Community Positional Prospect #6 RUNOFF
by gatling on Nov 11, 2011 10:41 PM EST
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PrintAfter 76 total votes, we have a 2 vote difference between two candidates: New York Yankees catcher Jesus Montero (26 votes - 33.8%) and Kansas City Royals outfielder Wil Myers (24 votes - 31.2%). We'll go to a runoff to determine Community Positional Prospect #6.
POSITIONAL PROSPECTS TO DATE:
#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 59.2%
#02 - MIKE TROUT - 38.8% (In Poll #1)
#03 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 52.9%
#04 - MANNY MACHADO - 31.5% (55.1% In Runoff)
#05 - DEVIN MESORACO - 45.1%
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JESUS MONTERO
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 11, 2011 10:41 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
+1
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 12, 2011 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
+1
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 13, 2011 1:03 AM EST up reply actions
WIL MYERS
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 11, 2011 10:41 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Nov 11, 2011 11:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
by mathisrocks5 on Nov 11, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 11, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"We did a lot of good things last year, and now we've got Julio ... That does nothing but improve the offense, and we expect to do better. That's our goal, to lead the NFL in everything. Every offensive category." -Roddy White
by Beachy Keen on Nov 12, 2011 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15469
^ the bottom video ^
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 12, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
+1
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Nov 12, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
DISCUSSION
http://bullpenbanter.com
RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage
by gatling on Nov 11, 2011 10:42 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I have to say
This comparison totally makes me feel like in a year’s time, there’s a good chance we’re going to be saying, “Really, we’re comparing him to HIM?” with incredulity. If Montero continues to hit like he has, he’s an absolute stud and you have to take him. Yet his defense is still an issue and it’s entirely possible that once he settles in, he looks more like a solid-to-above-average hitter low on the defensive spectrum.
Then you’ve got Myers, whose stock seems to have shot up big-time with his sterling AFL campaign. If that’s the kind of player he ends up being and he continues to make progress on defense, he could be tremendous. Still, it’s not hard to see him leveling out a bit, with his true consistent performance level making him a pretty good, but not great corner outfielder. That’s definitely a player you’d like to have, but if Montero is posting MVP caliber seasons at the plate, clearly you’re taking Montero.
I think I have to take Montero in this case. Two strong years of AAA performance added to a great MLB debut cements him into a lineup as a quality contributor. That’s not to say I don’t love Myers, because I do. You just can’t turn down a bat like Montero’s for anything less than a total package, like a Harper or a Trout.
I have Montero at 6, Meyers at 8
I think it just depends on how much you weigh last year for Meyers, and how much of a bounce back you expect vs. positional value of Montero. But Montero was higher ranked last year, arguably had a better year at a higher stop, and showed he can handle ML pitching. I think there are fewer questions around Montero’s ability to succeed in the show at this point than there are for Myers.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 12, 2011 3:04 AM EST up reply actions
How is Montero better than Myers even if he's not a catcher?
Myers being a RF gives him a 10 run advantage over a DH, if he’s a plus RF, that’s even more. I think Myers’ bat is better than Montero because relative to league, Myers’ year last year was better than any of Montero’s years, and using my studies, Myers’ skills (plate discipline, power) translate very well to the majors. People say Montero has an awesome bat, but I don’t see it. For hitting, scouting means nothing. Scouting is important for fielding, and pitching but for me, scouting for hitting means nothing. Batting practice is so easy to think someone is better than he is. Willy Mo Pena had awesome hitting scouting reports but his minor league stats were never that good. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pena—002wil. I know Montero is young for AAA, but these stats don’t indicate he’ll be some awesome bat
Below average K%
Below average K swinging/ K looking, this is actually very important as people who strike out looking a lot isn’t bad but swinging a lot is.
Below average line drive %
Despite his below average line drive % and almost average other batted ball rates, his above average BABIP of .336 seems very lucky.
Below average pitches seen per PA
Below average walk rate.
