Top RP in the minors: Addison Reed or Kelvin Herrera?

by limozeen on Oct 5, 2011 4:18 PM EDT

It seems from the end-of-season regrade thread that Addison Reed will be on many top 100 radars and is the consensus top relief pitching prospect in the minors. I think you can make the argument that Kelvin Herrera is just as good, if not better.

Reed is a great prospect. While he didn't qualify for any of BA's league top 20s, but he would have ranked in the top ten in the Carolina League and would have appeared on the Southern League list had he logged enough innings. Ben Badler said in chat: "Power fastball, regularly in the mid-90s, slider an occasional swing-and-miss pitch but flattens out, throws strikes and does it with a lot of deception that plays well and makes it tough for hitters to pick up the ball off him in a one-inning relief stint."

Herrera may have enough innings to qualify for the Texas League top twenty (which comes out tomorrow) and was mentioned alongside Reed as a potential future closer on BA's league chat. His fastball sits in the mid 90s with significant sink. He averaged 96.2 MPH on his fastball in two Major League IP.

Both of them ascended to AAA this year. Reed started out in the SAL and logged 20-30 innings in A+, AA, and AAA, finishing the year in the International League. Herrera began the year in the Carolina league, worked 36 innings in the Texas League upon promotion to AA, and finished the year in the PCL.

Both had dominant stats:

Reed (age 22): 78.1 IP, 111 K, 14 BB. His rate stats: 1.26 ERA, 12.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 40% GB rate.

Herrera (age 21): 67.2 IP, 70 K, 15 BB. His rate stats: 1.60 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 60% GB rate.

The main differences between the two are:

1. Physicality. Reed is a big dude at 6'4", 215 pounds who looks the part of a late-inning reliever. Herrera is built like a shortstop at an athletic 5'10", 190.

2. Strikeouts. Reed averages three more strikeouts per nine innings, a significant difference.

3. Ground ball rate. Herrera's balls in play are overwhelmingly ground balls, while Reed's balls in play are mostly hit in the air. Even so, Reed had an easier time keeping the ball in the park, giving up only three HR to Herrera's six.

In the end, I see Reed and Herrera as approximate equals. They both have dominant stuff and results. Reed has a more typical physical profile, but Herrera is athletic, if a little short. Reed Ks more, but Herrera gets a lot more movement and sink on his pitches and induces 20% more ground balls. I love Herrera's combo of grounders, strikeouts, and nasty high 90s stuff, so I'll promote him as the #1 relief pitching prospect in the minors.

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fun question

They’re clearly the two best relief prospects. Basically, it comes down to a polish vs. upside deal. Reed has stronger overall command, and he’s a bit safer as a result. I think Herrera’s stuff is better, though, as he can push his fastball up into the triple digits. He has a high effort but athletic delivery which doesn’t lend itself to great command, although it doesn’t prevent him from pounding the strike zone. I think his breaking ball will come along, although I don’t think his feel for it is all that great at this point as I saw a lot of sliders ending up right over the plate. That will certainly play against minor leaguers who are just trying to stay on top of his heat, but he’s going to need to learn how to get it to dive out of the zone.

Both should be very productive relievers, although I’d like Herrera to get a half season of AAA if possible to tighten up his breaking ball. I’d give the edge to Herrera because I think his stuff is slightly more closer worthy.

by mrkupe on Oct 5, 2011 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Arodys Vizcaino

Not 100% he’ll be a RP, but out of guys who I think will end up in relief, he got the highest grade from me so far.

Brad Peacock & Dellin Betances are two other guys along these same lines, though both are also capable of starting – and have a higher chance of starting than Vizcaino + without the accompanying durability questions.

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by alskor on Oct 5, 2011 5:35 PM EDT reply actions

If I have to pick Reed or Herrera

Its Reed, though I agree Herrera deserves some more attention. It comes down to the factors you mentioned above… I would just emphasize the size and strikeouts a little more heavily than you did.

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by alskor on Oct 5, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Why don't you think Peacock starts?

I haven’t heard any reports that the Nats view him as a reliever long term. Any particular reason why you think he goes the pen? Thanks for your input.

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by King Billy Royal on Oct 5, 2011 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I do think he starts...

I think his skills might profile better in relief, but I think he can definitely start and be a mid rotation type with raw stuff that looks even better than that. In relief, he’d be 1 of the top 5-10 relief Aces in the game.

I actually just published a piece on Peacock last week: http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=480:brad-peacock-syracuse-pawtucket-08-23-11&catid=18:articles&Itemid=11

There’s a full video and broken down animated gifs of his mechanics and each of his pitches.

The reasons he might be a RP are largely some reliever style mechanics and the lack of a consistent third quality offering. Neither issue is an extreme case that would necessitate him heading to the pen, though.

www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Oct 6, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions

That's a phenomenal report

Watching him pitch kind of makes me wince, but I gave up counting guys out as starters strictly because of mechanics once Max Scherzer threw back-to-back seasons of 195 innings…

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Was thinking about this

watching Scherzer yesterday. Painful to watch, but he gets great extension out front. They had a couple of slo-mo close-ups and he looked he was literally pushing the ball toward home. Yikes.

by blackoutyears on Oct 11, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

i'd take all of Viz , Betances , and Peacock

over Reed or Herrera

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 6, 2011 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions

well sure...

but only because all of Viz, DB, and Peacock are potential SPs…in a one-inning-only scenario, I’d take Reed above all others.

by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I really liked Vizcaino in relief

If he doesn’t end up starting he’ll be a very good high leverage relief arm.

by blackoutyears on Oct 6, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Top ten relievers in the minors?

Reed, Herrera, Shawn Tolleson, Brad Brach . . .

by gogotabata on Oct 5, 2011 6:01 PM EDT reply actions

I’d take Aumont over any of these guys..

by WrenFGun on Oct 6, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd probably have Aumont second after Reed

Love me some downward plane.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Bradley Boxberger

just like the name

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 6, 2011 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Justin Miller

belongs in the conversation with the next tier.

by realitypolice on Oct 6, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Heath Hembree

I don’t like to rank because I don’t know as much about other teams’ systems as I do my own. But lots of scouting and knowledgeable people (Keith Law, Baseball America Chat, etc) have actually said they like Hembree more than Reed…

by you'vejustbeenCAINED on Oct 5, 2011 7:25 PM EDT reply actions

Yep

I think Hembree has to be on the short list of top minor league relievers. Dude’s firing 98-99 regularly. He did get a specific mention in one of the league top twenty chats as being favored over Reed by that league’s author as you say.

by blackoutyears on Oct 6, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

He didn't make a list, but...

“Jon (SC): RHP Heath Hembree was not in either top 20’s for the Cal League or Eastern League despite leading the minors in saves. Where does he stand in terms of prospects?

John Manuel: He was pretty close to making both lists, and he still throws straight butane at 98-99 at times. It’s easy and he’s got a little extra life. But he doesn’t really have a second reliable pitch yet; his breaking ball comes and goes. Give Dick Tidrow a little more time with him, and you might have a less-bearded replacement for Brian Wilson soon. Hembree’s one of the minors’ best relief prospects; I’d probably take him over Addison Reed myself."

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2011 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions