Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2012
by John Sickels on Jan 20, 2012 12:13 PM EST
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Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2012
THIS WAS UPDATED JANUARY 19, 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade B+: Borderline A-: He would be an A- or maybe even an A if he was more effective at throwing out runners and struck out less often, but he can really hit and is still a superior prospect even with those weaknesses.
2) Jake Marisnick, OF, Grade B+: Speed, defense, and a greatly improved bat. More power development would get him into the A-range.
3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade B+: I'm a believer in his stats, his size, his command, and his fastball, and I think the secondary stuff will come around. Can easily be in the A-range next year.
4) Justin Nicolino, LHP, Grade B+: I think Syndergaard's ultimate ceiling is a bit higher, but Nicolino isn't far behind, and is more polished with his secondary pitches. Could also be in the A-range next year.
5) Daniel Norris, LHP, Grade B+: Higher physical ceiling than Nicolino, but I want to see him in pro ball before ranking him ahead.
6) Deck McGuire, RHP, Grade B+ Doesn't have the ceiling of the younger guys, but should be a solid inning-eater at worst and won't need much longer in the minors.
7) Drew Hutchison, RHP, Grade B+. You can't argue with his results even if he doesn't have as much physical upside as the guys ahead. Like McGuire, an efficiency expert who should chew through innings.
8) Anthony Gose, OF, Grade B+: Other people will probably rank him higher due to his tools. He's made a lot of progress, but his hitting approach remains quite raw and the strikeout rate still bothers me. Made big strides refining his defense and baserunning. Grade A tools, Grade C+ skills.
9) A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade B-: Superior defensive skills and hits for average, even steals a few bases. How much power will he develop?
10) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade B-: Very high upside arm, didn't blossom as some of the other guys did, but that could come in 2012 with some command refinements.
11) Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, Grade B-: His season was not as bad as you think and he was hot towards the end. Breakout candidate for 2012.
12) Adonys Cardona, RHP, Grade B-: High-upside projectable big-bonus arm from Venezuela, rookie ball performance was spotty but he is very young. Potential for a much higher grade next year.
13) Jacob Anderson, OF, Grade B-: Power bat from California high school ranks, looked strong in very brief rookie ball debut, high power ceiling.
14) Dwight Smith, Jr, OF, Grade B-: Pure hitter from Georgia high school ranks, and I think his tools may be underrated. Need some professional data before ranking higher.
15) Joe Musgrove, RHP, Grade B-: High school arm from 2011 draft looking to repeat what Nicolino and Syndergaard did this year. Big body, good stuff, showed good control in rookie ball debut.
16) Matt Dean, 3B, Grade B-: Another upside guy from 2011 draft that we need to see in pro ball. Potential to hit for power, hit for average, and provide solid defense at third.
17) Adeiny Hechavarria, SS, Grade C+: Borderline B-. I like the glove, but I think the Vegas numbers were a fluke. Could turn out similar to the Alex Gonzalezi. I might be underrating him a bit but he's never looked good with the bat when I've seen him.
18) Joel Carreno, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Ready for the majors. Should provide strong middle relief innings and could be a closer eventually.
19) Chad Jenkins, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. In many systems he would be a top ten prospect as an inning-eating number four starter. Here he may end up as trade bait.
20) Carlos Perez, C, Grade C+: Borderline B-: Not a great season in the Midwest League, but I still think he has the potential to develop into a regular major league catcher. I had him at 18 originally but I think that was too high and am moving him down a few notches.
21) Marcus Knecht, OF, Grade C+: Prototype right field tools, good power, will have to see about his batting average. You can make a B- case.
22) Moises Sierra, OF, Grade C+: Tools outfielder with power/speed package made progress in Double-A.
23) Michael Crouse, OF, Grade C+: Another power/speed outfielder with a high ceiling but needing work with his approach.
24) Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade C+: Pitched in the Mexican League at age 16. Tremendous ceiling, but could develop in any number of ways, talent to be in the top ten or higher in coming years if he develops properly.
OTHERS OF NOTE: Eric Arce, OF; Danny Barnes, RHP; Mark Biggs, RHP; Kevin Comer, RHP; David Cooper, 1B; Evan Crawford, LHP (should be a great LOOGY), Anthony DeSclafini, RHP; Jeremy Gabryszwski, RHP; Chris Hawkins, OF; Christian Lopes, INF; Michael McDade, 1B; Griffin Murphy, LHP; Santiago Nessy, C; Sean Nolin, LHP; Tom Robson, RHP; John Stilson, RHP; Mitchell Taylor, LHP, Dickie Thon, SS; Chino Vega, SS.
What can you say? This system has incredible depth, and a year from now it could look even better, depending on how Nicolino, Norris, and Syndergaard perform in full-season ball, not to mention hitters like Smith and Dean who are just getting started. Sanchez and Woj have the natural ability to zoom up the list as well.
Many of the C+ guys (and even some of the Cs) have B or even A-level physical ceilings but need to play and get some experience in, particularly pitchers like Carmona and Osuna.
Overall, I think this list speaks for itself. There is upside with guys who could be stars, there are solid future role players, there are arms, there are bats, there is power, there is speed, there is defense. It will be interesting to see if the Blue Jays are able to keep the talent spigot on full blast under the new CBA.
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GOOD. GOD.
System is STACKED.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
Woah
Didn’t expect to see Molina that high.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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im really confused
by this ranking. i’d like to know what makes molina the best pitching prospect in the system.
by another know it all on Nov 30, 2011 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
good stuff despite average velocity, great command, closer to major league ready and it was his 1st year as a starter.
I honestly thought Hutchison would be our top pitching prospect though
Can only comment on the few scouting reports i've seen
But supposedly no-one’s been as dominant in a AA spell since Verlander passed through years ago. It’s the wipeout splitter and pinpoint control that makes him such a tasty prospect, he was manhandling AA hitters.
but that's a pretty small sample
his A+ numbers weren’t as impressive (though they were still great)
Derp
A+ scouting reports were almost non-existant though
He pitched well, suffered a little from a lesser defense and still manhandled the level. It makes a difference having Hech/Gose and McDade behind you and D’Arnaud calling the game.
FSL scouting report
6-1 180 RHP
91-93 fastball with sink, tops out at 94
misses bats with splitter
tinkering with grip on breaking pitch
average changeup
easy delivery
that sounds more like a MOR guy. if he can figure out the grip on a slider/curveball enough to make it an average pitch, he looks even better
by another know it all on Nov 30, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
He's still refining everything atm
He’s been pitching such a short time, his changeup has been coming on leaps and bounds every few months for instance.
John Farrell said on the radio that he’s a potential candidate to close in the majors. One assumes that has more to do with the Jays’ depth of options than with any lack of confidence in him as a starter/.
My prediction is that unless they are decimated by injuries, Molina will be their closer beginning in 2013 and one of the best in the league
I agree with this ranking.
Personally I think no bad player can put together the stretch he went through in AA. 33:2 is no fluke, I think he will continue to fan hitters at the next level.
Closer?
Both John Farrell and Sal Fasano have been on Toronto radio the last few days discussing Nestor Molina as a potential closer/reliever for the team. Supposedly he has the kind of delivery that would be more suitable to the bullpen. Unless they sign some relievers I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the team out of spring training after a strong showing.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Nov 30, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'm open to the idea
But I think he has every right to try it first as a starter. No player that puts up numbers like that should be sent directly to the pen.
I agree though that we have many internal options to close.
it’s a good point, but it’s as much a depth thing as anything else.
the Jays have, in some order-
Romero
McGowan
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
Drabek
ahead of him and McGuire and Hutch right there next to him and guys like Litsch Villianueva, Carreno and Jenkins as fallback option.
(I think Cecil ends up in the pen eventually too)
With almost a dozen other options at his level (development wise) or higher, the Jays can afford to say “which of these guys would be a lights out closer?”
Vectors
Hi TamRa: It does sound as though Molina could be headed for the ‘pen, although I imagine the Jays will want to reassess the situation in the spring before making any major decisions. But I’m not sure McGowan, Cecil and Drabek will be ahead of the other top SP prospects for long, as none of them has really entrenched himself in the rotation yet. You can dream on each of them (McGowan and Drabek especially, because of their big arms), but at some point performance counts. And some of the Jays’ up-and-coming pitching prospects are excelling in the performance category.
What station was it on?
I listen to the Fan all the time and didn’t hear anything about it. Interesting possibility.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Nov 30, 2011 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
A few quibbles
I won’t argue about Molina but Hutchison should at least be ranked higher than Deck McGuire. He posted better numbers (albeit in a small sample size) at 20-years-old, and he still has physical projection remaining given age and current weight/build. Remember when Henderson Alvarez was throwing 92-94 last year, as a 20-year-old who had supposedly no more physical projection. This year he was throwing 96-98. You can envision Hutchison with similar strength gains sitting 94-95 next year instead of 91-92.
Also Joe Musgrove and Wojo in the top 20 and no Chris Hawkins?
by JaysFanToronto on Dec 1, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
been banging his drum throughout the voting process
people are completely missing the boat on molina, he’s still learning how to pitch and will only get better as he matures
good to see someone else feels strongly about him
just a small correction
It’s Jake Marisnick, not Marisnek.
There will be A's next year
It’s crazy to see how many B range guys there are right now but I think we will for sure see at least 4 or 5 A- or A guys next year as guys progress
I’m calling Norris as an A (pretty common prediction) but my slightly under the radar prediction is Matt Dean to be an A- with a nice showing
"Hello. My name is Matthew Berry. I am on a Fantasy Jihad. Prepare to die!"
The system
will certainly improve with so many young guys. It’s must be exciting to be a Blue Jays fan. Undoubtedly so.
I question the idea as Norris as a straight A grade next year being a pretty common prediction. He’s gonna have to come out and pitch very well to become a top 10 pitcher (about what it takes to get an A from John correct?). He certainly has the talent, but just judging from past prep pitchers, he’s going to have to excel.
Any word on Norris’s chances to start in SS ball versus Low A ball? The Jays are pretty aggressive correct? I’d think he will need to be in Low A ball to even have a chance.
For the record, he’s a personal fan of mine so I will be rooting for him.
If I had to pick a guy to make the jump to the A range (A or A-) it’d be Snydergaard. D’Arnaud will obviously also have a tremendous chance if he doesn’t graduate.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 30, 2011 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
SS I think
He may spend half a year in Lansing, but based on recent experience, he will start in rookie ball or SS.
Norris
He grew up 2 hours from Bluefield, right near the Kentucky/Virginia border so I’m guessing he’ll start in the Appalachian league.
by The Duke of Hurl on Nov 30, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
last couple of years, the college guys start at Lansing (or even Dunedin as McGuire did) and the HS guys start in SS (more to give them a lot of XST work than anything else). Vancouver would be an aggressive placement for Norris for them. Stilson, if healthy, might show up in Lansing with a good spring.
Right
that makes sense and is the smart thing to do. I just see it as being nearly impossible then for Snydergaard to then earn a straight A going into next year.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know about undoubtedly improving a year from know
there will be some graduates, Hech, D ’ Arnaud, and a pitcher or two…
Plus while they’ll likely have an A or two, at least one of Synegaard, Nicolino, Molina, Carreno, Cardona, Hutch, Norris, Wojo, Jenkins and even McGuire could likely really fall off and be a C+ or worse.
I dunno they’ll have more top heavy guy next year A- B+ but less B+, B , B- for me.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 1, 2011 5:06 AM EST up reply actions
I was
under the impression D’Arnaud will likely spend the entire season in AAA. If that so, and he remains in the farm, and you combined that with the ridiculous upside of the entire system, plus another draft with 2 1st round picks (even with the new caps) and barring a trade, I can only see this system improving.
I mean, for comparison, Osuna was considered one of the best, if not the best 16 year-old pitcher last year (Victor Sanchez is the other if I am not mistaken?) and the Jays got him. Two years ago the guys were Heredia (who was immediately listed as a B- and was FIFTH in a middle of the pack (at the time) Pirates system) and Cardona (made OTHERS in the Blue Jays list and was probably a C+) were his comparable. From a bit of research, it seems coming out of Latin America, Osuna would slot behind Heredia and ahead of Cardona.
Heredia will probably get a B, and maybe a B+ grade if John is feeling generous. Cardona got a B- grade this year. It’s certainly a strong possibility that the list next year will have him as a B- or B, and that’s one example. Matt Dean (who I still can’t believe the Jays got for 6 figures) has tremendous upside. He could be a B+ a year from now.
Kevin Comer, John Stilson, and Christian Lopes all made the OTHERS list and have the upside to be B- or even B players next year.
That is all combined with the system having 8 B+’s (if you count Hutchinson, which is looks like there is a solid possibility John will move him a notch up and give him a B+) and 75% of those guys will be back next year, and Anthony Gose is a freakin B (crazy, crazy upside) and.. well damn.
I think this system will look better next year, somehow. (Don’t forget those two 1st round draft picks).
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 8:16 AM EST up reply actions
(Don’t forget those two 1st round draft picks).
Maybe three depending on who signs Kelly johnson (not to mention up to 4 supps).
Even
better! Ya. The Jays system will be pretty stacked for a while. The only real question is if it can produce enough talent to compete with the rest of the AL East. Man is that division brutal.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, They’ll be stacked for a good long while. of the 25 John wrote about 14 of them are at low A-ball or SS and given the number of high picks they’ll have + the extension of pick protection an additional year I think the jays will be in a better position then most to go after prep talent. Hell if some of the less fortunate teams are scared off by the new CBA it might even be premium prep talent (ala Norris).
As far as competing in the AL Beast goes… well they really need to start drawing in more revenue. I don’t think Rogers will be happy to spend highly
until the Skydome is fuller and I think the team needs to be a legit playoff contender before the fans will start filling the dome again.
2 Wild Cards...
They can compete. I’m not going to say they’ll make the playoffs all the time but they look like they’ll be in the hunt every year at least. For awhile.
Very
good point. My point was more cynical. Were the Blue Jays in any other division, they would probably be a division favorite on paper in the preseason for a span of several years. Maybe not starting next year, but awfully soon.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
good job John
great time to be a Jays fan.
Hechavarria
I get that he hasn’t shown anything offensively yet, but I think that’s a pretty low ranking for a guy we’ve been told has an elite SS glove. Players like Alcides Escobar (and to a lesser extent Elvis Andrus) aren’t good hitters but they provide tremendous defensive value to their clubs. If Hechavarria’s floor is John McDonald with the potential for more power/speed I really think he needs to be higher on this list. Players like that have quite a bit of value to a team, and I would love to see the Jays work in Adeiny in a utility role to get him comfortable in the big league environment.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
If his upside is John McDonald then the ranking is more than fair. He’s shown absolutely no ability to hit. Andrus is exponentially better with the bat. He had a 700 OPS in the minors compared to Hech’s 653. And keep in mind Hech has a 291 OBP, which isn’t even 40 points higher than his BA.
Sorry champ but Hech has absolutely no value as a defensive replacement from a prospect standpoint.
Floor
His floor is JMac, not his upside.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Nov 30, 2011 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Nov 30, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
JMac+
Hech has more power and speed than a JMac type too.
Does Adeiny have a 4th option year?
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Nov 30, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t be so sure. Hech’s OBP Differential (OBP-BA) is lower than J-Mac, meaning he walks less. The career ISO is 107, which is slightly higher than J-Mac’s 88.
Unless you buy into the AAA stats, in the PCL league, which is the only time Hech has ever hit, it’s more likely McDonald is the comparison, not the floor.
Is there really, any proof that Hech will be a better hitter? It’s not like he’s that young either. He’s gonna be 23. How much more do you expect him to hit in the majors compared to his 650 OPS in the minors?
Ridiculous
Hech’s BB% and ISO have improved at every level (including the AFL). His bat is a question mark, but there’s no way he doesn’t hit better than JMac. The only stop that Hech has had a lower BB% than JMac’s career rate was at Dunedin last year.
not sure where you are going with this...
but it seems like the whole point of prospect discussion is to see who is or will be better than whichever current MLB players are out there…
by James Westfall on Dec 1, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
because
“there’s no way” implies you would give infinite odds that one minor leaguer ends up better than the other minor leaguer
and obviously nobody on this site would do that
people are just prone to extreme exaggeration when they start talking about prospects
Have you ever heard of rhetoric? In our use of the English language “there’s no way” means something substantially different than “there is precisely a 0.0% chance”.
it's just about accountability
people use these phrases all the time, so then nobody ends up really understanding what they mean
what is “there’s no way” then? 10% chance Hech hits better than JMac? 20% chance? 30%? 40%?
if people are prone to exaggeration of how confident they are of some outcome, then how can i tell the difference between your 90% confidence level and 60% confidence level? shouldn’t that matter if i’m trying to use your information to adjust my own evaluation of a prospect?
Not every phrase has a precise meaning, and I feel no need to restrict myself to those that do. See the sorites paradox. It’s not accountability, it’s just odd to read a rhetorical flourish in the most literal manner possible.
by gabrielsyme on Dec 2, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hech’s bat is more raw than empty though. i’t not difficult to project him into the rank of a guy like Alcies Escobar if he’s developed properly. Even John says “the Vegas thing was a mirage” but Hech started hitting well 2-3 weeks BEFORE the promotion. He may well have made an adjustment that not every scout has had a chance to see in action. he also hit well in the AFL (yes, PCL type hitters league) after a very slow start over the first 4-5 games.
I’d love for him to hit like Tony Fernandez, and i figure he probably won’t. but he’s almost certainly going to outhit McDonald by a solid margin. the McDonald comp is “what happens if he fails?” not “the best we can hope for”
The thing is that defensive is not worth as much as you'd think
Elvis Andrus actually added more wins with his bat than with his glove. He posted a DWAR of 0.9 which is great defensively. The only thing is a hitting shortstop like Yunel Escobar puts up 3.5 OWAR with his offense alone (Even though his defense is the same as Andrus)
The fact is that defense is underrated for a good reason, because it’s a lot harder to save your team runs than to go out and get them yourself.
I think Hech needs more seasoning in AAA personally but I guess only time will tell. He still has a ceiling.
Well one season of defensive WAR can be volatile
And the positional adjustment in WAR also has to go towards valuing defense, since defensive ability limits a player’s position (aka no Carlos Lee at SS).
by cookiedabookie on Nov 30, 2011 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
oWAR includes replacement runs
which you can gain just by having PAs. Escobar only had 13.5 batting runs.
Derp
You can't compare oWAR with dWAR like that
because oWAR includes replacement runs. An average defender has 0 dWAR (I believe), while an average hitter can still acquire oWAR by getting plate appearances. Not certain this is true, but that’s always how I understood it.
