Washington Nationals Organization Discussion
by John Sickels on Dec 15, 2011 11:00 AM EST
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I am now working on the Miami Marlins Top 20 list. The next team in line is the Washington Nationals, to be followed by the Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, and New York Mets.
Use this thread to discuss the Washington organization. The big draw here is, of course, the phenomenal slugger Bryce Harper, the best prospect in baseball. But there is considerable talent beyond Harper, beginning with Anthony Rendon, Alex Meyer, and Brian Goodwin from the 2011 draft. You also have intriguing pitchers like Sammy Solis, A.J. Cole, and sudden development success Brad Peacock. Don't forget guys who keep exceeding expectations like Steve Lombardozzi and Tom Milone.
If you were running this organization, would you do anything differently? How do you assess the balance between upside and depth in the system? What will you be looking for in the 2012 draft?
As always with these discussions, feel free to point out sleeper prospects or players that you feel are unappreciated or possibly overlooked.
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Nothing I'd really do differently
I feel like the Nationals are in the best position of any NL team over the next five years or so. Strong farm system with potential stars, a good and improving big league roster, and seemingly a lot of cash to spend.
Agreed
They have drafted arguably the best player in the last 3 drafts, and in the past two years, have been willing to spend big $$ in later rounds as well to get some above slot guys like Goodwin and AJ Cole. The new CBA will likely hurt them because they won’t be able to nab as much talent. I’d like to see them become a bit more aggressive internationally as they haven’t done much in recent years (which makes some sense given the organization’s scandals in Latin America). It seems like a good way to provide even more depth to an organization that has really turned their farm system from a weakness to strength in the past few years.
by christophersgeissler on Dec 15, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
There's lots of things I'd do differently
First of all, I’d deal Desmond and move Espinosa over to SS where he provides more value and bring up Lombardozzi or find a stop-gap like Jeff Keppinger.
Second, I would deal Derek Norris. Caught him several times this year and while he’s got great power, but I’m not sold on him sticking at catcher. With Wilson Ramos already beginning to establish himself, trade Norris while he’s rated this highly.
Third, I would find out this year what they have in Peacock, Millone and Detwiler, they’ve all been prospects long enough—especially Detwiler—to find out what you’ve got moving forward.
Hopefully dealing Norris and Desmond would net at least a CF and a middle of the rotation starter if not more. But my biggest gripe is that the Nationals are stocked at certain positions and haven’t traded from their positions of strength.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
I sincerely doubt that Norris and Desmond would net "at least a CF and a middle of the rotation starter"
Dealt as a package, together they might net a CF OR a middle of the rotation starter. Maybe.
Talking about players without talking about their contracts never makes sense.
Desmond could get you a middle of the rotation starter who is paid like a free agent middle of the rotation starter; he’s not getting you Doug Fister on Doug Fister’s contract.
Unless you’re the Yankees and you just spend whatever it takes to get the guy you want, you’re always looking to spend efficiently and get as much for your limited budget as possible.
Not your typical prospect
But Rafael Martin has performed well in every opportunity. Signed from the Mexican League and a bit old, but still intriguing.
He's on my "honorable mention" list
His path is, shall we say, untraditional – but he’s on the watchlist. I hope he makes it!
Get Younger
The organization is currently depending on the DR for all its teenage talent (Deion Williams was the sole American-born HS position player signed in 2011) and has a bunch of 21-23 y.o.’s from the past two drafts, of which only a handful have made it to High-A, which for the record, just fielded its first age-approriate team in seven seasons since the team relocated to DC. This will change back to the previous model of two or three under-22 prospects, two or three 23-year-olds, and bunch of 24- and 25-y.o. OGs in a hurry — especially if the likes of the Meyers and Goodwins and Rendons pass through as quickly as BA breathlessly predicts they well.
Not that I fault the Rizzo drafts per se — they’ve certainly helped rebuild the system from awful to top-third in three years — but now’s the time to start hedging the bets and diversifying the portfolio.
Only
problem with that is the new CBA is going to severely limit the influx of young players, both from the high school ranks and international ranks.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Out of curiosity...
…when did the NCAA increase the number of scholarships each school is allowed to give out?
Not
sure what you are getting at, but presumably the top players will get scholarships and the lower-tier of kids who used to get scholarships will go to lesser schools, and then the lower-tier at those schools, lesser schools, so on and so on until a group of kids just don’t get scholarships.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
No its not
It may cause a couple high school guys a year to go to college instead of straight to the pros, but many of these guys are simply using college as leverage to get more money. When it comes down to it, many of them will be more than happy to take what they can get now over going to college and hoping for a better pay day down the line (when the same spending limits will still be in place).
Disagree
Guys who would have gotten ~1 million dollars this year are going to be offered $200,000 and will prefer to go to the draft to try and become a first rounder. Not all of them, but enough to change the average age of minor league systems a decent bit.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Here's what this side of the argument is missing
Those guys aren’t going to ask for a million dollars anymore because they know they can’t get it. Because of this, they aren’t going to fall in the draft for signability reasons. So instead of getting picked in a round where slot is $200,000, they’ll get picked where slot is maybe $500,000 (remember slot recommendations are going up ~50% as well). Sure it may not be the $1,000,000 they want, but very few kids are actually going to turn that down knowing that the upside is limited anyway.
