Further Thoughts on the Toronto Blue Jays Farm System
by John Sickels on Dec 1, 2011 11:31 AM EST
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Additional Thoughts on the Blue Jays Farm System
Here are some additional thoughts on the Toronto Blue Jays farm system, answering some questions that people posed in the comment thread.
***If he still qualified as a prospect, Brett Lawrie would be a pure Grade A, top of the Blue Jay list, and a Top Five prospect in baseball. He might even rank Number Two behind Bryce Harper, although I won't be able to answer that until I get all of my grades complete and the Top 50 list done.
**If he still qualified as a prospect, Henderson Alvarez looks like a very strong Grade B/borderline B+ to me, which would put him in the 8-10 range on the Blue Jay list.
**Some people have asked about Gose (Grade B) vs. Marisnick (Grade B+), pointing out that Gose is more toolsy and has experience at a higher level. That's true, but Marisnick is nine months younger, which matters, and his tools, while not quite as good as Gose's, are still impressive. He's shown a better feel for hitting when I've seen him. Gose's tools are among the best in the game, and it is possible I'm not cutting him enough slack. I will think more about it, but the strikeout rate is high enough to keep me concerned.
**I'm probably going to bump Hutchison up to a B+.
**As I wrote in the Top 20 piece, ranking all the pitching prospects is tough, and many people are surprised about Molina coming out on top. Here is how I reasoned this out. (I am ignoring the youngest guys like Sanchez, Cardona, and Osuna for purposes of this exercise).
As long-time readers know, my prospect lists are based on a hybrid approach between sabermetrics and traditional scouting. On pure upside, I would rank the Jays top pitching group about like this: Syndergaard, Norris, Nicolino, Molina, Hutchison, McGuire. However, given the lack of full-season data for the top three pitchers, sabermetrically I would go Molina, McGuire, Hutchison, Nicolino, Syndergaard, Norris.
Another way to look at it:
Molina: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 3 points, SABEMETRICS: 6 points: TOTAL:9
Syndergaard: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 6 points, SABERMETRICS: 2 points: TOTAL:8
Nicolino: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 4 points, SABERMETRICS: 3 points: TOTAL; 7
Norris: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 5 points: SABERMETRICS: 1 point: TOTAL: 6
McGuire: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 1 point: SABERMETRICS: 5 points: TOTAL: 6
Hutchison: UPSIDE/SCOUTING: 2 points, SABERMETRICS: 4 points: TOTAL 6
This oversimplifies things. I didn't actually make a list like that when thinking through the issue, but it illustrates how things turned out the way they did.
The thing here is that I think Molina's stuff is underrated and I have reports that are more enthusiastic than a lot of things you see publically available. I realize that putting Molina number one bucks consensus. The rumors that Molina may move to back to relief, if confirmed, might change the ranking by the time the book is ready to publish.
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Molina as a closer?
I’ve heard those rumblings as well – do you think he has the “stuff” do be a shutdown reliever/closer?
Thanks John, you’re insight on the Jays farm system has been incredible.
molina
He does a little something funky with his arm at the end of his delivery, doesn’t he?
He just seems to be raising it. I don't think the "recoil" so many people have mentioned
And that Gersh told Al and I about is all that significant in this video. It isn’t like his arm is snapping up.
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I was looking at his arm just prior to releasing the ball
Lots of deception in his delivery. No wonder his splitter gets such good results.
ah gotcha.
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ya it seems like the ball is released later than it actually is
pretty deceptive
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Dec 1, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
long term
I think what will remain to be seen is if he increases that recoil as the adrenaline starts pumping and he continues to climb the ladder. As you overthrow, a slight pull back can become a more intense recoil. Obviously, the shoulder doesn’t like that. I think his current recoil is somewhat alarming and would need to be watched. But I’m sure greater minds that me are already doing that. He’s beginning to strike more guys out, so any adversity might lead to overthrowing – whereas before a pitcher’s pitcher might not try to overthrow. Harnessing the power of the K can be sometimes bad for young pitchers with potentially faulty mechanics.
remind me a bit of Carlos Zambrano
especially in his finish. Molina keeps his glove higher. I remember Z used to have that exaggerated bounce back in arm at the end of delivery too, but now it’s lot less noticeable.
by PrincetonCubs on Dec 1, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Gose
Keep him at a B (at best) just because a few prospects have been able to improve contact rates doesn’t mean we should expect every toolsy guy to do so. Gose’s contact rates are a huge problem for his further success.