Derp
yes this is correct
WAR in general has four components. Hitting. Defense. Replacement. Positional.
splitting it up into only dWAR and oWAR conflates oWAR because you are giving oWAR extra credit for Replacement and Positional adjustments when those don’t reflect the player’s hitting ability
Farm system rankings
A- or higher
Diamondbacks 4
Royals 2
Orioles 2
Rays 1
Cardinals 1
Rangers 1
Tigers 1
B+ or higher
Blue Jays 7
Cardinals 5
Diamondbacks 4
Braves 4
Royals 4
Orioles 2
Rays 2
Phillies 2
Tigers 2
Astros 2
Rangers 2
Twins 1
B or higher
Cardinals 11
Blue Jays 9
Rangers 9
Royals 7
Rays 6
Braves 6
Diamondbacks 5
Tigers 5
Twins 4
Brewers 4
Orioles 3
Phillies 2
Astros 2
B- or higher
Blue Jays 17
Rangers 16
Braves 16
Rays 14
Cardinals 13
Royals 13
Twins 13
Diamondbacks 12
Brewers 9
Phillies 8
Orioles 7
Tigers 6
Astros 5
Farm system rankings (Made easier to read)
A- or higher
Diamondbacks 4
Royals 2
Orioles 2
Rays 1
Cardinals 1
Rangers 1
Tigers 1
B+ or higher
Blue Jays 7
Cardinals 5
Diamondbacks 4
Braves 4
Royals 4
Orioles 2
Rays 2
Phillies 2
Tigers 2
Astros 2
Rangers 2
Twins 1
B or higher
Cardinals 11
Blue Jays 9
Rangers 9
Royals 7
Rays 6
Braves 6
Diamondbacks 5
Tigers 5
Twins 4
Brewers 4
Orioles 3
Phillies 2
Astros 2
B- or higher
Blue Jays 17
Rangers 16
Braves 16
Rays 14
Cardinals 13
Royals 13
Twins 13
Diamondbacks 12
Brewers 9
Phillies 8
Orioles 7
Tigers 6
Astros 5
The 4 that stand out
DBacks, Cardinals, Royals, Blue Jays. Rays, Rangers, Braves not too far behind.
Derp
Also the Astros stand out
Being last in each category
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 1, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
haha
This comment totally makes me think OremLK is crushing a bottle of Dublin Dr. Pepper in his bare hand and saying “It’s not THAT bad a system!!!”
Well
it really isn’t that bad of a system. I will admit, I am very bullish on the Astros system. I really like Springer, and I like the upside sprinkled throughout the system in guys such as Santana, DeShields, Houser, Mier, Wates, Nash, and Ovando.
Either way, John hasn’t yet got to the systems that just scream barren. Orgs. like the White Sox and Brewers. Plus, the Dodgers, Marlins, A’s, and Giants don’t look too hot.
Of the teams already out by John, I definitely like the Astros better than the Twins. I also like them more than the Phillies, despite John giving better grades throughout to the Phillies. I’d even consider putting them on the same level or ahead of the O’s. Ya the O’s have that terrific one-two punch, but other than that it’s pretty darn depressing. Just a shocking lack of upside deeper into the system that isn’t true in the Houston system.
Plus, 5 of the teams John have already done are definite top 10 systems, if not better than that. Maybe 6 if you add the Royals to the Rangers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Jays, and Rays. Possibly 7 if you are bullish enough on the Cardinals. In fact, the only really good system I can think of that John hasn’t graded yet is the Mariners (caveat: off the top of my head).
Guess my overall point is, the Astros system isn’t as bad as it looks when simply comparing using the list posted above. For me, just ballparking, it’s probably in the 18-22 range, which considering how barren it was a few years ago, isn’t too bad. Plus that #1 overall pick coming up next June.
For the record, this was me just rambling in general to talk about baseball, which I love doing, not trying to prove anyone wrong or anything.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
They’re not flying up my org rankings or anything (yet), but I don’t know if its an exaggeration to say I like this system twice as much as a year ago. Which is crazy.
well
1. They’ve been terrible.
2. They were especially terrible this year.
3. They’ve traded or otherwise gotten rid of just about every veteran of value from the team over the last couple of years.
So yeah, I’d hope that the system was getting better to some degree.
You'd
hope, then you’d remember Ed Wade was running the show during the time period you mentioned.
Others may call it a minor miracle.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
More B+s than I figured
Mildly surprised d’Arnaud didn’t end up at an A-, but I only figured on a couple of the pitchers ending up at B+. Everything else semms about what I expected, though I was surprised by the number of B- from the 2011 draft (figured on more C+, but it’s a fine line). Thanks, John.
As a Jays fan, the future looks pretty good.
Arencibia?
D’Arnaud was good last year, but I think the BA was a bit of a fluke.
Yes he was young, and yes he posted nice numbers in a pitchers park (in a pitchers league).
However, his BABIP was around .365. Drop that down to .300, and he loses 50 points of batting average.
If he doesn’t up the contact rate, he’s going to experience the same kind of problems that JPA had in 2011.
Speaking of JPA, he suffered from a BABIP of .255 last year, and played through a variety of injuries. Give him better luck and better health, and he could post a decent 250/300/500 line in 2012.
good prospects can sustain high BABIPs
since they’re presumably hitting a ton of line drives. d’Arnaud’s 33 doubles would likely speak to that
Hitter BABIP =/= pitcher BABIP
You have to look at a lot of factors for hitters…LD%, speed to beat out GBs. Arencibia’s .255 BABIP was about right sondier he has a below average LD% and he’s pretty slow.
Going forward I think D'Arnaud is a clearly superior option than Arencibia.
In fact, in 2011 – if they had both had gotten an equal amount of playing time – it is my opinion D’Arnaud would have outperformed Arencibia. In the majors. He’s a far, far better defender to start. I don’t think D’Arnaud would have put up much of an offensive line in 2011, but do I think he could have been close enough to Arencibia’s .309 wOBA that his defense would have made him more valuable? I absolutely do.
by alskor on Nov 30, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
but that doesn't mean it's the best idea for the Jays
because it means you’re probably not selling high on Arencibia. if Arencibia has, say, a MLB average season in 2012 (average MLB offense, below average C defense) he’ll be worth quite a bit in trade, and d’Arnaud could stand to have another season in the Minors.
I would start D'Arnaud at AAA certainly.
I kind of expect him to be the starter by June/July though.
With this team in the age of two wild cards I wouldn’t play an inferior player in hopes his trade value rebounds over a guy who can help me.
Although in a complete aside
I was stunned that Topps named Arencibia the catcher on their rookie all-star team. Wilson Ramos was better than Arencibia in every aspect of the game other than home runs. Really – OPS, OPS+, CS%, fielding%, bWAR, fWAR, defensive ratings, Ramos runs the table on him. I can’t figure out what the Topps people were smoking.