That’s the whole idea behind the slotting system. You up the slot recommendations while simultaneously moving all the overslot draft picks up to a pick more commiserate with their actual abilities. In the end, the biggest difference is simply going to be in where the guys with leverage actually get taken.
has there been follow-up on Solis' elbow?
haven’t seen anything since a couple weeks ago when they reported he was having pain and was seeing some specialists
One Nationals fan list, FWIW
(1) Bryce Harper (OF)
(2) Brad Peacock (RHP)
(3) Anthony Rendon (3b)
(4) A.J. Cole (RHP)
(5) Sammy Solis (LHP)* (injury concern)
(6) Tommy Milone (LHP)
(7) Matt Purke (LHP)
(8) Alex Meyer (RHP)
(9) Derek Norris ©
(10) Steve Lombardozzi (2b)
(11) Brian Goodwin (OF)
(12) Chris Marrero (1b)
(13) Rick Hague (SS)
(14) Destin Hood (OF)
(15) Kevin Keyes (OF)
(16) Cole Kimball (RHRP)
(17) Robbie Ray (LHP)
(18) Eury Perez (OF)
(19) Tyler Moore (1b)
(20) David Freitas ©
(21) Kylin Turnbull (LHP)
(22) Zach Walters (SS)
(23) Matt Skole (3b)
(24) Jason Martinson (SS)
(25) Josh Smoker (LHRP)
Honorable mentions: Justin Bloxom (3b); Corey Brown (OF); Wirkin Estevez (RHP); Taylor Jordan (RHP); Jeff Kobernus (2b); Sandy Leon ©; Rafael Martin (RHRP); Adrian Nieto ©; Danny Rosenbaum (LHP); Adrian Sanchez (2b); Jhonatan Solano ©; Matt Swynenberg (RHRP); Michael Taylor (OF).
I think there is a decent balance (right now) between the on-the-cusp talent (Harper, Peacock, Milone, Norris) and longer range talent (Cole, Hood, Skole). With a few exceptions the pitchers seem to be much closer to ready than the position players; this figures, since Rizzo has made no secret of his emphasis on pitching. The team has good depth at catcher and in the infield. They haven’t done as well in developing outfielders, which has shown up in their current search for someone to play CF.
There is a lot of high end talent, but with much of that talent looking to graduate in the next two years (Harper, Peacock, Rendon, Norris, Meyer, Purke, Solis, and possibly Cole and Ray) the coming crossroads is what comes after that. Is the talent a fluke created by high draft picks at the right time (two 59 win seasons = hello, Strasburg and Harper!) and willingness to go overslot, or does the organization have the ability to keep the talent coming with higher draft picks and the new CBA?
Apparently the Nationals like to copyright their catchers
Sorry about that …
Nice list
I would go
1. Harper
2. Rendon
3. Cole
4. Peacock
5. Goodwin
6. Milone
7. Solis
8. Purke
9. Norris
10-12. Some combination of Meyer, Lombardozzi, and Ray
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't have a good enough read on Goodwin yet
While he certainly lit up JuCo ball, the combination of getting moved out of North Carolina and, frankly, the Nationals lousy record at developing outfielders (Justin Maxwell? Roger Bernadina?), I may be being overly cautious.
One thing to remember about guys like Maxwell, Rheinhart, and Bernadina
is that the player devlopment staff is much better now that before. Also the drafting and socuting is alot better, leading to more guys like Brad Peacock, and less guys like Josh Smoker
MOAR SEVERINO!
Agreed
with Rendon and Cole ahead of Peacock. I think Brad isn’t going to translate as well the the majors as some people hope. More of a #4 starter than anything else, in my opinion.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Well I am much more optimistic on Brad than that
But the Nats have a very good top four (2 A-, 2 B+ for me). I see Peacock as a solid #2-3, with potential to go beyond that.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Rendon
as an A- with the injury concerns? Shows how ridiculous this draft was.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well I have him as an A-, others may disagree
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don't necessarily
disagree, but as to the draft the #2 pick two years ago got a B+ from John and the #7 pick got an A-. Absurd draft last year.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
Why do you consider Solis an injury concern
and not Purke, especially considering he’s already been hurt…twice?
I think he meant
that Solis is being checked out by doctors for elbow soreness RIGHT NOW. Purke hasn’t been injured for a while and made it through the AFL without his arm falling off (mixed results, obviously, but less of a recent injury concern).
Correct
Just in the past few days reports came out that Solis had made the pilgramage to see Dr. Lewis Yocum, and there’s been nothing since. Purke has been checked out six ways from Sunday and thrown since then with decent velocity and now has a winter to build his arm back up. I’m not unconcerned about Purke’s health, but I’m more concerned about Solis :-)
Peacock ABOVE Rendon
seems like a massive stretch to me.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 16, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Not me
I might be one of the lightest semi-regulars at this site on Anthony Rendon though.
I really like Brad Peacock. Stuff, performance & sterling ratios too. I agree with the commenter above who thinks Peacock can project as a rock solid 2nd/3rd starter & I don’t think it will take long.
Destin Hood
Improved plate discipline (Increased his walk rate by 5% and decreased his strikeout rate by 5%) and his ISO had a pretty sizable spike as a 21-year-old in High-A, 20 stolen bases as well. Lowest BAPIP of his career (.319). He’s a huge breakout candidate for me for 2012.
What do you guys make of Derek Norris? He still posted a good OBP with a terrible batting average by having a ridiculous 18.2% walk rate. Probably not a good bet to stick at catcher, too. Blocked by Ramos and at best average defensively.
In terms of the system as a whole
I think it’s pretty top-heavy. Harper, Rendon, and Cole have a good chance to be stars, but after that there’s a lot of uncertainty. A lot of upside, but pretty serious questions, not unlike the Red Sox’s system in that sense. I’d like Rizzo to aim for some power prep hitter upside in the 2012 draft; apart from Harper (and Norris, I guess), there’s a heavier balance of speed/slap guys (Lombardozzi, Goodwin) and pure hitters (Rendon, Hood). They took a lot of college pitchers in 2011.
there are still those
who think that he’s more of a bullpen guy. I think that he could be effective as a 3/4 starter, with maybe a couple of peak years performing at a #2 level, but would be much more dominant in a setup role. His fastball and curveball are great pitches; his lack of a consistent change-up could undo him as a starter, in my uneducated opinion.
