Morning Minor League Ball Notes, December 20th, 2011
by John Sickels on Dec 20, 2011 10:50 AM EST
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**As you know by now, the Texas Rangers won the bidding rights for Nippon Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish. He's big (6-5, 215). His fastball hits 95 MPH, and he has a strong arsenal of secondary pitches including a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. Scouts love his size, strength, durability, stuff, and feel for pitching. The general consensus is that he'll be a number one or number two (at worst) starter in the majors, won't require much (if any) adjustment time, and is going to have an easier time adapting to North America than other Japanese pitchers.
Converting Japanese statistics to US equivalents isn't easy, but even if you consider Japanese baseball equivalent to just Triple-A, Darvish has been terrific. He went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA and a 276/36 K/BB in 232 innings in 2011, allowing 156 hits and just five homers. In 1024 innings in Japan over five seasons, he's got a 1.72 ERA with a 1083//221 K/BB and just 691 hits allowed. I don't see how you can rate him as anything but a Grade A prospect for success in Major League Baseball.
**I'm working on the Washington Nationals prospect list, and will have it done either this evening or tomorrow morning. In case anyone wonders, I am fully on board the Bryce Harper bandwagon and don't have any contrarian tendencies regarding his future.
**A.J. Cole is an interesting case. Right now I have him on the borderland between a Grade B and a B+. He's not refined yet, but I like his fastball and his breaking ball. If his changeup comes around and he builds additional stamina, he could be in the Top Ten pitching prospects in all of baseball this time next year.
**I still believe in Derek Norris, and despite his problems getting over the Mendoza Line in '11, his stock actually seems improved among scouts. I think Mike Napoli's season might have something to do with that, perhaps acting on the subconscious minds of observers who would normally be suspicious about players with Norris' profile (low batting average, good power, high walk rate, underrated defense).
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I'd give Darvish a B+ rating.
I haven’t seen him as much as some, but I have watched quite a few of his starts. I don’t like his stuff as much as most scouts (although I trust the scouts WAYY more than myself). However, I’m going to follow my gut here.
I think he's more a Grade A in the Jeff Francis or Jeremy Hellickson mold than the Matt Moore mold, but an A nonetheless
Even if Darvish isn’t an exceptional pitcher, he seems a virtual lock to be at least somewhat above-average. Add that floor to a pretty strong upside and yeah, that’s a top of the line prospect.
I think that's fair
I only have 3 straight A prospects this year, so we’re not really in disagreement.
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Tough grader
I’d hate to take a class you were teaching
Heh
Just see Moore/Harper/Trout as a step above the rest.
Breakdown looks like this right now (still subject to change):
A: 3
A-: 14
B+: 34
B: 89
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You also have to consider that he's putting up these numbers at 26
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by Rochestie4ever on Dec 20, 2011 12:56 PM EST reply actions
Check your facts
Darvish was 24 for most of last season, turning 25 in mid-August.
He also began what was the equivalent of AAA at age 18 and was better than league average, was one of the best at age 19 and has been dominant since age 20.
Ichiro came over at 27.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 20, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
I think he will be pitching in Japan this season
Are the Rangers really going to give him 75 million over 5 years for a total cost of over 126 million for 5 years? I just don’t see it unless Darvish is willing to come down to 10 million per. I think he stays in Japan at least another year and the posting system is reevaluated by MLB.
They probably will
Signing Darvish helps bring them into the Japanese market and could be worth a fortune in merchandising and licensing.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 20, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
Is that really the case though?
He’d have to be a true ace for that to happen I think. In which case, he’ll earn his salary anyway.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 20, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know if he does need to be a true ace
Darvish is a HUGE star in Japan. They say he has an Elvis like following which is nuts. I’m not saying I would pay him that amount of cash, but if he is an above average starter the Rangers may be able to leverage their brand in Japan and sell a tonne of Darvish jerseys in both countries.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 20, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Merchandise is shared among all 30 teams.
And there isn’t much evidence that a Japanese star brings much in licensing. (Much of which is also shared among all 30 teams.)
The idea that a Japanese star brings in lots of extra revenue is a complete myth, commonly used to justify an overpay.
Now, if he’s as good as he’s cracked up to be, then WINNING is worth a lot of extra revenue. Playoff berths, for instance, are, I believe, said to be worth $10MM-$15MM in revenue for the club.
But simply having a Japanese star on your team has never been shown to be worth much financially.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 20, 2011 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
I didn’t know that merchandise was split evenly among all times.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 20, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
nah, he'll sign
he wants the challenge of pitching in MLB and he knows the Rangers are contenders. Plus, they have Colby Lewis, Tateyama and Uehara on the roster to ease acclimation. It’s hard to imagine a better situation for him to come to MLB than right now.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Projection for 2012
What would you predict his stat line to be (wins-losses, ERA, K/BB, WHIP)?
Would you rather have him, than, say, Michael Pineda? (based on stats alone, not contract)
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by The Congo Hammer on Dec 20, 2011 1:33 PM EST reply actions
darvish
I know you are asking me for a fantasy projection, but I hate doing stuff like that. I expect him to be an above-average pitcher at least with strong K/BB and K/IP ratios, but the other numbers are too dependent on team variables that can’t be predicted.
by John Sickels on Dec 20, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Projections are tough but consider . . .
Darvish has been a strong ground ball pitcher and the Rangers infield defence is outstanding. That’s a great match.
The elephant in the room is how he’ll adapt to the Ballpark, especially in the Summer.
All that said, given his outstanding control and command I would expect an excellent WHIP; his ERA will vary based on how he adapts to a new home park that is so tough on pitchers. My guess is he will end up in the mid-3s overall.
haha you got me
Sorry, John!
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by The Congo Hammer on Dec 21, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Darvish, Harper, and MLB All-Star Lineup...in 2018
Darvish is nasty. I don’t get the naysayers at all – he’s going to be a top 20 starter. But for $20-25 million a year? That’s a lot to spend on someone who only plays in 20% of games, especially when he hasn’t pitched in the majors.
Your Harper question got me wondering: Who would your MLB all-star lineup be in 2018? I choose 2018 because current stars will be past their prime and current prospects will be in their prime. How about this:
C Carlos Santana
1B Erik Hosmer
2B Dustin Ackley
SS Jurickson Profar
3B Brett Lawrie
LF Justin Upton
CF Mike Trout
RF Bryce Harper
DH Jesus Montero
Heyward, Stanton
Both have a good chance to outperform Harper/Upton in any given year. Also, I think that your projection for Profar is a little bit aggressive, seeing as he’s never played above A-ball. I’d put my money on a 34-year-old Troy Tulowitzki rather than a 25-year-old Profar.
YOU MEAN THIS LIST ISNT 100% ACCURATE?!?!
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by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 20, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Also, Heyward and Stanton didn't get traded to the AL like Upton and Harper.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Dec 20, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Thus "MLB all-star lineup"
Doofus ;-)
I’m just having a bit of fun.
by Angelsjunky7 on Dec 20, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Carlos Santana?
The guy looks horrendous behind the plate and it doesn’t look like the team is committed too him long term as a catcher (perhaps a 1B).
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 20, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt this, his time at 1B is a way to up his total PAs over the season. There’s just no way to get peak value from an offense first catcher when he sits on the bench once or twice a week. The Indians also have what would probably be considered an above average defensive back up catcher in Lou Marson, so you see the willingness to continue to let Santana shift over to 1B a couple times a week instead of sitting him on the bench.
The only way I see him switching over to 1B any more than he has would be if they do not acquire a 1B to replace Matt LaPorta (which at this time is a distinct possibility).
Have you seen him move behind the plate?
He has terrible lateral mobility. He is an okay hitter, but with his already beaten body and lack of mobility there is little chance he is still at catcher in 2018 considering he will be 32.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 20, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yes. And where are you coming up with this stuff? “Okay hitter”, “already beaten body”?
His 124 OPS last season was 21st in the AL of all qualified hitters , this at age 25, and the only player younger than him ahead on the list is also the only other catcher on the list in Alex Avila. Reconsider what I just referenced, his age, and his current position as catcher.
Now for this “already beaten body”. What exactly is an “already beaten body”? Is it a body that suffered a single collision causing injury in the past two years? If anything, he’s less beaten because unlike the majority of catchers in the league (a physically demanding position) he only took up the position halfway through the minors. He’s got much less mileage on him than your typical catcher prospect alone.
Additionally I doubt the Cleveland Indians will care that what position he plays in 2018 when he’s playing for another team. A small market team will have the incentive to keep a player like Santana at a position of value through his tenure until he reaches free agency.
by hans on Dec 21, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Another way to look at it was that he was above the 71st percentile of qualified hitters last season. I would say that is explicitly above average, heck only limiting my criteria to qualified players is deceiving and biased against his true value in a negative way. Point being, even taking position out of the equation, to call him an "ok hitter’ is incorrect.
Do you really think he is going to be behind the plate full time at 32?
You can think it, but you are kidding yourself. The guy is already not a lock to get the majority of starts behind the plate next season. Santana hasn’t looked the same physically since his knee was nearly destroyed in 2010. He is a good player but I don’t see him being better then Posey, D’Arnaud, or any other number of prospects as a catcher in 2011.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
In 2011
I would put him ahead of pretty much everyone not named McCann or Mauer at catcher. Beyond that, you start having arguments about his long term viability behind the plate, although I think it will be more around wanting to keep his bat healthy and in the lineup rather than his ability to stay behind the plate.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 21, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
He wasn't even a full time catcher this year!
The guy is not good behind the plate. His arm is bad and he has no lateral mobility. Santana is a fine player but the 2010 knee injury appears to have had a significant negative impact on his defence.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
Forgot Napoli
But Carlos played 95 games at C this year, and was 20th in innings behind the plate in the major leagues. A full time healthy catcher plays about 125-130 games behind the plate. So he played about 75% of a full time catcher’s playing time behind the plate, and added to it 66 games at 1B, for a full 155 game season of excellent production. The fact that he is a year removed from his injury, and Lou Marson has proven he can’t hit at the Major League level, I would expect his games caught to go up in 2012, probably to 110-120 games, and be top 15 in defensive innings. He is, for all intents and purposes, already a starting catcher, and will play even more behind the plate next year. The only concern is that the Indians, like the Twins with Mauer, start looking at moving him out from behind the plate to keep him healthy and his bat in the lineup.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 22, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
His innings at 1B were as much a result of Matt Laporta’s innability to hit at the position and a lack of a legit alternative as it was about the team wanting to get Santana out from behind the dish.
by hans on Dec 22, 2011 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I can think what? Think that he was above the 71st percentile of all qualified hitters last season and consider that to just be better than “OK”?
Here’s these gems again…. “Santana hasn’t looked the same physically…” Since we are going to argue about how a specific player “looks” to you and I, I’m going to staunchly stand by my opinion that he “looks” completely in line with the way he looked prior to the injury. Do you dare to challenge me that what I’m subjectively percieving is not what I am subjectively percieving?
I will take solace that you’ve acknowledged that he is a “good player”. Progress has been made.
by hans on Dec 22, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Looks
good to me, although I think Machado could substitute for Profar. I’d argue 1B is wide-open as well.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 20, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
Pet Peeve
Darvish is nasty. I don’t get the naysayers at all – he’s going to be a top 20 starter. But for $20-25 million a year? That’s a lot to spend on someone who only plays in 20% of games, especially when he hasn’t pitched in the majors.
A workhorse starter is worth roughly as many (sometimes more) PA’s than a typical position player. Ex. Justin Verlander had more BF’s this year than Jose Bautista did PA’s. Moreover, the Rangers need a high end starter to replace Wilson, and Darvish could well do that (and he’s much younger!)
The Feds and AN are having an interesting discussion re: a Gio trade
John, if you wouldn’t mind a sneak peek, what grades are you giving Peacock and Milone?
The monster at the end of this blog.
John question for you
What have you heard about Tsuyoshi Wada of the Baltimore Orioles? He doesn’t seem to be in the same league as Darvish naturally and he is already 30 years old but, where would you place him among the Orioles prospects? I was thinking of putting him either right behind Delmonico at #8 or behind Ryan Adams at #10
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by Nnamdi Asomugha on Dec 20, 2011 3:23 PM EST reply actions
Darvish....
How much does the different ball in the Japanese league play a role here? I wonder if one of the difficulties in projecting Japanese players in MLB might be the difference in the balls.
They changed to the MLB ball last year.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 20, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
No they didn't
They went to a larger ball but it is a different composition.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 20, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Darvish projection
I’d think Texas would be happy if he can put up similar numbers to what Holland put up this past season…maybe with a few less walks. That’d be a pretty good year for his first season in the bigs
Most
definitely. Even if he puts up #3 numbers, it will help the Rangers rotation significantly and he will only get better as he adjusts.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 20, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
One thing that makes me trust the Rangers will sign Darvish
is just how extensively they scouted him. They didn’t put up a blind bid of $51.7 million. They knew exactly what they were getting themselves into if they won the bid (which they did). That leads me to believe they have every intention of signing him, even if the contract is 5/$80.
Now, what I’d like to hear is what people think of how his ego will help or hurt him moving stateside. On the mound, coming over from Japan, I’d have to think a rock star attitude would help him. I hope he won’t nibble at hitters, keeping his walk rate down and GB% up, especially given the infield Texas does have.
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"It’s unusual that Sickels is higher on a low-A prospect than those of us who follow the Rangers’ system closely." -rooster on Jan 1, 2011 12:10 PM PST talking about the son of Judeska and Chesmond
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I wonder if they go long term contract on him
Like 7 years, at $80-90 million, to try to spread the cost and keep him signed longer (a more expensive version of the Matt Moore contract).
by cookiedabookie on Dec 22, 2011 10:56 AM EST reply actions
If I were Darvish
I’d want another opportunity to test the market in about 5 years. He’ll still be young and in line for a monster contract at that point.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
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