Community Positional Prospect #32
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2011 2:19 PM EST
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PrintWith 24.6% of the vote, Gary Sanchez is elected Positional Prospect #31.
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RESULTS:
Gary Sanchez: 24.6%
Wilin Rosario: 15.9%
Ryan Lavarnway: 13.0%
Nick Castellanos: 11.6%
Rymer Liriano: 8.7% (write in)
Starling Marte: 7.2%
Leonys Martin: 7.2%
Jean Segura: 5.8%
Gary Brown: 5.8%
Jedd Gyorko: 0%
Cory Spangenberg: 0%
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CANDIDATES: Wilin Rosario, Ryan Lavarnway, Nick Castellanos, Rymer Liriano, Starling Marte, Leonys Martin, Jean Segura, Gary Brown, Tim Wheeler, Eddie Rosario
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IN ROTATION: Billy Hamilton (#29-1.7%), Mikie Mahtook (#29-0%), Jonathan Schoop (#29-0%), Will Middlebrooks (#30-2.9%), Kolten Wong (#30-1.4%), Jedd Gyorko (#31-0%), Cory Spangenberg (#31-0%)
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TESTERS: Javier Baez, Garin Cecchini, Matt Szczur, Marcell Ozuna, Mason Williams, Andrelton Simmons, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, James Darnell, Joe Panik, Matt Davidson, Brandon Jacobs, Derek Norris, Zack Cox, Christian Bethancourt, Robbie Grossman, Matt Dominguez, Bryce Brentz, Trevor Story, Brandon Nimmo, Taylor Pastornicky, Vincent Catricala, Matt Adams
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#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 59.2%
#02 - MIKE TROUT - 38.8% (In Poll #1)
#03 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 52.9%
#04 - MANNY MACHADO - 31.5% (55.1% In Runoff)
#05 - DEVIN MESORACO - 45.1%
#06 - WILL MYERS - 31.6% (51.4% In Runoff)
#07 - JESUS MONTERO - 61.3%
#08 - ANTHONY RENDON - 53.1%
#09 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 46.6%
#10 - NOLAN ARENADO - 33.3%
#11 - MIGUEL SANO - 37.3%
#12 - YONDER ALONSO - 22.5% (45.3% In 3-Way Runoff)
#13 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 26.1%
#14 - BUBBA STARLING - 33.8%
#15 - XANDER BOGAERTS - 25.0% (55.2% In 3-Way Runoff)
#16 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 27.8%
#17 - OSCAR TAVERAS - 40.3%
#18 - BRETT JACKSON - 20.3% (58.7% In Runoff)
#19 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 31.3%
#20 - JAKE MARISNICK - 27.3%
#21 - HAK-JU LEE - 28.0%
#22 - NICK FRANKLIN - 24.3%
#23 - CHESLOR CUTHBERT - 30.3%
#24 - CHRISTIAN YELICH - 27.1%
#25 - JONATHAN SINGLETON - 21.9% (53.8% In Runoff)
#26 - MIKE OLT - 21.5% (67.7% In Runoff)
#27 - ANTHONY GOSE -22.7% (70.5% In Runoff)
#28 - GEORGE SPRINGER - 23.6% (59.6% In Runoff)
#29 - JOSH BELL - 27.1%
#30 - MICHAEL CHOICE - 17.4% (63.2% In Runoff)
#31 - GARY SANCHEZ - 24.6%
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+1
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Dec 15, 2011 2:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
+1
I prefer Arcia to Rosario at the bottom
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 15, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
Why isn't Lavarnway catching on?
The dude hit .290/.379/.563 with 32 home runs last year in AA/AAA. As a catcher! C’mon, Jesus Montero fans, tell me what’s missing for you from Lavarnway.
by purple_haze on Dec 15, 2011 4:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Because he can't catch ... at least not well.
JS loves his bat, but:
If his defense is even just barely adequate, he could play regularly as a catcher/DH.
+1
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 15, 2011 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 15, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
+1
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
+1
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
+1
SF Giants world,
http://forums.sfgiantsworld.net/giants/
by Calvn n Hobbs on Dec 15, 2011 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
James Darnell
Is the guy I like best from the tester group, by a ways. He’s the onkly guy on that list I would say is actually likely to be able to hit big league pitching at a high level, besides maybe Arcia.
Darnell, Dominguez, Nimmo, Bethancourt, Arcia, Matt Adams
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Repost for discussion
Since it went up right at the end of the last poll:
We’re deep enough in that we may want to start giving consider some of the other 1st round bats: Swihart, Cron, Levi Michael, Jacob Anderson, Goodwin, perhaps Jackie Bradley as well. Cron and Anderson had promising debuts in limited action, though Cron got himself injured.
