Community Pitching Prospect #2
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 7, 2011 11:35 AM EST
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PrintWith 91.0% of the vote, Matt Moore is elected Community Pitching Prospect #1. Normally we'll be eliminating some of the players with very few votes, but with one player garnering 91% of the vote, it is tough to make any eliminations. We'll make eliminations next time, so don't worry.
RESULTS:
Matt Moore: 91.0%
Shelby Miller: 3.8%
Julio Teheran 2.6%
Trevor Bauer: 2.6%
Tyler Skaggs: 0%
Jameson Taillon: 0%
Jacob Turner: 0%
Drew Pomeranz: 0%
Gerrit Cole: 0%
Dylan Bundy: 0%
CANDIDATES: Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Jameson Taillon, Jacob Turner, Drew Pomeranz, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy, Danny Hultzen
TESTERS: Martin Perez, Jarrod Parker, Taijuan Walker, Carlos Martinez, James Paxton, Matt Harvey
#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%
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+1
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 7, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Nov 7, 2011 2:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
+1
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 7, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
+1
pbfantasysports.com / pbfantasybaseball.proboards.com
+1
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Nov 7, 2011 2:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 7, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Request
If people can rec each of the player headings so it will stay clear, that will help. Thanks.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 7, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Good
idea
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 7, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Hey Auclairkeithbc
Let me know if you need any help running this. I obviously took this over last year too late, and wanted to start this up around this time, but came down with a nasty virus over the last 2 weeks, and just now getting my way back to 100%.
I will try to PM you now with my email.
Thanks.
Currently 20-9-4-2 for Teheran, Miller, Bauer, and Skaggs
In an attempt to get some actual conversation started, I’ll say that I think Teheran is the obvious choice here. He’s still younger than both Miller and Bauer (and less than 6 months older than Skaggs) and just finished off a full season at AAA where he was mostly dominant. The questions about his stuff appear to be completely overblown. The change is clearly at least a plus pitch, if not better, and he seemed to do a better job keeping his arm speed up in his second MLB stint. The questions about the curve also appear to have been overblown, as it looked quite good during his second big league stint and other than Law and Adam Foster, I’ve still yet to see people actually questioning how good it is and the progress Teheran has made in terms of improving it. The consistency could still be better, but it still clearly flashes plus.
'The questions about his stuff appear to be completely overblown'
I agree with you here. So, not really advancing the conversation per se but still..
This kid is the obvious choice for me at #2 also. I’m surprised he didn’t show better in the first poll actually (although Matt Moore was a deserving winner there).
Eh
I like Teheran an awful lot, but Matt Moore is just on another level.
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I hear you, man
You might be right & Moore passes the eyeball test in spades, but I really feel like Teheran is right there. He doesn’t have Moore’s raw stuff, sure, but he is almost two full years younger & had quite a AAA campaign for what that’s worth.
They’re both absolutely phenomenal frontline starter prospects to me.
It's the combination of stuff, complete lack of effort, and increasingly improving command
I was just blown away by him this year. It’s not a knock against Teheran or anything.
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Twitter Account: @Ioffridus
Understood & totally valid
More than valid actually. One has to really cobble a case together for anybody but Moore in a lot of ways. I did my best, but you are correct when implying that Moore is something of a force of nature (ALDS Game 1, ahem).
I’m not surprised that Moore won that poll going away, but I was surprised that Teheran garnered only three votes in the end.
I kind of fall in the middle on this one
I couldn’t actually bring myself to vote for Teheran over Moore because Moore just seems like a more sure thing at this point, but I also don’t think the difference is all that big.
i still can't get over
why, despite what scouts unquestionably say is very good stuff, he doesn’t get the strikeouts that the stuff suggests. i really wish i had data on overall swinging strike percentages, just to see if it’s a matter of pitch sequencing.
that’s enough of a question mark to me to say Bauer is better. i’d have Miller and Skaggs (in that order) ahead of Teheran as well.