While his power was sapped due to a freak injury, Myers beat Montero in K%, Kswinging/Klooking, Line drive %, lower BABIP, better pitches seen/PA and better walk rate.
Myers did all of this while having a very painful freak injury. I think Myers’ bat is better than Montero, and his position is 10 runs or more. I think people don’t understand that Montero can’t catch and be a pretty bad catcher, he is an awful catcher, and can’t even have a part time job. He has an awful 20% caught stealing rate.
I think comparing Wily Mo to Jesus from a scouting and performance perspective is pretty faulty. Wily Mo was never seen as the same caliber talent as Jesus. Your use of stats is interesting, and I agree that Myers is a very good prospect (hence #8 on my own list) but he has to prove he can come back from his performance this year before he moves ahead of Jesus for me. But Jesus has had the better track record at higher levels of play, while trying to better himself as a catcher, and that has to put him ahead of Myers for me.
And on the positional adjustment argument, if Montero did play C, he would have a +20 run advantage on Myers in RF. I find it hard to believe he would be more than a -2 win defensive catcher – the worst catchers last year topped out at -5 defensive runs. So if he is twice as bad, that is still -10. Go back two years, and Ryan Doumit had a terrible defensive year, and was -15 defensive runs. Since 2000, the worst season at catcher was Scott Hatteberg in 2001, at -20 defensive runs. So, Montero would have to be historically bad just to wipe out any advantage of playing catcher.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 12, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Well that's just throwing out runners
which Montero is also very bad at. I improved catcher defense by using these stats from these two articles measuring framing and blocking and adding them to catcher DRS. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 , http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/ J.P. Arencibia is at -20 runs, and he is a much better defensive catcher than Montero, besides it dosen’t matter because Montero’s not a catcher clearly.
wow, I don't know what part of this to correct first
Myers did okay last year, but you’re way out in left field if you think his season was comparable to any of Montero’s seasons. Montero was 21 all of this season, he’s only a year older than Myers.
Montero’s bat is excellent, and yes, scouting counts plenty. It’s a big reason why we’re still cool with Wil Myers even after this season. Montero has killed the ball at every stop, including a major league stint. You totally ignored his awesome power, his strong batting average, and his outstanding level of overall performance. Way to bend the numbers around to make absolutely no point at all. If you’re going to completely ignore scouting, at least have the courtesy to address the numbers that actually mean something.
Finally, it’s far too premature to simply call Montero a DH. Not only is he very young, but we haven’t even seen him in the field yet at a different position. He’s certainly going to get chances to show what he can do at other positions, although I’ll agree he’s not somebody I’d want to see behind the plate regularly.
over the top
your criticism of his stats are waaaaay over-exaggerated
first of all, you can like Wil Myers without any of the scouting reasons. his A-ball and A+ profiles were amazing.
second of all, batting average isn’t a great stat in the minors. lots of guys have great batting averages in the minors and end up not being able to hit for average in the majors. if you can find secondary indicators, particularly something like K swinging vs. K looking, that’s great.
you’re also overstating the outstanding level of overall performance. a 120 wRC+ in AAA very good as a 21-year old. however, it’s not like it’s earth-shattering.
i will give you the fact that Montero’s power was ignored.
i think the DH vs. RF argument has to be counted against Montero though. note: plenty of scouts have said Montero can’t play catcher. everything i’ve read would lead me to be very surprised if Montero could hold his own as an everyday catcher in the majors. i’m sure if you had to bet, you’d bet against Montero being a catcher too, correct? if so, then that has to be factored in, even if only from an expected value standpoint (relative probability of Montero ending up as DH or 1B or C).
by blue bulldog on Nov 12, 2011 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
I don't believe he's a catcher, no
He’s looked terrible every time I’ve tuned in, which is admittedly not all that much. Still, I’ve seen nothing to make me think he can stick. The big problem is the inability to throw runners out – I’m honestly surprised he manages to throw out as many as he does. The thing is, all we really know about his defense is that he is very unlikely to handle catching in the majors. Should we really be calling him a DH when there are options (corner outfield, 1B) that haven’t even been explored yet? I don’t think that makes any sense.
