Los Angeles Dodgers Organization Discussion
by John Sickels on Nov 23, 2011 2:00 PM EST
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PrintI am currently working on the Baltimore Orioles Top 20 list and should have it done sometime this weekend. The next team on the list is the Toronto Blue Jays, and you can find their organization discussion here.
The next team after the Blue Jays is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Use this thread to discuss the Dodgers farm system, point out sleepers, etc. The development people here are currently operating under some serious financial constraints. How do you think they've handled it? How would you approach the 2012 draft if you were Logan White? Can you think of anything creative to do on the international side?
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I feel like Reed is going to be an incredible sleeper pick. Many thought he was a punt, but with his incredible fastball and slider from the left side and a changeup that appears serviceable, I don’t anticipate the innings jump next year to be a problem, and wouldn’t be shocked if we see him make an appearance in 2013.
Other than that
I think Songco is going to get no love, but DeJon Watson said just last week or so that they shortened his swing way up, so it’s not just Songco doing well in a hitter’s league and park.
Now that Songco's moved to 1st, which could be more of an org need anyway
and cuts down on defensive worries since he wasn’t good in the OF, do you think that could help bump him up in rankings, too?
You know I love the dude.
Hope, and think, you’re right about Reed, too. He’s not just going to be a reliever, as many thought when they drafted him.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Songco
Routinely had the best BP’s in the cal that I have seen… Very big raw power that also translates to games. Has to continue to mash to be considered legit prospect at 1b. May sneak into my top 100/125
by SoCalSoxFan on Nov 24, 2011 12:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Songco
Still, the best grade you could possibly give him is C+
As a side note, I think the biggest issue I have with the Dodger’s development staff is why they send every college hitter to low-A (Lemmerman being the only exception)? I’ve never heard Watson or White explain the thinking here.
Just did my Top 50...
It’ll be interesting to compare the lists.
I’m not as high on guys like Reed, Withrow and Federowicz as others are, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them ranked in this Top 20.
As G. Scott said, Songco won’t likely get much love, but I’m higher on him (and Blake Smith) than most out there.
As for sleepers, I think these guys are worth a look: Justin Boudreaux, Scott McGough, Scott Wingo and Josmar Cordero.
by FeelinKindaBlue on Nov 23, 2011 2:15 PM EST reply actions
I'm high on Blake Smith as well
He’s not a standout prospect, but he’s a solid outfielder with a canon for an arm that everyone sleeps on because his offensive stats don’t stand out all that much, though again solid.
I still have faith in Kyle Russell becoming a player who can actually make an impact in the majors. Strikeouts be damned!
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Org is still pretty pitching heavy, think White and Co. could've done better job drafting in that department
but there’s more to like here, much more imho, than there was from a depth standpoint 1-2 years ago.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
better job drafting position players, I meant above.
Will Lee still be #1? Still seems pretty solid to me.
And where will you guys put intriguing young outfielders Baldwin, Pederson and Garcia?
Gscott needs to put O’Koyea Dickson down as a sleeper here! ;)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I love O’Koyea. Love his swing, love his attitude, and I played with some guys at Sonoma who played with him and they say he’s a standup teammate (despite the obvious character flaw of growing up a Giants fan).
Kemp's extension
If they had instead elected to trade Kemp, do you think it would’ve sped up the rebuilding process? What kind of prospects could they have gotten? I think extending Kemp was a bit of a risky move; you’re basically expecting him to prove that 2010 was a fluke and 2011 wasn’t. That coupled with his .380 BAPIP… I still think Kemp is a great player, but few contracts that big have ever been “worth it”, and for a club that may not contend for another couple of years (with what I uneducated-ly perceive as a thin farm system) it seems like a bit of a waste of resources. Thoughts?
let's try splitting the difference, then
If he’s somewhere in the .850-.875 OPS range for the better part of his contract, it should work out fine. He’s only 27, and considering his athleticism, a long-term deal isn’t quite as risky as it might first seem.
They could have gotten a great package for Kemp, but it’s entirely reasonable to expect that even with a rebuilding effort, he’s still got a very good chance at being a productive member of the team when that effort bears fruit. Trading him for a bunch of maybes is just not going to be productive as long as they can afford the paychecks.
It never would have happened
But if Kemp was traded, I could see a team like the Royals possibly going after him (and jurrjens or another starter) and trading 3 of their top 10 prospects, with someone like Moustakes headlining it (it would be awesome to have a great 3B prospect). I’m sure I’m way off base, honestly, but I feel like the Royals are sick of not contending, and might make some moves this or next year.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Moustakas, Myers, Montgomery. Wow. I'd almost be okay with that package.
KEMvP
"You know Joe, if Keith Jardines last name was Johnson, the nickname 'The Dean of Mean' wouldn't work at all."
Why?
why would the Royals have trade six years of a all-star 3B for an expensive one year rental?
boooooyah
perhaps he meant “possible all-star 3B”?
and sanchez, you trade “possibilities” for the BEST player in baseball (statistically, anyway) any day of the week.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 24, 2011 4:48 AM EST up reply actions
3b must have been so bad
That they let people who hit just over .200 onto the as team
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
by Ivdown on Nov 25, 2011 2:26 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Zach Lee
Does anyone have any first-hand on Lee? Any current MiLB or MLB comparables? I know he’s a top prospect but I have no idea of his style.
I like him
Very nice idea of how to pitch, still refining the quality of his offerings. Throws lots of strikes using good pure stuff that could easily jump another notch or two.
Didn’t really generate an obvious comp for me, sorry.
I like him too, BUT
He is generally overrated. I wrote a long-ish report on him late in the year
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I guess it depends on how someone rates him :P
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Don't know why the link didn't work
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"Can you think of anything creative to do on the international side?"
spend a little cash to sign some talent? that’s one idea …
again
what “cash” do the Dodgers REALLY have to spend?
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 24, 2011 4:48 AM EST up reply actions
Given the Dodgers’ still strong brand identity across the Pacific Rim and the fact that everyone’s already caught up to and passed them in Latin America, I’d probably think about throwing a bunch of scouting resources into the amateur ranks in Korea, Japan and Taiwan and try to bring a core group of 17-18 year olds stateside.
by realitypolice on Nov 25, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
It would be nice to draft some hitters early
Even with people unsure about how effective Aaron Miller and Chris Withrow will be, we still have Zach Lee and Nate Eovaldi, plus Rubby De La Rosa to come back from Tommy John surgery.
I’d say that was a pretty good group of starting pitchers before we even get to Chris Reed.
I’d like to see the Dodgers pick more hitters earlier in the draft.
I know there may not necessarily be a premium bat available in the first round, and we probably won’t have a large draft budget until we get a new owner, but I really think the offensive potential could be improved by avoiding pitchers if possible for the first five rounds or so and trying to add some bats.
Not only them
but you’re ignoring Allen Webster and Garrett Gould, arguably two of the top 3 prospects.
@TElciram
by Taylor Maricle on Nov 26, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
Respectfully disagree
In a system that lost Sands, Gordon, De La Rosa, Jansen, Elbert and Robinson (all Top 10 from BA’s list last year), Gould is easily a Top 5 guy in the system.
The Dodgers didn’t add enough high-end talent since last year to keep Gould from moving up. That and his good 2011 season for the Loons make it a no-brainer.
If he can consistently work in the low-90s with his fastball, he could be a middle-of-the-rotation starter in the Majors.
Where would you have Gould and who would you have ahead of him?
by FeelinKindaBlue on Nov 27, 2011 1:11 AM EST up reply actions
gould
I’d have to work out the exact order, but Lee, Joc Pederson, Songco, Reed, Eovaldi, and Alfredo Silverio are all definitely ahead of Gould. I’d also put Allan Webster ahead of Gould – he’s older by a year and a half, but he was more successful in AA than his ERA indicates. That’s seven Dodgers prospects right there. Gould is in the next grouping of Dodger prospects for me, in the 8-10 range. One could make a good case that he should rate even lower than that.