I honestly don't get the questions about his K rate
He finished 10th in the IL in K/9 8th in K% and every guy who finished ahead of him is at least 3 years older. Despite the questionable K rate, he also still ranked second in the IL in FIP and tied for first in ERA. And this is after struggling a bit in his last few starts as well.
And I’m sorry, but I just simply can’t even begin to comprehend Bauer over Teheran. What is the reasoning there? Its not like Bauer has a big edge in stuff and he has the added red flag of command/control questions. Throw in the fact that Bauer has basically proven nothing professionally while Teheran has already managed to dominate in AAA and it makes even less sense.
by nixa37 on Nov 7, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
because i see Matt Moore dominate AAA
and i look back at Matt Moore’s AA numbers in the Southern League, and i notice that Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer (in a much much smaller sample size) have comparable numbers
i guess for me, Matt Moore seems to be better than Julio Teheran, and for many or most people, the difference is not insignificant. from their statistical profiles, guys like Bauer and Skaggs look a lot closer to Matt Moore than they look to Teheran.
this argument applies less for Bauer, because his sample size in AA was truly too small. however, i guess i’m just stuck on the fact that guys who strikeout hitters as prolifically as Bauer did during college historically have turned into great pitchers, so long as they don’t end up injured.
maybe you’re right, and it’s just a matter of Teheran being too young for the league. after all, he struck out a very high number of batters faced in A+. but ARL is generally considered to matter less for pitchers. and while 20% of BF in AAA isn’t bad, these concerns make me drop him lower. of course, as evidenced above, i’m sure plenty of ppl will disagree with me on this.
as a side note, it just seems like a lot of the arguments used to defend Teheran against the K rate argument, reflect similar arguments used to defend Lyles in the past. he was extremely young in a very advanced league. he had a lower FIP. while it’s obvious that scouts would say Teheran’s stuff is better than Lyles, i guess i could envision a similar situation where Teheran ends up going to the majors and underwhelms, and i think the probability of that happening is higher for Teheran than for guys like Bauer, Miller, and Skaggs.
by blue bulldog on Nov 7, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You acted like his K rate somehow doesn't support reports on his stuff
My point was that I see no reason to see that. He posted a very good (though not dominating) K rate while basically posting dominant numbers in every other category across the board. To me that doesn’t show a lack of stuff, as he still posted dominant numbers overall. What it shows IMO is a guy pitching to contact because he knows his opponents can’t handle his stuff. It is also likely in part due to the inconsistency of his breaking ball at this point which makes him less likely to risk throwing it when he doesn’t really need to (because of possible fears of hanging it).
I’m not sure I really see the Lyles Teheran similarities that you bring up. Lyles struck out ~1.3 fewer batters per 9 innings and posted an FIP almost 3/4 of a run worse while in AAA. In addition, he wasn’t able to dominate hitters who did manage to put it in play to near the same level that Teheran did, struggling with BABIP problems and a relatively high ERA. Those things all make sense once you look at scouting reports and realize that Teheran is supposed to have much better stuff than Lyles. If you are going to focus almost entirely on numbers as you say you do (and I have no problem with that just so we understand one another) you have to be careful that you don’t fall into exactly this sort of trap where superficially the numbers look somewhat similar, but once you dig deeper we see the exact things we would expect if we had looked at their scouting report.
i don't disagree straight up
let’s put it this way, even given my concerns about Julio Teheran’s K%, i’d still consider him to be a Top 10 prospect. on the other hand, last year, i would have had Jordan Lyles out of the Top 50. there is no doubt in my mind that Teheran is a better prospect than Lyles, and the 3% better K%, 0.75 better FIP, and better scouting reports reflect that.
