Top 50 Pitching Prospects for 2011: How They Performed
by John Sickels on Oct 5, 2011 12:05 PM EDT
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Here is a review of my PRE-SEASON Top 50 Pitching Prospects list for 2011. THIS IS THE PRE-SEASON LIST. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.
As we discussed last week with the review of the 2007 list, it takes at least four or five years before we can tell how a list truly panned out. However, I always review the previous year's list in each book, and it is the best way to start off the process for 2012. REMINDER: We are now taking pre-orders for the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book!
Top 50 Pitching Prospects for 2011
1) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade A: Went 13-10, 2.95 ERA, 117/72 K/BB in 189 major league innings. Obviously very successful, although his FIP was weaker than his ERA. I think he'll improve.
2) Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade A: 3.60 ERA, 71/41 K/BB in 50 major league innings, just 24 hits. Wobbly command and health issues kept him from reaching his full potential, but upside remains huge.
3) Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade A: Went 15-3, 2.55 ERA, 122/48 K/BB in 145 innings in Triple-A at age 20. Posted 5.03 ERA in 20 major league innings, 10/8 K/BB. Remains an excellent prospect.
4) Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade A: Went 12-3, 1.92 ERA, 210/46 K/BB in 155 innings between in Double-A/Triple-A, just 101 hits allowed. Looked excellent in brief major league and post-season action. Now the best pitching prospect in baseball.
5) Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade A: Went 9-10, 3.74 ERA with 173/55 K/BB in 171 major league innings, 133 hits. Very successful debut, can't complain here.
6) Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox, Grade A: 2.79 ERA with 79/27 K/BB in 71 major league innings, just 52 hits, eight saves. Another successful debut, and I think he will do well as a starter.
7) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade A-: Command collapsed. Posted 6.06 ERA with 51/55 K/BB in 79 major league innings, 7.44 ERA with 45/41 K/BB in 75 Triple-A innings. I noted last year that his component ratios weren't terrific and that there was some danger in rushing him, but this was still a surprisingly bad performance.
8) Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade A-: Excellent year, went 11-6, 2.77 ERA with 170/53 K/BB in 140 innings between High-A and Double-A, just 112 hits. Remains an elite prospect.
9) Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade A-: Posted 3.44 ERA with 110/35 K/BB in 131 innings in Double-A/Triple-A. Gave up 13 runs in 13 major league innings, but remains an elite prospect.
10) Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade A-: Went 11-11, 4.61 in 154 major league innings, 97/62 K/BB, 162 hits, 1.67 GO/AO. Should improve as long as he stays healthy.
11) Jake McGee, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B+: 2.70 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 33 Triple-A innings, nine saves. Had some command issues in the majors, posted 4.50 ERA with 27/12 K/BB in 28 innings. Upside remains quite high.
12) Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: 3.43 ERA with 48/10 K/BB in 42 Triple-A innings, went 4-8, 5.64 with 87/51 K/BB in 105 major league innings. He was rushed and it showed, but potential remains quite high.
13) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: 3.98 ERA, 97/22 K/BB in 93 innings in Low-A, 89 hits. Scouting reports remain very positive, numbers were solid with a limited workload.
14) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: Erratic season, went 5-11, 5.32 in Triple-A with 129/69 K/BB in 151 innings, 157 hits. Problems with command and consistency of secondary pitches the issue here, but still just 22 years old.
15) Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: 3.13 ERA with 99/27 K/BB in 101 Triple-A innings, 5-3, 4.14 with 77/30 K/BB in 83 major league innings. Already a solid big league pitcher and I expect further improvement.
16) Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees, Grade B+: 3.70 ERA with 142/70 K/BB in 126 innings in Double-A/Triple-A, 102 hits. Walked six in 2.2 major league innings. Has the necessary stuff, but control remains an issue.
17) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+: 3.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB in 62 Triple-A innings. Went 2-8, 5.36 in 94 major league innings with 67/26 K/BB and 107 hits allowed. Remains on the Brad Radke career track.
18) Kyle Gibson, RHP ,Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Posted 4.81 ERA with 92/27 K/BB in 95 Triple-A innings, 109 hits, 1.94 GO/AO. Got off to a good start, slumped at mid-season, ended up with Tommy John surgery and will miss 2012.
19) John Lamb, LHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: 3.09 ERA with 22/13 K/BB in 35 Double-A innings, season ended in June with Tommy John. Will miss much of 2012.
20) Trey McNutt, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: 4.55 ERA with 65/39 K/BB in 95 Double-A innings, 120 hits. Hampered by blisters and rib injury, was not 100% for most of the season.
21) Brody Colvin, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B+: 4.71 ERA with 78/42 K/BB in 117 innings in High-A, 131 hits. Hampered by back and groin injuries much of the year. Just 21 years old, potential remains high.
22) Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B+: Posted 4.09 ERA with 130/86 K/BB in 147 innings in Double-A/Triple-A. Command troubles early but pitched better late in the season, still has high upside.
23) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: Excellent in High-A (2.87 ERA, 103/22 K/BB in 78 innings) but ran into some problems with homers in Double-A (4.72 ERA, 54/22 K/BB, 13 homers in 69 innings). Very efficient pitcher but strong fly ball tendency hurt him in Texas League.
24) Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Dismal in High-A (9.82 ERA, 37/46 K/BB in 33 innings), recovered somewhat after going down to Low-A (4.36 ERA, 74/50 K/BB in 64 innings). Command issues obvious but he pitched the year at age 20 and has time to recover if he's healthy.
25) Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+: 1.80 ERA with 38/6 K/BB in 40 innings in Double-A/Triple-A. Went 3-4, 7.01 in 10 major league starts, 37/25 K/BB and 15 homers in 51 innings between Indians and Rockies following Ubaldo Jimenez trade. Lost time to finger injury. He's better than he looked in the majors.
26) Randall Delgado, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: 3.88 ERA with 135/57 K/BB in 139 innings in Double-A/Triple-A. Posted 2.83 ERA in seven major league starts, 18/14 K/BB in 35 innings. Will need to make a few adjustments but overall a fine season.
27) Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers, Grade B+: 3.16 ERA, 83/36 K/BB in 88 innings, 80 hits allowed in Double-A. 6.43 ERA, 37/20 K/BB in 49 innings in Triple-A with 72 hits allowed. He's been pushed very quickly and it shows.
28) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: 2.10 ERA with 127/32 K/BB in 77 major league innings, 46 saves. Spectacular rookie season.
29) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: Opened year in major league pen but ended back up in the minors. 5.50 ERA with 44/40 K/BB in 56 innings in Double-A/Triple-A, 4.70 ERA with 13/11 K/BB in 15 major league innings. Still has great stuff, still has control problems.
30) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+: Sent to Colorado in Ubaldo Jimenez trade. Posted 1.78 ERA with 119/38 K/BB in 101 innings, 68 hits between High-A and Double-A. 5.40 ERA with 13/5 K/BB in 18 major league innings. Remains a top prospect.
31) Deck McGuire, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: 3.02 ERA with 124/45 K/BB in 125 innings between High-A and Double-A. Effective strike-thrower, still a strong prospect.
32) Alex Wimmers, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Had to rebuild mechanics and confidence after disastrous start in April. Finished with 4.20 ERA and 39/22 K/BB in 41 innings in High-A, 28 hits. Wild card for 2012.
33) Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: 4.20 ERA with 79/27 K/BB in 101 innings in Double-A/Triple-A. Traded to White Sox, went 2-6, 5.88 with 45/18 K/BB in 67 major league innings, 90 hits. Capable of better, but not going to be an ace or rotation anchor.
