Eastern League Top 20--Guess who is #1??

by Savoy on Oct 4, 2011 11:32 AM EDT

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612441.html

EASTERN LEAGUE TOP 20 PROSPECTS

1. Bryce Harper, of, Harrisburg Senators (Nationals)
2. Travis D'Arnaud, c, New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays)
3. Anthony Gose, of, New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays)
4. Brad Peacock, rhp, Harrisburg Senators (Nationals)
5. Jacob Turner, rhp, Erie Seawolves (Tigers)
6. Manny Banuelos, lhp, Trenton Thunder (Yankees)
7. Starling Marte, of, Altoona Curve (Pirates)
8. Will Middlebrooks, 3b, Portland Seadogs (Red Sox)
9. Dellin Betances, rhp, Trenton Thunder (Yankees)
10. Henderson Alvarez, rhp, New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays)
11. Eric Surkamp, lhp, Richmond Flying Squirrels (Giants)
12. Derek Norris, c, Harrisburg Senators (Nationals)
13. Jeurys Familia, rhp, Binghamton Mets
14. Francisco Peguero, of, Richmond Flying Squirrels (Giants)
15. Ryan Lavarnway, c, Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox)
16. Francisco Martinez, 3b, Erie Seawolves (Tigers)
17. Austin Romine, c, Trenton Thunder (Yankees)
18. Chih-Hsien Chiang, of, Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox)
19. Adeiny Hechavarria, ss, New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays)
20. Kyle McPherson, rhp, Altoona Curve (Pirates)

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Comments

Wow, pretty surprised to see Gose all the way at #3.

by Sniderlover on Oct 4, 2011 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

Yep

The tools are great, but having him 4 spots above Marte is surprising to me. I’m not saying it’s wrong, but I’ve viewed them as fairly similar, and that’s a nice gap. Gose is a stud though.

BTW: Homerism alert (my homerism)

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 4, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

the differences are notable, though

Gose draws a pretty good number of walks, Marte draws exceptionally few walks. Gose’s extra power is a bit of a separator, too.

I guess I would put it like this . . .if you have two players who are pretty similar, but one looks like he could be a pretty good No. 1 hitter, and one looks like he could be a pretty good No. 2 or No. 6 hitter, which one are you taking?

by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

You

mean that extra power where Marte had a better ISO this year in a more friendly pitching park (very slightly so). I’d agree that Gose has slightly better power, but I think it’s negligible.

Plus, you only mentioned areas of skill that favor Gose. While plate discipline is an important skill for any player, especially the more advanced pitching a player faces, contact ability shouldn’t be dismissed either in my opinion. Gose has never hit for an average higher than 263, and that’s with a high BABIP. On the other hand, Marte has never hit lower than .312.

That’s a fairly large gap. I understand wOBA is better to explain results than predict the future, but it’s a stat that’s supposed to accurately balance/weigh average, obp, and slg, which is useful here. Marte has done better in that category all the way up the ladder, and again, Marte’s lowest wOBA in a season is higher than Gose’s, even with the BB difference. Plus, K% is another side to plate discipline, and Gose has struck out at a higher clip for his career, and this past year the difference was 8.7%.

Gose gets a nod for his ability to steal bases, but Marte is plenty fast. I’d argue they have similar defensive value, and can’t really give the nod to either.

I guess there is something to be said for Gose being a great #1 hitter, but that’s not important enough for me to seperate Gose from Marte and Marte from Gose.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 4, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I wasn't trying to compare the two

I was simply trying to illustrate reasons why somebody might be inclined to take Gose.

by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah

yes.. Well they are dumb. And I’m right. The end.

yes.. Well they are dumb. And I’m right. The end.Seriously though, both are your prototypical uber-athletic CF who will run on the basepaths. To me, that’s the most exciting type of player in baseball. I’m just glad the Pirates have one of them (in the minors; then there’s Cutch in the majors)

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 4, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Gose is almost 2 yrs younger than Marte

Would reflect in the rankings also

by JayTeam on Oct 4, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah

good point. I somehow missed that. Thank you.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 4, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

not too many surprises on this list

The one that really jumped out at me was Eric Surkamp at 11.

by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2011 12:20 PM EDT reply actions

Pretty strong Top 10 as far as overall upside goes

I like the aggressive placement of Brad Peacock. Also, I have a hard time believing that Ryan Lavarnway won’t eventually be better than the 15th best guy here.