what i’m trying to say though, is that scouts (at least the ones at BA) were projecting Lyles as a No. 3 Starter, and he has underwhelmed considerably. ERA and FIP were terrible. bad luck? partially, since his xFIP was at a not-so horrendous 4.13. but his inability to miss bats means that he’s one of those pitchers who is always going to have to be basically perfect with his command/control. anything off with command/control, and his ERA will balloon like it did this year.
now, depending on who you ask, Teheran is projected as a No. 1 or No. 2 Starter. i just think similarly though, because he doesn’t miss an elite number of bats, he may underwhelm when called up to the majors. so i guess, i see most likely outcomes in the low-4 ERA range. at least, to me, Teheran has a higher chance at underwhelming than guys like Moore, Bauer, Miller, and Skaggs.
by blue bulldog on Nov 7, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Am I the only on ethat likes Hultzen here?
At draft time, I wasn’t really that convinced. But the more I have seen/heard/thought about it, the more I like him.
I think Hultzen has as much upside and is just as safe as Teheran.
Hultzen is on my short list
He’s just behind a few guys that I just can’t put him ahead of (Teheran, Miller, Bundy, Skaggs, Turner).
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Maybe he has as much upside, but what makes him as safe?
Teheran has already dominated AAA while Hultzen hasn’t thrown a professional pitch outside the AFL.
Hultzen could start the year off in the majors, right?
We don’t have a track record that proves it, but I just don’t see a single weak spot in his abilities. As of now, I’m not totally convinced Teheran becomes that good. I see him as a 2/3 more than a #1.
I don't see a single weak spot in Teheran's abilities either
The difference is that we’ve had a chance to look for weak spots in Teheran’s games at the highest minor league levels, while with Hultzen we’ve only gotten to see him in college and the AFL. I just thinks its far more likely that some flaw has been missed with Hultzen than it has with Teheran.
Not sure why you bring up seeing Teheran more as a 2/3 than a #1. You said before that you thought they had similar upside, so I just left that aside as it has nothing to do with what I was just arguing, which was purely about how safe they are.
As much doesn't equal the same.
I like Hultzen more. Not by a lot, but by a decent amount. I like his stuff more and his command more (I can’t speak about their pitchability/poise).
I do see the K rate as a weak spot. I will have a fanpost on that in a bit.
You have said this twice now Nixa
. . . and, while there are perfectly valid reasons to like Teheran better then Hultzen or, Bauer,I don’t see the fact that neither Bauer or Hultzen have pitched much in pro ball yet as relevent.
1 Scouting-wise, many people here, including me, have actually seen Buaer and Hultzen pitch more than many of the prospects in the minor leagues.
2 Again, pitchers who dominate college baseabll have proven fairly reliablty that they can slide quickly into the big leagues.
3 It isn’t a merit badge system. As soon as I or, anybody else, looks at a college (or even a HS) pitcher and sees a good big league pitcher, we can project them. Under that rationale, Strasburg, Lincecum. Price, Jared Weaver all would have ranked lower at this time of year right?
I look at Bauer and, i see a guy who would have pitched well in AAA ball too. He might have gotten off to a slower start, with less pro experience than Teherean but, I think he would have been dominating at the end – I feel the same way about Hultzen, to a bit lesser extent maybe.
Also, Bauer may need some command refinement but, I’d harldy say 48 BB in 162.1 Innings this year indisctes any “control issues”. That wasn’t the pitcher I saw this year. He also fanned 246
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
I think it is very much relevant in a discussion about how safe a prospect is
1. That’s great that you may have gotten to see them more and you may feel more comfortable making predictions on them, but that doesn’t make them safer in my mind. Especially when you aren’t watching them against pro players throwing a pro baseball and they’re doing it on a weeks rest instead of 5 days.
2. And pitchers who dominate in AAA at age 20 haven’t proven fairly reliably that they can slide quickly into the big leagues?
3. Again, this comment wasn’t about projection, but about how safe the two prospects are. Strasburg shouldn’t be a part of this discussion because his ceiling was clearly so much higher than any of the others that are being discussed here that any risk questions aren’t big enough to make up the difference.