These guys would be "gut" picks in the top 100 overall, but there’s a bunch of similar guys in the testers, and their draft pedigree suggests they should be considered somewhere in the range of 45 onwards.
Wilmer Flores.
Had a poor year last year but is still only 20.
I’ll second Blake Swihart.
A personal favorite of mine: Carlos Perez.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
BP/KG just graded josh bell a 5 star prospect
for all you bell “haters” out there. for comparison purposes. that is better than paxton, better than baez, better than all padres, better than SPRINGER and SINGLETON. starling, bundy, cole and hultzen are the only other 2011 draft picks with 5 star grades thus far.
by DeathSpeculum on Dec 16, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
I hope you washed the jizz off you hands before you pounded out this post
by nixa37 on Dec 16, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i’ve got a sting-esque tantric thing going. will be abusing this scouting report for another 7-8 hours at least.
by DeathSpeculum on Dec 16, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Glad you took a break to come share with us
At least I hope you took a break…
you know
that BP/KG was also the only analyst out there
that said this year’s draft was nothing special right?
by blue bulldog on Dec 16, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
what?
I don’t know that I buy that, link? the mere fact that he has as many five and four star prospects as he does after 7 or 8 teams indicates that is not the case.
by DeathSpeculum on Dec 16, 2011 11:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
i swear i read him saying that somewhere
but i can’t find it. thought it was in one of the chats leading up to the draft.
fwiw, here are two comments he made about Josh Bell on draft day, one positive, one less so.
Scott44 (My Palatial Estate): Money and signability aside, where does Josh Bell rate for you from this year’s draft class?
Kevin Goldstein: As good a hitter as anyone in the high school crop. Not sure anyone can match his power ceiling.
and
Peter7899 (Chicago): If Bell really is one of the best high school bats available… why wouldn’t teams drafting in the top half of the round supposedly taking the “best player available” pop for him?
Kevin Goldstein: because saying you are one of the best high school hitters in THIS draft ain’t saying a ton.
by blue bulldog on Dec 17, 2011 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
I'm going to keep voting for Rosario
but I wouldn’t mind if Lavarnway won.
Most of the rest of the guys listed on the poll, except Martin and Marte, I don’t have going on for a while
by PrincetonCubs on Dec 15, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with the group
. . of players you are bouncing around there PC – Rosario, Lavarnway, Marte, and Martin + Brown
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Leonys Martin
I think there is a good case for Martin here. He was polished enough to go straight into AA ball and, play really, really well.
Gracefull and instinctive outfielder and, baserunner – takes pitches, works the count and, is selective – good hit tool and, decent power. I think he has solid skills across the board and is ready to hold the Rangers’s CF job.
The main reason he is so low is the fixation on his AAA numbers but, considering the hectic year he had and, his pro experience level – he was fine. I thuink he’d already be on the list if he stayed in AA the rest of the season or, was called from AA to the big leagues.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Interesting
point on the AAA numbers. Had he just crushed in AA all year, he probably would have ranked better, but may have actually progressed less. The biggest flaw in prospect ranking if you ask me; it does not like to see a player struggle through a season, which is when he may be learning the most and figuring out how to adjust to become a better player.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Right
The key to me is the word context. You have to judge weather a poor resut is a struggle or, a sign of a lack of enough ability.
To me, A) He wasn’t that bad at AAA anyways B) He was excellent in AA with zero other pro experience. That shows me a lot.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Well the AAA numbers were a larger sample size than the AA numbers
And in the PCL, no less. It is interesting that his BB% and K% basically reversed in AAA, and his ISO dropped to almost nothing.
AA: 11.1 BB%, 5.9 K%, .223 ISO
AAA: 5.7BB%, 12.5K%, .051 ISO
He also put up a 81 wOBA+, 57 OPS+, 62 wRC+ in AAA. This could be a sign of struggling against more advanced pitching.
Now, I don’t think he is that bad, but I don’t think he is as good as his AA performance either. He is a good prospect, and he is fifth in line for me, and 28th on my positional prospect list. But I can understand the argument for others rather than Martin here.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
I see your point
BUT, I don’t see anybody arguing that he is as good as his stelar stint in AA showed. I think his AAA performance is getting more weight. That would be fine if it were showing that he is “struggling against avanced pitching” as you are saying
. My hunch is that it is more ’wearing down after a long season" -one filled with a lot of big challenges, that were mostly met, at that. For me, I say split the difference and, looking at his numbers as a whole – AA and AAA – then taking into accoubt the fact that he went to AA ball – straight from CUBA! – he had a heck of a season.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
So split the difference and you've got a .295/.362/.421 line
How is that MUCH better than .311/.351/.408? And before you say level, Simmons is 1.5 years younger playing 1.5 levels lower.
