Top Fantasy Prospects for 2012: St. Louis Cardinals

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 3, 2011 5:00 PM EST

PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 10: U.S. Futures All-Star Shelby Miller #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches in the third inning during the 2011 XM All-Star Futures Game at Chase Field on July 10, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

This is the second in the series where I will pick one prospect from each of John's Top 20 Prospect lists that fantasy owners should consider on draft day in 2012. Today, I will address the top 2012 fantasy prospect for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Cardinals - Shelby Miller -Starting Pitcher

John ranked Cardinals pitcher Shelby Miller as his #1 prospect in his Cardinals Top 20 Prospect List, giving him an A rating, and here is what he wrote about Miller:

1) Shelby Miller, RHP, Grade A: Has everything needed to be a number one, rotation-anchor starter. Just needs to stay healthy and sharpen up his command a bit more.

More on Miller after the jump:

Miller is rated by many as one of, if not the, best pitching prospect in the game. Jason Parks from Baseball Prospectus ranked him as his #1 pitching prospect in the game:

With his frame, his tenacity, his smooth delivery, his being a Texan, his power arsenal that could/should leave him with three plus pitches when he reaches maturity, and the overall command that seems to gain refinement by the outing, Miller is the present leader of the pack of right-handed pitchers, and one could make a very convincing case that he is the top prospect in the game itself. After all, legit aces are baseball’s most precious commodities, and Miller has all the characteristics necessary to fulfill this projection.

Miller had a very good 2011 season in AA, which saw him start just 16 games, going 9-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 2.73 FIP in 86.2 innings of work. He struck out 9.24 batters per nine but struggled with his command at times, as his 3.43 BB/9 would indicate. While not terrible, his walk rate did increase from 2.85 in 2010 to 3.43 in 2011, so it will be something to watch in 2012. Here are Miller's career minor league stats, courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	18	MIDW	A	0	0	6.00	2	2	3.0	5	3	2	0	2	2	2.333	15.0	0.0	6.0	6.0	1.00
2010	19	MIDW	A	7	5	3.62	24	24	104.1	97	51	42	7	33	140	1.246	8.4	0.6	2.8	12.1	4.24
2011	20	2 Lgs	AA-A+	11	6	2.77	25	25	139.2	112	48	43	4	53	170	1.181	7.2	0.3	3.4	11.0	3.21
2011	20	FLOR	A+	2	3	2.89	9	9	53.0	40	20	17	2	20	81	1.132	6.8	0.3	3.4	13.8	4.05
2011	20	TL	AA	9	3	2.70	16	16	86.2	72	28	26	2	33	89	1.212	7.5	0.2	3.4	9.2	2.70
3 Seasons				18	11	3.17	51	51	247.0	214	102	87	11	88	312	1.223	7.8	0.4	3.2	11.4	3.55

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/20/2011.

Miller will probably start the season in AA in 2012, and I can see him skipping AAA entirely. I can see him being added to the Cardinals rotation by mid-season, and providing fantasy owners with a decent ERA/FIP and plenty of strikeouts.

Miller should be a late round choice in mixed league drafts in 2012, and is a must own in dynasty and keeper leagues.

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Comments

Why don't you finish your posts?

by MilesC on Dec 3, 2011 5:13 PM EST reply actions

And I'm not angry, I just don't get why you don't wait until you are done

by MilesC on Dec 3, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

my sincere apologies

I started it and scheduled it ahead of time thinking I would have time to complete it.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 3, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, no problem. I was just curious

by MilesC on Dec 3, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Miller in 2012?

Given that Miller likely doesn’t show up until either late 2012 or 2013, wouldn’t Sanchez, Lynn, or someone similar be a better prospect to choose for the Cards’ best 2012 fantasy prospect?

by dbreer23 on Dec 3, 2011 6:33 PM EST reply actions

Dynasty/keeper leagues aside, of course...

by dbreer23 on Dec 3, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

Motte

is slated to close in 2012, but I think Lynn may get some chances as well and could be the next in line, especially with the way he was used in the playoffs.
I think Miller is on the fast track and will be called up midseason and placed in the Cardinals rotation. He has dominated at every level thus far.

Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 3, 2011 7:13 PM EST up reply actions

The only way this happens is aignificant injuiries

To multiple starters, and even then, the likelihood is low

"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister

Trevor Rosenthal Update (as of end of regular season)
120 1/3IP, 133 K, 52 BB/HBP, 55 ER, 7 HR, 3.04 FIP
Postseason: 2 Starts- 15 IP, 9 H, 10 K, 2 BB, 3 ER, 19:10 GO:AO

by VolsnCards5 on Dec 4, 2011 9:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Agreed

I do think we will see Miller in STL at some point in 2012 but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them do the Waino treatment and put him as a key reliever down the stretch to get confidence and keeping his overall innings under control. It would also bolster the bully. I do expect Miller to win a rotation job in STL out of ST in 2013 though.

Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com

by JDizzidy on Dec 4, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions