New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects for 2012

Sheesh. Didn’t realize Montero has crushed the ball that hard, although obviously the sample size was incredibly small.

I almost had a stroke when I saw manny a B. Rank betances a c for all I care, but man Manny doesn’t get respect. Small pitchers can have careers too. He experienced control problems most likely due to his velo jump. If you add on 2 to 3 mph you don’t always just harness that. I can’t wait til he comes up.

Especially over some of the guys from the 2011 draft but I like it.

Undersized lefty (5-10) who throws 91-95mph but totally loses command of his fastball if he pumps it up 93-95mph, had 3.95 FIP with 5.00 BB/9 between AA and AAA. Does not have any plus pitch. Mediocre command. High K/9 rate. Seems to me more of reliever prospect.

Not sure about your assement of Man Ban there Patrick. He did struggle with his command but it was the first time in his 4 year history that it’s been an issue. Prior, his highest BB/9 ratio was 3.5 in 64 IP.

As far as his arsenal. He is said to have a plus fastball and a plus change (always been his best pitch). Couple that with the fact that he only turns 21 in March and is already pitching at AAA and I’m not sure why you’re ready to relegate him as a relief prospect.

He’s been throwing in the low to mid 90’s since 2009 so I doubt the uptick in velocity is what’s causing his control issues.

I still think he has to be viewed as a top 10 starting pitching prospect.

No mention of Rosario is odd. He seems a very interesting ’spect. Good bat, with a little pop at SS. Some speed. Certainly seems worthy of this list.

I like Manny B. as a top 16-19 starting prospect—-top 10 is a serious stretch, though.

Let’s face it, as much as most of us despise, despise, despise the boys from da Bronx, a 20-year-old twirler who succeeds in AA and keeps it together in AAA is prolly a really sturdy bump prospect, however undersized.

This site’s participants, in general, incorporate ARL quite deftly…but sometimes a touch selectively. Manny deserves the same credit (despite his Evil Empire pedigree) as any other prospect.. So B+…as John will likely grant in time. Because…

Sickels is the best. (Save meself, o’course ) It surprises, if not stuns, how often John correctly strikes the tricky balance between actual performance and speculative prognostication, to arrive at a fully rational forecast of MLB perfomance.

It’s a helluva thing, really—-and to get it gratis as well.

Happy New Year, Mr. Sickels.

Oh, and Bichette oughtta be a B+. To kick butt in the GCL at 18, with robust plate discipline, is too good to merit merely a straight B. For me, anyway.

Montero A-/B+ He does have a good bat, but I think it’s more 2008 Carlos Lee like than Miguel Cabrera, considering the fact he’s a DH, that’s still a valuable player, but not a straight A. And as for the major league performance, 1 he had a .400 BABIP, totally unsustainable, he also had a very unsustainable 26.7% Home run to flyball rate, his minor league rate is 17.6%
Marshall B-
Put up pretty good numbers with pretty good stuff, that’s better than a lot of these prospects can say. I like sinkerballers who get a ton of groundballs, they’re pretty safe bets.
Bichette B-
I know he put up huge numbers, but 1 he wasn’t regarded that highly before the draft 2 it was only 240 plate appearances and 3, it was the GCL, a very low level of competition.

Other than that, I think John nailed it.
John is one of the best talent evaluators, and he gives us his top 20s for free, his book is a much better value than paying for a year of BA.

He can’t hit major league pitching without luck either. He hasn’t given you any indication that he can’t crush that level like he did in the minors.

Crush wasn’t the right word but for his age at those levels he did very good work there, but again he hasn’t shown that he won’t be able to hit up there.

315… but he’ll have more homeruns than 28 assuming he’s not plantooning… His opposite field power makes A-Rod look like Tony Womack. He’s also hitting in Yankee Stadium, needless to say.

If he was a B before the season, I don’t think he improved his stock enough this past season to warrant a B+. Credit to John for being hesitant to grade this guy as a B+ while most were jumping right on the bandwagon.

ps Carson Cistulli from fangraphs is going to kill you for putting CHarlie Blackmon 12th and a C+ on your rockies list.