The Nationals’ crowded bullpen might keep him in a starting role. It’s up in the air at this point. I don’t think he’ll be a star, unless you consider a good 3 to be star-quality.
Here is my list for the nationals
you think
1.Harper
2.Rendon
3.Peacock
4.Purke
5.Cole
6.Ray
7.Norris
8.Meyer
9.Goodwin
10.Hood
11.Milone
12.Solis
13.Lombardozzi
14.Taylor
15.Moore
16.Marrero
17.Freitas
18.Martin
19.Perez
20.Keyes
other names of note
Kobernus, Walters, Kelso, Nelo, Smoker, Martinson, Hague, Turnbull, Skole, Wilike, Mandel, Arnesen, Severino, Zinicola, Solano, Lehman, Pena, Rosenbaum, VanAllen, Grisz, Hill, Demny, Testa, Leon, Bloxom, Graham, Applebee, Swynenberg, Jordan, Oduber and Sanchez
MOAR SEVERINO!
You are so done with Corey Brown, aren't you? :-)
I think that, with his late rush in AAA last year, he’s got one last chance in Spring Training and early 2012 to do something. That’s why I put him in the “honorable mention” category. And he’s going to get a chance to do it because the outfield prospects in the system are just getting to the AA level.
last year, Purke would be above Cole
But not this year, with the disappearing velocity.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Purke
is the biggest enigma ever. That’s probably too strong, but what happened to him? Injuries yes, but that doesn’t really entirely answer that question
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
His mechanics were a mess, from what I've heard
Hopefully they can straighten them out next year. If they do, and he returns to form, he will be a top 5-10 pitcher next year.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
which is ridiculous considering they got Rendon, Goodwin, and Meyer as well.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
I posted after the draft
That if you said in 2009 the Nats would eventually draft Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, and Purke, people would have thought you were crazy.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 16, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Coming off last years' list...
Carr (HM), Kimball (16) & Hague (17) all underwent season-ending surgery, and Marrero (14) starts 2012 in the same boat (Hamstring surgery from VWL injury). Meyers (15) was a R5 to the NYY, so he’s gone. JP Ramirez (12) bombed out at high-A POT, while Norris (2), Solis (4), and Brown (18) all stumbled a little, imho.
However, Hood (20), Kobernus (HM), Lombardozzi (13), & Milone (HM) all posted noteworthy numbers in 2011. The draft additions of Rendon, A.Meyer, Goodwin, Purke, & Turnbull may also be projectable, but are unproven.
In terms of overlooked / undervalued players, I’d nominate David Freitas (HM), Taylor Jordan (HM), Randolph Oduber (HM), Wilkin Estevez (SP-AUB), Danny Rosenbaum (HM), Adrian Sanchez (2B-HAG), Matt Skole (3B-HAG), and Michael Taylor (CF-HAG).
"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3
Do you automatically delete someone from prospect status due to injury?
Zimmermann didn’t stop being a prospect because of TJ surgery, much less Strasburg. I haven’t seen anywhere that Hague’s injury was career-threatening.
Hague's injury was actualy fairly minor
wasnt Labrum, or Rotator Cuff, so I am not worried about him.
MOAR SEVERINO!
Best minor league system (imo).
Discuss.
Two superstars can really make the system so good. I see two 5+ WAR players.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
2011 draft guys still have to prove themselves in pro ball. Take them away and you’re left with Harper, who’s obviously still a monster, a group of very-good-but-not-A-level pitchers (Cole, Peacock, Solis, Ray, Milone), a couple of toolsy guys like Lombardozzi and Hood, and Derek Norris.
It’s a good system, maybe top 10, but it’s top-heavyness doesn’t stack up to the insane depth in Toronto’s system or Texas’.
I'll take the star power, thank you.
If you believe in something, I don’t see why you shouldn’t believe 100%.
Huh
“Toolsy” and “Lombardozzi” in the same sentence…I think that’s a first.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 16, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
. I see two 5+ WAR players.
ditto. I, personally, like Rendon more than I like Harper (it’s close, though). I remember watching Rendon two years ago and the kid just looked like he could hit ANYTHING. reminded me of Miggy. if Rendon’s healthy, I could see him have a better career than Harper.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 16, 2011 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
ARL
Harper is so far ahead of everyone ARL wise that i can’t believe this is a serious post…. where was rendon when he was harper’s age? drafted in the 27th round out of high school, i wasnt following draft prospects in 08, so i don’t know if it was completely signability concerns, but even if the commitment seemed strong, i figure if he was a first round talent someone woulda popped him earlier to see if they could sign him.
Rendon was getting ready for his freshman year at Rice, while Harper was destroying A+ and holding his own at AA (the hardest leap to make in the minors)….. Harper could very well be in the majors at the same time Rendon was getting ready for a sophomore season….
Harper has a tendency to attack everything, with maturity and good coaching (ie someone who can get him to let the game come to him a little, not try and make a game winning play every AB) he has a chance to be the best player in baseball, i dont think anyone is calling rendon the best player on his own team.
