Community Pitching Prospect Discussion (#21-25)

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 28, 2011 12:22 PM EST

This thread is for on-going discussions about the next few positional players you think should be elected to the Community Pitching Prospect list.

In the current positional poll, Martin Perez, Robbie Erlin and Zack Wheeler are leading the polls. Discussion about them is probably best left for this and the upcoming pitcher polls. I'd like to discuss the others getting votes, but not as many.

Some guys that have been getting votes beyond those two, that might be interesting to discuss: Matt Harvey, Arodys Vizcaino, A.J. Cole, Manny Banuelos, Trevor May, Nestor Molina, Drew Hutchison, Brad Peacock, Sonny Gray, and Tyrell Jenkins.

Others that have been added but have no votes yet: Mike Montgomery, Keyvius Sampson, Garrett Richards, Jarred Cosart, Jake Odorizzi, Taylor Jungmann, and Jed Bradley.

The current tester list includes these names as of now: Matt Barnes, Wily Peralta, Casey Kelly, Dellin Betances, Joe Wieland, Zach Lee, Chad Bettis, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard

Feel free to discuss any of these guys, but try to keep it to players you'd at least consider voting for by pitching poll #25 (plus any negative opinions about players getting significant votes now)

The last time we had a discussion thread like this, it didn't work out so great. I don't mind if people name their top 5 remaining or whatever, as that might spark a debate, but I think ideally we'll have some more specific 1 on 1 debates or 3-pitcher discussions, maybe involving a couple high floor types or instead a few young high ceiling types, or players you like based on stats vs scouting reports. I'm not sure what, but there must be some specific things that make some people prefer A.J. Cole to whoever.

If this one doesn't create much discussion, I'll probably just discontinue these.

PITCHING RESULTS SO FAR:

#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%

#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%

#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%

#04 - TREVOR BAUER - 40.0%

#05 - TYLER SKAGGS - 30.0%

#06 - GERRIT COLE - 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)

#07 - JAMESON TAILLON - 26.0% (34.7 In 3-Way Runoff, 51.2% In 2-Way Runoff)

#08 - DYLAN BUNDY - 39.3%

#09 - DANNY HULTZEN - 45.6%

#10 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 31.6% (51.5% In Runoff)

#11 - DREW POMERANZ - 34.2%

#12 - JACOB TURNER - 45.7%

#13 - JARROD PARKER - 44.4%

#14 - JAMES PAXTON - 24.6% (51.6% In Runoff)

#15 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 48.0%

#16 - RANDALL DELGADO - 28.6%

#17 - ARCHIE BRADLEY - 33.3%

Tweet Comment 26 comments | 3 recs |

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Comments

My next 5...

- Z Wheeler
- Peacock
- Harvey
- May
- M Perez

by rhd on Nov 28, 2011 3:19 PM EST reply actions

Copied from current pitcher poll, but to generate some discussion

I have Harvey ahead of Wheeler personally. Wheeler has one year age advantage, but Harvey has made it to AA and been successful already while Wheeler played out the year in A+.

Harvey: 27.5 K%, 8.3 BB%, with a .331 BABIP and a 2.91 FIP.
Wheeler: 26.1% K%, 10.5 BB%, with a .309 BABIP and a 3.26 FIP.

To me, it seems Harvey has performed better at a higher level, and with room to improve once his BABIP normalizes. Are the Wheeler supporters putting too much stock into his 27 IP after the trade? His BB rate dropped by 3 BB/9, but I don’t believe that is sustainable going forward. Just curious what Wheeler supporters see in him to put him above Harvey.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

I know you won't like me for this but . . .

When a guy has a high BABIP it is on him to prove it was a fluke. I don’t think you can just assume that it will even out. It could very, very easily be argued that Wheeler pitched better in AA . . . of course. Also, Wheeler would be roughly the millionth young pitcher to start to harness his control at the age of 21. It happens.

It doesn’t matter, of course, its just baseball talk but, just as a theoretical point . . . don’t you think it kinda unfair to both exclude Wheeler/’s ERA, the record of how well he did what he was supposed to do, AND say his FIP was worse? He allowed zero homers, and five walks in AA.

"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.

by casejud on Nov 29, 2011 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

There's very little to suggest based on just 135 IP that Harvey's high BABIP is talent-driven.

Yes, he has to prove it, but it’s something like the 80th-most-likely reason he might fail.

by psiogen on Nov 29, 2011 2:24 AM EST up reply actions

Well... maybe

It looks like Matt has had fairly high BABIPs in college and, in the FSL. Also, I was just suggesting that Wheeler pitched better at AA, not that Harvey would fail.