34) Manny Banuelos, LHP, New York Yankees, Grade B: 3.75 ERA with 125/71 K/BB in 130 innings in Double-A/Triple-A. Had some command problems, but was just 20 years old and in the high minors. Still a fine prospect.
35) Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres, Grade B: Got killed in Triple-A (10.17 ERA, 21/18 K/BB, 37 hits in 26 innings). Sent back to Double-A and was OK (4.33 ERA, 73/16 K/BB in 89 innings, 95 hits). Stock down, but still a prospect.
36) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Los Angeles Angels, Grade B: Rushed to majors, went 6-11, 4.75 ERA with 74/71 K/BB in 142 innings, 166 hits. He kept his job but the component ratios were terrible, granted he was just 21 years old. Capable of better if he stays healthy.
37) Kenley Jansen, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B: 2.85 ERA with 96/26 K/BB in 54 innings in the majors, just 30 hits, five saves. Looks like he will be a great closer to me.
38) Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels, Grade B: 2.98 ERA, 67/26 K/BB in 60 major league innings, 49 hits, 32 saves. Can't complain about this, a very strong season.
39) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets, Grade B: Hurt his elbow early and had Tommy John surgery.
40) Casey Kelly, RHP, San Diego Padres, Grade B: Went 11-6, 3.98 ERA in Double-A with 105/46 K/BB in 142 innings, 153 hits, 1.66 GO/AO. Developing into an inning-eater type rather than an ace, but that's OK.
41) Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B: Went 11-8, 3.79 with 112/55 K/BB in 131 innings in Double-A, 112 hits. Recovery from Tommy John is complete, should be ready for the majors in 2012.
42) Jarrod Cosart, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B: Posted 3.92 ERA with 79/43 K/BB in 108 innings in High-A, then 4.71 ERA with 22/13 K/BB in 36 innings in Double-A after trade to Astros. Scouting reports remain positive, but still a year away.
43) Stetson Allie, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B: Serious command problems in the New York-Penn League resulted in 6.58 ERA, 28/29 K/BB in 26 innings. Has the stuff, but a thrower at this point, not a pitcher.
44) Chris Dwyer, LHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B: 5.60 ERA with 126/78 K/BB in 141 innings in Double-A, 124 hits. Another guy with command issues, still has upside.
45) Zach Lee, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B: 3.47 ERA, 91/32 K/BB in 109 innings in Low-A, 101 hits. Scouting reports positive, numbers decent, a solid debut.
46) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Boston Red Sox, Grade B: 3.33 ERA with 50/16 K/BB in 46 innings in Low-A, 4.33 ERA with 67/30 K/BB in 81 innings in High-A. Not a terrible year, but didn't live up to expectations overall. Stock down somewhat.
47) Alex Colome, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B: Went 12-9, 3.82 with 123/72 K/BB in 158 innings between High-A and Double-A, 119 hits. Good stuff, but another guy working on his command issues. I trust the Rays more than most teams to help him develop.
48) Andy Oliver, LHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade B: Went 8-12, 4.71 ERA with 143/80 K/BB in 147 innings in Triple-A, 149 hits. Familiar story at this point on the list...has the stuff, but will he throw strikes?
49) Garrett Richards, RHP, Los Angeles Angels, Grade B: Went 12-3, 3.15 ERA with 103/40 K/BB in 143 innings in Double-A. Posted 5.79 ERA with 9/7 K/BB in 14 major league innings, 16 hits. Solid transition to upper minors, although groin injury limited his big league exposure.
50) Robbie Erlin, LHP, Texas Rangers, Grade B: Posted 2.99 ERA with amazing 154/16 K/BB in 147 innings between High-A and Double-A, was particularly excellent in Texas League after trade to the Padres. This seems like a good park environment for him.
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Lack of Red Sox on this list is discouraging for their pitching future.
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I find the last 2 drafts rather encouraging. Ranuado may be the only one on the list.