"...better than Arencibia in every aspect of the game other than home runs. "
I think you answered your own question…
But my point is, that's just stupid
IMHO, of course. By that logic Topps would say that Dave Kingman was a better player than Andre Dawson because Kingman hit more home runs. Who would you rather have on your team? And even there the difference between Arencibia and Ramos isn’t as dramatic when you take into account games played and park factors. Arencibia hit 23 home runs playing 129 games with a very hitter-friendly home park (Park factor 104), while Ramos hit 15 in 113 games in a park that plays neutral overall (park factor 100) while favoring LH hitters more than RH hitters.
And the other differences were pretty stark. Ramos had a higher OPS (.779 to .720), OPS+ (113 to 90), CS% (32% to 24%), bWAR (2.5 to 0.9; and fWAR (3.1 to 1.5). While defense is tough to pin down for a catcher beyond CS%, I do note that Arencibia actually had a negative defensive WAR on both B-R and Fangraphs whle Ramos was positive on both metrics.
Add it up and Ramos has a better bat, glove and arm than Arencibia. Other than that, Arencibia is comparable. Look, there’s a reason that Ramos finished 4th for the NL RoY award (in a very tough field) while Arencibia didn’t get any votes at all for the AL RoY award.
Sorry for the overkill; you probably know all this too and were just making fun of the Topps people.
Stunned?
By Topps’ announcement of their all-rookie team? Seriously? Who the heck cares? This matters even less than the writers ignoring Brett Lawrie for Rookie of the Year despite him being clearly the most valuable (and best) rookie in the AL.
Twitterin @NorthYorkJays
by NorthYorkJays on Dec 1, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
OK, OK then ... would you accept "surprised?"
It’s the internet. I used hyperbole. Sue me :-)
Well, of course Kingman was better than Dawson...lol (and actually I am a Kong fan)
Topps doesn’t seem to have come out of the dark ages of the 1980’s where HR-RBI-BA ruled the roost. That’s all I was saying above.
Neil
Walker was a Topps rookie of the year or something. Kevin Correia was an all-star (While McCutchen almost got snubbed). That type of stuff is pretty much useless and only aggravating at this point.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
+1 on d'Arnaud
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Nov 30, 2011 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
sweet baby jesus
this is an exciting system… I think Sanchez is too low, personally , but this list is probably very difficult to do… how do you fit so much upside into 20 spots.
I think Syndergaard and D’Arnaud are two of my favorite spects in the last year
Top 30
Looks like number 30 could be top 10 in many orgs. when you see Comer, Biggs, Hawkins, Lopes, Gabryszwski, Stilson, and Cooper not even in the top 25.
by luckiswithme on Nov 30, 2011 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
This omission interested me
What are your thoughts on Chris Hawkins?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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Drew Vettleson was a B-
Compare Hawkins age, level, and stats, the 2 are almost equal. So I’m a bit puzzled as well.
love the arms, question the bats
Scores and scores of B ish arms, many with the potential to rise still higher. What I don’t foresee much of in this system are impact MLB bats. Of course, with all that starting pitching depth, they have a potential surplus of the one commodity that trumps all others when it comes to making deals to fill organizational deficits.
Not
trying to pick on you Reillocity, but it’s funny. It’s literally impossible to have a system without somewhat of a flaw. Last year the Royals had stud bats, but the pitching was all about depth instead of impact, etc. This year, its the inverse for the Toronto system.
Your point is a good one. The Jays should have plenty of talent to fill out most of a team, then have enough interesting prospects left over to trade for the appropriate pieces.
I mean, just gotta remember the major league team has, among others, Lawrie, Rasmus, and Alvarez for great, young talent. Oh, and Bautista signed to that great contract, and a pretty damn good starting pitcher in Ricky Romero.
Looking up for the Jays. Now, if only they weren’t having to compete in the AL East.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 30, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
5 b+ arms for kc last year...
including lamb and monty who were thought by everyone to be impact guys
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 30, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
3 of johns top 19 pitching prospects
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 30, 2011 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
but I don’t remember the Royals prospects really having the upside the group of Blue Jays guys.
I dunno. It’s just that the Jays system is arm heavy and bat “thin” while the Royals were the opposite. All I was really trying to get at I guess. It’s just ridiculous, cause neither are/were really “thin.”
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 30, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
I did indeed feel that a nit-pick was in order, so that's the downer I went with.
I suppose most other nit-pickers probably would go with that same criticism you referenced about last year’s Royals starting pitching prospects.
Right
again. I didn’t mean to offend you. If we don’t nit-pick, where is the fun?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 30, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
Thing gose is a little low
He strikes out a lot, so people assume he’s some toolsy free swinger. But he has posted OBPs that are quite good for someone his age. He may be more mature than we think.
I see Gose growing into more of a .250ish AVG, 15HR, 25SB, 50BB, 150K RF
than a base-stealing whiz rangy CF. Ultimately I think his good range plus arm combo and major-league average power gets him shifted over to RF.
He has better than "good range"
This guy is like a deer running out there and has great OF instincts.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Nov 30, 2011 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
25 SB seems conservative
Not sure why he’d move to RF (unless he’s traded), it’s not like the Jays have a better defensive CFer
Derp
I suppose I should clarify that by "growing into" I meant
looking forward to 2016-2021. I’m just thinking that by that time the Jays will have a more prototypical CF with better on-base skills, equivalent range, little power, and a much weaker arm that will have to play CF by default. I’m also thinking that Gose will be several pounds north of two bills by then, too, and slower.
I think he sticks in CF
Marisnick seems more likely to be moved to RF than Gose IMO
by Matthew Mueller on Dec 1, 2011 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
odd
Gose doesn’t have a body type that will add a lot of weight. I also find it difficult to see him shifted over to RF given that he’s likely a better defensive CF than all but a handful now in the majors.
It's more that his arm and power
will give the Jays the opportunity to play two natural CFs simultaneously, one in RF (where range is also a definite plus) and one in CF. A shift to RF almost never is an option with a CF prospect given the absence of power, arm strength, or more commonly both. Gose provides the rare combo of both of those extremely tools in a CF prospect, and thus opens the door to having a very elite defensive team to the benefit of the pitching staff and team in general. The same argument could be made for shifting an Aaron Hicks to RF, if he ever hit for a lick of power (or ever hit a lick period). Or even a Starling Marte.
Gose is bar none the best CF in this system and one of the best in the minors.
Other people will be moving for him. He’s an impact defender.