I’m far from Joe Benson’s biggest cheerleader, but I’m surprised to say the least that names such as Adeiny Hechavarria, Kyle McPherson & Austin Romine would slot higher than he.

Not sure about any other snubs per se, but guys like Freddy Galvis (why was Jose Iglesias so lauded again?), LJ Hoes & Casey Crosby stick out as players that wouldn’t have seemed out of place to me on the back end of this grouping.

by Matt0330 on Oct 4, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

hoes

The big question for me is whether or not Baltimore considers him a middle infielder. I like his pure hitting ability, but he looks awfully fringy if they’re going to try to stick him in a corner OF slot.

by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree

Yeah, and the vast majority of his defensive time this year was spent in the OF (LF to be more specific). He’d be a much more compelling prospect as a 2b as he’d be far from an ideal everyday LF/RF option considering his skillset.

by Matt0330 on Oct 4, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice to see d’Arnaud and Gose at 2/3, as well as Alvarez and Hech making the top 20.

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

By the way, what are the chances of Toronto topping the list of number of players to make the league top 20s?

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

Tampa had a good head start with 7 in one league, I believe.

by ayjackson on Oct 4, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously?

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Through today's post

Blue Jays – 15 (high mark: 4, in Eastern League)
Rays – 12 (high mark: 7, in Appy league)

by dbreer23 on Oct 4, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Are you just listing these two teams or are they 1-2 in all of MLB?

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I just dug for those two teams...

At first (albeit quick) glance, it looks like the Padres would be right behind the Blue Jays, with 13.

by dbreer23 on Oct 4, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Worth noting

That both Tampa and Toronto field an extra low minors team.

I think the Astros, Cardinals, DBacks, Mariners, Mets and Royals are the other clubs that have three short-season teams.

by realitypolice on Oct 4, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Vancouver and Bluefield? Where’s the third?

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

GCL Jays

by TtD on Oct 4, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Doesn’t every team have a GCL team?

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

*pretty much every team

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Most have a Rookie ball team (GCL)

The Jays have that, the general rookie + league in Bluefield, and the more senior college draftee dominated A- Vancouver. Most only have a rookie, and either an Rk+ or A- team.

by TtD on Oct 4, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

To put that in perspective

Teams that draft a lot of college players will tend to have an A- team, those that draft a lot of high schoolers tend to pick up an Rk+ team. Given the Jays draft a lot of everything, they have both, having picked up the Bluefield team the Orioles let go (because they weren’t drafting a lot of high end highschoolers).

by TtD on Oct 4, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the heads up; not really well-informed about this.

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions

we all learn as we go...

and TtD brings up a good point that I neglected – sometimes the raw numbers don’t tell the real story.

by dbreer23 on Oct 4, 2011 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Well technically...

I brought it up.

And of course, there’s a difference between the Dodgers having five guys in the back end of the list for the 10-team Southern League and the Blue Jays putting four guys in the top 12 of the 12-team Eastern League…

by realitypolice on Oct 5, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

And the Rays’ 7 in the Appy is impressive

by zliang10 on Oct 4, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Norris at No. 12. I think that’s at least six spots too high.

by bolton on Oct 4, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

yeah I think Peguero

may be equally aggressive.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 4, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Matt Harvey qualified but didn’t make the top twenty. That’s a shocker.

by limozeen on Oct 4, 2011 3:30 PM EDT reply actions

Has to be an oversight, right?

by Matt0330 on Oct 4, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

21-25 range, per John Manuel

“John Manuel: Harvey did pitch enough to qualify, and he’s in that 21-25 group. The guys I talked to who saw him in the EL thought his stuff was inconsistent and his inexperience showed a bit in terms of setting up hitters and pitch sequence, but he didn’t miss by much. On a top 100, I’d imagine he’d go ahead of Kyle McPherson, for example….But Harvey’s upside remains very high.”

by dbreer23 on Oct 4, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose...