I suppose you have an argument there
. . . however, I can only call them like I see them. I still see a guy that came straigt from Cuba, crawled out of bed and, raked atr AA for a month. I’m not sure Andrelton would have hit much more than .250 at AA.
I guesd I just believe in Martin a lot more as a hitter.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Andrelton was in his first full professional season
He had less than 270 PA above the junior college level. Going from that to winning a batting title in high A that quickly is pretty impressive.
Perhaps you are right
I could be selling him short. Despite his batting average, i still don’t see aguy who is helping to put many runs on the board though.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
He doesn't have to
If he posted a .270/.330/.370 line with plus defense at SS and average baserunning, you’re talking about a 3-4 win player
I'm not seeing
. . nearly that good of ahitter. That is the entire point here.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
But based on what though?
Other than the fact that he was similar to Escobar and Escobar hasn’t hit. You just said you don’t see a guy who is helping to put many runs on the board. I show you how valuable he can be with a mediocre batting line and you respond, well I don’t think he can hit that well. That’s fine and all, but he doesn’t even have to hit that good to be an average starter. That was just to show how little he has to hit to be very valuable.
It isn't just Escobar
Josh Wilson slugged .387 at the same age and level and has a .319 slugging pct in the majors
There are countless, other examples. Look at any major league infielder who starts for a while and then busts or, is a utiklity guy and, you will see a ot of guys who hit like Andrelton does.
Incisentally, why don’t you pump up a guy like Pastornicky? Same age as Simmons, puts some runs on the board/ juices a ball once in a while?
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Pastornicky doesn't play plus defense at SS
Its unknown if he can even manage the position at an adequate level. He also hasn’t shown much more power than Simmons and wasn’t any better at AA than Simmons was at high A (I’m not putting a whole lot of stock in the ridiculous AAA start).
Point taken on the defense
I’ve heard he is very solid though.
I think you need to give a tad bit more credit to players who have crossed he A+ to AA hurdle. Not everyone does. Thats two players who hit in AA at age 21 – not an easy feat – who you have just glossed over. No?
I don’t think ou have to think that Pastronicky is a .;365 hitter to give him a bit of credit for hitting well in AAA.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
How did I gloss over them?
And Pastornicky didn’t exactly hit well in AA. He posted a worse line than Simmons did in A+, a line which apparently did nothing to make you think Simmons could hit. I mean if Simmons posts a .300/.350/.400 line in AA next year is he moving way up your lists? Or does the fact that he’s 22 instead of 21 make it mostly meaningless?
As for Pastornicky’s line in AAA, I give him some credit for it, but it doesn’t really do much to improve how I already viewed him. He posted a great BABIP but completely stopped hitting for any power.
Dude
You are tiring me out . . .
AA is a much harder level to hit in Nix.. I shouldn’t have to tell you that, should I? If you are impressed with Andrelton, as a hitter, you should be inmpressed with Pastornicky.
As far as Pastornicky in AAA, talk about hard to please?! He had 117 Pa’s. If it is absurd to judge him on his .365 average, it is equally absurd toi judge him on the power he displayed. In such a small sample, I’d just say that he “played well” and leave it at that. He had 8 walks and 11 strike outs, a good sign.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Obviously its harder to hit at AA
I’m not disputing that in any way. I just don’t think it makes that significant of a difference in terms of what I project for them offensively, in part because I give Simmons “bonus points” for doing what he did in his first full professional season. I know on some level you understand the thinking since you mention the same thing with Martin. When you combine a similar offensive profile (and more offensive upside IMO because of his height advantage) with Simmons advantage on defense, I see a pretty big gap between the two.
I'll give you the defense
. . but I’ll have to say they are roughly similar hitting talents. Pasty held his own in Aa and AAA.
If you respect the inexperience situation you should really give Martin an edge over Simmons, in that rergard. Simmons play a season in short ball to get ready for full-season ball – and 21 is not particularily old for high A.
Martin is 23 but, he went straight from Cuba to AA ball! No chaser. Maybe he is just real polished. If so, I’d say we need to start giving more love to Cuban baseball.