Not that im hating on rendon, sure if rendon is healthy, and harper never develops beyond what he is right now, than yea, there’s a shot that rendon has a better career. but based on harper’s learning curve, and the aging curve for hitters in general (and one can even argue that harper’s learning/aging curve are even steeper) there is literally no limit on where harper can go (would anyone be surprised if harper was consistently belting 45 hrs from 26-30)
I dont like ARL for pitchers, because there is much more art to pitching, and players can learn new pitches/grips that completely change their profile…. hitting is much more ingrained from your youth, its much harder to overhaul a swing than it is to teach a guy a new grip. and hitting is also much more reactionary than pitching (obviously)…
all in all, rendon isnt in harper’s class, and if you ask me there’s not a prospect in the game right now that is, trout is close, and he’s a complete player ready to contribute, and he’s young and there’s some dreaming to do on where his power could end up… but harper’s got now power, and its not just raw, he’s got usable in game monstrous power…
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
ARL 2
5 of the top 20 active leaders in OPS+ went to college, i dont know the distribution off hand of college v high school draftees, but i HIGHLY doubt its 3:1 in favor of HS…
the first conclusion i come to is (and i dont believe ive ever read this anywhere else so this is my idea get your grubby hands off)…. people’s brains develop until they are in their mid to late 20’s, it would be no different for baseball players…. a player who goes to college doesn’t spend as much time playing/studying baseball as a person who signs out of HS… all the extra time the HS player logs watching pitches, and working on his pitch recognition may benefit them in the long run. This isnt to say that every good player should forgo an education, as their is tons of value in that, but does point out that harper could very well be the best player we have seen in decades, a shot to out preform arod, bonds, etc (not that he will, but we cant say that about rendon can we?)
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
Not a fan of their system in general and Harper in particular..
..much better two, three years ago with Zimmermann, Strasburg, Detwiler, Espinosa, Storen, Marrero, the catching, Detwiler, etc.
Someone mentioned above the system is top heavy with a couple of high picks and not much else, and I agree with that.
There’s a big difference between being a "name player’ and a “player.”
Interesting. You are the only person I've EVER seen who believes the Nationals system was better 2-3 years ago
Not just in analyzing the top level talent, but overall depth. The Minaya and Bowden years were very hard on the organization. Three years ago if you looked at BA, ESPN (Keith Law) or other rankings, the Nationals farm system was consistently ranked in the bottom ten, sometimes the bottom five. Before the 2011 draft the same rankings had the system between #12 and #18 or so, and that was before a 2011 draft which is widely regarded as being in the top three (with some rating it #1) in all of MLB. It will be interesting to see where the system is ranked going into 2012.
But you are entitled to your opinion, so stand yer ground, laddie! We won’t find out for a year or two anyway :-)
Maybe
the same reason I think he’s being overhyped. I’m still unsure whether he can get potential strikeout problems under-control. I don’t think he’s going to bust, but he might hit .260/340/540 which is great, even for a corner outfielder (where he will be plus) but it’s not the .310/.390/.620 people are suggesting or whatever numbers are being thrown out there.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
Really?
Bryce Harper turned 19 two months ago to the day. He went from a juco league to low A and mashed to an absurd extent. He posted the highest wRC+ in the league among players with at least 300 PA. He only struck out 20% of the time and posted a 14.4% walk rate.
Incredibly, he was then pushed to AA, again at 18 years of age and a year removed from junior college, and managed to be above average offensively. He only struck out 17.7% of the time, so where are we getting the potential strikeout problem? He continued to walk over 10% of the time. He didn’t hit for “that much power” with a .140 ISO, but again he was 18 years old and a year removed from junior college.
I honestly don’t think there is much to discuss. Bryce Harper is a generational type prospect. I mean Heyward was an elite #1 overall prospect and he couldn’t hold a candle to Harper. While Harper was doing everything mentioned above, Heyward had an OBP 35 points lower and a SLG 71 points lower in the same SAL when he was 18, and that was still enough to move him up to #5 on BA’s list at the time.
It's even worse that that, really
Harper’s pattern is to struggle when he hits a new level, and then destroy it. He did that in High School, in JuCo and in A ball. After a couple of slow weeks, he was just starting to go on his run in AA when he got hurt. And then when he got back, he struggled the first week in the AFL (started something like 1 for 17) and then just destroyed it. Even given that the AFL is a hitter’s league, he stood out.
He has been hyped, and so a lot of people are sick of that. What is remarkable to me is that he’s really lived up to all but the most absurd hype so far.
Go dc_guy !!! Haters are going to hate...
We Nats fans read about the prospects everyday. We know the ebb and flow. Reactionary posts will just flow off our backs because we see what’s real. Harper is special. He’s got a chip on his shoulders which rubs people the wrong way. Hey, I know Sidney Crosby is a great talent, as a Caps fan, but I still call him Cindy cause he’s not on my team. Time will tell and we’ll see it played out on the field next year…
Heh - don't overread my response the other way
I’m not on the Harper hype train either. I’m just a baseball fan who wants to see the kid play.
I think mentioning the JuCo thing actually underrates him
He left HS a year early to play in a wood bat JuCo league, I believe the toughest JuCo league in the country, and dominated it. So he was in AA essentially as a true college freshman. Not many HS Senior draft picks make AA in their first full professional season.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 16, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
"He left HS a year early to play in a wood bat JuCo league,.."
That’s not why he left high school early.
He left early so he could be the first overall pick in a bad draft and make more money.
I was not stating the reason he left
But what he did after he left – would you rather I replace “to” with “and then”? To me they are the same thing. And from everything that was reported back in summer 2009, he got his GED and went to college to play with his brother who was going into his last year at Southern Nevada, and to play a higher level of baseball, which he himself has been doing since he was a young kid, always trying to play a level or two higher than his age. He was seen as a baseball rat (with a bit of an ego). Now, unless you can prove he would have received less money had he waited a year, your argument is pretty useless. Had he waited until this year, out of High School, he still would have pushed $10 million, and probably would have went in the top three (He still would have ranked first for me).
You really have a hair up your ass about Harper, Kelsdad.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 17, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
"You really have a hair up your ass about Harper.."
