Tampa Bay Rays Preliminary Prospect List
by John Sickels on Nov 13, 2011 6:00 PM EST
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PrintThe first run gave me 60 names, which I have cut back to 51. I need to get this down to 45 at most and preferably fewer, as space is at a premium.
Jeff Ames RHP
Chris Archer RHP
Luke Bailey C he wouldn't even be a candidate if not for his reputation as an amateur
Nick Barnese RHP
Tim Beckham SS
Andrew Bellatti RHP seems cuttable
Ryan Brett 2B
Tyler Bortnick 2B
Matt Bush RHP
Russ Canzler OF he's old but I think he should be in there
Ryan Carpenter LHP
Kes Carter OF
Alex Colome RHP
Dane De La Rosa RHP cuttable?
Derek Dietrich SS
Johnny Eierman OF
Marquis Fleming RHP
Grayson Garvin LHP
Tyler Goeddel 3B
Granden Goetzman OF
Taylor Guerrieri RHP
Brandon Guyer OF
Jake Hager SS
James Harris OF
Oscar Hernandez C VSL Player, great numbers but is there room?
Braulio Lara LHP
Hak-Ju Lee SS
Lenny Linsky RHP
Kyle Lobstein LHP
Mikie Mahtook OF
Jeff Malm 1B nice power potential but cuttable
Parker Markel RHP
Brandon Martin SS
Jake McGee LHP
Matt Moore LHP
Taylor Motter SS good debut but cuttable
Justin O'Conner C
Matt Rice C good debut but cuttable
C.J. Riefenhauser LHP
Felipe Rivero LHP
Wilking Rodriguez RHP
Cody Rogers OF
Enny Romero LHP
Josh Sale OF
Cameron Seitzer 1B
Blake Snell LHP
Jacob Thompson RHP
Alexander Torres LHP
Drew Vettleson OF
Stephen Vogt C
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Cuttables List
Oscar Hernandez’s season, questionable splits or not, gave reason for him to be on a prospects list. On the other hand, I’d keep DDLR on the list over Russ Canzler.
Hernandez is a can't-cut
There are lots of reasons to be skeptical of the performance, but it was so far ahead of all other performances in the VSL that he’s just got to be in. This kind of crushing domination is very rare, and the combination of youth and power is appetizing. If we saw this sort of performance from a high school senior – and we’re right on age here – this would be a first round draft pick, no? At least, maybe?
by JRMayne on Nov 13, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yes
he’s played 401 games in his minor league career there, much more than any other spot.
But the Rays only put him there for 17 games in 2011 at Durham.
Career
401 G at 1b
118 G at 3b
76 in LF
57 in RF
Canzler, going forward, is probably a DH.
He has hit in his Milb career, so it all depends on whether or not you believe he can do it at the big league level. If you do, his floor should be enough to warrant a top 45 ranking.
Canzler seems eminently cuttable
As does Mottler. Malm’s performance earlier this season seems just too good to cut him
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions
Canzler? Really?
He was 25 and the MVP of an AAA league, also happens to be on the 40man after making his MLB debut. He’s definitely going to get some playing time, and there’s a decent chance that he actually ends up being a nice piece.
Dan Johnson was the MVP of the same AAA league the year before
Durham is a bandbox. I’m not ruling Canzler out but I’m skeptical of how much is his performance and how much is his home park
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Home - .303/.381/.522
Road – .325/.419/.537
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 14, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Whoa I was not aware of that
Then my only concern with him is his BABIP then which was really high for someone that slow, but that’s really reassuring to see
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
different case
Johnson was 30 in his MVP season and has been a 4A guy forever. Canzler was 25 and getting his first crack at this level.
As for BABIP, I wouldn’t worry THAT much. Hitters with good pop and legitimate skill tend to put up strong BABIPs. As for the relationship between speed and BABIP . . .something something you can’t steal first base something something.
What is the appearance limit for a RP?
