The Winter Meetings Thread
by mrkupe on Dec 6, 2011 1:06 PM EST
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PrintSince we don't have one, and we might as well have one, I figured I would just get it over with and make one. Discuss all the goings-on, what teams should do, what they're not doing, the possible role of prospects in transactions . . .
The Blue Jays have acquired Sergio Santos from the White Sox for Nestor Molina. Santos is a killer pickup, surprise surprise out of the AA regime (can we just, you know, not let these guys trade with anybody already?). He's already devastatingly effective, he's only getting better as he learns how to actually pitch, and he's under team control for a good few years yet. Needless to say, whoa. Congrats Blue Jays fans, you just hit the jackpot.
As for the White Sox, the rebuild is on. Molina obviously is an interesting prospect, and one would presume that the White Sox think of him as a starter first if they were willing to swap him for Santos, a more known quantity in the pen. This might not be the last we hear from the White Sox at the meetings with virtually the entire team up for trade, including two quality starters in Danks and Floyd. Of course, as they apparently asked for both Manny Banuelos and Jesus Montero from the Yankees in a deal to acquire Danks, this all might be much easier said than done . . .
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Addison Reed
Hopefully the Santos deal opens up the door for Reed to close by June or July, I expect Thornton will be THE man to start 2012.
I'm
really intrigued by what the Nats are gonna do. We have the Wilson rumors, some rumblings about Fielder, and now this
The Nationals are “fixated” on leaving the Winter Meetings with a new center fielder, a team source told Pete Kerzel of MASNSports.com.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 6, 2011 2:07 PM EST reply actions
That
should be blockquoted..
The Nationals are "fixated" on leaving the Winter Meetings with a new center fielder, a team source told Pete Kerzel of MASNSports.com.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 6, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
did you have McCutchen in mind?
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Dec 6, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Not
particularly. I actually was thinking more Jose Tabata or Alex Presley for a marginal return. From the Nats point of view though, I think they’d rather just go big or go home, and Tabata and Presley aren’t those things.
As far as Cutch, I’m not sure the Nats could make a fair offer without Harper being included, and they would be crazy to do that. Interestingly enough, I think a decent argument could be made that their values (since Harper still has 0 hits above AA, and despite his unquestionably massive ceiling, still doesn’t have the “floor” Cutch does, since Cutch did put up 5.8 WAR last year) are similar enough that strictly in a mathematical sense it MIGHT make sense.
Despite that, the PR disaster in Washington would be beyond imaginable. Since Harper won’t be part of any package, I don’t know what the Nats could offer. Remember, Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin, and Purke can’t even be traded as PTBNL because PTBNL must be named and traded within 6 months, and the 2011 draftees aren’t eligible to be traded until they signed, which is early June at the earliest (since that was when the draft happened). 6 months from now is early May so it doesn’t work.
I guess the Nats could get it down if they offered one of Espinosa, Ramos, or Zimmermann, plusmore, but that makes little sense from their standpoint.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 6, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
my guess is that the price for McCutchen would be too high
I think a Rays-Nats trade for B.J. Upton makes entirely too much sense for both sides if they can just figure out the particulars.
Potential problem for the Nats: the centerpiece of such a trade from the Rays’ perspective almost certainly has to be A.J. Cole, doesn’t it?
Ya
it would be I’d think, and I think that’s a good price for both sides,
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 6, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Considering that Upton
has hit in the .240s or lower the past 3 years, had an OBP in the .330’s or lower the last 3 years and a slugging percentage .430 or lower the past 3 years, I wouldn’t be willing to give up that much for Upton.
by Looney4baseball on Dec 7, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Not sure how they match up as trading partners. Rays don’t need pitching or middle infield (areas of surplus for the Nats), but do need catching and a first baseman. Would an Upton for Morse trade work?
Upton bWAR/162 last two years: 4.1
Morse bWAR/162 last two years: 3.6
Morse could see his value go up if moved to 1B (less negative defensive WAR), making it a pretty even challenge trade. Or there could be other small parts added.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 7, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
If I'm Tampa...
I’d want a more substantial piece than Morse. Maybe add Derek Norris to the mix…
Morse and Norris for Upton
I think that is pretty fair, I think the Rays would be okay with it, not sure if the Nats would (depends on if they overvalue Morse). Perhaps a C+, A-ball lotto ticket back to Nats if they want more?
by cookiedabookie on Dec 7, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
The Marlins have been a major surprise so far...
It looks like they’re pouring their money into their lineup, with Reyes already in the bag, and rumors of Pujols. There’s no way they would make such a ballsy investment without beefing up their pitching staff as well. But if they can’t afford to sign a SP they’d be looking for cost controlled SP like say Gio Gonzalez. Do they have the prospects to make a deal like that happen? I imagine any deal would include Gaby Sanchez….
Any thoughts?
no
Gio is apparently available but it looks like the A’s want close-to-ready OF talent, and the Marlins don’t have that. The Marlins’ system is pretty lacking at this point.
I could maybe see lesser trades to build some depth in the rotation, but I haven’t seen anything that looks like a match for a premium piece.
Gaby Sanchez
I’m not sure why this guy gets brought up as a significant piece in discussions for major trade acquisitions, like Gio, etc. – not trying to pick on you, okteds, I’ve seen his name brought up elsewhere too.
Gaby is a 1B who doesn’t slug .450, much less .500, and can’t handle 3B, C, or likely the OF. His OPS is sub-.800 for both 2010 & 2011. He’s also 28 y.o. so not much more projection to be made of him – he is what he is, and I don’t see him as much more than a bench bat.
White Sox-Yankees trade
If the Sox want Montero and Banuelos, they better be willing to give up Danks and Floyd. Well, maybe throw in Hughes to the Sox as well.
Really?
I love Montero, but Danks and Floyd for Montero straight up is a no-brainer to me. Much easier to find a DH than two #2/3 arms on reasonable contracts.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 7, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great Job Double A!!!
The Jays keep making shrewd deals. I like Molina a lot but Santos should give the Jays a top closer at a very low cost.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 6, 2011 2:49 PM EST reply actions
this is a ridiculously good return for a largely unheralded prospect with 20 innings above A ball
Two years of closing experience, mid-to-high 90s fastball, crazy good slider, and SIX years of team control at a low cost?
A pretty good argument can be made that Santos is the BEST closing option, given stuff, results, and contract, in the game. In other words, as easy as it is to like Molina . . .trading him at this point for Santos is robbery, and that’s putting it politely.
Why six years of team control?
I thought it would be less then that. That is crazy!
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 6, 2011 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
here you go
From http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-white-sox.html
3 years/$8.25M (2012-14), plus 2015-17 club options
signed extension with Chicago White Sox 9/30/11
12:$1M, 13:$2.75M, 14:$3.75M, 15:$6M club option, 16:$8M club option, 17:$8.75M club option ($0.75M buyouts for each option)
Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?
Holy shit
Why would you deal him for Molina? Molina is a good prospect but not a great one. This seems like a fleecing by the Jays with his contract.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 6, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
He's also a bit of unknown
2011 was his third full year as a pitcher, and his walk rate (both in the minors and in the bigs) is a little worrisome. The same hazards exist here as they do for other converts – Motte, e.g. – until they have several years of pitching under their belts. Also, 2011 was his age 28 season, but with so few years being a pitcher, that may not matter as much. Still, I don’t think it’s quite the fleecing that you might think.
Sickels has him as #2 prospect in Jays system.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think Sickels was too high on Molina
I like him but the Jays had a lot better prospects.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 6, 2011 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
That is where I slotted him around
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 6, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Who cares if he was second or twentieth?
It looks like a coup for Toronto. I like Nestor Molina & hope he does well, but this was a fabulous deal.
its not 6 years of control...
its 3+3, if you decline the option on his 2015 season because his arm fell off, then you dont get 16 and 17 if he’s healthy again lol…
relievers are highly volatile, the list of contracts for relievers that go beyond three years is overwhelmingly bust heavy, im not saying he wont be worth it, but its just as likely he’s nota 6M 8M or 8.75M reliever in years 4/5/6 and he might get to year 3 healthy and then blow up during one of the years he’s getting paid more….
im just saying that this isnt without risk because of the nature of relief pitchers
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
Isn't it 3+1+1+1? They don't have to pick all 3 up at once right?
That’s the whole advantage of the option years. If his arm blows up in the 4th year, you don’t have to play him the 5th and 6th. If it blows out in the 5th year you don’t have to pay the 6th.
I just don’t get your point. If we say a guy has 6 years of team control left, its not like the team can just not pay him 1 arb year and then get him back the next. Why would we treat 3 guaranteed years and 3 option years differently?
that'd be like saying the White Sox only have 2 years of control of Chris Sale
That’s really not how it works. Santos’ contract allows a team the right to control where he plays for the next 6 years. If said team relinquishes that right so be it, but ultimately the choice is still in their hands.
Obviously there is always risk when it comes to relief pitchers, but Santos has very low mileage on his arm and is very athletic – there is a pretty good chance that he’s going to be a useful player (and playing at a level well below market value) for the new few years.
er, I said that last part wrong
He’s likely to provide value well in excess of what he is actually getting paid. That is what I was trying to say.
Nestor Molina
I guess he’s going to debut at #1 in the White Sox top 20?
sure looks that way
Not a whole lot left in that system, although if there are other trades that might change things.
Addison Reed at least gives him a run for his money
Bullpen Banter
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Molina is #1
and it isn’t even close
most underrated prospect in the game
I agree with Molina being #1
But I don’t think he’s highly underrated.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 6, 2011 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Slowey to the Rockies for PTBL or cash
so lets see, they now have Chacin, Pomeranz, White, Gardner, Slowey, Chatwood, Esmil Rogers, Juan Nicaiso, Peter Tago, Christian Friedrich, Tyler Matzek, Chad Bettis, and i’m sure others…… nice job of stockpiling young arms Rox.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 6, 2011 6:12 PM EST reply actions
yep, Edwar Cabrera.
but yeah, it’s an impressive list of young arms which should keep the Rox in the thick of things for a long while.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 6, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
interesting tidbit
Dodgers assistant GM and noted MLB draft Maestro Logan White is interviewing for the Astros’ GM position.
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