As for Bauer’s control, maybe we shouldn’t focus so much on the fact that overmatched amateur hitters were flailing at a lot of pitches he threw out of the zone? He walked over 4 per 9 once he started facing professional hitters, so I’d say its far from a sure thing that he isn’t going to have some trouble with walks at some point.
And maybe Bauer would have been just as impressive as Teheran in AAA if he had been there all year. Then again, I have little doubt that Teheran would have dominated college baseball if he was pitching at that level this year, so I don’t really see how that tells us all that much.
to comment 2
i know i mentioned this above, but the only pitcher i can think of in the last couple of years who went from AAA to the majors at age 20 was Jordan Lyles
do you know of others?
Not off the top of my head
There aren’t all that many guys who can dominate AAA at age 20 (and Lyles wasn’t one of them) like Teheran did just as there aren’t many pitchers who have dominated college baseball the way Trevor Bauer did.
true
but, as far as your point 2, I wasn’’t saying there were any doubts about Julio Teheran sliding into the big league. I don’t have manyYou were saying there were doubts about Trevor Bauer doing so. You expressed some, because of his lack of pro experience. I just have little doubts about him either.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Well, I guess just relative to Teheran
I suppose but, just didn’t see the relevance considering how many guys who have sominated similarily have done . . . and that bauer himself wasa dominating pro ball within minutes of being a college pitcher.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
How many guys who have dominated similarly have done?
Aren’t we basically talking about a sample size of ~5 guys in the past 10-15 years (Prior, Lincecum, Strasburg, somebody else I’m almost surely forgetting)? And I wouldn’t go as far as saying Bauer was dominating pro ball. His strikeout rate was obviously great, but everything else about his numbers points to possible issues (walks, HR, BABIP) and we still haven’t seen how he’s going to handle consistently working of 5 days rest. I just think he’s clearly a bigger risk at this point than is Teheran.
Fair enough
I don’t think either one of them are particularily risky myself. Teheran primarily because he quickly and efficiently workd through innings and, Bauer because he is a conditiouing freak.
There are only a few guys to compare bauer to because he was that good. Thus going back to the origibnal reason for liking him in the first place. Because he is very, very good.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
And you don't see the relevance?
How is it not relevant to question the relative safety of two prospects when deciding specifically where to rank those two in relation to one another?
It is relevant
. . to question thier relative safety. I just don’t think the issues you proposed about about Bauer, make him less safe.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Good point
‘There aren’t all that many guys who can dominate AAA at age 20 (and Lyles wasn’t one of them)’
Besides age, it’s tough to compare Jordan Lyles & Julio Teheran cleanly.
ARL for pitchers
ARL is a great thing to look at for hitters, because physically maturing has alot to do with how well you hit the ball
But ARL for pitchers is a completely different beast… one that i think can be used to expose a non-prospect succeeding at a low level, but shouldnt be used in the same sense to promote a young guy who is preforming at a higher level. the aging curve for pitchers is far from the simple peaks at 27, and i think that teheran is getting a bump because of it
I dont buy that the teheran is younger than miller therefore he is a better prospect rap… i think miller has a much higher ceiling, with about the same floor… I see teheran as a good but not great pitcher, i see miller as a potentially great pitcher or an inconsistently good one… its not perfect, but i see miller more like morrow, and teheran more like danks
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
Why do you think Miller has a much higher ceiling?
I think their ceilings are similar, and Teheran has performed very well at higher levels.
ARL for pitchers is a balancing act between physical maturity, command improving with experience, and the injury nexus. Given that all of these guys are still solidly within the injury nexus, I think the command projection is at least as big a factor as the injury nexus when you look at the rare case of a 20yro dominating AAA.
I'm closing this one
With 57.3% of the vote, Julio Teheran wins in pretty convincing fashion.
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