Irregardless, you have opened my eyes to Simmons a bit more. Maybe he is better than I thougt.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
On Martin and Simmons
Martin played professionally in Cuba, did he not? Do you really think 270 PA in rookie ball prepares you that much more than playing professionally down there does? I mean I honestly don’t know, but I would imagine their version of MLB (Cuban National Series) is better than rookie league in the US.
I would agree that it does
.but some might not. it is still quite an adjustment to go to AA ball from a foreign country. To me it says something about him, the way he performed.
I also consider Martin’s AAA stint only , statistically and, superficially unimpressive. He had a long year.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
I thought you loved young guys with high batting averages?
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I do
I like guys who hit .386, wirth a lot of pop, at the aghe 18 /turning 19, in full-season ball, in a pitchers league.
I could be wrong about Andrelton, I admit it. I’d like him more if he hit .366 obviously but, he didn’t.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
No one in the Carolina League hit like that though
No one with 120+ PA even managed to hit .320. Maybe the hitting talent level really was that bad, but Simmons still hit over 20 points higher than any other qualifying player in the league.
Believe me . . .
I am not faulting Andrelton Simmons for not being as great as the spleldid Oscar Taveras :)
You know what is funny Nixa? In all this talk about Simmons I always go back and look at a player mpre and, more and see if there is something that I misseda dn I noticed something about him that I like more than I thought . . .
His power. He played in a park that is awfull for home runs and, he ht one. He still had 42 xbh’s though. I think he may be a better hitter than I initially gave him credit for.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
I'll be honest, I didn't really notice until the BA Carolina League list
I mean I thought he was a solid prospect, but looking at his numbers and realizing just how badly the Carolina League as a whole hit this year, he became a lot more impressive. If he struggles at AA next year, I’ll obviously drop him down pretty quickly, but as of now I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt offensively.
I'm getting awfully close to throwing my support behind Andrelton at this point
The combination of plus defense at SS and what appears to be an at least serviceable bat is awfully intriguing. Seems like a pretty sure bet to contribute at the MLB level with his defense, and if the bat can simply to the .330 OBP and .370 SLG range, he’s a 3+ WAR player. If he can actually hit close to .300 at the MLB level he’s a star.
I like him, and he's coming up for me in the thirties
But I have a feeling he won’t get on here until the mid-40s.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
I know, I have a feeling I'm going to be voting for him for longer than I want
I do think its interesting though that John’s enthusiasm for him hasn’t gotten him any more support though. He graded out higher than Lavarnway, Franklin, Gose, Martin, and Olt among the lists that John has completed.
John
. . is a terrific, intelligent, artistic, logical, reasoned person and, I always respect his view and want to hear it. I like him a lot but, he is wrong enough that we can disagree on things.
Why would you see Andrelton as being more valuable than any of the centerfield prospects here who have hit much better and, project to have quite a bit of positional and defensive value as well Nix?
I have Andrelton way down my list because I do not believe he will hit enoughto hold a major league job at this time.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
"Why would you see Andrelton as being more valuable than any of the CF prospects here?"
Because he plays SS, which is more valuable than CF, and plays it at a plus level. That already gives him a leg up on CF prospects. And I’m not sure why you would dismiss his ability to hit at the MLB level. He just led his league in batting average, supported by elite contact rates. He didn’t walk a lot and didn’t show much power, but it was his first full professional season. And honestly, he doesn’t even need to do much of those things as long as he can post an average in the .270-.280 range and play plus defense at SS.
And BTW my point wasn't that people should rank guys higher because John likes them
I’m just surprised that his love for Simmons has seemingly had no effect at all on the communities perception of him.
Well, I'll answer
I can’t speak for the communuity but, I don’t think he’s likely to hit .270 -.280
You’ve seen how hard it has been for a much better hitting talent like Escobar to hit that high.
Shortstops are more valuable defensively than cebterfielders but, these guys – Brown, Marte, Martin are MUCH better hitters than Simmons.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
You do realize Simmons hit .311 this year right?
And that he posts elite contact rates?
You are way too caught up with ARL, to the point where you seemingly disregard the advantage experience plays. Are you really going to hold it against Simmons that he was 21 in high A, simply because it was his first full professional season? And somehow hold his performance there against him despite the fact that he just won the Carolina League batting title?
I am not holding it against him
It is a n absolute fact that hitting .328 in AA at the same age is a better result. Do you think he sould have went to AA and put up those same numbers?
You may have a point about his experience level but, this is a guy who played college baeball right?:
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
You know what?