How
much better is he than Marte (I have no doubts that Gose is better, by how much?)? The Pirates are crazy for indicating they won’t move Cutch (if he’s still around.. /sigh) to LF to make way for Marte, right?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 30, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
he has a lot more speed than Marte (Gose has plus plus speed). I dont know about his arm but for Gose, he’s got a great arm that could be good at RF so the tools are probably better than Marte. Of course that doesn’t mean Gose is better as Marte can be better at reading the ball off the bat/taking better routes
I haven’t seen either but Gose is highly praised for his defense. I can’t wait for Gose to come up and watch his play. He’s gonna be exciting to watch
by Sniderlover on Nov 30, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
I haven't seen Marte live, sadly.
He sounds like he’s going to be very good as well, though. Gose just glides… he’s really fun to watch flash the leather. I wouldn’t worry about Marte vs. McCutchen anyway. Who cares? If I were the Pirates I’d just wish I had another CF who hits like those two to slide in LF, too. I’m a big fan of playing natural CF types in the corners and making them impact defenders. Has so many benefits for your pitching staff.
Oh
yes I completely agree. I tire of even hypotheticals that the Pirate should trade Marte or they should trade McCutchen because it makes no sense to keep both. Especially in a cavernous LF like the one in PNC park, it makes sense to have two CF types.
I just think a little will be lost keeping Cutch in CF and moving Marte to LF, but it’s not a big deal as you pointed out.
As far as seeing Marte play, I’ve seen him a handful of times. He obviously had good range and great speed, but I wasn’t attuned enough at the time to really put a definitive grade on his “glove” tool (not sure I am now).
As far as the arm, I think it’s kinda surprising as to the variance in reports. I have no doubt in regards to my own eyes that’s its an elite, elite arm. I’m not really sure if its a 65 or a 75, but I saw him throw out a guy at 3B from Right-Center in Appalachian Power Park (dimensions are 330-400-320) while standing on the warning track. He also wasn’t standing, like he had a chance to measure the ball and get some momentum heading forward. He caught the ball on the run, ranging back to his left (my right) and planted one foot, wheeled in a circle, and threw an absolute missile to the 3rd baseman. It was perfectly on target, about knee level and the ball couldn’t have ever gotten more than 15 feet off the ground. Honestly, I’m not sure who the runner was; he may have been a base-clogger, but my vague recollection (of the runner, not the throw) makes me think he was more of a below-average guy than a David Ortiz. That two outs ended the ending, and Marte got standing applause the entire way back to the dugout.
Not good at trig, but the throw had to be around 300 feet right. (I believe, doing some rough math?) Regardless of the exact distance, it was the most impressive throw I’ve ever seen, maybe ever, and definitely live.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry
to hijack the thread, so I will add this about Gose. I saw him play when he was still in the Phillies system. I don’t remember much, but I do remember he looked super-athletic, and he showed that athleticism off stealing a base. Man he can fly.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 1, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
He was very impressive live.
Tools are explosive. Most surprising to me was how polished an approach he has. He works the count plenty… he just has some holes in his swing and pitch recognition issues that lead to Ks. He’s not some raw athlete who has no idea what he’s doing up there. Still has a ways to go, obviously.
When we were doing our Pirates list at BB
We actually spent a good amount of time comparing Gose and Marte, btw. George Springer is in the same vein, as well. I love all three of those guys. I think Gose and Marte are fairly similar and going to rank closely on my top 100. Marte has the better hit tool, but Gose’s tools are a little bit louder. Its a fun discussion. I haven’t decided where to put them yet and I may cop out and put them right next to each other. : )
I'm looking 5 to 10 years down the road...
and at a prospective situation similar to the McCutchen-Marte decision (discussed below). Gose’s arm will move him to RF, whereas McCutchen’s legs-over-arm bias and the huge LF expanses at PNC Park will move him in the other direction.
Daniel Norris
Bradley A-
Norris B+
Guerrieri B
None has not pitched enough on pro balls. What determines grades for draftees hasn’t played pro balls yet? Pre-draft rank indicates Guerrieri and Bradley are very close while Norris little behind but not too far.
by Patrick Relano Kim on Nov 30, 2011 8:23 PM EST reply actions
well
Well this reflects how much I personally like them
by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
Second
question in a more general sense. From reading your work for a few years, I feel like the biggest grade split in your system is B+ to an A-. Therefore, I’m wondering on Bundy, Bradley from this year and Taillon from last.
Now, I’m not surprised Bundy got an A- and Taillon a B+, especially considering you did admit the B+ for Taillon may have been a bit conservative (just pointing our your words, not saying you were wrong for the record). On the other hand, Bradley getting a A- slightly surprised me.
Not even necessarily disagreeing, but just wondering as to your rationale and thinking?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 30, 2011 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Two quick questions for John
if you don’t mind.
1) How much of Nestor Molina’s ranking is based off results vs. how much is based off scouting reports?
2) Where do you think Henderson Alvarez would have ranked if eligible?
molina
Molina is both stats and scouting reports. I think the scouting reports that are out there are underrating his stuff. But we will see.
Alvarez….oh, you’re talking another B/B+ guy.
by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
How many times did you get to catch the Jays guys this season?
You must have had your work cut out for you at those games with so many great prospects.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Nov 30, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
jays
Saw AAA plus guys in Arizona Fall League inc Gose and Hech. No way I could catch all of these guys on my travel budget, but I don’t pretend to.
by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2011 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
etc
And everything I can find on video, word of mouth, etc for guys I can’t see. Just like any other team
by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2011 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
I am jealous
Living in Canada I don’t get to see many minor league games at all. I have to go on a road trip to check out any team outside of the Toronto/Buffalo area.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Nov 30, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
Yeah that is an issue for me too. Since Wichita lost its team, it is a minimum 250 mile drive for me to see minor league games. I do what I can, and the Arizona Fall League is indispensible. Four days there brings in immense amounts of information and observation
by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Thank God D'Arnaud is only a B+
If he was an A, there would be Arencibia trade threads for the next month on BBB.
by Matthew Mueller on Nov 30, 2011 9:24 PM EST reply actions
this was from John's pre-2011 list
8) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade B-. Hitting .222/.284/.457 with 17 homers, 23 walks, 89 strikeouts in 293 at-bats for the Blue Jays. Exactly as predicted: lots of power, but a poor batting average and OBP.
B+ > B-, no?
Derp
B+ is better but not by a margin to rush him when you still have 2 pre-arbitration years of B-
by Matthew Mueller on Nov 30, 2011 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
no one said we should rush him
the idea is that when d’Arnaud has a season of AAA under his belt and is ready for the majors the Jays should trade Arencibia. Not THE JAYS SHOULD TRADE ARENCIBIA RITE NAO.
Derp
I hope the Jays deal Arencibia
The guy is terrible behind the plate and can’t take a walk. Hopefully by midseason Alex A is able to rob yet another GM in a smart deal.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Nov 30, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah... are Jays fans blinded by the HRs?
I’m not getting this. JP Arencibia isn’t a very good player. His defense is just a notch above brutal. He’s putting up gaudy HR totals because he sells out for power and b/c of his home park. He is not an effective major league hitter. There are worse options at catcher, I suppose.
The Heidi Watney thing was great. I'll give him that.
He’s a useful major leaguer… but D’Arnaud is the total package.
no, everyone sees D’Arnaud as the future catcher. I dont think JPA is as bad as some say, there is room for improvement. I think he could be an average cost controlled catcher for years which is valuable. I just wouldn’t trade him right now until D’Arnaud is fully ready.
And you gotta admit, it’s fun watching him hit homeruns. They are massive bombs!
by Sniderlover on Nov 30, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'm certainly not blinded
Jays fans tend not to be the biggest Arencibia supporters.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 1, 2011 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
Well, Jay fandom is pretty divided about him
I like him, but I also think it’s pretty early in his mlb career to really know what he will develop into. I watched a lot of Jay’s games in the last 1/2 of the year. His defensive play was bad, but it did get better, esp in the last month, which to me was a pretty good sign. He played through some injuries, and though his offensive stats (except for the power – 20 doubles, 23 HR) look real bad, he was hitting 7th and 8th all year (as far as I know). He had a lot of “clutch” hits (78 RBIs in only approx 443ABs), so that means your going to get some fan love. A lot of people think he’s going to fall flat on his face, but I think they should cut the guy some slack. He plays a tough position and it was his rookie year. He had to learn the hitters and learn about his own pitchers. I don’t know, he could go either way.
by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on Dec 1, 2011 3:17 AM EST up reply actions
I think he'll end up hitting a bit more than this year & bouncing around as a starting catcher for about 5 teams in his career.
Never a great option but doing ok enough to hold down starting jobs until a better option comes along and/or teams tire of his defensive shortcomings. In the Miguel Olivo/Yorvit Torrealba/Jose Molina class of catcher. Not saying he has similar strengths or weaknesses to those guys, but that he’s overall roughly as valuable and pretty close to fringy regular but there aren’t 25 good options in the league at any point so some team can always use him…
While I'm thinking about it
Blocking balls he was very bad, but the last month he looked a bit better. He always looked real good in front of the plate. He has a decent arm, and his footwork was getting better. Maybe he just needs some major league coaching.
by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on Dec 1, 2011 3:31 AM EST up reply actions
His blocking, receiving and framing all look pretty bad to me.
He just doesn’t move well/naturally back there. I agree his arm isn’t that bad. I didn’t watch him every day so I can’t say if he improved at the end of the season…
Carlos Perez
I think your first instinct was right with Perez. I would personally have him right up there either in front of Anderson or directly after.
I agree with the D’Arnaud and Gose rankings….both have some ??’s.
Somewhat OT
But apparently Marco Paddy has been hired away from the Jays by the White Sox (link). I had not seen this before, maybe explains why the Jays were interested in bringing in Minaya. This is now two scouting people to leave Toronto, along with the loss to Baltimore
wow, talk about uncontrollable boners
17 B- or above? just wow
Seňor Octubre
by Baseball North on Nov 30, 2011 10:58 PM EST reply actions
catch
Well he can be the best C prospect in baseball and still be a B+
by John Sickels on Nov 30, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Hutchison B+ for sure
Like others have said, Hutchison might be the best of all the pitchers. Definitely deserves the B+. Polish for days, exceptional command.
I would disagree.
When I saw him his stuff was pretty mediocre and his command (esp FB) was nothing great. He’s deceptive and throws across his body and that helps him fool hitters a lot. He’s a solid pitching prospect, but he’s a #3 at best IMHO – and there are too many exciting arms in this system to say he might be the best of them. If you lined him up next to Aaron Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Norris, etc… and watched them all throw next to each other I very much doubt Hutchinson would stick out in a good way to you. Again, still a good prospect and he should be a solid major league pitcher… I just wasn’t overly impressed here. Fwiw, my view of him agreed with those of others I asked and his BA league reports, as well.
He pitched the day before I saw Hutch at NH.
I was very curious about him and had a long conversation with Dave Gershman at the game – he had been there the day before as well (I had chosen to watch Brad Peacock go for Syracuse instead). So second hand (perhaps third hand as well), but Dave was pretty dismissive and told me the scouts he talked to thought Molina fit best in the pen. I’ve heard more positive things since, though. I will absolutely be looking for the first chance to see him next Spring.
Thanks very much!
I’ll actually have full reports and videos for D’Arnaud and Hutchinson (and perhaps others – at least another video for Gose) at some point. Right now the comp I use for video editing is having video card problems… which is probably for the best as I’m swamped with top 15 lists and top 100 prep. Again, thanks for the kind words.
yeah I think Hutch, while great is probably more of a "B" than B+
people are talking about Nestor Molina’s high rank….
But for me I think Deck McGuire should only be a “B” and would rank behind all of
Molina, Syndegaard, Nicolino, Hutchison, Norris and maybe even Cardona….
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
MLB Move Type "B" compensation to the post second round, pre third round area.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 1, 2011 5:01 AM EST reply actions
AJ jimenez
as a guy who owns jimenez in a super deep league, what the hell happens there. nobody ever even mentions him because the jays already have so many other catchers. trade? winds up blocked forever grandal style? i really like his odds to make it, given opportunity, just because plus catcher defense + a bat with any kind of pulse = a hell of a prospect these days.
and because we need him to get to the majors and take on the mantle of “catchers named AJ who hit for average without a lot of power” before pierzynski retires
not related, but is Grandal really blocked?
Sure seems like Cincy could do just fine playing Grandal and Mesoraco 80 games/year behind the plate and another 70-75 elsewhere.
I think he'll get his due, given that he keeps up the performance/progression
Carlos Perez was the hot youngster last year as TBJ C prospect, even overshadowing D’Arnaud et al, but took a bit of a tumble this season. The ebb and flow of those catching prospects will change every few months, it seems. Jimenez and Nessy will likely be the hot names next offseason…patience.
I like his chances too
it’s too bad for him d’Arnaud had such a breakout year. But I’m sure he’ll start for some team eventually, unless he fails to continue what he’s doing now.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Jang on to Jimenez.
