Community Positional Prospect #31
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 14, 2011 1:38 PM EST
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PrintWith 17.4% of the open vote and 63.2% of the runoff , Michael Choice is elected Positional Prospect #30.
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RESULTS:
Michael Choice: 17.4% (63.2% In Runoff)
Gary Sanchez: 20.3% (36.8% In Runoff)
Wilin Rosario: 14.5%
Ryan Lavarnway: 13.0%
Starling Marte: 10.1%
Jean Segura: 5.8%
Leonys Martin: 5.8%
Nick Castellanos: 4.3% (write in)
Will Middlebrooks: 2.9%
Rymer Liriano: 2.9%
Kolten Wong: 1.4%
Gary Brown: 1.4% (write in)
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CANDIDATES: Gary Sanchez, Wilin Rosario, Ryan Lavarnway, Starling Marte, Jean Segura, Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos, Jedd Gyorko, Gary Brown, Cory Spangenberg
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IN ROTATION: Tim Wheeler (#28-0%), Billy Hamilton (#29-1.7%), Mikie Mahtook (#29-0%), Jonathan Schoop (#29-0%), Will Middlebrooks (#30-2.9%), Rymer Liriano (#30-2.9%), Kolten Wong (#30-1.4%)
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TESTERS: Eddie Rosario, Javier Baez, Garin Cecchini, Matt Szczur, Marcell Ozuna, Mason Williams, Andrelton Simmons, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, James Darnell, Joe Panik, Matt Davidson, Brandon Jacobs, Derek Norris, Zack Cox, Christian Bethancourt, Robbie Grossman, Matt Dominguez, Bryce Brentz, Trevor Story, Brandon Nimmo, Taylor Pastornicky, Vincent Catricala, Matt Adams
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#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 59.2%
#02 - MIKE TROUT - 38.8% (In Poll #1)
#03 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 52.9%
#04 - MANNY MACHADO - 31.5% (55.1% In Runoff)
#05 - DEVIN MESORACO - 45.1%
#06 - WILL MYERS - 31.6% (51.4% In Runoff)
#07 - JESUS MONTERO - 61.3%
#08 - ANTHONY RENDON - 53.1%
#09 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 46.6%
#10 - NOLAN ARENADO - 33.3%
#11 - MIGUEL SANO - 37.3%
#12 - YONDER ALONSO - 22.5% (45.3% In 3-Way Runoff)
#13 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 26.1%
#14 - BUBBA STARLING - 33.8%
#15 - XANDER BOGAERTS - 25.0% (55.2% In 3-Way Runoff)
#16 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 27.8%
#17 - OSCAR TAVERAS - 40.3%
#18 - BRETT JACKSON - 20.3% (58.7% In Runoff)
#19 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 31.3%
#20 - JAKE MARISNICK - 27.3%
#21 - HAK-JU LEE - 28.0%
#22 - NICK FRANKLIN - 24.3%
#23 - CHESLOR CUTHBERT - 30.3%
#24 - CHRISTIAN YELICH - 27.1%
#25 - JONATHAN SINGLETON - 21.9% (53.8% In Runoff)
#26 - MIKE OLT - 21.5% (67.7% In Runoff)
#27 - ANTHONY GOSE -22.7% (70.5% In Runoff)
#28 - GEORGE SPRINGER - 23.6% (59.6% In Runoff)
#29 - JOSH BELL - 27.1%
#30 - MICHAEL CHOICE - 17.4% (63.2% In Runoff)
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actually
I think that was meant as his vote as well, since this is his only post in this thread.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 15, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Dec 14, 2011 3:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 14, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
+1
Will hit and is close to the majors, so that’s good enough for me at this point. But his time at catcher is a clock that is ticking down.
by purple_haze on Dec 14, 2011 5:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
In BA chat today,
they said that Brown still would have ranked #1 if SF still had Z Wheeler, who is already on our list at #36. Brown really should be getting a lot more love. I see him as similar to
Marisnick, who also is on our list at #40.
In BP chat today...
Jason Parks said that he prefers Brown (present and future) to Gose, who is #27 among our hitters.
+1
SF Giants world,
http://forums.sfgiantsworld.net/giants/
by Calvn n Hobbs on Dec 14, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 14, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
We’re deep enough in that we may want to start giving consider some of the other 1st round bats: Swihart, Cron, Levi Michael, Jacob Anderson, Goodwin, perhaps Jackie Bradley as well. Cron and Anderson had promising debuts in limited action, though Cron got himself injured.