I actually really, do NOT like Andrelton’s contact rate. Guys who make a lot of contact and, don’t have a lot of power, do not usually turn out that great. We’ll see I guess.
I am not a believer in him. His line for two years doesn njot look like a future major leaguye hitter of any caliver and, what video I have seen backs me up – no hitter.
I could be wriong though but, I doubt it.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
So now a 7.5% K rate is a bad thing?
You have officially jumped the shark…I honestly don’t know what else to say
And seriously, a .300/.347/.392 line from a plus defensive SS in his first two seasons out of junior college doesn’t look like a future MLB hitter of any caliber? He’s a SS, stop holding the lack of power against him. Its simply not necessary for the job he’s going for.
And please, link to the video you’re assessing, because I’ve struggled to find any of Simmons since his JuCo days. If you’d like to add in what you see that you don’t like, that were be even better.
Honestly, my guess of your thinking here
“Well Andreton Simmons numbers are better than I thought they were and scouts seem to like him. This sounds like when me and Nix discussed Delgado and I had to admit I was wrong. How can I spin this one? Oh okay, I got it, I’m going to say Simmons won’t be good because he doesn’t strikeout enough. There is no way he’ll know how to respond to that one.”
I do not do these sorts of things
you will just have to trust my integrity on that one. If I say something, it is an honest perception. Even if it turns out to be wrong.
Too many strikouts are a bad thing. We all know this. But, take a loiok at faikled prospects nunmbers and, you will see a lot of guys who made a lot of soft contact.
To me, I like to see some strikouts (lijke in Escobar;’s case). It shows me aharder swing with higher power potential.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
This is insane...using your logic did Pujols not project to hit for power?
You are holding a lack of strikeouts against guys. I could see if we were talking about guys with big differences in established BABIP or ISO, but we’re not. When they were both at high A, Simmons posted a better ISO with a similar BABIP.
Well
Maybe I’ll believe it If Simmons huits 8 hoke runs in AA next year. I see Escobar as ahaving more power.
I don’t understand the Pujols argument. Its Simmons lack of pop COMBVINED with lack of ks rthat I don’t like.
Obviously I’m going to like a player who hits bombs abnd doesn’t strike out a lot.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
"To me, I like to see some strikouts (lijke in Escobar;’s case). It shows me aharder swing with higher power potential."
Apparently Pujols doesn’t swing hard because you must have strikeout to swing hard. This is mostly a joke, but it just gets to the heart of your reasoning. Holding a great contact rate against someone is insane.
Once again
It isn’t the conrtact vrate, its the contact verate COMBINED with the one home run.
The nminors are littered with guys who didnt hit any home runs or strike out a lot. It isn’t that not striking oiut is a bad thing but, not driving the ball is.
Ovviously Albert Pujols didn’[t have this problem, so you can probably stop saying this if you want to keep communicating at all.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
It would be better if he made less contact
But still only hit 1 HR? Because that’s what you’re saying. If not, then its just the lack of power that matters. The contact rate is still a good thing, just not as good.
Neither is ideal
. . but I don’t see it exactly that way.
That redsoxfauithfukl guy did an entire study on this, based on thuis assertion I made in a discussion with Slamcuctus.
I still don’t understand the finding, to be hinest. we all agree that striking out is bad in a prospect.
Yet we all agree that some of the best prospects and, hitters in the major leagues, are some of the guys who strike out the most!
Yet, we can’t see the strike outs in a positve light, in any way?
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Strikeouts aren't ever a positive
Having great power can offset striking out a lot though because the added power can be more valuable than the losses due to the strikeouts. My point is, if you compare two guys where the power and BABIP is equal, the guy who strikes out less is more valuable hitting (unless he just hit into an insane number of double plays since that could offset the Ks).
Go look up your own video Man, seriously
I don’t have any reason to not like the guy. He didn’t put a lot of runs on the scoreboard in either 2010 or 2011. I just do not see a hitter there – at all.
If you do, that is terrific. I do not see it. I do not think he is realy as talented – as a hitter – as Alcides Escobar.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Seriously?
I was hoping for a link or at least an idea of where you got it. I’ve looked for it myself and I haven’t been able to find a thing. Figured since you had clearly found some, that you might help out. Guess your not into that sort of thing.
To be honest
All I saw, i believe, was a clip from his Juco days – his basic MLB.com clip and, read a few scouting reports.