If I’m going to keep posting small chunks of the chats, I should at least credit the website as well as the person chatting:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/?1317740146

(yes, it is a pay site)

by dbreer23 on Oct 4, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

that's still pretty damning

I’d like to hear more about how his stuff actually looked there. Dinging a guy on the list is one thing, but completely leaving him off leaves an awful lot of smoke hanging in the air.

by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I talked to a guy whom goes to every Bmets home game

thought Familia had a much higher ceiling than Harvey, thought Harvey was a 3 at best. Harvey also told him in person he shelved his changeup for a 2 seamer. He like turner the best in the league.

by Bravesin07 on Oct 4, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Still going with 'oversight'

I’m not as big on Matt Harvey as a lot of folks (I prefer Brad Peacock, Trevor May & Jarred Cosart to name but a couple pitching prospects with some sort of NL East ties many would prefer Harvey too) but I just can’t see at least a third of this list having a case over him if eventual upside & natural talent weighs in even an iota.

by Matt0330 on Oct 4, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

When Manuel says he left him off (as opposed to forgetting him)...

I wouldn’t say that is oversight…that is willful, and seems to be highly based on scouting reports from the league.

by dbreer23 on Oct 5, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Sure

& I realize that these league lists are largely (if not entirely) independent of each other but that’s quite a difference in perception between contributors who follow the FSL & those in the Eastern League.

It’s not as if Harvey is a Drew Hutchison/Surkamp type in that he’s elevated his profile whilst climbing the ‘ladder’ either & has little room for error in the eyes of some. Would it be too presumptive to opine that Harvey (a former #7 overall choice) must have looked something close to ‘awful’ to be excluded altogether? The stats don’t bear it out for one thing & he placed well on the Florida State list so while ‘oversight’ might be strong & unintentionally accusatory, I’m a bit confused.

by Matt0330 on Oct 5, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

"that’s quite a difference in perception between contributors who follow the FSL & those in the Eastern League"

That was exactly my thought last night as I was reading both leagues’ reports. Performance-wise, I don’t see tremendous differences between St. Lucie Matt Harvey and Bimnghamton Matt Harvey, which implies a significant divergence among evaluators/managers in each league. It doesn’t help that Manuel also refers to Harvey’s very high ceiling.

He referred to specifically to Familia and McPherson when speaking to Harvey’s exclusion, which also doesn’t make sense to me. It’s not like only two of the three could be chosen. There are plenty of position players in the second ten that could have been bumped. But then, wouldn’t you take Lavarnway over many of the 14 players ahead of him? There seems to be a lot of deference to positional value over offensive potential here.

by blackoutyears on Oct 5, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe the biggest

surprise for me. Talk about performance being trumped by scouting reports. He had a very solid EL campaign across the board, with FIP hinting at some ERA bad luck. Anti-Mets bias! Scouts are idiots! lol

by blackoutyears on Oct 4, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

And here I thought Casey Crosby was the most peculiar omission

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by Jeff Reese on Oct 4, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Surkamp being where he is is ludicrous

And I think Peacock is a bit too high as well, but that’s less of an issue to me b/c he at least has some legit fastball velo.

I’d have Surkamp below Chiang at the very least (maybe lower), and probably would prefer to have Harvey above him as well. Just don’t see how a guy with that crappy of a fastball is going to be able to set up his off-speed stuff at the big-league level well enough to project as more than a back-end starter. Sure, he could become Shaun Marcum, but that’s not something I’m going to bet on every command-and-control high-80’s command and control arm to do. Stuff just isn’t there to suggest to me that he’s anything more than a #5.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 5, 2011 1:49 AM EDT reply actions