Prospects in the Carlos Quentin Trade
by John Sickels on Dec 31, 2011 4:32 PM EST
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The Chicago White Sox traded outfielder Carlos Quentin to the San Diego Padres today, in exchange for a pair of minor league prospects: pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.
The White Sox farm system is the worst in baseball and needs infusions of talent from any possible source. Neither of these pitchers are future stars, but both have a chance to help. Let's take a look.
Simon Castro, RHP: Castro is a 6-5, 210 pound right-hander born on April 9th, 1988 in the Dominican Republic. Considered to be one of San Diego's best prospects entering 2011, he had a difficult season, getting killed early for Triple-A Tucson (10.17 ERA, 21/18 K/BB in 26 innings, 37 hits), then posting mediocre numbers for Double-A San Antonio (4.33 ERA, 73/16 K/BB in 89 innings, 95 hits) after being demoted to regain his confidence. Castro had pitched well for San Antonio in 2010 (2.92 ERA, 107/36 K/BB in 130 innings, 107 hits), so his inability to transition to Triple-A was disappointing.
Castro still has a fine arm, featuring a 90-95 MPH fastball. His slider has plus moments, but he's still working to refine his changeup. His mechanics are complicated and his command fails if they get out of whack, but the arm strength for success is still here, and until '11 he did a good job throwing strikes most of the time. He still has a chance to be a starting pitcher, although many scouts prefer him in relief. I have him rated as a Grade C+ in my upcoming 2012 Baseball Prospect Book.
Pedro Hernandez, LHP: Hernandez is a 5-10, 200 pound Venezuelan, born on April 12th, 1989, signed by the Padres in 2007. He pitched at three levels in 2011, going 5-0, 2.70 ERA (44/6 K/BB in 57 innings) for High-A Lake Elsinore, 3-2, 3.48 ERA (43/10 K/BB in 41 innings) for Double-A San Antonio, and 2-1, 6.00 ERA (7/6 K/BB in 18 innings) for Triple-A Tucson. He was little-known before 2011 but pitched well enough that the Padres protected him on the 40-man roster.
Hernandez has an 88-92 MPH fastball along with a good changeup and mediocre curve. There's nothing spectacular about him, but he throws strikes and could develop into a fifth starter or a relief option. I currently rate him as a Grade C prospect.
The White Sox didn't obtain a premium prospect for Quentin, but Castro still has considerable upside and perhaps the change of scenery will help his development.
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Best offer?
One would think that the Sox could have gotten a bit more for Quentin. But evidently that was not the case, or they wouldn’t have made this trade.
I still like Castro a lot. Maybe somebody with the White Sox scouting department thinks they can fix him?
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 31, 2011 4:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Agree
Seems like a weak return. Plus, I don’t really understand it from San Diego’s perspective. They just traded their Ace, now trade for an expensive outfielder. Are they rebuilding or not? Quentin’s value for a trade at the deadline will take a hit after playing in San Diego. Confusing.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 31, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Not really expensive
In general, I’m in agreement. Not clear why San Diego wants Quentin. That said, Quentin’s not particularly expensive—just $5 million last year, and he shouldn’t get a huge raise in arbitration. Also, his value shouldn’t take much of a hit in San Diego. Petco does depress home runs for righties, but not by much (5% according to StatCorner). Maybe they can get more for him at the deadline.
SD pov
San Diego traded their ace b/c they had little offense and not a lot of faith in Rizzo becoming a stud while playing in Petco. Plus they have a ton of pitching… It’s not that were dumping Latos’ salary; heck, he won’t make what Carlos is going to make for another 2 years.
-peter
by PeterF on Dec 31, 2011 7:38 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
the prospects the padres got are very close to major league ready.
The Padres aren’t rebuilding, they are restructuring the current organization. I like this move for the Padres, didn’t give up much. They still can trade Rizzo for something useful too.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Dec 31, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
not sure why TB didn't beat that offer
wouldn’t have taken much
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 31, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
alex cobb and maybe a hitter too? Drew Vettleson?
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Dec 31, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
*cough*
Alex Cobb alone is worth considerably more than Castro and Hernandez.
Its not really about who is worth more to us
Its about who is worth more to Chicago, and if they think they can fix Castro, I could see them preferring him to Cobb, even if it doesn’t necessarily make sense to us.
Maybe Chicago really wanted Castro
Or wanted Quentin out of the AL?
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This trade doesn't seem to make much sense to me from the Padres perspective
Down 2 in the bottom of the ninth?
Lets Bring in Willie Harris!
quick thoughts
I can sort of understand this from the Padres perspective. Buy low on a guy, see if he has a bounce back year. Assuming they are out of it, deal him away at mid-season. Much as I think the Padres system is still a bit over-hyped, it’s got quality depth, and to use those 2nd/3rd tier prospects, like they did in this case, for a buy low gamble seems … reasonable.
Reading the other thread, it seems a lot of people are bashing the White Sox. It isn’t a great return … but I think it’s fine. We’re talking about a very good power hitter in Quentin, but someone with an injury history the last few years, is a poor defensive player, and is in the last year of his deal.
Did I think they could do better? Off the top, probably (at least, relative to hypotheticals). Much better? I mean, they get 2 decent upper level arms, and considering how valuable cost-controlled arms are to teams these days, I don’t know if they could do much better in hypothetical value. Furthermore, it’s not like they got system filler. Hernandez has a decent shot as an end of the rotation lefty type. Simon Castro had a down year, but the fastball is still there and the slider still flashes. It’s a decent lottery ticket gamble and they save some money off the books.
by toonsterwu on Dec 31, 2011 11:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
it's only a buy low
because Quentin is entering his walk year. The deal makes sense for the Friars if they can extend Quentin. I assume that’s their intention. If that doesn’t happen, then they can fall back on the fact that they didn’t give up much to get him for the 1 year.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Jan 3, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
What toonster said.
Couldn’t have expressed it better myself.
If I were Kenny W., I’d have tried for a simple one-for-one, even if it meant dealing within the A.L….at least then maybe you land a top 75 prospect—-be they hitter or hurler. But all in all, not an inappropriately tiny return for (basically) a bat only, oft-injured corner guy.
As a Chisox fan, though, I have to wonder aloud how long before they’re a 91-93 win team again. At least three years, I’d guess.
Large Market teams should not go through 3-4 year fallow stretches. And that’s exactly what seems to be in store for the palehose. Sigh.
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