It supported what it showed me though – a guy who doesn’t walk much or, hit for much power. Though he has inmproved a lot I still see a LOT of untility guys at the major league level who have better offensive stats in the nminor leagues. Josh Wilson was a better hitter.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Josh Wilson posted a .256/.318/.387 line at the same level at the same age
He did this despite having 2.5 seasons of professional experience entering that season compared to 0.5 for Simmons.
Ok, maybe you are right
Maybe the experience things turns out to be a factor but, Wilson has a .318 slugging percentage in the major leagues.
I don’t see either one of these guys as hitting enough to hold a job, is my point.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
But Simmons was a much better
And he could honestly slug .318 and still be a serviceable starter as long as can post a similar OBP to that SLG and play plus defense at SS.
Besides, aren’t you the one who always claims that there aren’t 50 solid MLB guys in a given class? So if Simmons projected to be average, he should have already made the list at this point?
Yes
IF he projected to be average!
I know WAR says some strange things but, I think you have to slug more than .318 or get on base more than .318, to be an average starter.
It hasn’t worked for Josh Wilson, thats for sure.
i agree that If he projected to be an average, major league SS with the bat and, an above average one with the glove, he should be on by now. I’m not sure I see it though.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
He's better with the glove
Everyone seems to agree on that part. As for the offense part, look at Jason Bartlett. He put up a .308 OBP and .307 SLG, but he would still only cost his team ~15 runs compared to a league average hitter over a full season’s worth of games. Therefore, he’d have to be ~15 runs above average between defense and baserunning to be league average. Positional adjustment already gets you 1/2 way there, so you’d just need to be ~7.5 runs better than average combined between SS defense and baserunning. Not something I’d consider that tall of a task for someone with Simmons tools.
Shit
You may have a point. Now we have a decent comp. Now, the questiion is if bartletts develoopment is unusual or, not.
I tend to NOT assunme that a players development was unusual. This is how i make sense of this mess we call prospecting.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Am I also wrong
. .to believe that players with higher babip’s are actually better hitters, most of the time?
I also think that homers should be counted into babips. i know the origin of the stat was to measure balls in play but, it has morphed into measuring moreso how hard people hit a a baseball for me.
Obviously, homers are the HARDEST hit balls of them all right?
Im even more “insane” than you think.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
No that is generally correct
Did I say somewhere that high BABIPs weren’t a good thing? As long as its a meaningful sample size, its a plus.
is his bat
a lot better than Alcides Escobar? because if it isn’t, a 330 OBP is going to be difficult
strikeout rate looks a lot better, though he’s a year older than Escobar was in High-A. iso isn’t different enough to matter for me. and his walk rate is just as terrible.
by blue bulldog on Dec 15, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
Which numbers are you looking at? 2007 exclusively or 2006 and 2007?
If you want to look at just 2007, then Escobar walked 1/2 as much as Simmons, though its closer if you include 2007. But then again, if you include 2006, his overall numbers there look significantly worse (.286/.317/.337 compared to .311/.351/.408). As for their ISOs, I’m not sure how putting up an ISO nearly twice as high “isn’t different enough to matter.”
As you mentioned, Simmons posted better K rates. He did just manage to win the Carolina League batting title. Not sure if that says more about how tough it was to hit there this year or the lack of hitting talent, but take it for what its worth. He was also in his first full professional season, which helps offset being a year older IMO.
Besides, why should Escobar’s failures to develop be held against Simmons anyway?
obvious answer
Because when superior talents struggle at the major league level it doesn’t bode well for the ones inferior to them.
You’d have to say why Alcides struggles were unforeseen and, they aren’t. They are typical. Players of Andrelton’s age and, ability have a terrible record translating to the big leagues.
I still think Alcides will transition buit, it is a struggle and, it is taking time. Andrelton just doesn’t look he is even that good of a hitter.
Oh and, I like you NIxa but, could you do me a favor? Quit reducing all of a hitters record to walks and strikouts? Alcides was a .327 hitter in AA, with more pop rthan Andrelton at the same age.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
More pop based on what? His ISO that was 45 points lower than Simmons?
And Escobar hit 16 points higher in terms of average on his second go round the league. Add in what happened his first time, and his average is considerably worse. Not to mention that Simmons is more highly regarded at this point in time than Escobar was following the season you mention.
No, no, no
Elcides “repeated” high A when he was 20 Nix. He was was a .328 hitter with a higher ISO than Andrelton at the age of 21 in AA BALL. Simmons was 21 last year, wasn’t he?
