not that much upside. Personally I think too many get carried away by his numbers.
it's tough to say, honestly
But I think you outline the issues pretty well. It’s a little strange to see so much talk about Santos’ volatility as compared to Molina’s . . .Santos is 28, has two years of quality major league work, and isn’t expected to pitch more than 60-70 innings in a season, while Molina is 23 in January, favors a splitter as his best pitch (and we know what those do to arms), has 20 innings above A ball, and is expected to take on a starter’s workload. Which of these guys sounds more likely to fall off a cliff performance-wise?
That said, it sounds like Molina’s stuff is workable, and in the White Sox org he’s likely to get plenty of chances at developing his repertoire.
regarding the pseudoscience on the splitter,
don cooper has long been of the opinion that it’s bullshit. another reason the white sox probably view this trade differently than you.
I don't think I've seen a single report that describes Molina's secondary stuff as "quite bad".
I think “average” would be a more apt description, though I’d love to see a link if you have one.
i remember the last white sox pitching prospect keith law said didn't have a slider.
chris sale. then, magically, less than two months after the draft, he has a plus plus slider. color me unimpressed with “analysts” who are too lazy, or too stubborn, to update their scouting reports, acquire sufficient information or see players themselves and, instead, cover up that deficiency with snark, vitriol and contempt.
by larry on Dec 9, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
fair enough
he does hit more than he misses so I wouldn’t totally writeoff his opinion. The difficulty with Law is that you don’t know if he is basing his analysis off recent scouts opinions or based on some outdated report.
for prospects outside the top 100-150 i would write it off.
let’s be clear about what law is. he’s a national writer writing for a national audience. unlike sickels or goldstein or some others, he doesn’t do detailed top prospects lists for teams. that’s a rather important exercise if you’re going to opine on prospects. i would guess that law spent approximately one minute total thinking about nestor molina prior to the day he was traded.
law is viewed as credible because he comments on top prospects, which is what people at espn are reading him for. and he does about as good a job as anyone on that, i guess. when someone questions his analysis of a team’s prospects, he throws back the non sequitur of “yup, i hate your team’s prospects.” and he gets away with that because the vast majority of people reading that are not conversant in a given team’s prospects past the top players.
I also write off his opinion of anyone that breaks out or suddenly declines
As usually he doesn’t get fresh scouting info. I still read his articles as there are some interesting comments to be found. When he attempts to show his brilliance, cooking knowledge, etc. then I laugh.
When he attempts to show his brilliance, cooking knowledge, etc. then I laugh.
Why? His cooking knowledge is probably more reliable than his opinion on a lot of prospects.
by charles wallace on Dec 11, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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