Batting average (and BABIP) can clearly be affected by a player’s power, which Montero has a ton of. It’s more than a little disingenuous to say "his BABIP seems very lucky" while completely ignoring his power, which also happens to be the single best tool that Montero has. The thing about LD% is noted . . .but there, you have to consider A) the incredible variability in LD% recording and B) the fact that Montero’s LD% had been above-average compared to MLB norms the previous two seasons AND in his MLB stint.
So no, I don’t think I was being over the top. He was obviously cherry-picking statistics to suit his needs.
As for Myers, he was making a point about his 2011 season, I was responding specifically to that point.
People rave about Montero's power
but He’s never hit 30 homers in a season, his high is 21. HIs high ISO in a season is .227. I think his power is a little better than Myers’ but totally offset by Myers’ LD%, Plate discipline, and position. I guess Montero could try to play 1B, but he would probably have awful range. Freddie Freeman this year, would benefit from being a DH by runs. Freeman will definitely improve, but does anyone think Montero can be a better first baseman than Freddie Freeman this year? As for corner outfield, Left Field looks bad because Montero’s speed score of 1.5 is lower than any major league left fielder this year, the lowest is Michael Morse with 1.8, he played half time 1st base and was still awful enough he would benefit from playing DH. Right Field I definitely don’t think is possible because from scouting his arm is awful. His caught stealing % is awful too but I don’t use that to evaluate players arms because it could be affected by having a quick release or not, but his arm is awful. Montero just seems like someone who has to be a DH to me and his bat seems overhyped to me. That’s why I have him very low.
tough standards
Montero actually hit 22 HR this year (18 in minors, 4 in majors).
Myers hasn’t hit more than 14 HR in a season, so there. I’m trying to find numbers on Myers’ LD% – the only one I can find is at Statcorner, which says his LD% has actually been below-average his first two years (16.9% @ A, 16.1 @ A+, 17.2 @ AA). That’s lower than anything Montero has had.
You still don’t know what Montero can do at 1B – saying “he would probably have awful range” might be true, but it might not be. There are plenty of guys with cement in their shoes who have played a more than serviceable 1B.
Montero has hit extremely well thus far, I really have no clue how you could think otherwise. .870 OPS in AAA at age 20 (read: the same age that Myers was this year). There was some feeling that he wasn’t too thrilled about being in the minors again to start the season and that would seem to be backed up by the numbers (merely okay first half of the season, .900+ OPS second half). And obviously, there was the small major league stint this year, that was great.
I meant Myers' 2010
that season was much better than any of Montero’s years. I wouldn’t exactly call his 2011 AAA season crushing the ball. Montero hasn’t hit that well in AAA in 2010 or 2011. I am still cool with Myers not because of scouting but because he had a couple freak injuries, and he still hit really well in 2010. By the way, I did some studies on what correlates well to the major leagues, so I was using the stats that made major league players successful the most.
Look at it this way ...
If I’m the GM of the Royals, and the Yankees call on Meyers and offer Montrero do I make that deal? I don’t. But then, the Royals window is still a few years out.
But a trade has much more than prospect value tied to it
The Royals may no’t want Montero because they are set at 1B and DH. Although if I were them, I would do the trade and put him at catcher, since they don’t have one.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 12, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
then think about it abstractly
you’re building a team, and you have Myers
are you willing to trade for Montero with Myers?
by blue bulldog on Nov 12, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Abstractly
Yes.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 12, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
Montero has been higher ranked and proven himself at higher levels.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 12, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
sal perez isnt a catcher?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 12, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Ah...forgot about him
My bad. Still not sure what to think with him – seemed to come out of nowhere, but young and had a successful first year.
by cookiedabookie on Nov 12, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
Closing the poll
Will Myers wins 38-36. Thanks for starting this thread gatling.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 13, 2011 10:30 AM EST reply actions
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