"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.

by casejud on Nov 29, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Wheeler never graduated to AA

Harvey’s BABIP (quick napkin number) in his last year of college ball was a svelte .285. Higher as a sophomore, lower again as a freshman.

by psiogen on Nov 29, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

Based on sample size, and historical trends of BABIP

I would bet against Harvey having a .330+ BABIP next year.
I think it is much easier for Harvey to prove the BABIP was a fluke than Wheeler to prove his BB-rate in AA wasn’t a fluke.
FIP includes homers and walks, and you are looking at an incredibly small AA sample while ignoring his A+ sample, which was 3+ times larger.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 29, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

*Meant post trade sample vs pre trade sample

by cookiedabookie on Nov 29, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

Well, the argument for Wheeler is that he has better stuff, right?

No one’s saying that he has performed better than Harvey.

by psiogen on Nov 29, 2011 2:12 AM EST up reply actions

I was under the impression that their stuff is pretty equal

And Harvey’s control keeps him above Wheeler for me.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 29, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

They're certainly not far off, stuff-wise

I’ve been under the impression that Wheeler has a tad more oomph on his fastball these days.

by psiogen on Nov 29, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

My next five, not including Erlin

15. Matt Harvey
17. A.J. Cole
18. Jake Odorizzi
19. Brad Peacock
21. Arodys Vizcaino

I don’t understand Martin Perez going on this early. I have him at 30 personally. He has not performed up to his stuff for two years now, regardless of the aggressive promotions. Last year, his BB-rate jumped, this year it fell some, but he had an even greater drop in K-rate. This combined with a high WHIP and hit-rate does not scream dominance to me. He has pretty high BABIPs throughout his career, so either Texas has horrible defense throughout their minors, or Perez is an extremely unlucky player, or his stuff is more hittable than the scouting reports would suggest.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2011 4:11 PM EST reply actions

Joey Butler logged a non-trivial amount of innings for round rock in Centerfield

think about that for a minute.

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

btho Iowa State

by MonkeyEpoxy on Nov 28, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

25 games, 55 chances

say 5 games, 11 chances were during Perez games (if you want to look it up, go ahead). That still isn’t enough to account for the high hit rate and BABIP this year, much less the previous four years.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 28, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

I think you are a bit harsh

He was 20 last year. Texas really hasn’t handled him very well. He’s got 3 plus if not better pitches in the making, so this isn’t a case where we’re hoping that the stuff will catch up to his competition and translate into results. He’s just a guy still learning how to pitch. There are a wide range of potential outcomes with him, but on sheer upside, there aren’t too many who can offer this kind of complete package.

Perez is getting dinged because the Rangers decided to go crazy and push him again just when he was starting to find some stable ground. Take his AA stats, project them over a full season, put it together with his scouting reports, and you have a guy who should be MUCH higher than he’s going to end up here.

by mrkupe on Nov 29, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Said much better than my attempt in the other thread.

http://bullpenbanter.com

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Nov 29, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

I agree, he has a lot to dream on

But I want to see some results, and to see him be less hittable. As someone said in other post, maybe it is a command problem, and he can fix it. But until he does, I am still going to be more skeptical than others.

by cookiedabookie on Nov 29, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

he had results

He pitched great in the Sally at age 18, and very well in the Texas League as age 20. In other words, he’s handled aggressive promotion reasonably well, he just hasn’t handled insanely aggressive promotion very well, which shouldn’t surprise.

His command isn’t awful, but I do think he needs to get a little more aggressive. He’s a little too finesse at times, a little scared of getting hit, and he ends up getting himself into trouble when he’s not perfect as a result. That’s where I think the overly aggressive promotion has really worked against him, and it’s taking him some time to get back into good habits. The hope is that eventually he’s going to figure out just how special he is – lefties who sit 93-94 mph with two killer secondaries don’t grow on trees.

by mrkupe on Nov 29, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Does anybody here like Joe Wieland, Padres?

"No good marriage ends in divorce" - Louis C.K.

by casejud on Nov 29, 2011 12:04 AM EST reply actions

yes i do

tough to keep a 96/4 k/bb after a promotion, but his peripherals did slip a bit.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Nov 29, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions

Yes

In terms of raw #s, he’s tough not to like. Everything I’ve been able to discern about him seems to point to a future (& not an improbable one) as a third to fifth starter but there’s nothing wrong with that.

Considering some of the talent still remaining on the list, Joe Wieland would be a little ways off for me but not by much. I think he is a safer bet to be an MLB contributor than some other types out there also & he’s not dissimilar to Drew Hutchison it seems. Wieland will be barely 22 this Spring & he already has 70 very successful AA innings under his belt & even if there’s not a ton of supposed projection, he’s worthy of consideration in my estimation. I like him better than Robbie Erlin for what that’s worth.

by Matt0330 on Nov 29, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions