Former top prospect relievers converting back to starters

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 23, 2011 11:36 AM EST

I wanted to hear your thoughts on the three high-upside arms that will making the switch back to a starter, hoping their story will be more C.J. Wilson, less Joba Chamberlain.

Daniel Bard - Was great as a starter in college, was a total disaster in his first year as a starter in the minors and really only pulled it together as a reliever, and hasn't started since. Now the Sox want to give it a chance... they don't trust him to close but they feel like they would get more value out of him as a good starter than a great set-up man (and they're probably right). Of course, while he was dominant as a reliever, he hasn't started in several years so it's very risky.

Chris Sale - Has always been seen as a pitcher who could be great as a starter or a closer, but looks like the Sox finally decided they want to make him a closer after 2 years in relief. Like Bard, his stuff is great, but unlike Bard, has a small and wiry frame, making some wonder if he'll have the durability and stamina to handle a full year of starts. Still, he has a track record of minor league success as a starter and could still be valuable on an innings limit.

Neftali Feliz - The former closer has had fans imploring management to make him a starter for over 2 years, and they're finally getting their wish. Feliz's profile is like Sale's, except with more upside and higher likelihood of durability. Still, Feliz's decline in performance in 2011 was discouraging, as he needs to have a strong K/BB rate as a reliever to have a chance to succeed as a starter. How they'll make room for him is another question entirely.

What are your projections and/or predictions for them in the 2012 season and beyond?

Poll

Who will put up the best numbers in 2012?

Daniel Bard

7 votes

Chris Sale

47 votes

Neftali Feliz

62 votes

116 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

What will Bard's IP limit be, do you think?

Or will the Sox let him pitch the full season with no limit if he sticks in the rotation? He hasn’t even pitches 80 innings in a single season since college, which will have been about 5 years ago at this point. Even if he gets capped at 150, he’s basically doubling his usual total. Should be fun to see.

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by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 23, 2011 12:02 PM EST reply actions

well it probably depends largely on his performance

If he’s great, they may let him go to 160 innings (not that I’d recommend it, health wise).

But he could just lose innings by getting a break if he gets into a funk.

Just to get a conversation going on it, here are my predictions projections:

Bard: This Year – 7-10, 4.71 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 in 137 IP.

Future – Falls apart in to the 2012 playoffs, and Sox decide to return him to the pen for 2013. He finally becomes a closer in 2014 and has some ups and downs but holds onto the job for a few years before settling as a very good set-up man who gets spot saves.

Sale: This year – 9-11 4.02 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 in 152 IP.

Future – Stays a starter and becomes a popular sleeper for 2013, drawing comps to Max Scherzer. Pitches 185 innings with improved numbers overall, but gets an injury requiring Tommy John in 2014 and loses some velocity in his return and throws his slider less often with less bite, but is mostly healthy thereafter as a strong #3 but one who rarely makes it past 7 innings… Ted Lilly comes to mind.

Feliz:

This year – 13-8 3.56 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 in 161 IP.

Future – Has a breakthrough as a starter, regaining some of his old velocity, becomes a borderline 1/2 starter by 2013 (think around Ricky Romero, James Shields, C.J. Wilson territory) and eventually becomes a top 5 SP who totals 200+ innings a year.

Of course, the future predictions are totally speculative. Bard’s is pretty pessimistic, Sale’s is moderate, and Feliz is optimistic… Right now, their 2011 stat profiles as relievers are fairly similar, and I’m basing this more on their pedigree (apparent physical and mental makeup), and major/minor league performance, and some good ol’ gut intuition.

Well at least you don’t have to worry now about people thinking your predictions look stupid., so fire away!

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 23, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

"Well at least you don’t have to worry now about people thinking your predictions look stupid., so fire away!"

Careful what you ask for…LOL.

Bard: Command issues which forced him to the bullpen in the first place re-surface in spring training. Red Sox decide to have him start the season in Pawtucket’s rotation to build up arm strength. After a DL stint necessitated by “dead arm” syndrome, the Sox scrap the experiment and Bard returns to Boston around Memorial Day in his original set up role.

Sale: Injury will be this year, worst mechanics I’ve ever seen. Injury will be so severe the surgery will be named after him.

Feliz:: Will have a better season across the board than Darvish.

by Kelsdad on Dec 23, 2011 1:14 PM EST reply actions

You

are nothing if not bold

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 23, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions

Buying Sale

“Still, he has a track record of minor league success as a starter and could still be valuable on an innings limit.”

I courteously suggest replacing “minor league” with “recent collegiate” given that Sale has never started a minor league game. Of the 3 choices you provided, I’ll project that Sale is the only one to log 100+ innings as a starter in 2012. I also like Sale’s chances to be the best starter of the 3 by the time their respective careers are over. Feliz may well stick as a starter but it seems a bit daffy to think that Bard will.

by reillocity on Dec 23, 2011 2:37 PM EST reply actions

fixed

yeah I think Sale can be great if he doesn’t get injured, but Feliz has much smoother mechanics. But yeah, Bard as a starter is a pretty bad desperation move by the sox, it could theoretically pay off but I don’t see it.

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 23, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Dec 24, 2011 7:47 AM EST up reply actions

yep, you're correct

If anyone wants to do an NL version though, go right ahead.

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Dec 24, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

um

“Has always been seen as a pitcher who could be great as a starter or a closer, but looks like the Sox finally decided they want to make him a closer after 2 years in relief”

i think you mean starter there, not closer

by wily mo on Dec 23, 2011 7:45 PM EST reply actions