FanPost

Evaluating prospects using just stats


As most of you know, I'm a big stats guy, I was reading some archives on BP and I found this http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6153 . It was ranking players based on PECOTA. PECOTA is a projection system, when Nate Silver was there it was really good, but it's pretty much crap after he left, but he did a prospect ranking based on current projected PECOTA WARP and the upside of a player, using PECOTA's long term projections.

PECOTA nailed Dustin Pedroia neither Kevin Goldstein nor BA had him on their top 100 list and PECOTA had him 6th. PECOTA also ranked Tim Lincecum and Evan Longoria higher than BA and Kevin Goldstein. It also nailed Joey Votto, they put him 15 spots higher. It also ranked Jeremy Hellickson and Justin Masterson who weren't ranked by Goldstein or BA. It did rate Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen and Troy Tulowitzki a LOT lower than expected which is not good, also Jacoby Ellsbury was lower than expected. But it also rated Clayton Kershaw higher than expected and Cameron Maybin 25th instead of 6 or 7. Matt Garza was also lower than expected, but Delmon Young was also much lower than expected which is good. It rated Miguel Montero and Daric Barton more than expected and Colby Rasmus less than expected. It put Jeff Niemann in the 90s instead of the 20's like Goldstein and BA. It ranked Peter Borjous 84th when BA and Goldstein didn't rank him. I won't give them a success for rating Nick Adenhart much lower, even though his WAR is very low because who knows what could've happened.

I was inspired by this post because I remember someone saying that tools matter and stats don't. While PECOTA had some obvious misses, it had a couple players very high who Goldstein and BA didn't put on their list, who ended up being very good players. It goes to show that using stats AND scouts, not stats or scouts is the best way to go, and that's why I do that.

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