Not true at all.
It’s just I’ve seen him and met him and don’t rely on guys like Keith Law who ony add to the hype because they’re trying to sell internet subscriptions, and edited YouTube videos for information.
so he didn't sign that ball you brought?
awwwwwww
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
"so he didn't sign that ball you brought?"
LOL, why the heck would I want his autograph?
says who???
how on earth can you say he left to make more money, or how much money he would have gotten in the draft this past season.
you act like its a fact, and all you are doing is making conjecture.
what i KNOW is that he was too good for juco, with wood bats, certainly too good for HS. sure, maybe hopping into a Wood bat league might have been to showcase himself against tougher competition with more comparable equipment, and yes it might have gotten him more money, but it absolutely doesnt mean he left to get more money….. he left to get to the majors as soon as possible, the kid is ridiculous and your crusade against him is too
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
"you act like its a fact, and all you are doing is making conjecture."
It actually is a fact.
Neal Huntington is on record as saying if the Pirates had the #1 pick in 2010 they still would have taken Jameson Taillon.
So, not only would he not have gone #1 last year in a deeper draft, he wouldn’t have gone number one in his own draft if Washington didn’t have the first pick.
What any of the other 28 teams would have done is irrelevant.
"Neal Huntington is on record as saying if the Pirates had the #1 pick in 2010 they still would have taken Jameson Taillon."
Neal Huntington stands behind his own player? Jesus that makes it fact
Cause it would be a great vote of confidence for Neal to say “WAHHHHH we wanted Harper”
You are playing with hypothetical situations and acting like they are fact.
At this point im just gonna assume you’re a troll
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
what do you expect?
you havent given a single good argument, everything you have said has been based on hypotheticals and conjecture
come back to me with a real reason to believe harper wont be an above average regular (absolute worst case floor [not including injuries etc]) and top 10-15 player in baseball (reasonable ceiling 90th percentile), best player in decades (pie in the sky but certainly not out of the question like 99th percentile)
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
"everything you have said has been based on hypotheticals and conjecture"
You, too.
You can’t predict the future any more than I can.
I can’t prove to you he won’t be a star anymore than you can prove he will be.
This whole site is built on hypotheticals and conjecture; all we do is offer opinions on trades and prospect rankings and how bad the Marlins new uniforms are.
At the end of the day, does anyone really care?
Harper’s not the best player I’ve seen, not even close, and it’s my professional opinion he won’t be what the various media outlets say he will.
But at least I’ve seen him.
Used to be
No longer with a team, but still do contract work.
former scout
With what team? And who are you’re top signs?
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
by PHGold09 on Dec 18, 2011 7:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"With what team?"
Would knowing that change your opinion about anything I’ve said here?
of course
i would take the opinion of a professional scout more seriously than an anonymous poster every day of the week…. if you can prove you are a scout i’ll actually weigh some it it, as of right now ive basically laughed and disregarded everything youve said because it flies in the face of every other report ive read on harper
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
Keep telling yourself that
He just about doubled the all time HR record in his JuCo league when he should have been a senior in high school. There was no reason for him to stay in high school because he wasn’t even being challenged there. Hell, he wasn’t challenged in low-A this year. He posted the best offensive season there of anyone with at least 300 PA.
Harper's make up will stunt his development
Discuss.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 16, 2011 1:18 AM EST reply actions
false
end of post
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
Absolutely agree
First of all, the manipulation of Scott Boras is evident with Harper, using the GED and JC to get him into arguably the weakest draft in history and a $10 million paycheck (read: Boras’ commission) as opposed a year later and arguably the strongest draft in history where Harper would have been lucky to go in the top ten.
His strengths as an amateur will become weaknesses as he progresses, advanced pitching will take advantage of them.
BEFORE the draft some scouts were describing Harper’s ML potential as a “lefthanded Mark Reynolds.”
I’ve seen Harper.
I also saw a 19 year old Ken Griffey Jr and a 19 year old Alex Rodriguez.
There are no comparisons.
Harper and Trout were teammates in the AFL. Anyone who had a chance to see them play side by side could see Trout will be a better all-round player.
Trout hit 5 ML homers in his age 19 season, Harper won’t see the majors in his.
Can we stop the Harper Hype Train now, please?
Again, interesting
Trout hit 5 ML homers in his age 19 season, Harper won’t see the majors in his
.
The manager of the Nationals seems to think there’s a chance that Harper opens the season in DC. Personally I think it’s more likely that he will be brought up mid-season (although the CBA altering the calculation of “Super 2” will make that harder to judge).
I’m tired of the Harper Hype. I’m also tired of the Harper Hate. I just want to see the kid play baseball.
you think harper wouldn't have gone in the top ten?
and what about harper’s record setting JuCo seems to think that he was “manipulated”
the kid was just WAY too freaking good, and clearly on his way to MLB stardom, to continue to face HS pitching, he was too good for JuCo.
“a left handed Mark Reynolds”, i’d like to see some of these reports, because the kid could be a left handed mark reynolds right now (with above average to plus D in RF) and that’s if he never gets any better.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295
Harper is going to be a stud, whether you like it or not
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
The Mariners would have drafted Harper over Ackley.
Don’t be nuts. Strasburg is the only prospect in recent history that was better than Harper. Strasburg was a major league quality pitcher in college.
Left handed Mark Reynolds? Who said that? Find me one source for that? Also, that source will have taken it back by now, seeing as Harper had league average K-rates at AA and A. He was the sixth best hitter in the AFL this year, and it’s youngest player.
You can hate the hype all you want, but don’t be ruled by your hate. Be rational. Harper is very, very good.