But we’ve certainly got some talented rotations in the low levels right now. A lot of high bonuses were given to pitchers lately.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
The way Britton and Pimentel collapsed concerns me a lot.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Oct 5, 2011 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I had never been particularly high on either of them.
People kept saying ‘hey look at these guys’, I think they got over hyped. Pimental was great in the GCL, and then pretty ‘eh’ once he hit A ball, getting progressively worse. The collapse was actually pretty reasonable to see I think, his k/bb ratio and ERA had declined every year since 08.
Britton only pitched 40 innings for us before last year. After the TJ surgery he was a 21 year old in the SAL, a little old. Healthy sure, but it was never really known if he actually had any talent, the $700,000 signing bonus is what likely kept him in our sights.
The collapse of those two is really nothing out of the ordinary. Barnes, Owens, Ramirez, Kukuk, Ranuado, Workman, Hernandez, Couch, even if a lot fail, we’re bound to get a lot out of that group.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
No Nationals on the list at all
It will be interesting to see whether there are any going into 2012, and if so, how many. I can think of several (Peacock, Cole, Purke, etc) that may be knocking on the door.
Taijuan Walker wasn't on list entering year?
Guess that means he obviously makes the biggest jump.
Where is he on this list now? Top 10? Top 5?
grades
Pre-season, I had Walker at “Grade B- with high ceiling” since he had barely any pro expeirence and scouting reports were still emphasizing his rawness. He would be in the top 10 now.
Wheeler was a strong Grade B and I had him in the 50-55 range.
Skaggs was a strong Grade B and I had him in the 50-55 range.
Vizcaino
I also forgot how much Vizcaino’s stock dropped after his injuries last year. Was shocked he wasn’t in the top 50 … but, I guess a partially torn elbow ligament will do that.
Carlos Martinez probably makes a similar jump as well, from an interesting B- upside guy to one of the ten or fifteen premium arms in the game.
Curious where Addison Reed will fall...
with John re-evaluating how he grades relievers.
good questoin
Good question. I love Reed, loved him in college when he started last year. He’s at least a B+ and I might go A- on him even as a reliever…that is part of the whole “reevaluate how I grade relievers” process since he is an extreme example.
Paxton too
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Oct 6, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
interesting to see how this all played out. At first glance it seems like a lot of the top pitching prospects are closer to becoming fulltime major leaguers before a lot of the top position prospects. So maybe the last couple years of pitching dominance will be extended for a few more years.
Giving St. Louis the bird since 1982
I know it is way too early to think about it but I wonder how next seasons rookie class will compare historically
Harper, Trout, Moore, Teheran, and Montero I could see any or all of them being all-stars next year.
12 out of 50 graduated
Not bad, 1 out of 4, nearly. By my estimation, another 6-8 will drop off the list due to various issues (mostly ineffectiveness, maybe injury if chronic) leaving about 20 spots open for the 2012 list.
Didn't expect to see Familia on this one
But the lack of Harvey and Wheeler is a little surprising, especially considering some of the guys you ranked ahead of them.
harvey
Harvey was a strong Grade B…. no pro experience.
This is why you guys need to buy the book to see how a guy really stacks up.
Well, if this was an actual re-ranking...
They would stack up rather differently.
Keyvius Sampson
should make this list next year, I presume?
He was healthy and effective (and then some) all year.
Sonny Gray?
Do you think he makes the cut next year?
ideas for grading relievers
Something that I’ve taken to when evaluating relievers in the overall context of pitching prospects, a simple rule. I initially grade the player simply with respect to their talent and their potential to serve in an impact role in the majors, basically identical to how starting pitchers get assessed. Using this process, for example, Craig Kimbrel clearly would have been a Grade A prospect coming into this year . . .unbelievably nasty stuff, rolled through the minors, excelled in his initial major league stint. Then, I just subtract two grades – which would have made Kimbrel a Grade B+ prospect. Simple, but I haven’t found a situation yet where this technique ended up with a player being placed in the same range as players with whom he clearly didn’t belong.
I’m curious to hear how others end up approaching the reliever grading dilemma. Clearly an elite reliever is extremely valuable – we have sabermetric evidence to this end, we have teams who are willing to pay big bucks for the best of the best, and 80 awesome innings a year is 80 awesome innings a year, any way you slice it. Even excellent set-up men (the type who could close but circumstances prevent them from doing so) deserve a lot of credit. I’m pretty harsh on players who I see as middle relief types, but I hate taking a stance that in any way doesn’t respect premium talent.
John,
The problem you’re having is how to evaluate apples and oranges on the same scale… a problem you’ve already resolved once by separating hitters and pitchers into separate rankings. It might be worth considering a Top 50 starters and a Top 10 minor league relievers. I know you get into the issue of how many big league relievers came through minors as starters, but it might be worth considering, especially as the number of “bred” closers increases year to year.
by realitypolice on Oct 6, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, reply fail
I saw his note above, read yours down here, and then lost the ability to use the InterWebs.
by realitypolice on Oct 7, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Stuff v. results
Any thoughts on how you might deal with pitchers like Drew Hutchison & Nestor Molina, who have so-so stuff, but nevertheless are showing good K rates and outstanding results?
stuff vs results
Well, I look at both of these things. I think both of them are Grade B prospects at least which would put them as candidates in the 25-50 range.
Was Kenley Jansen eligible for ROY?
If it wasn’t for Kimbrel, I’d think he would get a few votes for his MLB record K rate(16.10 K/9) during the late innings of games
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Oct 5, 2011 6:09 PM EDT reply actions
Hey John,
thanks for doing these lists and then provided post-season thoughts, they’re great. Do you have any further insights on Matzek at all once he returned to low A after leaving the team to regain his mechanics with his HS pitching coach?
His walk rate trimmed down considerably after that (though it was still a bit high), and I think, but am not sure his velocity crept up a bit…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
matzek
Yeah when I start looking at the Rockies I am going to have to do some digging about Matzek. There were some conflicting reports about that one.
Thanks!
the dude has definitely been enigmatic.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Matzek
John will flesh this out better but Matzek’s final six starts were extremely encouraging – a 2.25 ERA. His walks, way down except for one game and his strikeouts were strong. The visit to an old coach helped tremendously, as did the drop from High-A to Low-A. Matzek remains an exciting prospect because of his stuff and ability to flash it enough but 96 walks in 97 innings in 2011 is still a concern. One voice here but I believe one should hold on tight to optimism but be very guarded about letting those hopes run away and become deception. Cautious with expectations.
Colorado Rockies Prospects Report
matzek
He is way too young to give up on. 2011 was equvalent to his sophomore year if he had gone to college.
Which prospects disappointed you the most?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Colvin had an all around bad year as well, not as bad as Drabeks though.
by philiafan14364 on Oct 5, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Christian Friedrich
didn’t perform up to expectations, either.
It's a bummer
the Rockies went from having one of the more enviable collections of lefty pitchers in the minors (Friedrich, Brothers, Matzek) to kind of ‘meh’ in like one season…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I wonder what happened to Drabek… it was like he completely forgot how to throw strikes (to say nothing of quality strikes) with his fastball.
He was always overrated
7.2 K/9 in minors with so-so control is supposed to be an elite pitching prospect? Give me a break.
by Philip Larkin on Oct 9, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The cognitive dissonance
of Philip Larkin weighing in on Kyle Drabek’s evaluation is making my head spin. OTOH, the dyspeptic tone seems right, even if it is hard to imagine Larkin saying, “Give me a break.” lol
by blackoutyears on Oct 9, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Larkin was a huge cricket fan
Probably would have liked baseball too. I agree he would never use Americanisms, though. But I can’t be in character all the time, heh.
by Philip Larkin on Oct 9, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
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