Gould looks like a back of the rotation arm to me, or perhaps a pretty good reliever. It’s not really a knock on him, he’s just rather average all things considered. There isn’t a whole lot of prospect-eligible player depth for the Dodgers after 2011’s graduations, but the situation is not bad enough to get Gould into the top 5.
BOR definitely.
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dude do you base eerything off stats for hitters?!
songco and silverio seriously ahead of gould?!
thats ridiculous… songco is a bad fielding first basemen who in his third year in the minors went to The cal league finally were he mashed but in that environment, which 23 year old college player doesnt.?!!….. the only good thing about him are the stats…
Silverio is 24 and hit .310 with an OBP less then .340… who does that in AA and doesnt get shred up in the bigs… 30 walks in over 600 PA…. plus Hes an Corner outfielder… not a top ten prospect….
Yess gould may be BOR type starter maybe MOR… He is a much better prospect then these two old hitters…
by matthewmafa on Nov 27, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
nope
Both of those guys are a little on the older side, but both also have legitimate talent. And I prefer what they offer to Gould. Gould’s not a bad prospect, but again, it’s not hard to find a guy who works high 80s-low 90s with a pretty good breaking ball.
I love how my willingness to respond to “who do you have in front of Gould” was somehow interpreted as me saying “my opinions suck and you guys should totally critique the hell out of them!”
The dodgers have no hitters who deserve to be top 5 in their system....
Joc may havve the only case but he even was horrible in A ball for over 60 PA before they sent him back to the offensive environment of the Pioneer league…
by matthewmafa on Nov 27, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
You're putting a lot of stock in songco and silverio
two guys who won’t ever take walks enough in the majors, and a rookie ball hitter in pederson.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
not so much
It’s not a very deep system, but all three are players who, if they figure it out, have at least some impact potential. So it’s more like “taking what I can get” rather than “putting a lot of stock” in those players.
I can appreciate going based off ceiling rather than floor
I’d rather go a little more towards floor at this point where I think Gould will at LEAST be a 4 or 5 starter, with potential for 3. I’ve got a lot less faith in the other guys, though I like Pederson a lot, he’s just at a really low level.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
Clearly there are other factors that matter
But Gould and Lee had almost the same exact season when it came to K/9, BB/9, and HR/9, with Lee’s being a little bit higher. Both did it in the same rotation, with about 14 more innings and a lot lower ERA (whatever people consider about ERA at this time is irrelevant, he was able to strand more runners than Lee at 72 to 69%).
I’m just as interested to see what Gould will do next year as Lee.
TBLA 2011 Postseason Prediction Champion
the guy above who tried to suggest I'm basing everything off of numbers should totally take you to task
Those “other factors” you mention are extraordinarily important when we’re talking about teenage pitchers, and much more important than the raw numbers. Especially considering that you’re trying to compare the performance of a second year player to a first year player.
Both guys are the same age, and Gould only had 60 innings prior to 2011
so I’m not thinking he has a huge step up on Lee just because of that. Honestly I don’t know much about mechanics or anything of the sort, so for someone like me I have to go off of the stats as the biggest part of evaluating a prospect. That’s why I feel they are so close.
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it's not just the innings
Gould had a full year of instructional training, which is something I think tends to get overlooked in many situations. Guys who spend a year or two in the short-season leagues aren’t just sitting around when they’re not playing in official games.
Lee throws a little harder than Gould as is, and he has the potential to add to that. He has better feel for a changeup. He’s way more athletic than Gould. He’s a little behind most players his age with his previous emphasis on football, and yet his overall game is comparable to most of those players. Performance-wise, Lee was a little lucky (ERA: 3.47, FIP: 3.68), but not on the level that Gould was (ERA: 2.40, FIP: 3.31).
If you believe Lee is a top 3 for this system
then Gould surely is. Near the same age, 2 years of experience and at the same level as Lee putting up similar numbers to him. They were drafted one round apart (Lee was first, Gould was 2nd round). That’s some serious Gould underrating here.
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Matt Magill
Another guy that gets somewhat overlooked. He’s not spectacular, but I could see him being an effective innings-eater type down the road. His fastball has been described as fringy, but he he has a deceptive delivery and good secondary pitches. Refining command of his fastball will be key.
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