10-16 all have B- arguments. I think Heathcott is the only one I would keep at B-, given his shoulder injuries.
Culver’s grade depend on how much value you give his defense, and how much you buy an projection in his bat. He is someone who could stay at a C+, and could have a huge jump next year.
Gumbs had a 109 wRC+, 106 wOBA, 116 OPS+ line as an 18 year old while learning a new position and doing pretty well. I think he could be a B grade next year.
Murphy’s bat alone probably deserves a B-, and he still has a shot at sticking at catcher; he put up a 118 wRC+, 108 wOBA+, 120 OPS+ line as a 20 year old in Charleston. His numbers took a hit in Tampa, but not as important to me give it was a pretty small sample and he was transitioning to a higher level.
Marshall had a 3.24 FIP in a 140 innings returning from injury as a 21 year old in Tampa. He has some pretty great reports on his sinker. I think that warrants a B-, even though his K-rates are not great.
Warren and Romine are both ML-ready prospects who could at least get starting jobs with most second-division teams. Romine’s combination of an average+ bat and defense makes him pretty valuable on an ML team. Warren can be a good 4-5 starter on many teams, given his decent BB-rates and groundball rates.
Banuelos should have been a B+ last year, but I understand how you can’t raise his grade given his BB-rate this year. I think this time next year, his B is going to look awful low.
The Williams grade is not aggressive. Actually the Bichette grade might be more aggressive.
Thanks for the great work John!

What separates him from a guy like Freeman who “only” received an A- last year despite a significantly better season in AAA while being a year younger, had strong scouting reports, and projected to provide some defensive value with his glove at 1B? I’ve just never really understood why Montero got significantly more love. Could it be people always questioning Freeman because his swing doesn’t look pretty?

If you admit he’s a DH and still give him an “A” rating, then what you are saying is he has the highest offensive ceiling of any prospect.

I’m not questioning the opinion of Montero’s offensive potential mind you, just the fact you rate him the same as guys like Harper and Trout and Machado who are significantly better all-round players.

Which I thought was the point of the rankings in the first place.

If you theoretically bump Mike Olt from an “A” to a “B” because of his high strikeout rate while admitting he’s a plus defender, what that really says is Olt is in reality a C+ or B- who gets a half grade bump because of defense, right?

And by the same theory, would Mike Trout be a B+ without his speed?

I’m sorry, John, but even if Montero is in your opinion at the top of the scale with his power and hit tools, he’s so far below average in the others I just can’t see the thought process on his getting an “A”.

I too am a little surprised by the A for Montero, given his defensive questions. His bat is definitely elite, (for those who are somewhat unimpressed by his numbers, remember that he has been very young for his level at every stop, and that many of the Yankees’ minor league affiliates are difficult parks to hit in). I’d give him a straight A if there was a better chance of him catching.

As for Banuelos, I agree with the others who say that he should be a B+ (and should have been last year too). Last year (if I remember correctly) your reason for keeping Banuelos at a B was that you were concerned about his size and durability. Of course these concerns may persist, but the bottom line is that he made it through another season in the upper minors without injury. I would think that age and scouting reports (FB touching mid-90’s, plus change), combined with a decent track record for control, would keep me from docking him too much for the walk rate this year.

I’d probably also have Gumbs a big higher, likely over Culver at this point. Your placing of Austin at 9 is far higher than I have seen him ranked elsewhere, but I think it is not that outrageous. He’s probably gotten overlooked somewhat because of the other prospects that have surrounded him.

As always, great work, and thanks for sharing your insights.

Montero just dosen’t seem that good, and I like Sanchez. Although his passed ball and wild pitch rates are big problems, he needs to fix those if he wants to stay at catcher, but then again, Montero’s not a catcher at all, so a shot at sticking at catcher which I don’t think will happen is more valuable than a guaranteed -17.5 positional adjustment by a long shot. Think about that, if Sanchez stays a catcher, which I don’t think will happen, then Montero will have to out hit him by 30 runs to be as productive. I don’t think that’s happening, although Sanchez is very far away, I think people underrate players who strike out a ton, it’s not any worse than a normal out.