-peter
“Story of my life,” Gose said. “If I could stop swinging at the breaking ball in the dirt, I’d be a different player.”
Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2011/11/07/20111107arizona-fall-league-producing-big-talent.html#ixzz1fJEs5RuO
I’ve wondered how this affects his projection. Some guys make this adjustment, some don’t.
It always helps to know your weaknesses. I think this is probably a good sign for his ability to finally make the adjustment.
or not
I mean, if he knows his weakness and already has found out he can’t correct it, there may be less improvement possible than we had hoped.
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he just turned 21, plays in double A and has been more of a athlete than a baseball player. I think that should be expected. If he is still having the same problems by the time he is 23 then its really worrisome but right now, he is young to overcome it.
+1
I’m more intrigued by the improved HR’s and BB rates than I am worried about the K’s.
I said it before, the kid could be a lefthanded version of Chris Young. a GG caliber CFer with 20 HR pop, takes a walk, will hit for low ave.
That still makes him a very valuable commodity.
This isn’t 2001 and the days of the average up the middle player hitting .280 with 20 homers is over
Matt Kemp is on Line 2, ScottAZ
Should I give him your voicemail or let him know you’ll call him back after your meeting with Jacoby Ellsbury & Josh Hamilton this afternoon?
since when is Kemp the ave CFer?
If your basis for what constitutes as the ave MLB CFer starts with Matt Kemp’s .986 OPS and ends with Josh Hamilton then I don’t know what to tell you other than I hope you can deal with dissapointment
As for reality:
The ave CFer OPS in 2011 =.742
The ave Cfer OPS in 2001 =.789
Over 550 plate appearences a line of 60 BB, 20 HR, 25 2B, 10 3B along with 240 ave would have a slash line of something like 240/320/430 with his supposed elite defense and maybe the best OF arm in the minors and you have at least a +2 WAR player.
Clearly, he just needs to offer Jobu some rum.
by realitypolice on Dec 1, 2011 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
'Suzanne Dorn'?
Straight balls he hit very much.
Sad thing about the Jays
Is that the new CBA restrictions on the draft and International markets will force them to dramatically change their approach.
Its a shame too, because they have done a wonderful job rebuilding that franchise.
Selig is such a putz.
hopefully
the improved scouting system will still find “hidden” gems like mr. Syndergaard. Syndergaard actually got paid less than slot, as did Aaron Sanchez.
Musgrove
Also got way less than slot. Hutchison, of course, as a pick in the teens, got more than slot, but much less than his subsequent talent indicates that he should have.
by ofsticksandbats on Dec 1, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
yeah I was thinking of Musgrove as well
but he’s not proven himself to be a hidden gem just yet. I’m feeling pretty confident he will be, though.
The only reason Molina
may be put in the pen this year is because of his IP limits. He only threw 130 innings last year and the Blue Jays usually progress pitchers by 20-30 innings a year. So, if Molina makes the team out of Spring Training (which I think he will) he would only be able to throw ~ 150 innings.
I’m pretty sure the discussions going on in the Blue Jays office is whether they will start Molina directly out of Spring Training and shut him down when he is reaching his IP limit or if they want to have him close and do some spot starts to reach his innings limit with an eye to convert him to starter next season.
oh boy
I would be so excited if Molina made the team out of spring, so that I can finally see his stuff for myself..
But I suppose a lot depends on what they do with McGowan and if Drabek’s doing any better in spring training.
I don't see why it'd be the "only reason"
If they think he can help the team this year out of the pen, and in two years as a starter, they might pull the string under the “we’re putting our best team out there” philosophy.
If he gets a chance in spring training and looks awesome en route to a major league roster spot in April, I doubt it’d be the most shocking thing we’re going to see this year.
John
I’m loving the ranking of Molina as best pitching prospect. I wouldn’t believe the rumours about him switching to the bullpen, John Farrell said he might someday be a closer but I think he’ll be given every chance to prove himself as a starter. That is, I think, where those rumors are coming from.
Farrell was asked for a guy from the farm system who could become closer and then said Molina was one they’ve talked about. I think that’s totally different from Farrell bringing it up himself.
its insane how much the media and jays fans are obsessed with the whole closer thing. They just keep hounding Farrell, AA, Fasano about who that closer could be in the minors and it baffles me.
I’d think Farrell brought him up because Molina has been a reliever, done well and could move to that role if he doesn’t pan out as a starter or there isn’t enough room for him.
Is it actually any different?