McGee is up to 45 appearances over 2 seasons, though only 33 IP.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2011 6:34 PM EST reply actions
Maybe you need a special category here
There are 17 picks from the ’11 draft here due to the windfall of picks the Rays had this year. Obviously a number should be included, but perhaps a TBD category for the remaining until we get to see more of them.
It just seems this is such a special case this year that this might merit a different approach and maybe some extra space?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2011 6:43 PM EST reply actions
If that's doable
I’d include Guerreri, Mahtook, Hager, Linsky, Carpenter, Rice , Seitzer, and Motter.
Put the rest in the TBD file – which admittedly includes all the supplemental picks plus Goetzman and Eierman. That woud pull 9 from the grade list. Probably too blunt an approach. I might add Floethe, Alexander, and Faria to this TBD group given their good initial but limited performances.
I’m not saying they don’t qualify – and your greater access to scouting reports would likely suggest profiling a number of these as well.
I recognize performance – or lack of it – isn’t very meaningful at rookie ball levels, but the huge number of early picks might dictate a different approach. They can’t be ignored, but what can you do?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
cuttable with low ceiling : Andrew Bellatti, C.J. Riefenhauser, Marquis Fleming, Taylor Motter, Matt Rice, Cameron Seitzer, Cody Rogers,
missing names with higher ceiling : Guevara, Ty morrison, Todd Glasemann,
Rogers have a good power-speed combination, but he is litter old and have a contact issue too. It limits his ceiling as a 4th OF.
BA said Bellatti had low ceiling at NYP league top 20 chat. (87~91 fastball, slider and Change up average at most)
I wouldn't limit a player based on current fixable issues.
No one said Moore was limited to a wild starter due to command issues.
Did not know BA said that about Bellatti. I guess he is cuttable.
No kidding. rogers is absolutely not a moore level prospects and moore improved his command at 21. But rogers are 22 already. I think there are little chance for him to fix the problem. But, who knows? Maybe you’re right.
by homein22 on Nov 14, 2011 9:55 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Age isn't really a limit for overall upside.
If Rogers lacked athleticism or power (or something along those lines), I would call him a lower upside player. But, in general, toolsy players like Rogers are considered high upside.
Morrison seems like a big miss
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Wrigley is not a minors FA. (FA after 2012 season)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/11/minor-league-free-agents-2011/
You're right, I'm wrong.
But I wouldn’t include him regardless. Heck, he’ll probably just be another C guy. He had a decent year though, so whatever.
Not sure why he isn’t an FA though. Was drafted in 2005, played every season since and that would be 6 minors seasons.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2011 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
accroading to BA
“in many cases, his initial signing team simply has used all six of its contract renewals”
not “6 seasons”, but " six of its contract renewals"
2007 was Wrgley ’s first renewal and 2012 will be Wrgley ’s sixth one.
Oops
But if they signed him in 2005, didn’t they have to renew him in 6,7,8,9,10, and 11?
I guess it’s possible – but this would mean there’s no incentive to play a guy right away upon signing him after the draft – you’d automatically gain a year of control.
What is the quote source above?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Again I'm not sure
but my recollection is that draft and follow was long gone by 2005.
But again I’m wrong – it ended in 2007. Guess I’m just getting old.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 13, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
Hard to cut any of these guys
Canzler’s only 25, and it strikes me that he and Dane de la Rosa could play significant roles on the 2012 Rays. Hard to cut either of those guys, even though they’ve got limited upside.
On your ‘cut’ list, I would keep Bellatti and O. Herndandez based on upside. I would probably add Grayson Garvin to the cut list; if he’s healthy you can add him back in 2012. Next lowest on my list is probably Cody Rogers, who’s still interesting.
Kang
Dont have major issues w any of the cuttables. But I’d consider K.D. Kang for the list. More than held his own at AA, was pretty age-appropriate, good plate discipline and has been fairly highly thought of in the past.
Yes, Kand should probably be on the list.
Based off of his strong performances (with 2010 looking like an outlier), it looks ike he could be a solid 4th OF, if not better.