The only areas in which d’Arnaud has Jimenez clearly beat now is in the power (more so) and walking (less so) department. Jimenez could easily hit for a high enough average to offset the rarer walks and seems destined to make better contact and be a better baserunner as a big leaguer. On the defensive side, Jimenez appears to be every bit as good of a receiver and clearly has the better throwing arm of the two. Throw in the lack of year-to-year consistency in d’Arnaud’s (love the double apostrophe) offensive numbers to date, and there remains some question as to how much of an offensive force he’ll be in the big leagues. In short, I wouldn’t at all be shocked if Jimenez wound up getting the majority of the Blue Jays catching time this decade.
With this system, the Rays system, and the vast amount of resources the Yankees and Red Sox have, the AL East is going to be unbelievably difficult over the next 5-7 years.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 1, 2011 11:24 PM EST reply actions
"Can
we move to the AL West instead of the Astros?"
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 2, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Las Vegas affect
Four NH Fishercat alums will be on the proverbial prospect bubble in LV and they’ll be putting up some interesting numbers (plus or negative) and clarifying some of the concerns/questions surrounding their status. If they can improve their numbers/approaches to the same extent that Arencibia/Cooper/Loewen did when they came to Vegas then the nonpitching side of the Blue Jay prospect ledger should come into more of a balance ?
Adeiny Hechavarria will be followed closely to see if he can replicate the numbers that he put up in August in his first go-round with hitting coach/guru Chad Mottola. If he does, how far up the list will he go and will he surpass his buddy Jose Iglesias as a top 100 prospect ?
Moises Sierra tailed off towards the end of his season in NH but it was somewhat understandable given that 2010 had been a virtual write off due to injury . His HR numbers should carry over more so than Cooper’s did because he has plus power and if his batting average numbers even improve by half of what Cooper’s did then he will be another guy on the rise . The one thing that I remember about Sierra when he was playing in Lansing was that he was considered the looked to “leader” of that teams youth movement and that he was referred to as ‘El Toro’, the Bull. Now if someone in the organization could help him improve his SB/CS numbers and if he can have another healthy year then that would remove some of the questions that continue to nag his 5-tool prospect status. He is the one bat in the organization that includes the word power in its description.
The most interesting prospect graduating to LV to watch in my mind will be Michael McDade. He is defensively adept but speed impaired. If he can translate his physical attributes into more HR production then he could become the new and improved, physically in shape Prince Fielder 2.0 ? He will have to moderate the affects of his mother’s home cooking however.
Anthony Gose is the fourth of interest prospect and probably if he finds the ability to stop swinging at curve balls in the dirt, the prospect with the highest upside. His plus-plus speed, his plus arm and his plus defence are not in doubt . His at plate approach is improving along with his ability to take a walk. His OBP will always be supplemented by his swagger induced high HBP numbers . His BABIP will probably not be impacted as much by the Vegas affect because it may be neutralized by the speed of the infield which may work against him . However, it will be interesting to see how many triples he will hit into the wide open allies of LV’s stadium ?
In closing , all of these guys will benefit from the positive difference of playing baseball in springtime New Hampshire to playing in the bright lights of the warm desert climes in Las Vegas.
Cooper
A fairly deep prospect list when a guy puts up a batting line of .364 /.439 /.535 with 96 RBI and a 67BB: 43K ratio in 120 games in his first go round in Triple A at age 24 and doesn’t even make the top twentyfive and is relegated to the OTHERS OF NOTE list with 18 “others” …
Cooper
He is a weird prospect…he has power potential (51 doubles in 2011) but it seems to not transfer into HR’s (9 in 2011). He has shown an improved batting eye and actually walked more than he struck out in 2011 but he just doesnt fit the “profile” of a 1B/DH. He kind of reminds me of a James Loney-type…but to lesser degree.
by James Westfall on Dec 2, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Las Vegas
Is not that great a place for lefties to hit HR – 96 park factor according to Statcorner. On the other hand, it’s a great place for lefties to hit 2B (126 park factor).
In a more neutral park, some of those 2B are probably HR (and a number of them probably aren’t 2B at all)
Wow
For me I have 5 of the Blue Jays’ 2011 draftees taking up the bottom 5 spots of the top 15. Comer, Stilson, Anderson, Dean, and Lopes in that order.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
This just in
Nestor Molina has been traded to the Chicago White Sox for Sergio Santos.
lol
Number 2 prospect of Jays traded for reliever
not just a reliever
a closer…which is what the blue jays desperately needed. the bad part is….
He was formerly a shortstop in Toronto’s minor league system from 2006-08. Which kinda sucks that you have to give up your highly valued prospect for one of your flunky prospects who went bizzaro-Rick Ankiel.
But the silver lining….
He signed a three-year, $8.25MM deal with the Sox in September. The contract includes three club options, so the Blue Jays have cost certainty on Santos potentially through 2017
all in all this might be a really good trade, especially if molina ends up in the bullpen.
by James Westfall on Dec 6, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
John regards Molina higher than just about anyone else
Including MLB scouts. Not knocking his grade/ranking by any means, but there are enough concerns about his delivery/stuff that might mean Molina is also headed to the bullpen.
That being said, not sure why you trade a bullpen guy for a guy that MIGHT be a bullpen guy and MIGHT be a #2/3 starter, especially one as unproven as Santos. But if I’m a Blue Jays fan, I’m happy they didn’t want one of the higher upside guys in Syndergaard/Nicolino/Norris/Hutchison because I think all four of those guys have a greater chance to remain as a starter. John will obviously disagree, but I’m not so sure the MLB scouts will.
Ken Rosental
just tweeted his rival GM source believes Molina will be reliever in MLB. “If so, not good” says Ken.
Anthony Gose Update
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2011/12/14/gose_feature/
Hey John, just wondering if you had any time to see this article on Anthony Gose.
You were worried about his strike out rate and in this article is says that the coaching approach all of last year was to develop power, even in 2 strike counts, meaning they wanted him to forget about bunting and singles the whole pitch count and focus on the reworked stance to create power.
This year, they say they are allowing him to bunt and slap for singles, especially in the 2 strike counts once again.
Does this give you any reassurance that his k/bb rate was an exception?
Sanchez
I think he’s clearly better than the rest of the B- prospects. I’d probably have him a B.
Kevin Comer
He is drafted on 1s. He has good frame (6’4″ 210 lbs )and hits 94mph.
Why is his grade less than B- ? I think he can be B-.
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