Higher thought of by who? Escobar was rated #19 by BA before the 2009 season.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
I missed the part where you added at AA, and we had been discussing high A
That is the perspective I was looking at this from. I’m not going to hold it against Simmons that he didn’t start in AA in his first full professional season, so I wasn’t comparing their numbers at the same age, but at the same level (Escobar had 3.5 years under his belt before going to AA). Escobar didn’t crack BA’s top 100 after 2007 (when he played in high A and made his AA debut), while they’ve already said Simmons will crack their top 100 this year. That in spite of the fact that Escobar was younger for his levels. Perhaps scouts liking Simmons has something to do with it?
Perhaps they do
I could be wrong but, I feel like you are giving Andrelton every possible edge here but, maybe not.
We are still looking at a kidin Escobar who became a very, very good ballplayer at AA when he was 21. I don’t mean this to be insulting to Andrelton in any way but, nonetheless, guys who are really good in AA at age 21 have much better tracjk records than guys who were good in A+ at age 21.
This is all before we look at thier scouting reports and, Alcides was just as good defensively and ran way better. Im having a hard time finding an edge here for Andrelton.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
"I'm having a hard time finding an edge here for Andrelton"
Perhaps that because you for some reason decided a low K rate was a bad thing?
Not striking out is fine
. . but a lot of guy who drive the ball strikeout a lot. Driving the ball is a fairly important skill on the offensive side of the ball, isn’t it?
If he had some real power AND didn’t strike out, then I would be less judgemental, concearned, what have you but, I just see a player who doesn’t make hard contact a lot.
I don’t just rate players inverskley, based on how little they strike out. Surely you can understand that right?
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Strawman
I didn’t say you should rate solely on that. You claimed you were having a hard time finding an edge for Simmons. He has a sizable edge in contact rate. He’s probably a better bet to hit for average at the MLB level. And the whole knock on Escobar coming up was the fact that he didn’t hit the ball hard until AA, and people weren’t sure if it was real or a mirage. Turns out it was a mirage.
Lol
Nothing has “turned out”. Alcides is currently in the process of adjusting to the major leagues. The numbers don’t look great but, he’s coming along.
Here’s a question for you: Why would a kid who slugged around .420 in the upper minors at ages 21 and 22, then struggled to slug .340 in the majors, bode well for Andrelton’s future?
You can feel competely free to think that Andrelton ios a caliber above Escobar as a hitter but, I think he is actually less talented overall.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
I don't think Escobar has any effect on Andrelton's future
They are two different players. Many people questioned whether Escobar could actually hit for power even after his performance in the upper minors (where he ISOed under .110 BTW). His performance was almost entirely BABIP driven. That part of his game hasn’t transitioned at all to the majors and that’s why he’s struggling. I just don’t see that necessarily applying to Simmons, especially since his much lower K rate means he can still post a high average without a ton of BABIP luck.
OK
I don’t know who would hae expected Escobar to hit for a ot of power. he has about a .100 ISO in the bigs though too. His average is aboput as babip-low in the show as it was high in the minors though, isn’t it.
I think Escobar is capable for hitting for a decent avgerage like he did in the minors. I would be too surprised to seea a .270-.280 out of him in 2012.
These things aren’t set in stone. Perhaps you are right. maybe Andrelton is capable of hitting for average easier than Escobar has. It’s something to look at and, think about more.
I might be wrong. Just like I was with when were talking about with Delgado. I wouldn’t toot your horn too much about it though Nix. I learn that i am wrong quite often around here. Thats how i learn.
I’m also right a lot too :)
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
I wouldn't be surprised to see Escobar turn it around
The part about hitting the ball hard was more about power than BABIP, though I honestly thought his ISO was better in AA and AAA than it actually was.
I also think Simmons is a solid bet to find it easier to hit for average simply because he seems significantly better at putting the ball in play. We’ll see how well he maintains the contact rate as he moves up, but for now he appears clearly ahead of where Escobar was.
Agree and disagree
He’s ahead in putting the ball in play solidly, you may have convinced me there.
Again, I still see Alcides as being a better player, at the same age, in AA ball. Even though you present good reasons for this.
Here’s the thing … you may have percieved my comparison of Simmons to Escobar as a negative one – when I actually still like Escobar as a big leaguer. If Andrelton is goofd enough with the glove, he may be able to stink for a few years with the bat before he finds his groove too.
I do think your Jason Bartlett comp may be a better one though. It comes down to this a lot though: Id sure like to watch Andrelton play a few games more to make a fair assesment.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Id sure like to watch Andrelton play a few games more to make a fair assesment.
That’s something we can definitely agree on.
Just so there isn't confusion
I mean I would also like to see him play a few games so I could also make a more fair assessment.
hold on
try not to get too worked up about this (though maybe you’re not, and it only reads that way to me)
1) don’t think Escobar’s walk rate in 2007 is indicative of his minor league track record at all. he was basically a 5% BB rate guy throughout the minors except for that year. and has been a 5% BB rate guy in the majors. maybe Simmons could learn to post a higher BB rate. but if you give me straight up 50/50 odds, i’d say his major league walk rate will be 5% or lower as of now. i think you can probably agree with this right?
2) how is he going to get to a 330 OBP if he can’t walk more than 5%? i could be wrong, but you seemed to be projecting him as a 3-4 WAR player with 270/330/370 line. if he has a 270 BA, he’s not getting to a 330 OBP unless he has a higher than 5% BB rate, or he gets hit a lot by pitches.
3) maybe his BA line will be better than 270. it’s possible, especially since i doubt his strikeout rate gets any higher than it is right now. but it’s just dangerous to bet on BA in my opinion. it means that your value year-to-year is heavily suspect to BABIP fluctuations. moreover, the fact that he’s not expected to have a whole lot of power (BA’s scouting report says no more than gap power) makes me concerned that he won’t be able to sustain the BABIP to get a BA much higher than 270.
4) as for why i don’t think the ISO is different enough to matter, again, it’s because he’s not projected to hit for more power. even you projected him at only 100 ISO with your 270/330/370 line. note that Escobar’s ISO in the majors right now is 90. that’s why i said it’s not that much of a difference.
5) Finally, please don’t get the impression that i think Simmons is a bad prospect. In fact, I don’t even think Escobar has failed. I used to really dislike Escobar as a prospect because the industry fawned over him so much (BA had him Top 20….twice…..) when it seemed so obvious to me that the guy was not going to be able to hit. Yet, as much as I realized that the industry overvalued him, I think I probably undervalued him quite a bit too, because defense is valuable, and the position scarcity (and thus positional adjustment) for SS is just so ridiculous. You can be a complete black hole on offense (like Escobar) and as long as you play plus defense at SS, you’ll still be around a 2 WAR guy. Which is what I think Simmons has a reasonable shot at becoming. I just think that if you are projecting him for 270/330/370 and looking forward to a 3-4 WAR SS in the future, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
P.S. Escobar’s failures aren’t supposed to be held against Simmons. They are to show you how difficult it is for a SS to be 3-4 WAR, and what type of offensive peripherals are needed to get there.
by blue bulldog on Dec 15, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
Just to be clear I'm not projecting that line for Simmons
It is something that came up in a conversation about Simmons at one point where someone wondered what he’d be worth if he put up that line. I know it off the top of my head, so that’s why I tend to point to it. It is meant to show how it isn’t hard at all to envision Simmons as a 3-4 WAR player even if he doesn’t improve any of his skills that much (beyond what’s necessary to keep peripherals relatively stable as you move up levels). If I actually thought he would probably turn into that sort of player, I would have been pushing for him much higher than in the 35 range on the positional prospect list.
As for your comment, I just took it that you were only basing it off the high A numbers, because you mentioned Escobar being younger in high A. And no worries, I wasn’t worked up at all in that response. Casejud may have gotten me a little worked up in our discussion (though I’m pretty sure both of us enjoy the back and forth when it really comes down to it), but I’m not someone who generally gets worked up about things said on the internet about people I don’t personally know. You’re not the first person to mention it, so I guess my comments apparently come off that way, but I guess that just has something to do with my writing style.
We push each other s buttons a little
. . but, no worries on my end. IO enjoy a little heated discussion occasionally, I admit. No worries. Let’s just hold onto our respect for one another – even as we get a litte heated – ok?
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Someone
smarter than me wanna give me a breakdown on Rymer Liriano? Admittedly don’t know much about him.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 9:10 PM EST reply actions
Nobody
. . here is smarter than you ‘Cutch. He is the child of Buster Rymes and Francisco Liriano, quite a talent obviously! I will later, I need food. Some see him differently but, I’m a tad worried about his talent level with the bat after he stunk it up in his Cal League cup o joe.
" This is what people are like now: they've got thier cell phone and they're like "Uh . . . it won't ..." Can you GIVE IT A SECOND? It's going to space! Can you give it a second to get back from space? Is the speed of light to slow for you? " - Louis CK
Haha
I dunno know about that first sentence.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 1:44 AM EST up reply actions
Marte
Just wanted to let you know that I’m on the Marte train now:)
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