Hernandez
Oscar is a definite can’t cut. He had an unbelievable season and has a tremendous ceiling. He’s the type of prospect that deserves to be in the book.
by JagCo42 on Nov 13, 2011 9:41 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Ya
John, from my perspective, you shouldn’t cut Hernandez. Not because he’s a can’t miss prospect that needs to be included, but because he’s so controversial and interesting that you would be doing a disservice to yourself. It’ll be a good read in the book.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 13, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Why in the worl would you cut Malm or Hernandez?
Ty Morrison needs to be on the list. Cut Rice and Motter for sure.
Spann needs to be on the list. Lara and Barnese are potential cuts.
Here is what I would do.
Jeff Ames RHP
Chris Archer RHP
Tim Beckham SS
Andrew Bellatti RHP
Ryan Brett 2B
Tyler Bortnick 2B
Matt Bush RHP
Russ Canzler OF
Ryan Carpenter LHP
Kes Carter OF
Alex Colome RHP
Dane De La Rosa RHP
Derek Dietrich SS
Johnny Eierman OF
Marquis Fleming RHP
Grayson Garvin LHP
Tyler Goeddel 3B
Granden Goetzman OF
Taylor Guerrieri RHP
Brandon Guyer OF
Jake Hager SS
James Harris OF
Oscar Hernandez C
Hak-Ju Lee SS
Lenny Linsky RHP
Kyle Lobstein LHP
Mikie Mahtook OF
Jeff Malm 1B
Parker Markel RHP
Brandon Martin SS
Matt Moore LHP
Ty Morrison OF
Justin O’Conner C
C.J. Riefenhauser LHP
Felipe Rivero LHP
Wilking Rodriguez RHP
Cody Rogers OF
Enny Romero LHP
Josh Sale OF
Cameron Seitzer 1B
Matt Spann LHP
Blake Snell LHP
Jacob Thompson RHP
Alexander Torres LHP
Drew Vettleson OF
Stephen Vogt C
That is around 48. I just really think all 48 have excellent arguements to be there.
Juniel Querecuto in
I think Lobstein could be added to the low ceiling list
Matt Moore
Probably cuttable. Looked terrible in his big league appearances…
Motter
Why is he mentioned so often as cuttable? He had a strong debut (yes, I know, a college guy in Rookie ball, but still), ought to open 2012 in A- to high-A ball, more walks than strikeouts, decent speed, middle infielder.
*plays
With that in mind, it will take several years of strong performance (Tyler Bortnick) to show that he is worthy of the ranking. With this much depth in the system, he just seems like a logical cut.
OK, I can agree with the former part of this comment, but not the latter...
If you’ve got a dozen SS prospects, and they’re all true prospects, then they all should be listed…that said, I realize being a college player, Motter should dominate the lower levels. I just thought he would be amongst TB’s top-30, making his appearance on this list a given.
SS defense shouldn't matter if the bat isn't MLB quality.
And I would argue that it is certainly debateable at this point. There are plenty of fringe players on the cut list that have good defense but lack the bat.
I was also more curious...
are there qualities that Motter does/does not posses that makes him cut-bait material this early into his pro career.
I would also like to add that he is a top 45 player on EVERY other farm system.
I’m not convinced for the Rays though.
Whom to cut (in order to get to 45)?
I would cut:
Matt Rice, James Harris Jr. (too raw for top 45), Cody Rogers, Andrew Bellatti, Jeff Ames, Grayson Garvin, Cameron Seitzer, Dane da la Rosa
I wouldn’t cut (of the guys you commented on)
Luke Bailey, Russ Canzler, Oscar Hernandez, Jeff Malm
I’d add:
3 (mostly) injured guys: Jesse Hahn, Albert Suarez and Joseph Cruz
It has been two years of very poor showing in a row.
And while he may still have some potential, there is just to much going against it to rank him in the top 45.
While I'm dissappointed as well by his showing so far,
… he was young for A-ball and he seemed to being rushed a bit too much. His peripherals look ugly, but like Bailey I’d like to give him more time to prove his talent. He was higher regarded at draft day than e.g. James Harris (BA: -, MLB: -, DSS: 228, MLBBB: -, PP: -), Blake Snell (BA: 184, MLB: -, DSS: 157, MLBBB: -, PP: 69) or Jeff Ames (BA: 119, MLB: -, DSS: 176, MLBBB: 116, PP: -)
Cutting three first rounders can't be that good of an idea.