These guys would be “gut” picks in the top 100 overall, but there’s a bunch of similar guys in the testers already.
very soon i will be condemded to give my vote to Oswaldo Arcia untill he finally gets enough consideration
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 14, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm
Not super athletic, talented lefty hitter, not great reports in the field . . . next Raul Ibanez? If he is, he belongs on the list soon. I keep overlooking him but, I think he’s a real hitter and, there aren’t many left in this field.
" Kenny G has a Christmas album out this year. Hey, happy birthday, Jesus! Hope you like crap! " - Norm MacDonald
he is a hitter perfect for the A.L. game
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 14, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Sanchez vs. Lavarnway
Again, I don’t get the votes for Sanchez over Lavarnway, and I am a Yankees fan who likes Sanchez. Self-plagiarized:
Lavarnway has a better chance of sticking behind the plate, but Sanchez could get to the same point. Gary’s best tool is his power, but Ryan’s power is better, and is more ML-ready. Ryan walks more, strikes out less and has a higher ISO slugging, and is ready to do it in the majors next year. Granted, Gary has five years to get to where Ryan is right now, but for this prospect list, Ryan Lavarnway should be ahead of Gary Sanchez. Best case scenario Sanchez becomes what Lavarnway is now. The problem is he is still far off from AAA, and has some serious concerns with his approach at the plate. He has a lot of potential pitfalls to overcome just to be where Lavarnway is now. If I though he could be better than that, I would be much more willing to consider putting him higher on the list (as it is, I have Sanchez at 25 on my positional list). I just don’t see his ceiling being higher than Lavarnway’s, and Lavarnway is a much safer bet at this point.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 14, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Agree...
But I like Rosario even better than Lavarnway. He actually is a good defensive catcher, and the certainty he stays behind the plate and age advantage (year and a half) makes up for his lack of walks, in my view.
Wilin strikes out at about the same rate, but walks a third of the amount that Ryan does. I like Wilin, but I can’t put him ahead of Ryan – he just doesn’t have the same floor or ceiling offensively, and I don’t think his defense can completely make up the gap.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 14, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
I respect your argument but disagree with the view that Rosario’s defence can’t make up the gap. Aside from the value distinction, Lavarnway still has a chance of having to move off of C – maybe only 10%, but that’s a significant blow to his average expected value.
Additionally, and I’d love to see some study on this, it seems to me that especially for power hitters, their walk rates tend to get closer together at the major-league level. Guys with 13% BB rates don’t intimidate pitchers as much, and the free-swingers apparently learn a little patience. Which is a long way around of saying that minor league BB rates don’t mean quite as much for me as for others. To put a number on it, I’d guess I put 80% of the normal weight on BB rates.
by gabrielsyme on Dec 15, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Rosario
Just can’t stomach the fact that he’s put up basically a sub-.300 OBP percentage for his minor league career. Whatever his virtues (defense, some power), he’s going to be a limited asset in my book.
Exactly
He can be a Miguel Olivo with better defense. So 1.5-2 WAR offensively, and another 1.5 WAR defensively, probably a peak of 4 WAR – good for a catcher – but settling in as a 3 WAR defense-first player. Definitely a starter, but not a star. I have him in the thirties for positional players, even after a pretty bad 2011, so I still like him. But I see Lavarnway settling in as a 3.5-4.0 WAR offensive player with -1-0 defensive WAR, peaking at a 5 WAR offense, 0-0.5 WAR defense catcher. So similar career values (from different sources), but a better peak for Ryan, and Ryan has for me a much higher chance of succeeding in the majors than Wilin right now.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Sanchez v Lavarnway
-Why is Lavarnway’s power better? Sanchez put up an ISO in A-ball as a 19-year old last year that was at least comparable to Lavarnway’s at the same level (Lavarnway’s was a touch higher, but Sanchez had arguably a down year), and Lavarnway turned 22 halfway through that season. I think there’s a good chance that Sanchez does in fact have a higher ceiling.
-Lavarnway is probably not suited to be a catcher long-term; at least with Sanchez we can dream on improvement. He’s at least got a good arm, and improved behind the plate this year.
-The ARL difference is pretty huge. I don’t get how he doesn’t have a higher ceiling.
I might be totally wrong, but just throwing it out there – that was why I had Sanchez higher, and have been voting on him for a couple of rounds now.
