Prospects in the Gio Gonzalez Trade
by John Sickels on Dec 22, 2011 6:31 PM EST
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Prospects in the Gio Gonzalez Trade
On the eve of the eve of Christmas Eve, the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals pulled off a huge trade. Oakland sent southpaw starter Gio Gonzalez to the nation's capital, in exchange for four prospects. I wrote my Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2012 report just two days ago, and all four minor leaguers involved made the list, making this a huge boost for the Athletics farm system.
Let's take a look:
A.J. Cole, RHP: A 19-year-old right-hander, Cole was drafted in the fourth round in 2010 from high school in Oviedo, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was rated a first-round talent by most analysts, but bonus demands knocked his stock down. It took $2,000,000 to sign him. Cole posted a 4.04 ERA in 89 innings his year for Hagerstown in the Low-A South Atlantic League, but with 108 strikeouts to his credit (overall K/BB 108/24). Tall and lean at 6-4, 180, Cole has a mid-90s fastball and made progress refining his mechanics and command this year. His curve and change are works in progress, but improving, and he has the upside of a number one or two starter. I rated him a Grade B+ and ranked him third on my Nationals prospect list.
Tom Milone, LHP: Milone is a 24-year-old lefty drafted in the 10th round in 2008 from the University of Southern California. He was one of the best pitchers in the minors on a statistical basis in 2011, going 12-6, 3.22 ERA with a spectacular 155/16 K/BB in 148 innings for Triple-A Syracuse. He held his own in five major league starts, posting a 3.81 ERA with a 15/4 K/BB in 26 innings. Milone fights the skepticism of radar-wielding scouts, but he locates his below-average fastball and adequate curve with precision. His changeup and deceptive action give hitters fits, and so far no one has been able to figure out how to defeat him consistently. Milone has a small margin for error, but has clearly earned a major league trial and could end up being a very solid fourth starter. I have him with a Grade B- grade and ranked him 9th on the Nationals list.
Derek Norris, C: Norris was drafted in the fourth round in 2007 from high school in Goddard, Kansas. A 22-year-old catcher, he hit just .210 this year for Double-A Harrisburg, but with 20 homers and 77 walks. He's developed into a solid defensive catcher, throwing out 40% of runners in '11 while steadily improving his blocking and receiving skills. Norris isn't going to hit for average, but his power, plate discipline, and glovework should make him a productive regular. I rated him a Grade B and ranked him sixth on the Nationals list.
Brad Peacock, RHP: Peacock had a breakthrough season in 2011, going 15-3, 2.39 ERA with a 177/47 K/BB in 147 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, allowing just 98 hits. He gave up just one run in a 12-inning major league trial. A 41st-round pick from a Florida high school in 2006, Peacock has always had a good arm, hitting 92-94 MPH, topping at 96-97, but was mediocre in the past due to command issues with his secondary pitches. He polished up his mechanics this year and developed better location with his plus curveball and improving changeup. I gave him a strong Grade B, almost a B+, and ranked him fourth on the Nationals list.
It's a win-now, cash-in-chips transaction for the Nationals. From their point of view, Gonzalez is more likely to help them in '12 than Peacock or Milone. If this trade works out for Oakland, they've obtained two pitchers who could be front-line ace starters with Cole and Peacock, a major-league-ready, strike-throwing inning-chewer who consistently defies skeptics in Milone, and a future starting catcher in Norris. As with all trades involving prospects, it is unlikely they will all reach their full potential, but I think the Athletics got fair value.
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2012 A's
Is it possible that Parker, Milone, and Peacock all break the A’s opening day rotation? As for Norris, do you think he’ll be blocked by Suzuki or will he get a shot at regular playing time in 2012 or 2013?
Looks like Beane’s running his team like I run my fantasy team… when you firesale, you sell ALL THE WAY. I wonder if he’ll deal Milone next offseason for more prospects with higher upside.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 22, 2011 6:35 PM EST reply actions
He's selling all the way but he's selling for near major league ready pitchers, not future
star position players. It might be fair value in a vacuum, but I don’t know that it’s the right way to build a future winner. It could just be a future version of the 2010-11 A’s.
tko bira, masturbira -- Croatian proverb quoted by elcroata
by WaddellCanseco on Dec 22, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
That is my guess
Oakland needs to just move the team because this is getting depressing. Trading young cost controlled arms for prospects has to be really disheartening to what is left of their fan base.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 22, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
more depressing
is the lack of success at the mlb level for chris carter (limited exposure, granted), and whatever happened to barton last year.
It doesn’t seem like the team will be in very bad shape in a year or two.
But that hope does rely on the current bats in the system coming through in some way.
They could easily be above average at every position, while lacking any superstars within a year or two.
I suppose it is a lot of “ifs”.
It's not necessarily a win-now move
if the Nationals have Gio under control through 2015, 4 more seasons, including his late-20s prime. Comparatively, it is, but I think they’re still in good shape to contend for several years beyond 2012 and 2013.
But if it wasn't a win now move
wouldn’t they be in better shape down the road by the time Gonzalez hits FA if they had kept their pitching depth?
I doubt they’re better off in 3 or 4 years with just Gio rather than these 3 guys they just traded.
Am I the only one flagging this guy? 
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 22, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
The Nats are probably looking at it this way
For the next four years they have Stras, Zimmerman, and Gio locked up at the MLB level. This year they also have Detwiller, Livan, and Wang. They still have Purke, Solis, and Meyer on the farm to develop as SPs.
From some reason I think the Nats are going to sign Prince to A) help bridge the gap to Bryce B) Try to make some noise this year or for sure in 2013.
for all the Prince talk
I still think solidifying the top of the lineup is more important for the Nats. I think they have enough middle of the order possibilities, particularly if Werth rebounds a bit.
I'm not sure how they are going to do that
Desmond is an awful baseball player. If Werth rebounds he can bat 1 or 2. Anyone know what their payroll ceiling is supposed to be?
Livan Hernandez is gone, gone, gone sir.
He was Mr. National. But he’s hit the end of his ride in Natstown. Did you mean John Lannan instead of Livan?
Waiting to bang my drum in parades for the Nats and Caps.
by souldrummer on Dec 22, 2011 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
8 years 200 million seems like an expensive bridge for 2 months
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't give him 8 years
But I would give him 5 or 6 at 25 to 30 per year.
by 96mnc on Dec 23, 2011 11:10 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
seems like 6/160-170 might get the job done....
its sounding like boras really wants to beat pujols AAV
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
6 year $155 million
would beat Howard’s AAV record for a first baseman. I would offer 8 years at $180-190 million max personally, I can’t see anyone going beyond that right now.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
ive doubted boras before...no longer do i
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
pujols beat howards AAV as well
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
somehow I forgot that already. Well, this would be Pujols as well (25.8 vs 25.4).
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
A's 2012 Rotation Looks Like?
So how many of these 3SP do you see cracking the rotation next year? Those Peacock numbers were very impressive…
.406
Id guess..
Braden/McCarthy/Ross/Milone/Peacock with Anderson back In August.
2013 Could be tho Anderson/Parker/Gray/Peacock/Milone could be good.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Parker could nudge his way into
’12 rotation somehow. Is Braden going to be ready to go from the gate?
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Dec 22, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
"Somehow" might end up being
“Ross’s arm falls off again” or “Braden breaks for the 3rd year in a row”. Though Moscoso is going to be part of the rotation, too.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
My prediction
McCarthy/Peacock/Milone/Parker/Moscoso with Braden taking over for the first one who struggles or gets hurt sometime in May or June… I don’t think they really are looking at Ross as a rotation option, and would plug someone like Outman in before him.
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by The Congo Hammer on Dec 22, 2011 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Im not sure.
Ross pitcherd very well the A’s when he was up with the big club before he got hurt. I think the organization is gonna ride Ross till he breaks. As they should.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Not smart for Washington
They aren’t close enough to contending to justify giving up those four prospects.
eh
As much as I think this is a win for Oakland, I think Washington is close enough to contending to take this move. While I am not as high on Gio as many others are, he does give them a good rotation trio for 4 years (I think) with Strasburg and Zimmerman. In the short term, they look to have a very good rotation (Stras/Zim/Gonz/Wang/Detwiler/Lannan … ), a strong pen. Defensively, while some of the youngsters are erratic, if I recall the numbers, they are basically a decent/solid defensive club. They’ve got solid middle of the order options. If they go after Prince, this lineup could look real deep, but as noted, I still think they could use another top of the order bat.
On paper, are there 4 clubs in the NL that would strike you as definitely better? I’m not so sure they couldn’t win the NL east, depending on how the rest of the off-season goes and if they get some things to go there way.
i think they can win now
phillies are an aging team, doubt they hold onto top spot for very long. I think if they can sign prince fielder they could most definitely at least compete in the NL East
by Noah McKinnie Braun on Dec 22, 2011 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
Gio
He’s good but he’s also overrated. I would have just kept the prospects and signed the similarly-good (once you look past the deceiving ERA, of course) Edwin Jackson, who is oddly getting very little attention on the FA market (or so it seems).
All
they need to do is sign Fielder or even Cespedes and they could be.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2011 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
That's the benchmark for the deal
They just went 80-81 without Gio Gonzalez, a cup of coffee from Stephen Strasburg, and an innings limit for Jordan Zimmermann. The strong bullpen comes back largely intact with young controllable pieces in Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen as anchors. The biggest thing is are they serious about improving their lineup? Either they are gambling huge on Bryce Harper’s timeline being 2012, planning to sign Cespedes, planning to sign Fielder or hoping for too many things to go right with their present personnel.
Waiting to bang my drum in parades for the Nats and Caps.
by souldrummer on Dec 22, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Gio
isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Why does it have to be 2012? Presumably Harper and Rendon will both be contributors to the ML team well before Gio leaves.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 22, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
I feel that it has to be 2012-2013 to make the deal worth it
By 2014, you figure Peacock, Cole, and/or Milone are a cheap portion of the A’s rotation while the Nats are paying a premium for Gio in his arbitration years.
Waiting to bang my drum in parades for the Nats and Caps.
Somewhat disagree
I think the Nationals would be OK with a serious run at playoff contention in 2012 even if they fall just short. 2012 is the test drive for 2013 – let the players get used to pennant pressure, get Stras back online and let the rest of the players tell you who is ready and who isn’t (I’m looking at you, Despinosa).
they should be in contention for a playoff spot before too much longer
They were a .500 team this year. The next couple of years should bring better luck with pitching as Strasburg and Zimmerman seem to have emerged from their injuries well enough. There are some intriguing pieces already in the lineup, and you have two fast-moving impact type bats in Harper and Rendon. This is exactly the type of team that should be looking to add impact talent that they can keep around for a while.
It was a good package, but there wasn’t that much that will be missed short-term. The Nats already have a young established catcher in Ramos. Cole is talented but 2-3 years away from even approaching the majors. Milone should be an okay guy in the back end of a rotation but doesn’t seem like a good bet to be an enduring impact type, and he shouldn’t be too hard to replace. Peacock is the one piece that might have made a difference in the next couple of years . . .but then again, maybe he ends up being more of a reliever type.
So in all, the Nats traded some long-term potential and spare parts for short-term gain, making this not unlike just about any other prospects-for-established-player trade.
Well put
I’d stress though that this isn’t really a short term move per se as Gio Gonzalez is under club control (& shouldn’t be overly costly) for a half decade & I’d venture that he is likely to be a valuable piece throughout the duration (he’s barely 26 now). Your assessment of the pieces headed to the Bay Area rings true as well & as much as I like Brad Peacock (possibly more than the consensus here), he shouldn’t really hold things up when the possibility of acquiring a long term, cost effective, frontline starter is actual.
Gonzalez-Stephen Strasburg-Jordan Zimmermann is a nice rotation foundation in the NL East (or anywhere) & I don’t think this team is that far off from earnest contention.
Robert Gilliam?
What about Robert Gilliam? I read that the Nats get him with Gio Gonzalez.
Olney
An evaluator told Olney that Peacock reminds him of Radke… Did Radke throw that hard? Won’t Peacock get more ks?
radke
I remember radke…he did not throw as hard as peacock
by John Sickels on Dec 23, 2011 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
Well, probably not but the classic Brad Radke didn't throw as hard as when he first came up. But as a rookie Radke could probably come close to Peacock
There is no way Peacock as nearly a Radke change-up though, so the more K’s argument for Peacock doesn’t really fly with me, yes i am semi-biased, but i also am a realist. Will Peacock miss more bats? In the end probably, but he’s not an ace and he may end up in relief, For Brad Radke he was a bonified ace there for a few seasons in the late 90’s
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 23, 2011 3:11 AM EST up reply actions
Gio doesn't improve Nats that much.
Considering he’s likely less than a 2 win upgrade over Milone for next year. By 2013 Peacock and Milone have a decent shot of being worth more than Gio while being paid the league min. Unless Nats think the small boost they get from Gio will give them a shot at contending, this is a really bad trade for them. They were a 34 WAR team last year, which projects to 80 wins. So they need to add at least 10 wins to compete, maybe closer to 15 considering how the strength of Brave/Phillies. Gio gives you 2, signing Fielder would be 5 more. Nats would need something like 8 wins from Stras to really feel comfortable about contending. That’s not a gamble I would make, especially when they would be in a much better position in 2013 if they didn’t make this trade.
To clarify, I'm saying combined value of Peacock and Milone may be more than value of Gio by 2013.
Also, Nats are gambling they can sign someone like Prince to contend next year. Without another big addition this offseason, Nats are going to need Stras to be 10+ WAR next year to contend…which is probably not happening.
by silverbook1 on Dec 22, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
That's true
Over 3 years for sure if they live up to their potential it should be a great deal for the a’s.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/12/22/2656099/a-graphic-look-at-gio-vs-prospects
not just Stras
Werth was a +5 WAR player for Phils last 3 years, he should bounce back. Harper could be up after June or so & add another 2 wins. They might get more WAR from C now that Ramos is taking over. Probably get 1 more WAR from J Zimm with no innings limit, and R Zimm if healthy can add more than last year, he was 2.5 WAR vs. 7 WAR in 2 prior years. Easy to add 10 wins there, possible to add 15.
+1
by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 23, 2011 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
they don't need 10 wins to compete.
bud is going to get his way and the second wild card will be added for 2012. if you’re even an 84 win team, you’ll probably be “competitive” into the final week of the season.
Yes Nats traded away 3 pitching prospects
but they have a locked up rotation and possibly in 2-3 yrs later purke, solis, meyer are ready to go (who have huge upside themselves). So there is good reason from that side
Combining the 2 deals A’s got 3 mlb ready type pitchers in peacock, parker, and milone . Cook could also be a middle reliever. Anderson/Braden midseason. a group of 5th sp types like moscoso/ross/outman/godfrey. Alot of depth,fairly young sp’s but with issues
BA says norris can stick at catcher and has all star potential, if this is true. i’d say A’s got a just as good deal for gio than the padres got for latos
this
especially
possibly in 2-3 yrs later purke, solis, meyer are ready to go (who have huge upside themselves).
especially if purke gets healthy and meyer reaches his potential.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Hell of a deal for Athletics, in my honest opinion the difference in what they got for Gio to Cahill
is almost staggering, when you consider they also gave up Breslow in the Cahill deal as well.
I like it for the Nats too, if they think they’re in win “now” mode.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 23, 2011 3:08 AM EST reply actions
Cahill is unimpressive and they got a starter with ace upside.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Cahill's an innings eater under control for a long time. That's something.
Parker’s got upside, sure, but he’s the same age as Cahill. And if Parker doesn’t pan out, then they got basically nothing.
ummm
Parker >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> unimpressive
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Nats should be aiming more for 2014
So I’m skeptical about the timing of this sort of deal. Can you really count on guys like Harper and Rendon to come up and perform in line with their potential in 2012-13? I doubt it. But by the middle of the decade, it should be possible. And in that sense, these prospects could be helping at the same time, or be used to get a similar value in trade at a more beneficial time.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Gio Gonzalez is under club control through 2016
That would be pretty firmly in the ‘middle of the decade’.
I understand that
But why not go get a Gio Gonzalez type in a couple years after the value on Cole, Peacock, etc matures a bit more? I think it’s kind of wasted value to run out and make a trade like this now, since they’re unlikely to contend next season or in 2013.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Or potentially when those guys lose all of their value?
It seemed a good time to sell on Norris. How many more seasons can he hit .210 and retain value? Peacock and Milone coming off of career years, what if those ARE their career years when their careers are over? Biggest risk of selling off was Cole, and young pitcher flame out all of the time.
People underestimate the value of winning 3-4 extra games even if you’re not going to make the playoffs. Nats could compete in 2013.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think the value of winning 79 games as opposed to 76
Merits trading 4 of your top 10 prospects.
Optimistically, the Nats are the 3rd best team in the East. Pessimistically, they’re a distant 4th.
4 of their top 10 prospects this year. I think people were undervaluing prospects for too long and now the trend is starting to overvalue them.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
100% agree about overvaluing prospects
Still think it’s a good return for Oakland and a puzzling move for a team like the Nats to make.
I think there's a good chance that two of the prospects sent over turn into good players.
I think for three of them to turn into good players would be surprising and if all four do, it’s shocking. Sometimes you get a Rangers deal like with Teixeira to Atlanta, but that’s rare. Nats get a guy that’s no worse than a #3 and some years will be a “#2” so I can’t fault them for that. They’re trying to win now, maybe they’re delusional about that, but its clear over the last two years that its what they are trying to do, so I wouldn’t call it puzzling. Maybe just disagree with their evaluation of their prospects and Gonzalez, but the move makes sense in regards to what Washington is trying to do.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don't disagree with any of that...
But much of Gio’s value is in his contract — 4 years of affordable team control. If you aren’t built to compete in the near term, he has considerably less value. The Nats would’ve been smarter to kill a year or two and make a similar trade then.
Also, with prospects I’d much rather have 4 B/B+ guys than 1 A- guy, like Parker - especially when that A prospect has hadTJS.
Agree with second part
And theoretically the first part makes sense, but I believe the Nats are going to aim for the playoffs in the next two years, especially with the addition of the second wild card slot.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Presumably the Nats agree with you
And if you’re right, it may be a good trade. I’m just skeptical they are better than 2 of the Phillies, Braves and Marlins in 2012-2013.
Yeah, that's the thing
Maybe in the central or west it would be different. But the east is extremely stacked right now.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I don't think the Marlins or Braves are any better than the Nats
The Phillies are definitely the best, but any of the next three could be in line for second place and one of the two wild cards, depending on luck, health, break-outs, etc.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
The Marlins have added a lot this offseason
And may continue to add more, from the sound of things.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Well last week
CAIRO’s 2012 projected standings had the Nats at 80 wins, Marlins at 81, Braves at 87. With the Gio trade, the Nats move up to 84 or so I would guess. The Marlins could add more, but I have a feeling it will be small moves like re-signing Javy Vasquez.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
agreed for the most part
The Atl and Fla front three starting pitchers are no better than the Nats. The phillies old, especially their lineup.
by 96mnc on Dec 24, 2011 2:50 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
If Strasburg pitches 32 games and Harper comes on in the second half and Werth bounces back, ehh.. who knows?
That’s a lot of big IFs. But they’ll be one of the most watchable teams.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Too many "if's" to give up 4 very good prospects, IMO
But yeah, they will certainly be more entertaining.
Maybe it IS a precursor to signing Fielder.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they won 90 games.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2011 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
Strasburg isn't pitching 32 games
Conjecture is he’ll be on about a 170-inning limit, as the first full year back from TJS. That’s about 25 games (assuming 7 innings/start). The innings cap is a little more extensive than Zimmermann, who started 26 games (161 IP) in 2011, since Strasburg started one more game in 2011 than Zimmermann did in 2010.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
I have a hard time saying the Nats are unable to contend
They went 80-81 this year and about the only thing that broke really well for them were Danny Espinosa’s first half and Michael Morse’s full year. Substituting Gio Gonzalez for Livan Hernandez is supposed to give them a major boost in their rotation that should equal a few more wins. I don’t think they’re done yet in the quest for a CF either.
Waiting to bang my drum in parades for the Nats and Caps.
not to mention a full season of stras
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
through 2015
He will be a free agent after the 2015 season.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Pads vs. A's deals
How is the A’s deal better? Pads got two guys better than anyone the A’s got. Two B+/A- positional prospects and a B- pitching prospect vs. a B+ pitching prospect, B/B+ pitching prospect, B positional prospect, and B- pitching prospect. Not to mention Volquez projects for a ~league average ERA/FIP next season with some room for upside.
Latos is also much better than Gio
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by OldProspects on Dec 23, 2011 8:44 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know about that
They’re pretty close to me. Gonzalez is only two years older also & carried less off field baggage from most accounts I’ve seen.
Latos is way better than hip
Younger, more talented, and more productive
by 96mnc on Dec 23, 2011 11:13 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
And even though they pitched in big-time pitchers parks
the splits for Latos are significantly lower than Gio.
that's worth noting
One of the reasons why so many teams were on Gonzalez seems to be his makeup.
depends on your view
alonso seems to be ovverrated, his stats never really popped in the minors and is limited to 1b,
cole’s upside is a 1/2 sp. although risky since yrs away
BA says norris has made strides and can stay at catcher long term, ive read grandal would be avg defensively at best. Both offensively have all star potential for the position. Grandal has a better prospect ranking, but talent wise its closer than you think.
i’d personally take peacock/milone over volquez/boxberger, but thats just my opinion.
by J.J. Miller on Dec 23, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
This is the most opinionated post ever. “Alonso seems overrated”….right. Based on unbiased reports of the prospects the pads’ package is far better. Yes Latos is the better pitcher but Gio is a lefty and has put up those numbers in the AL… A’s package is filled with pitcher prospects, and high ceiling ones at that, some of the riskiest in the business. Pads got better rated guys that are also positional prospects and inherently more likely to succeed.
Milone = Marcum?
Would Shaun Marcum be a good comp of what Milone could end up being (except for pitching with the other hand)?
Marcum’s a pretty decent pitcher despite not having a 90mph fastball.
Buehrle seems like a good comp to Milone.
I will say that the A’s are now one of my AL teams.
MOAR SEVERINO!
More Glavine than Buerhle?
With the pinpoint command he’s shown to date, Milone makes me think of Glavine, who had less FB than Buerhle at his peak, but still baffled hitters. But the number of Glavines who emerge from that soft-tossing LH profile are obviously few & far between, but that would be the comp to dream on for Milone.
Milone's interesting but
I’m skeptical of his type until they show they can make ML hitters swing and miss a time or two.
Millone and Glavine?
I really hate comps like this. Glavine is a HOF pitcher and one of the best lefties in the last 30 years. People need to look at the most likely comp and not the 0.000000001% comparison.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I see his best case as a lefty version of Bob Tewksbury.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Which is still really valuable
But not HoF-level.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
80 year
I think you are selling him short. I expect Moyer to win the World Series MVP in 2065.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 23, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
why not dream?
Milone is a lottery ticket. I said it was the comp to dream on, not the comp to project him as. Give me a break already. Of course his most likely performance level would be way below a Glavine.
Why not dream?
What good does it do you? As a Jays fan I can say that Gose is the next Willie Mays but it isn’t helpful at all.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 23, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
not fair. I want to dream on Gose.
Already chalking him up as some Crawford/Upton hybrid
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 23, 2011 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
as a Braves fan
Glavine didn’t necessarily “baffle” hitters. He never gave in to hitters. There’s a substantial difference between the two. Umps gave Glavine much respect around ‘93 or so and most things that were close HAD to be swung at. Thus, they’d ground out to 2B or K on a change up. He had some gitty up early in his career (I remember him running a few fastballs on the hands of RH batters that were in the low 90’s).
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty much this
I’m not sure Glavine could be nearly successful with the current strikezone as he was with the one he pitched too. According to Mike Fast’s research, location determines BABIP much more so than stuff does. Glavine’s ability to put pitches just off the outside corner, where he could still usually get the call, forced hitters to swing at pitches they really couldn’t do anything with.
keith law doesnt see much in milone
Milone, 24, is a finesse lefty with a below-average fastball and no out pitch; he might survive as an emergency guy in a big ballpark like Oakland’s, but they can and will do better for the back of their rotation.
He also projects Peacock as a middle reliever
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Law does not like soft-throwing starters.
I encourage you to check out Fish Stripes, Catch-28 and my twitter.
Law doesn’t like much and I find most of his analysis, if you can call it that, highly dubious.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 24, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
People always have comps to throw out
It’s possible, of course, but it never strikes me as realistic. Most of these types of finesse lefties turn out to be more like Livan Hernandez or Zach Duke, than Mark Buerhle or Shaun Marcum.
Livan Hernandez and Zach Duke do have value, they are major league starting pitchers who can be counted on to eat some innings for you, but projecting Milone to end up as any kind of rotation anchor seems optimistic to me until he proves it at the ML level.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
wrong
Milone may have a small chance of reaching his top ceiling, but his ceiling has to be higher than a Duke. You can say that Duke’s career might be a likely projection, but it’s certainly not Milone’s ceiling.
That's why I said "realistic ceiling"
Sure, his top ceiling could be Moyer or Glavine or Buehrle, but that ain’t too likely.
As for realistic ceilings, Duke isn’t terrible. He was a solid innings eater for a little while, and was good when he had luck on his side.
The Nats made a mistake giving up on Brad Peacock that quickly, I think. His numbers were excellent.
They aren't "giving up on him"
They probably hurt to trade him.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 23, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Both teams got something they wanted
The Nationals got Gio, a 26yo LH with some giddyup and 4 controlled years left who fits between Strasburg & Zimmermann like a glove. They gave up a lot in return…
- Brad Peacock: 23yo RH, can throw 96 but lives at 92-94. Nice curve, developing change-up as an ‘out’ pitch. Could play as high as a #3, or as low as a set-up arm.
- Tommy Milone: 24yo LH, Can’t throw over 90, but has five pitches he can throw for strikes (2 & 4-seamer, curve, change, & slider). Mixes pitches well, could anchor a rotation for 6-7 years.
- A.J. Cole: 19yo RH, still needs polish & pro experience; Reportedly has nice fastball (95 top end), decent curve (did’nt get the chance to see him live).
- Derrick Norris: 22yo CA, an ‘on-base machine’ through his minor-league career. Has hit for gap power+ with Nationals minor-league teams, faster then you’d think on the bases, cannon arm.
Those four hurt to give up, believe me. But all in all, a fair trade.
"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3
FWIW
Cole was actually topping out more 97/98. He was reportedly sitting 94-96 by the end of the season, not topping out there.
by charles wallace on Dec 26, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
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