What does Bailey have on the first rounders>
insufficient data?
I mean I don’t know what you can say about Garvin that wasn’t said at the time he was drafted, plus there were injury concerns.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 14, 2011 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
But what do we have on Bailey?
That he has been terrible since drafted?
And for Garvin, the price was lower because of a prior injury, not a recent one.
I'm not really making a strong pro-Bailey argument
I just think Garvin is cuttable. But — as you know from my posts here and on DRB — I’m pretty low on Garvin relative to the rest of the community. Would love to be proven wrong, of course.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 15, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
I know that I'm higher on Bailey than most, but ...
… he had mid-first round talent (according to BA, Keith Law, …) when being drafted and (mostly) therefore I think his ceiling is higher than e.g. Garvins’ or Rices’
… he had major surgery and therefore I’d like to wait the ’12 season up first
… he was not THAT bad this year (other than his peripherals) while seemed to being a bit rushed
Bailey has been pretty bad
He has shown some power but not much else.
There’s only so much predraft scouting reports can tell you about these guys once they’ve actually hit the field.
Bailey ...
… was talent-wise much higher regarded on Draft Day than any of Harris/Garvin/Ames. Harris is very, very raw and (while most draft evaluators like the pick) was not in ANY top 100 lists prior to draft day. Garvin simply doesn’t have the ceiling of a 1st round pick (he was regarded as 1s/2nd round talent) and the injury-chatter makes me cautious and Ames was in not high on any top prospect lists as well, with the reason being the lack of secondary pitches. He looks like a reliever right now and therefore I need to see him performing well first.
Why do you think
people seem to rate O’Conner higher than Bailey? Neither has performed up to expectations.
I don't think either would rate very highly, but I have O'Connor ahead of Bailey
I’d give a minor nudge to O’Connor just on the basis of age (he has an extra year of development time to find himself), but a lot has to do with expectations. O’Connor was in his second year of catching and is from Indiana, so I think most were assuming the early going was going to be pretty rough for him (although not quite this rough, admittedly). Bailey is the more experienced backstop and much of his prospect prestige is based on his ability to hit, which he hasn’t. Last but not least, assuming neither really works out as a catcher, O’Connor offers more flexibility. He was a shortstop in HS and it’s not hard to see him breaking out offensively as a potential above-average glove 3B with power, kind of a Brandon Inge type. Of course, if he still can’t hit, he has a nice arm and could be a bullpen option. Bailey is pretty much either a catcher or a 1B, isn’t he?
I wouldn't cut Seitzer, he has some raw power and good bloodlines
I’m not ready to give up on him yet.
The reports on his raw power ...
… have not been that good and he was a bit old for his level. Therefore, and because he plays 1B (and not SS/2B) I like Motter more than Seitzer. But, I root for the guy as he is said to be a hard worker and as the Rays really really need a good 1B-prospect.
I can hardly wait for the actual rankings to appear
There isn’t enough cheese in Wisconsin to go with the whining we’ll here at that point.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 14, 2011 3:05 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
some comments
I want Canzler in the book. International League MVP and there is a chance he could play next year.
I am doubtful that Morrison and especially Glaesman will ever hit enough for their tools to matter. In many systems they would get in the book, but there is so much depth here that due to space limits they are very marginal in my mind.
James Harris is extremely raw but my policy is to put all first and second rounders in the book the year after they are drafted no matter how they did, since people will ask about them. Same reason I don’ t want to cut Garvin. I want Seitzer in the book due to bloodlines plus I got to personally scout him several times in college.
Making judgments about which Grade C guys to include is never easy.
list
Ok, here is the current working list.
Tampa Bay Rays 46 players
Jeff Ames RHP
Chris Archer RHP
Nick Barnese RHP
Tim Beckham SS
Ryan Brett 2B
Tyler Bortnick 2B
Matt Bush RHP
Russ Canzler OF
Ryan Carpenter LHP
Kes Carter OF
Alex Colome RHP
Dane De La Rosa RHP
Derek Dietrich SS
Johnny Eierman OF
Marquis Fleming RHP
Grayson Garvin LHP
Todd Glaesmann OF
Tyler Goeddel 3B
Granden Goetzman OF
Taylor Guerrieri RHP
Brandon Guyer OF
Jake Hager SS
James Harris OF
Oscar Hernandez C
Braulio Lara LHP
Hak-Ju Lee SS
Lenny Linsky RHP
Kyle Lobstein LHP
Mikie Mahtook OF
Parker Markel RHP
Brandon Martin SS
Matt Moore LHP
Ty Morrison OF
Justin O’Conner C
C.J. Riefenhauser LHP
Felipe Rivero LHP
Wilking Rodriguez RHP
Cody Rogers OF
Enny Romero LHP
Josh Sale OF
Cameron Seitzer 1B
Blake Snell LHP
Jacob Thompson RHP
Alexander Torres LHP
Drew Vettleson OF
Stephen Vogt C
Looks good, John.
I was thinking, shouldn’t Chirinos make the list? He gets forgotten, but there is a very good chance he tags along on the Rays. That alone should carry value, don’t you think? In terms of prospects, he isn’t much. But I think his bat will come along at the MLB level.
I do too but I don't think either should be in the book, fwiw I don't think Canzler should be either
I don’t see either one of those guys being anything more than a 4a/injury call up type player. AKA Justin Ruggiano and the system is to deep with talent/upside to include those type of players.
I disagree
John will probably be the only analyst/prospect guide seriously discussing Canzler and DDLR, and I see both of those guys with a shot to have significant roles with the 2012 team. It’s worth educating people in advance (and also, on a personal-reward level, being the first guy to call those guys out).
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 15, 2011 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
still think you should have Bellatti on there
too much upside to cut. But I know, it’s already at 46.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 15, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Still not thinking De La Rosa should be here
Sorry but a RP that’ll be 29 on Opening Day?
Yes he could contribute this year, but is that argument going to be made for every rookie eligible 29 YO RP that had a good 2012 AAA season?
Seems like some other guys of interest could easily replace him, or cut 1 more spot.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Nov 15, 2011 1:58 AM EST reply actions
Seitzer bandwagon
I drafted Seitzer in my dynasty league and I think he has sleeper potential. Well he is a sleeper everywhere but here I should say.
I think KD Kang has under-produced for years. I don’t see his power ever coming.
Matt Bush
Is that Matt Bush, the Padres former #1 overall pick? I heard he was too much of a partier, too much of a punk, and too ghetto (criminal) for the demands of minor league baseball. But he’s got a great arm for the bullpen. Maybe he should go train with Dr. Mike Marshall and learn what it takes to pitch in 100 games in a season. Then he would be tough enough to make it.
there have been a couple of pretty good articles written in the not-too-distant past about Bush
He certainly shot himself in the foot more than a few times, but I think it’s worth noting that the Rays (especially after Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes) have really put an emphasis on acquiring and developing high-character, hard-working players.
On a raw talent level, he’s very intriguing. His 2011 was a deceptively strong campaign, given the level, his lack of experience, and all of the injuries he had endured previously. With his arm, it’d be surprising if he doesn’t get a strong chance (as in, more than a cup of coffee) to establish himself as a major league piece within the next two years.
not sure how I missed this before but I would definately have Cole Figueroa in the book.
I know he is a little old for AA, but he isn’t that far behind a Tyler Bortnick. I love his ability to get on base and while his stolen base numbers took a big drop this year his power was up a bit.
i think he's more versatile, but lacks bortnick's upside.
theres a case where bortnick could be a starter at 2b on a good team. it’s unlikely, but given his speed/on-base skills you could see it. cole is no more than a good utility player, but i think he could make a little betetr util player than bortnick because i think hes better at ss/3b due to arm strength.
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