We don't know, because we don't KNOW his makeup
There are people who “know” that he is an arrogant, cocky, selfish jerk who alienates people around him and is a bad teammate. There are also people who “know” that he is a smart kid, got excellent grades in school, comes from a solid religious family, is polite, his teammates speak highly of him, is a gym rat and simply loves the game of baseball.
What I know is that he’s an 18yo (just turned 19) who lives with a spotlight on him at an age when very few of us would hold up in a spotlight. That spotlight is bright enough that it will illuminate something to reinforce just about anyone’s preconceived narrative about who Harper is – confirmation bias is a powerful thing. I know that he’s pretty good at baseball, and I’m willing to pay money to see him play on the Nationals. And I’m not foolish enough to think I know who this kid is because someone tells me who they think he is.
"his teammates speak highly of him"
How many have you spoken with?
They've been quoted in publicly available sources
Such as in this profile from last March. Do I take that as gospel truth? Goodness, NO! But neither do I take the word of some poster on the internet who’s made because Harper didn’t sign a baseball for him, or someone who’s sister’s cousin’s boyfriend is a clubhouse guy in the minors and HE says that Harper is a [jerk].
If someone thinks Harper is basically a good kid who is really good at baseball, he or she can find plenty of information on the internet to validate that belief. If someone thinks that Harper is an arrogant [jerk], the same holds true. I don’t have a narrative that I’m interested in defending, reinforcing or attacking. I am just interested in seeing the kid play baseball.
"I am just interested in seeing the kid play baseball."
Which is all that really matters, isn’t it?
by Kelsdad on Dec 16, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Doubt it.
He lives and breaths baseball and appears to have a great work ethic. I’d say that’s 75% of what you want, make up wise. The other 25% is that the player gets along okay in the club. I’ve never heard reports that his own team mates had a hard time with him.
Barry Bonds was a dick. Babe Ruth was smug. Ted Williams was arrogant. These kinds of personalities don’t seem to have any trouble playing baseball.
Ty Cobb ...
Was so hated that none of his ex-teammates bothered to show up to his funeral. Everyone hated him and he hated everyone. Still was a great baseball players, though.
This, like most of the stories about Cobb, was a fabrication made up by Al Stump
People from baseball didn’t show up because Cobb’s family notified them that Cobb’s funeral (held just 48 hours after he died) would be a private service and asked that they not attend. I would encourage anyone actually interested in the whole story about Stump, his lies, and the frauds he unleashed on the memorabilia world to read William R. Cobb’s (no relation to Ty) article “The Georgia Peach: Stumped by the Storyteller” from SABR’s 2010 edition of The National Pastime.
Even if only 25% of the stories about Cobb are true
He was a thoroughgoing bastard and a son of a bitch. Even Cobb described himself as a “snarling wildcat” and was remarkably racist even for the day and age in which he played. Going into the stands and pummeling a handicapped fan and literally murdering (with a knife) a watchman who tried to break up a fight with Cobb had with an elevator operator that Cobb felt was “uppity.”
Even setting aside the funeral issue (and suffice it to say, there are differing accounts of that) Cobb was not liked, and often hated. But the point that I was making (in the context of a discussion about Harper) stands: whatever the truth about his ego/attitude, you can be a complete [jerk] and be one helluva ballplayer.
"literally murdering (with a knife) a watchman"
You’re mixing up the stories. The watchman didn’t die and the matter was settled out of court. The man that Cobb allegedly murdered was a part of a group that allegedly tried to rob both he and his wife. This was another of Stump’s stories and researchers have searched the records of the Detroit Medical Examiner from that time period and have found no evidence of any body found in the sort of condition that Stump described.
As for climbing into the stands, it happened, but the fan in question had heckled Cobb mercilessly culminating in calling him a “half-ni####”. Doesn’t exactly excuse it, but as far as I remember it was the sort of thing where even his teammates (who didn’t particularly like him) stuck up for him. IIRC, he was suspended by MLB for the incident and his teammates were so upset (due to the opposing teams refusal to do anything about the fan earlier in the game when Cobb initially complained the guy was going to far) that we were ready to boycott playing until Cobb talked them out of it.
As for being remarkably racist, that just had to do with the time and location of his upbringing. As he grew older and grew out of those habits, Cobb actually did a great deal for African Americans. His education foundation has paid for thousands of African Americans to attend college and he supposedly (I’ve seen the article quoted but never the original article itself) spoke out in an AP story in favor of allowing African American into integrated professional leagues.
There aren’t differing accounts of Cobb’s funeral beyond the one told by Al Stump, a proven con man whose lies about other Cobb stories have been repeatedly exposed, and the story about it being a private memorial. As for baseball players hating Cobb, yeah many did. He was a fiery competitor, which rubbed many people the wrong way, and many were simply jealous of him. He came to Detroit and within 2 years had completely surpassed established veteran Sam Crawford in terms of popularity, he refused to put up with an sort of hazing, and he was far and away the richest player in the game by the time he was in his late 20s (due to investing acumen).
I understand why you brought him up in this conversation, but I’m simply sick of Stump’s lies defining public perception of who Cobb was. This is a guy who completely invented the story of Cobb’s mom blowing his father’s head off with a shotgun (he was shot twice with a pistol in reality) in order to sell a shotgun Cobb had given him for the most money possible. He was a terrible, terrible human being who took advantage of an old, dying man and his generosity. Seriously, go read the SABR article of the situation.
as opposed a year later and arguably the strongest draft in history where Harper would have been lucky to go in the top ten
Simply untrue. GMs have been polled on this and he would have been a no-doubt top 3 for last year’s draft as well.
Harper and Trout were teammates in the AFL. Anyone who had a chance to see them play side by side could see Trout will be a better all-round player.
