Community Pitching Prospect #7
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 12, 2011 8:32 PM EST
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PrintWith 24.3% of the vote in the open poll and 65.2% of the runoff, Gerrit Cole is elected Pitching Prospect #6.
RESULTS:
Gerrit Cole: 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)
Danny Hultzen: 24.3% (34.8% In Runoff)
Dylan Bundy: 13.5%
Jameson Taillon: 13.5%
Drew Pomeranz: 8.1%
Taijuan Walker: 6.8%
Jacob Turner: 5.4%
Carlos Martinez: 2.7%
Jarrod Parker: 1.4%
Archie Bradley: 0%
Nestor Molina 1.1% (write in)
CANDIDATES: Danny Hultzen, Dylan Bundy, Jameson Taillon, Drew Pomeranz, Taijuan Walker, Jacob Turner, Carlos Martinez, James Paxton, Martin Perez, Brad Peacock
IN ROTATION:Jarrod Parker (#6-1.4%), Archie Bradley (#6-0%)
TESTERS: Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino, Robbie Erlin, Manny Banuelos, Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann, Nestor Molina
#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%
#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%
#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%
#04 - TREVOR BAUER - 40.0%
#05 - TYLER SKAGGS - 30.0%
#06 - GERRIT COLE - 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)
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+1
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Nov 12, 2011 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
by MonkeyEpoxy on Nov 12, 2011 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
10
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 13, 2011 2:17 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Nov 12, 2011 8:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 12, 2011 10:31 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
+1
I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'
by mikel1218 on Nov 13, 2011 12:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 12, 2011 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
+1
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Nov 12, 2011 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 13, 2011 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
by Beachy Keen on Nov 12, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 13, 2011 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
OTHERS (Please Post Player Name AND Reply +1 To Officially Vote For Non-Listed Players)
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 12, 2011 8:35 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Zack Wheeler
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Hultzen's AFL line today
2.2 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 SO
In comparison to Bundy/Walker, I think its pretty hard to argue that Hultzen has a higher ceiling, however I’ll take the guy that will probably pitch in the majors next year and has a great shot to be a #2 (#3 on the mariners staff)
Look up next time
Hopefully the joke won’t fly right over your head.
Looks like a Hultzen, Bundy, Taillon race so far
May be our first three way tiebreaker
by cookiedabookie on Nov 12, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
Jameson Taillon for me....
The command he has shown has been off the chart for a guy coming from high school. Add that with above average, ace stuff and he is my pick.
Hultzen was very close though
Ya
I picked Taillon.. well cause he’s my 4th pitching prospect behind Moore, Miller, and Teheran in that order.
Obviously the community has picked Bauer, Skaggs, and Cole ahead of him as well, which is perfectly reasonable.
Why I think he needs to be picked now is because he’s arguably got the best frame of these guys, his fastball is top 3 (Walker and Carlos Martinez), and I’d argue he has the best offspeed pitch, his curve. He’s made it through a full year, which is a solid year in which he showed good strikeout numbers and great walk numbers.
For the record, I saw him about a half dozen times this past summer.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 12, 2011 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
curious
What does everybody make of Taillon’s handedness splits this year? It’s very strange to see that kind of split out of anybody at any level, let alone a classic fastball/breaking ball power teenage arm.
Personally nothing
I look and I see a superficial difference in batting average but, I’m encouraged that he was able to strike out and, not get hit hard, by left-handed batters. On the other hand, 8 homers allowed in 53.1 “Innings” vs righties is a little disconcerting but, not a lot. He attacked hitters and, missed bats pretty well.
" It's never just a game when you're winning" - George Carlin
okay, let me make it a little more clear
Against LH: 39 1/3 IP, 30 H, 1 HR, 15 BB, 52 K
Against RH: 53 1/3 IP, 59 H, 8 HR, 7 BB, 45 K
If you didn’t know who put up that line, you’d assume the pitcher almost certainly had to be left-handed, wouldn’t you? This isn’t a split you can just ignore.
My personal read on it is:
1) It confirms that not only is Taillon’s curveball as good as advertised (it’s at least a 70 on the 20-80 scale), but he’s already able to use it to neutralize left-handed batters . . .let that one sink in a bit. The guy might not even need much of a changeup other than for use against LH-heavy lineups.
2) For some reason, right-handed batters seem to pick up his pitches pretty well, and this is concerning to me. A guy with stuff like Taillon’s shouldn’t be getting hit like that, especially on his dominant side. You can explain some of the hits away due to defense (although poor defenses are a way of life in Low A; should we give that same benefit to EVERY pitcher there?), but giving up that many HR on his dominant side is pretty shocking. Getting hit is one thing, getting hit hard, that’s another.
I’ve had the notion that Taillon’s delivery gives RH batters too much time to track his pitches, that he’s a little too smooth for his own good (similar to one of the things that Casey Kelly struggles with). I’m not sure that is actually the case, but if so it would explain a lot.
Those are still both small sample sizes
Hard to determine an issue yet. If it is maintained this year, then maybe there is a problem.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 13, 2011 8:19 AM EST up reply actions
+1 on the small sample size
also, it looks to me, that he just threw in the zone to RH more consistently than he did to LH
by blue bulldog on Nov 13, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
it's a season's worth of work in the minors
It’d be like taking, oh, I don’t know, the statistics of a position player who got about 400 plate appearances this year and saying that they can’t tell you very much because it’s not large enough a sample size. Is that what you are suggesting?
Sure he threw in the zone more – but more than 1 H/IP, and giving up a HR every 6.5 IP suggests he wasn’t especially effective doing so. These aren’t obscure numbers of secondary importance – these are real numbers showing what actually happened. I don’t think they should be dismissed out of hand, even if more data is needed (is there ever a time when that isn’t true?).
?
his total season was slightly under 400 batters faced
once you split into left and right splits, then the sample size is a lot smaller. rough estimate of 150 BF against lefties and 250 BF against righties.
even though strikeout rates stabilize in that range, i don’t believe any other type of pitching statistic stabilizes in that range.
by blue bulldog on Nov 13, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
so, basically
You don’t really look at the pitching statistics of any decent teenage arm . . .?
no
i do
just take everything i read with a grain of salt, at least when sample sizes are concerned
overall, i see that Taillon had a 25% K rate and 7.9% BB rate in A ball over the course of 400 BF. that’s pretty good. and the scouting reports are very positive on him.
put together, that says he’s still a very elite prospect to me, and that’s all i care about at this point.
by blue bulldog on Nov 13, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
It’s 53 IP against RHH, which is more like 200 or so PA, which yeah, I don’t think that tells you too much. As I recall, though, you think his fastball is too hittable based on seeing him pitch a couple times, right? I think the fact that the stats back up your observation is important, even if the stats themselves don’t mean much. (FWIW, I don’t think we should read anything into the good LHH part of the split, either).
His
fastball certainly is hittable when left up in the zone, and that is a current issue for him. Still, when he drives that pitch down, which he needs to work on, it becomes a true 65 (conservative) to 75 (wild-eyed dreamer) pitch.
His curve is definitely a 70 pitch at least Mr Kupe. The thing is filthy. Maybe he won’t need a change-up as much more than a show-me pitch. He still has plenty of time to develop it though, and the Pirates are committed to him learning it.
I could be wrong, because I know Taillon better than anyone else on here, but I don’t see anyone else with a decent likelihood of having two 70-75 pitches, and that’s not even talking about his slider or changeup.
Speaking of his slider, does anyone know definitely if he throws one? DRAFT reports had him throwing a plus slider, etc. I never saw him throw a slider in about 5 starts this past summer. I confirmed that with scouts in the stands during a few games. His curveball has nasty horizontal movement, making it more like a slurve, at least according to my untrained eye. Is it possible his slider, as reported at the time of the draft, is simply a phantom? Personally, I don’t see that as that much of an issue. If he has a 70 fastball, curveball, and say a 55 change-up as a finished product, he could do just fine.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 13, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I posted this in the other thread, but you might have missed it
Don’t put too much stock in BA rating his fastball as a 70. They rated 23 of the 47 pitchers to make the top 100 as having at least a 70 FB ( and this is only based on the single best tool they listed, could actually be more than that). A 65 grade on Taillon’s fastball is far from conservative.
I'm
not basing it on just Baseball America. I’m basing it on seeing the thing multiple times
Also, realize I’m saying it ends up as a 65-75 if he learns to command it very well. I’m not saying it’s there right now because he doesn’t have great command with it, but on pure stuff, it’s a nasty nasty pitch.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 13, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
If you're making the assumption that he learns to command it very well
Than I wouldn’t exactly call that conservative. I’m not saying Taillon’s fastball isn’t very good or anything like that, but there are probably at least 15 guys in the minors with fastballs that are every bit as good.
It's
an if then statement. If Taillon develops great command of his fastball, then its a 65-75 pitch.
I mean, I feel like that’s perfectly clear and true. I guess maybe it would be easier to simply say, on stuff alone, Taillon has a 65-75 fastball.
I don’t think that’s in doubt. Considering how prevalent it is that a pitches best pitch is his fastball, there probably 15 guys with a 65-75 fastball (again on pure stuff)
Just off the top of my head…
Shelby Miller
Gerrit Cole
Taijuan Walker
Carlos Martinez
Matt Moore
Alex Meyer
Then you have a second tier that’s arguable
James Paxton
Dylan Bundy
Archie Bradley
And guys who are really just their fastball right now, but it’s still a 65-75 pitch
John Hellwig
Jose Campos
And I am sure there are many many more.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 13, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
Close
3 way race with a few other guys getting solid votes.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 13, 2011 4:56 PM EST reply actions
Ok, I'm closing this poll
Even though I hate 3 way runoffs, there is really no other choice. Hopefully the 20 people who voted for someone outside the top 3 will swing things heavily toward one of the pitchers.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 13, 2011 10:20 PM EST reply actions
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