+1 to all of this
I also voted for Lavarnway a round or, two ago, so its a tough call here. There is a compelling argument for Sanchez if you think he’ll develop and, for Lavarnway If you don’t think he will
" Kenny G has a Christmas album out this year. Hey, happy birthday, Jesus! Hope you like crap! " - Norm MacDonald
I think there is a much better chance of Lavarnway producing in the majors than Sanchez at this point
That is why I have him 6 spots higher on my positional list.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Just wanted to point out
Sanchez was 18, not 19 this season. Just turned 19 a couple of weeks back. Sanchez does have a higher ceiling and more power potential, though Lavarnway would have the edge in present power(as you would expect for a player 5 years older). I hate to parse down a fairly small sample for Sanchez, but after hitting .209/.250/.299 in April he hit .269/.358/.581 the rest of the way. Sanchez has been mentioned as having a higher ceiling than Montero, and while I don’t know where cookiedabookie has Montero ranked, Sanchez posted a better BB% and ISO than Montero at the same age in the Sally.
Yeah, the K’s are an issue, though again after a 4/25 BB/K ratio in April Sanchez posted a 32/68 mark the rest of the way. I haven’t voted for him yet because he’s the next hitter after Leonys Martin on my list, but I’d take him over Lavarnway without much thought and above the last 10 names we’ve put on the list as well(and some even further up the list).
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
Can we really expect Sanchez to put up a .600+ slugging percentage in AAA?
If we do, that has to be the ceiling of expectations, no? Yes I know its a small sample, but if you get to use it, so do I :). I really see Sanchez getting to where Ryan is now as best case scenario.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
I don't care if Sanchez slugs .600 or better in AAA
Minor league production doesn’t equal ceiling or upside to me. I also don’t see any chance Lavarnway does at the MLB level, and that’s where it really matters to me. To your point about defense below, I’m pretty sure there were reports that Sanchez made big strides defensively after his little temper tantrum episode or whatever the issue was there. I will try and look for them later, but I’m fairly confident that passed balls were a major area of improvement for him at that point.
Maybe I’m underrating Lavarnway because he hasn’t had great scouting, been young for a level or had a very strong draft pedigree. Because of those things though, he’s the type of hitter I want to see hit at the MLB level before declaring him a 3+ win player with the bat(unless I’m misreading you and you’re including his positional adjustment and playing time WAR numbers in that offensive projection, though since that would be close to 3 wins on it’s own I’m guessing your not).
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
I will give you the ARL is significant
But it also comes with some significant issues Sanchez has to overcome.
And Lavarnway is much more suited to be a catcher long-term than Sanchez, unless Sanchez comes out of nowhere to become a better backstop.
Lavarnway minor league catching stats:
.184 passed balls per game
.045 errors per game
32% caught stealing
Sanchez minor league catching stats:
.375 passed balls per game – 2x more than Lavarnway
.143 errors per game – 3x more than Lavarnway
29% caught stealing
They are both huge for catcher, and Gary will probably be bigger by the time he reaches the majors. But he has a lot of work to do to get to the same level of catching competency as Lavarnway has right now.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
Am I going crazy or was Ryan Lavarnway forgotten?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
Looks
like I’ll be voting Marte for a while. I think people are overlooking the floor he has because of his ability with the glove.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 14, 2011 5:17 PM EST reply actions
So
What do you think makes Starling Marte a better player thean Leonys Martin ’Cutch?
I see simialr power, similar average, similar defense, similar baserunning and one who has a really good batting eye and is selective/ and one who isn’t.
" Kenny G has a Christmas album out this year. Hey, happy birthday, Jesus! Hope you like crap! " - Norm MacDonald
Looking
at Martin, maybe he’s been underrated by everyone, including me. I just see Marte being able to put up .310/.345/.485 type lines while playing plus or even plus-plus CF defense and adding 30-40 stolen bases as he learns to run effectively.
If Martin projects to do that as well, then he needs off the board as well.
FWIW, I’ve seen Marte several times in person (back when he was at WV) and have never seen Martin, just to say I’m more familiar with Marte.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 15, 2011 2:30 AM EST up reply actions
That is a really optimistic view of Marte
That is what, a 5+ WAR center fielder? If that was anywhere near where I expected him to hit, he would be a top ten positional player.
by cookiedabookie on Dec 15, 2011 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Voting Closed
Gary Sanchez pulls away from the pack a bit and wins this one.
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