Looking back at the rookie class of 2010 and at the top of the ballot in 2011
by Dalman on Nov 6, 2011 12:39 AM EDT
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PrintHaving been until recently, more than a little distracted by the fortunes of the Rangers, I've recently caught up with my sleep enough to consider starting the annual "last year's rookies" rankings. As you probably recall, the project is to rank last year's rookies as if they were still prospects, based on their expected future performance.
Last year's list was definitely something of a mixed bag this season. As a reminder, here it is:
1. Jason Heyward, outfielder Atlanta Braves
2. Buster Posey, catcher San Francisco Giants
3. Stephen Strasburg, pitcher Washington Nationals
4. Carlos Santana, catcher Cleveland Indians
5. Michael Stanton, outfielder Florida Marlins
6. Madison Bumgarner, pitcher San Francisco Giants
7. Starlin Castro, shortstop Chicago Cubs
8. Brian Matusz, Pitcher Baltimore Orioles
9. Pedro Alvarez, third base, Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Neftali Feliz, pitcher, Texas Rangers
11. Logan Morrison, outfielder Florida Marlins
12. Jhoulys Chacin, pitcher Colorado Rockies
13. Daniel Hudson, pitcher Arizona Diamondbacks
14. Justin Smoak, first base, Seattle Mariners
15. Jaime Garcia, pitcher St Louis Cardinals
16t. Austin Jackson, outfielder Detroit Tigers
16t. Ryan Kalish, outfielder, Boston Red Sox
16t. Wade Davis, pitcher Tampa Bay Rays
19. Ike Davis, first base, New York Mets
20. Travis Wood, pitcher Cincinnati Reds
21. Neil Walker, second base Pittsburgh Pirates
22. Jenrry Mejia, pitcher New York Mets
23. Tyler Colvin, outfielder, Chicago Cubs
24, Reid Brignac, middle infielder Tampa Bay Rays
25. Jose Tabata, outfielder Pittsburgh Pirates
26. John Jaso, catcher Tampa Bay Rays
27. Michael Saunders, outfield Seattle Mariners
A number of players on the list had dissapointing years, starting with Jason Heyward, ending with Michael Saunders and including a number of players in between.. Might we find room for one or more of Peter Bourjos, Danny Valencia, Mitch Moreland, Brennan Boesch, Alexi Ogando, Alcides Escobar, Drew Storen or Sergio Santos if given a mulligan?
You can discuss last year's rankings below and also I'd appreciate input on the first ballot for this year. Looking back at players who were among the top ranked prospects last year and who performed well as rookies this year, I come up with Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie, Jason Kipnis, Dominic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, Chris Sale, and Aroldis Chapman. Anyone missing? Any consensus on a few players off this list who don't need to be on the first few ballots.
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Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos
Both posted +3 wins this year. Dunno if you’d consider them “top-ranked” prospects, though.
Also
I know the poster is looking for guys to exclude but, I think Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt, Jemile Weeks, and mark Trumbo deserve consideration as well.
It wasn’t a great year for pre-2011 prospect rankers. . . Eric Thames, Salvatore Perez, Henderson Alvarez, Aaron Crow, JD Martinez. There were plenty of high-ceiling prospects that were left off of almost everyone’s list
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Of those you mention
Jemile in particular really intrigues me. He wasn’t ranked on many top 100 lists (BP, Sickels, BA all left him off), and rightly so due to injury concerns. But having been healthy this past season, and putting into MLB games the tools the scouts saw in him when he was such a high draft choice, I’m not sure he shouldn’t be a top ten guy. Especially when I think it is likely his walk rate will rise closer to what he did in the minors over time….but can he stay healthy?
It will be interesting to see what the community thinks, looking forward to it.
Don't want to open up a can of worms
but, If a guy had minor injuries in the minor leagues then, turns out to be as good of a big league player as his skills/draft status showed, that would make his ommision from top 100 lists – wrongly so, not rightfully so. That is my contention, at least.
Also, I’m in the minority on this I suppose but, I think Jose Altuve is as good of a prospect as Jemile Weeks is, at least as good
I agree that it’ll be intyeresting to sorrt it all out though :)
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Well
As John has said when talking about his 7 skills—Health is a skill.
For example: Nick Johnson was very highly ranked coming through the minors, but was always missing time due to injury. He got to the Bigs, and played great….when he played. But his inability to stay healthy really hampered him, and without doing any research :), I’m sure his career WAR didn’t end up too impressive, simply because he couldn’t stay on the field. So IMO, he was wrongly rated highly, because he had not shown an ability to stay healthy.
Doesn’t mean i am right, or you are wrong though. Just our opinions!
I’ll be really interested to see where Altuve comes out, too. Not sure i like him as much as Weeks…but he doesn’t have the health concerns (hell, it may run in his family, Rickie is always hurt too) and is a solid prospect himself.
Agree with all 4 of these
’Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt, Jemile Weeks, and (M)ark Trumbo ’
Does anybody doubt Paul Goldschmidt at this point? I know he narrowly exhausted his rookie eligibility & has only a couple months in the majors, but there is next to nothing I don’t like about this kid after viewing him repeatedly (he is the somewhat rare case, to me, of a prospect that I ‘loved’ who I actually liked more after watching him transition to MLB).
Domonic Brown
would be hard to include on a list of highly touted prospects who well in 2011.
I'm cutting Brown a bit of slack
because he was so highly ranked going into this year (#2 by Sickels, with numbers 1, 3 and 4 retaining their rookie status). There is no doubt that the players casejud lists are worthy of consideration and most if not all will eventually find their way onto a top 25 list. But Trumbo and Weeks as serious threats to guys like Lawrie and Pineda in the first couple of rounds? I’m skeptical.
I agree
I hadn’t had my coffee yet. I don’t really think they are serious threats for the very top rookies for 2011, just wanted to tos sthier names in there D.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
The list looks good
Last year’s list looks pretty good. I’d say the only thing that looks really out of place is Ryan Kalish eh? Or are people still that high on his upside? He had a rough year.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
He had a rough year.
“If a guy had minor injuries in the minor leagues then, turns out to be as good of a big league player as his skills/draft status showed, that would make his ommision from top 100 lists – wrongly so, not rightfully so.”
by blackoutyears on Nov 6, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Good quote
I guess 16th isn’t that high anyways. I guess maybe I wasn’t that thrilled with his talents as some were, to begin with. That principle kinda goes out the window when injuries are serious too. Anybody know how serious Kalish’s injuries are?
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Nov 6, 2011 2:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
oh Reid how I hope you learn how to at least hit say .230
great great fielder but has the worst swing in the majors.
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