Xander Bogaerts: The Next Elite Third Base Prospect?

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
2010	17	Red Sox	DOSL	FRk	BOS	63	280	239	39	75	7	5	3	42	4	5	30	37	.314	.396	.423	.819	101
2011	18	Greenville	SALL	A	BOS	72	296	265	38	69	14	2	16	45	1	3	25	71	.260	.324	.509	.834	135
2 Seasons						135	576	504	77	144	21	7	19	87	5	8	55	108	.286	.359	.468	.828	236

The Red Sox decided Bogaerts was ready for full season ball at the age of 17, and he did not disappoint. In a league where the average age was 21.4 years old, Bogaerts hit .260-.324-.509 with 16 HRs, 32 extra base hits, 45 RBI, 38 runs scored and a 71-25 K/BB rate.  The league average triple slash line in 2011 for the South Atlantic League was .260-.332-.392, so Bogaerts performance was that much more impressive. His plate discipline dropped a bit as he struck out in 27% of his at bats, while walking in just under 9.5% of his at bats but the drop was expected as he was very young for the league.

Here is what Baseball America had to say about Bogaerts in their Top 20 South Atlantic League prospect list, where they ranked him as the 10th best prospect,  a few weeks ago:

That is plenty of praise for the young Bogaerts, who will probably move a level at a time, and start the 2012 season at High A Salem in the Carolina league, where the average age of each player is just under 23 years old. Bogaerts has outperformed the league average in each of his minor league stops, so I would not be surprised to see him continue to do so in High A in 2012.

Mike Newman of Fangraph's and Scouting the Sally recently penned an article discussing Bogaerts and Greenville teammate Brandon Jacobs here, and had this to say about Baseball America ranking Jacobs ahead of Bogaerts in their Sally League Top 20:

As a believer in both prospects, their both being ranked in the top-10 is well-deserved and I commend Baseball America for it. However, to rank Jacobs above Bogaerts means the young outfielder is expected to profile as an elite power bat at the big league level with enough offense to offset the added value Bogaerts brings as a younger talent playing a premium position. With Bogaerts, the fact that he was able to hold his own in a full-season league as a teenager is very encouraging, and his added defensive value means that we don’t have to be quite as aggressive in projecting the development of his offensive abilities. Putting Jacobs ahead of Bogaerts implies that there’s a large expected offensive gap between the two, but having watched them both in person, I’d argue that’s probably not the case, and if asked to pick one of the two Sox prospects from Greenville this year, I’d take Bogaerts.

If you have read Newman's chats over at Fangraphs, you would know he is a big fan of Bogaerts, and I can see why. Bogaerts has performed above league average at each level in his minor league career and 2012 could bring more of the same. 

I can see him being ranked in many Top 100 prospect lists in 2012, probably in the first half, but with another solid season at the plate, he could be a Top 20 prospect in due time. He may eventually move to third base, but right now he will probably stick at shortstop till he proves he cannot stay at the position. Red Sox assistant farm director Ben Crockett had this to say about Bogaerts performance in 2011:

Xander has really impressed in his first season in the States, both with the bat and the glove," said Crockett. "He’s made huge improvements defensively since the beginning of spring training and has consistently displayed his athleticism at shortstop. At the plate he’s shown an impressive ability to drive the ball to all fields and at times shows an advanced approach for his age. Overall, Xander has excellent tools that profile at the highest level.

If he can stay at shortstop, not a definite, he could easily be a future Top 10 prospect should he continue to hit for power and improve his plate discipline a bit in 2012.