Farrell could have taken the easy way out and referred to guys like Chad Beck or Joel Carreno as the internal options to close, but he chose to point out they’ve had internal discussions about Nestor Molina. I took him seriously.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Dec 1, 2011 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Molina, Syndergaard, Hutchison, Nicolini and the "other" pitching prospects...
Are actually hurting the Jay’s chances of getting more pitchers into the Top 100 lists. Everyone agrees most are blue chip prospects but there are legitimate discussions over which order they should be in.
By this time next year – these guys and: Norris, Comer, Gabryszwski, DeSclafani, Stilson, Osuna, Labourt, Cardona, Snachez, Musgrove not to mention Webb, Cole, Robson, Estrada, Jaye, Meyer, Taylor, Ybarra and the best name in ALL of professional Baseball: Ericdavis Marquez (who is a serious prospect to boot) are going to have had more time to jockey for position. Ironically, so much talent might just continue to muddy the waters as Jay’s pitching prospect after Jays pitching prospect simply overwhelms the evaluators.
What a juicy problem for the Jays to have, n’est pas?
In all honesty though I would much rather have all those players than silly top 100 rankings. Rankings don’t matter, solid players do.
Most of the jays prospects over the last decade that have amounted to much have not ranked highly
Romero/Marcum/Alvarez/Cecil/Thames all didn’t really crack the 100 until right before they were called up if at all. There’s not really that much harm in it, it’s what they do at the MLB level that truly counts.
by TtD on Dec 1, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
Just like Dwyer/Montgomery/Duffy/L:amb hurt the Royals?…It’s more about quality to me, not quantity. The fact that many of them are close and are also close to Top 100 (or wherever each person thinks) consideration is more of a consensus that they have a lot of prospects who are borderline (and still very good), it’s not like an MVP vote….
Well...
You might want to scroll through that list of prospects again. The majority of those top 25 were below AA last year. The quality you are looking for exists more in the lower rungs of the organization. And some of the prospects that did play in AA only did so for a month or so.
Ericdavis Marquez
Never mind professional baseball, that might be the best name on Earth.
Ericdavis Marquez
It is the best name in professional sports, but unfortunately, he is not a serious prospect. Nowhere near it. Wrote about him here: http://section203.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/down-on-the-farm-jays-milb-thoughts-august-16-2011/
He will turn 21 in February and has yet to pitch outside of the DR. Great numbers last year, but how many of the kids he was whiffing were three years younger than him?
by ofsticksandbats on Dec 2, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Lawrie a better prospect than Trout?
Or are you not counting Trout because he isn’t rookie-eligible due to a ridiculous technicality?
I almost think that Trout is a tad under-rated these days because of his mediocre showing in the big leagues last year. I mean, if he had just stayed in the minors and padded his AA numbers a bit he might be more highly rated, which is a tad strange, no?
I would take Lawrie
I admit I am a homer but I would take Lawrie’s power and overall game over Trout.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 1, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
i feel like
people are going nuts over Lawrie over a small sample size in the majors
Bill James is projecting a 360 wOBA out of him next year and i’m inclined to pick the under on that
by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
It wasn't just the sample size
He also destroyed the minors and he is a freakish athlete who is unbelievably strong. That strength should generate a lot of ball flying out of the Skydome.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Dec 1, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe that's true
But when we start saying freakish and unbelievably, that could be a touch of hyperbole, since he really doesn’t have freakish tools, but more of a sweet swing. He’s no BDNF, but looks like perhaps a decent prospect:)
correction
he didn’t destroy the minors. he destroyed the PCL. major difference. even given the ARL.
granted, his strikeout rate was actually pretty good in the PCL, which bodes confidence that it wasn’t all a PCL mirage.
still, like i said. i’d take the under on a .360 wOBA next year. the way people talk about him on this site, it sounds like people are expecting .400 wOBA’s from him next year.
I’d agree on taking the under on the .360 wOBA for next year, as incredible as was his debut. I think he certainly he’s capable of something like that, but it it’s far the median situation. As a Jays fan, I’d be happy with something like .330-.340 (assuming similar hitting environment to 2011), and even if he just put up a league average line it wouldn’t really be terribly disappointing.
My thing with Lawrie is bat speed.
His bat is lightning fast. His bat is Sheffield fast.
by Billy Ray Durham on Dec 2, 2011 2:36 AM EST up reply actions
Yea
This is what I see from his swing too. Short, compact, powerfull… very powerfull. I like that comparison in swing types.
by Jesse Taylor on Dec 2, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Me too, although in reverse
I’ve got Homerism with Trout so have no objectivity with him, although I do think that there has been this strange kind of moderation of expectations due to his underwhelming numbers in the majors last year. The number of 19-year olds that took the majors by storm is very close to zero.
But you really can’t go wrong with Lawrie, Trout, or Harper – these guys are going to be dominating the game in five years.
I guess I’m also suffering from AFTS…Angels Fan Trout Syndrome…“Why isn’t Trout being discussed? Don’t they know Trout is the Best Ever? WTF?”
It would've been outrageous
to expect Trout to rake in the majors this year. He’ll get there, I’m sure.
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Agree with the post below
My favorite team too but there’s next to nothing not to like about Brett Lawrie.
as an Angels fan I would take Lawrie over Trout
maybe its because I believe in Bourjos and realize the gaping hole in Angels stadium also known as 3B
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Dec 2, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'm a big Carlos Perez fan
So…..any idea what happened? Will he be OK?
by Billy Ray Durham on Dec 2, 2011 2:35 AM EST reply actions
First season of full-season ball
He struggled a lot with fatigue playing near everyday and his swing was falling apart the more tired he got. The Jays have some heavy conditioning planned for this offseason, will be a question of whether he’ll adapt to the workload or not.
I just don't see it. I see a potential shut down closer.
I’m not a fan of that type of delivery in general, so I might be biased in that regard. There are positives, I like how he jumps at the plate, particularly when he pitches out of the stretch. He ought to just abandon the long windup and pitch exclusively out of the stretch. If he does so the deception in his delivery will highlight the deception in his pitches. I can usually call a pitch a quarter to half way to the plate, even with really good pitchers. Not so with Molina. His fastball, split and change all looked identical to me until it got to the catchers mit. I think that’s whats making all the scouts drool over him. I think a move to the stretch will enhance his ability to pick off runners. The long windup is introducing too many moving parts, I don’t think it will be to long before they realize he’d be better served abandoning it and assuming he’ll be coming in with runners on base.
Quick delivery, ability to hold down the running game, deceptive delivery, deceptive pitches, all spell dominant reliever to me.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
I was under the impression that all were Grade C
For the lists published here that have gone beyond 20 players, I think all of them extended to cover all Grade C+ players. Somebody please correct me on that / link me to a list that didn’t do that if I’m wrong, please.
I don't know
I’d say there are 8 to 10 guys there that could be C+ grades easily.
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I don't disagree
But I know there’s been lists in the past that have gone longer than 25 with C+ players.
Definitely Chris Hawkins
Probably McDade, Comer, Stilson.
I'll take
Stilson, Cooper, Hawkins, Dickie Thon, Comer and Robson and maybe Lopes, Taylor, Nessy and McDade.
Curious if gabrielsyme got them all or not
as I could see Arce and Griffin Murphy as C+ grades too.
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molina's splitter
A lot of people are debating if Molina is a starter or a reliever but really I think that debate is overblown. When watching the video, the two splitters he throws the 3:35 and 4:15 are both filthy. That is a major league plus pitch, with great arm action. That pitch combined with his fastball command will make him effective in any role. If he can add a third average pitch to throw for strikes i think the bullpen concerns are completely put to rest and he has a Shaun Marcum like #2-3 starter profile
honest question
when a tool/pitch is plus does that include the pitcher’s ability to command and control the pitch. I’m still a learning prospector (talent evaluator? scout? what do you people call yourselves? lol).
go long with extenze...i do
i think so
for example lets take the slider. A major league average slider is called a slider. a plus slider would be a notch above the major league average and a plus plus slider would be about two notches above league average. Some things that contribute to making a pitch a plus pitch are command and control like you mentioned as well as velocity, movement, and maybe even deception. I am not an expert myself but I hope that helps….If anyone else has any insight I also wouldn’t mind hearing more about what makes a pitch “plus”
by James Westfall on Dec 2, 2011 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
I think it depends
Some people will rate the pitch without taking into account the command, while also possibly noting that the pitch plays up because of the pitcher’s ability to command it.
a ? for Jays fans
Why was Mike McDade moved from Ca to 1B? He is a westcoast kid I saw a little in the showcase circuit and he was decent enough behind the dish to get a look there. I see as a pro he hasn’t played anywhere other than 1B.
IMO, really hurts his chances. As a catcher the guy has big upside, but as a 1b he profiles nothing more on the MLB level as a bench bat
Is it me, or does Molina throw like C. Zambrano?
Sam Bradford
Hopefully
Molina doesn’t have the same attitude.
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