Anyone who thinks they can look at 2 high-end talents at age 19 and know for sure who will be the better player over the long term is delusional. Way too much development ahead of them to be able to predict accurately.
Lastly, I disagree with assessment that a) there is no depth to this system, and b) that Cole is behind any of the pitchers. Cole in 2012 could be 2011 Shelby Miller, he’s got that kind of potential, definitely #1-2 upside, similar stat profiles in their age 19 seasons. Peacock’s emergence last year was nice but shows some of the depth in the system, not high-ceiling talent.
I see 3 likely stars (Harper, Rendon, Cole), a few high-ceiling high-risk guys (Purke, Hood, Meyer, Norris, Goodwin), and substantial number of low-ceiling guys who will likely have decent careers (Peacock, Solis, Lombardozzi, Milone, etc). That’s a top 3 system for me, very possibly #1.
Anyone who thinks they can look at 2 high-end talents at age 19 and know for sure who will be the better player over the long term is delusional
Because you can’t predict the future.
But tools and skills give you a good idea, and Trout has more of both than Harper.
Give me the choice, and it’s Trout all day long.
FWIW, Harper was a much better hitter than Trout in the AFL
And if you’re going to say that Trout is a better OF, my response would be to point out that this is Harper’s first season as an OF - he played catcher in HS and JuCo. I don’t hold Harper’s inexperience in the OF against him – if they were even roughly comparable with the glove it would be more of an indictment of Trout than an endorsement of Harper.
Yes, he was
but it means nothing.
Tools matter, stats don’t. At least in the minors.
As an attorney once said
If you don’t have the facts argue the law. If you don’t have the law argue the facts. And if you don’t have the facts OR the law … pound the table!
Kelsdad please go read the back log of NationalsProspects.com about Harper...
Sue Dinem, the guy running the site, has well documented the Nats farm system last year. After reading that back log I’m thinking you’ll find Harper to be what he is, a highly driven kid with superior tools and who’s teachable in his craft and he loves his craft. It like baseball is his profession and his hobby. You’ve got to respect that no matter how you feel about him personally, which of course I don’t.
wow stats matter
a ton. Look at some of the articles on BP. It showed that PECOTA, which just used stats and age and comprable players, was better at rating minor league prospects than Baseball America. This might be the stupidest post I’ve ever seen.
Copied and pasted from the site
Sue Dinem* is a season-ticket holder for the Potomac Nationals, but makes a point of seeing games in Hagerstown and Harrisburg at least once a summer. When the PNats are away on the weekend, Sue finds a minor-league game somewhere to watch, and generally attends 70-80 baseball games a year up across several states. * That’s a phonetic spelling of “pseudonym.” Life’s tough for a boy named Sue.
MOAR SEVERINO!
because Blue Jays lost Molina
I would have to put the Nationals #1
My top 10 would be
1. Nationals
2. Blue Jays
3. Cardinals
4. Rays
5. Royals
6. Padres
7. Diamondbacks
8. Rangers
9. Mariners
10. Red Sox
I am not a fan of the Rangers system. A lot of hype to me
Let's do a rough rating since we're all pretty impatient
just for the purposes of depth and comparison to Texas, everyone I see as a B- or above.
Harper A
Rendon A-
Peacock B+
Cole B+
Milone B
Meyer B
Hood B
Goodwin B/B-
Lombardozzi B-
Solis B- (injury concerns)
Ray B-
Norris B-
Purke B- (injury concerns)
13 in the B- and above range by my vaguely semi-educated opinion, compared to 15 ranked by John for Texas. B and above is 8 vs. 9, Texas. B+ and above is 2-4, Nats. Jays still have 7 B+ prospects according to John, no A’s, though. The Nats are closer than I thought to the elite systems, and maybe if you put a heavy emphasis on big upside and squint a bit you can slot them #1.
It’s an interesting system to be sure, and if Meyer turns out to be frontline starter material (control problems), Rendon proves his health, Harper continues to mash, Goodwin’s hit tool proves itself, Solis is healthy, Norris rebounds, Cole continues to develop, Hood improves upon his breakout in 2011, Purke somehow resurrects himself into a frontline-ish starter… there’s all the potential in the world, but until some of these guys prove themselves, I’ll remain conservative. The group of perspective graduates (Peacock, Milone, Lombo) screams “good-not-great” to me.
The problem is
though they are both A’s, Harper is not equal to Profar, Harper is much better than Profar. HArper is a generational prospect, and I’m a huge fan of Rendon and Peacock. I might put Peacock as an A-. I think you’re underrating Norris. I did some studies that walk rate translates the best of any stat to major league success. NOrris has a very high walk rate and got very unlucky with BABIP. Just my opinion, but I think the Blue Jays and Cardinals are far ahead of the Rangers.
be careful
I would think that walk rate alone doesn’t tell you much about major league success, unless paired with K rate.
A high walk rate usually means good plate discipline, but in norris’ case im afraid there is a little too much passivity. His High K rate means that he also has a lot of swing and miss.
without looking at his minor league numbers, i dont see why we should expect norris to be any better than iannetta
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
+1
He had a 27.7% K rate last year and career minors 23%. For comparison’s sake, Adam Dunn’s career rate is 27.6% and Mickey Tettleton’s was 22.8% (a low average, high OBP, high SLG catcher that’s often used as a comparison). Iannetta looks like a good comp right now, although Norris should offer a little more power. I think his ceiling probably looks a cross between pre-2011 Napoli and Iannetta.
BB% has a higher correlation to major league success
than BB/K rate. K% shows no correlaion to major league success.
"Harper is a generational prospect.."
Based on what?
I’m curious as to what criteria you used which led to that statement.
Can’t speak for PHGold, but here is how I see it.
A-Rod put up a .953 OPS over his age 18 season spread over 3 levels.
Ken Griffey Jr put up a .972 OPS over his age 18 season over A-AA.
Harper put up an .894 OPS in A-AA in his age 18 season. If you tack on his AFL stats (35 ABs, .343/410/.629) he easily breaks the .900+ OPS mark.
That’s generational talent to me – you can count on 1 hand the # of 18-year olds who have put up .900 OPS seasons across more than 1 level in the last 20-25 years. Pretty sure most definitions of “generation” = 20-year period.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bryce-harper-best-prospect-ever/
Generational weren't my words
not that I disagree with them.
Those numbers arent adjusted for league context, but for quick and dirty comparison they work.
I would think that the difference in coverage between arod/griffey and harper, might alter how harper approaches the game. comments from the the AFL seemed to indicate that he was trying to change the game every single AB/play… if someone could teach the kid that all he should be doing is letting the game come to him and let his natural talent take over, he could be the best player in the game in short order. i mean, upton is on the cusp of superstardom and i think everyone will agree that harper is far more impressive than upton was at the same age (in his age 19 season, upton put up ~ a .950 OPS in A+ and AA). Harper will almost certainly start at AA (with an outside shot at AAA/MLB) and have a chance to actually contribute in the majors, rather than just getting his feet wet.
I’m not saying that Harper is the BEAST PLAYER EVER OMG11, but he’s the best prospect we’ve seen in along time, and there’s no reason to be pessimistic about his ability to become the best player in baseball.
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
Harper might be a better hitter than Profar
But Profar plays the position in baseball at which it’s almost impossible to get a good bat, and plays it very well from all reports that I’ve heard.
Harper: .297/.392/.501 (across A-AA)
Profar: .290/.390/.493 (only A ball)
Even when you take into account that Harper played a third of his plate appearances at AA, which is an insanely high level for a an 18-yo, the numbers aren’t different enough that you can discount the fact that Profar plays a much more important offensive position. They’re both 18 years old. In terms of the best position players in the minors, Profar is right, right, right after Harper and Trout. He’s probably a little further away than the two of them, but he’s still a fantastic prospect that’s on the same level as the top 2.
I consider Profar a tier behind
Tier 1
Harper
Tier 1 1/2
Trout
Moore
Tier 2
Teheran
Miller
Profar
Tier 3
Mesoraco
Machado
Walker
Bauer
WNFF.net Top 30 prospects
WNFF (Top 30)
1. Bryce Harper – OF
2. Anthony Rendon – IF
3. Matt Purke – SP
4. A.J. Cole – SP
5. Brad Peacock – SP
6. Derek Norris – C
7. Alex Meyer – SP
8. Destin Hood – OF
9. Chris Marrero – IF
10. Brian Goodwin – OF
11. Robbie Ray – SP
12. Steve Lombardozzi – IF
13. Sammy Solis – SP
14. Tom Milone – SP
15. Tyler Moore – IF
16. Michael Taylor – OF
17. Matt Skole – IF
18. Erik Komatsu – OF
19. Eury Perez – OF
20. Kevin Keyes – OF
21. Brad Meyers – SP
22. Wirkin Estevez – SP
23. David Freitas – C
24. Rick Hague – IF
25. Jeff Kobernus – IF
26. Daniel Rosenbaum – SP
27. Kylin Turnbull – SP
28. Zach Walters – IF
29. Jack McGeary – SP
30. Randolph Oduber – OF
Personally I would have added Martinson to the list, and move Estevez up… but otherwise I like our list.
Komatsu and Meyers aren't with the Nationals at the moment
They were lifted in the Rule 5 draft, Komatsu to the Cardinals and Meyers to the Yankees.
About prospects no longer on roster
Yes, Komatsu and Meyers are gone… but we put together that list in late September… so obviously we couldn’t have seen those guys not being in the organization when Sickels released his prospect list!
by Lintyfresh85 on Dec 17, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
not that i dont you believe you
Who are you’re top 5 signs?
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
by PHGold09 on Dec 18, 2011 2:15 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
This list is more aggressive on the 2011 draftees than I am
My caution concerning players who haven’t played professionally showing through :-)
30 deep and no Josh Smoker – once bitten twice shy, I guess. He showed me enough in Potomac to get back on my radar, although 2012 is probably it for him. Ah, who am I kidding, he’s a lefty who throws hard, he’s going to get a LOT of chances!
My take on some guys i've seen
Harper: Monster Power Potential but I see 150+ K’s a year, he looked like a little leaguer vs. Drew Pomeranz right before the Ubaldo trade and this was Poms 1st AA start.
Peacock he can be a 3, but I am actually more concerned about his curveball than changeup. You can read when he is going to throw his curve, he slows his arm action and got away with hanging 3 of them in a game where it was 85 and soup outside.
Matt Skole will be a good bench bat in the majors
Saw Rendon, Meyers, Goodwin, and Purke in Auburn. Meyer is a legit 6’9, Rendon I don’t think was his listed height of 6, probably 5’11, Goodwin wanted to play in the playoffs but the Nats didn’t let him, Purke looks goofy in those glasses he has.
Also if Wirkin Estevez can get a breaking pitch he can be a 3
He has a plus changeup that gets batters to swing and miss a lot
+1
Wirkin is a guy to watch next year. Held his own jumping from DOSL to Low-A. Pretty good walk/SO rates. His FIP was much lower than his ERA.
LOVE LOVE LOVE ESTEVEZ
If he can put weight on his wiry frame, I could see his 92-93 jump up to 95-96 and he could be a force.
Super high on him.
by Lintyfresh85 on Dec 17, 2011 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Bryce Ortega
Was old for the Low-A level but he did pretty well down there. Any reports on him?
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