BA FSL Top 20
by mrkupe on Oct 3, 2011 11:20 AM EDT
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Print1. Shelby Miller, rhp, Palm Beach Cardinals
2. Matt Harvey, rhp, St. Lucie Mets
3. Hak-Ju Lee, ss, Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays)
4. Trevor May, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
5. Alex Colome, rhp, Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays)
6. Carlos Martinez, rhp, Palm Beach Cardinals
7. Jonathan Singleton, 1b/of, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
8. Matt Szczur, of, Daytona Cubs
9. Jarred Cosart, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
10. A.J. Jimenez, c, Dunedin Blue Jays
11. Zack Cox, 3b, Palm Beach Cardinals
12. Sebastian Valle c, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
13. Drew Hutchison, rhp, Dunedin Blue Jays
14. Tyler Thornburg, rhp, Brevard County Manatees (Brewers)
15. Oswaldo Arcia, of, Fort Myers Miracle (Twins)
16. Drew Smyly, lhp, Lakeland Flying Tigers (Tigers)
17. Deck McGuire, rhp, Dunedin Blue Jays
18. Aaron Hicks, of, Fort Myers Miracle (Twins)
19. Brody Colvin, rhp, Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)
20. Wilmer Flores, ss, St. Lucie Mets
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612437.html
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Hutchison?
Just curious how he is 13th in FSL and 14th MWL when MWL is A and FSL is A+
by Matthew Mueller on Oct 3, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions
I stand corrected..
Foot in mouth..
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 3, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions
Jimenez
Glad to see the aggressive ranking (thought Valle was the BA darling, and would’ve finished ahead of AJJ).
Szczur
I’m very surprised that, of all the D-Cubs, Szczur was the one to make it, and to make it that high. Talent wise, he was obviously the most talented D-Cub, but I had been under the impression that these lists weighed a player’s success in the league, and Szczur certainly had his struggles.
I'm not all that surprised, honestly
The team played well, but I’ve been over the Daytona roster, and I struggle to find anybody on that team who I would even consider taking over 17-20 on the list. The best prospect on that team other than Szczur was Nick Struck, and if you’re of the opinion that he’s just a back of rotation starter/pen guy, then he misses.
Normally I see a lot of guys in play for the end of a list, but I don’t think Daytona holds much of a claim to those last few spots.
At this point in time
I’d easily put Rhee over Struck, and as you know from that midseason discussion, I like Struck. But 1 plus pitch, plus velo on the fastball, and a decent breaking ball gets my nod over Struck. As to how I have my cubs list right now, I have Ha and Antigua over Struck.
Being ahead of Nick Struck obviously has no relevancy to this list, but I figured I’d respond on the idea that Struck was the 2nd best prospect that logged enough time in Daytona this year (Whitenack, had he been healthy and logged enough innings in Daytona, would’ve easily been ahead of Struck as well).
I am, though, not the biggest fan of Wilmer Flores and Brody Colvin at the end of the list. Flores for obvious reasons, but I saw Colvin, and like Cosart, I thought both were grossly overhyped. As a side note, I actually think BA did good with the ordering of the arms from Clearwater this year – I preferred May, even with the concerns.
that's your opinion
I don’t think any of those guys are decidedly better prospects than Struck, though. One is almost certainly a reliever, one was essentially a swingman in this league, and Ha looks like a 4th OF type.
Results matter, but they don’t matter nearly as much as the player’s physical potential, I think that much is made clear. Scouts LOVE Szczur, even if he’s relatively unpolished compared to most players his age. He was clearly the best prospect on that team.
who is almost certainly a reliever and why
What’s the case that Rhee is almost certainly a reliever? It has to be Rhee you are referencing there, and that’s a very definitive statement, so I’m curious why. Yes, the breaking ball needs improvement, but FSL followers had the change/split is back to a plus pitch, and the fastball velo was sitting in the 92-94 range for most of the year as a starter. The biggest thing is, he was consistently working 6 innings late in the year.
Rhee’s durability was always my number 1 concern with him.
There’s a lot of wait and see with Antigua, so I have no qualms there about having reservations. The Cubs got down on him because his ERA got bombed in Peoria, and demoted him to XST for work. When he came up to Daytona, they didn’t have an initial rotation spot for him (furthermore, it was already a lefty heavy rotation at the time). He was moved fully into the rotation late in the year (outside of one start, off the top, where Angel Guzman was rehabbing, but I may have to doublecheck the game on that). FSL followers had the slider and changeup looking better than I recall from his Peoria days last year, but still, at best, only a tick above average. That said, not enough of a body of work as a starter this past year to really gauge how things would’ve gone.
As for Ha, I’m not big on him. My gut feeling entering the year was a Brandon Guyer type of athletic OF that doesn’t really have enough ability to start in a corner. But 20 year old, toolsy OF with plus defense in CF, strong arm, and some power potential. It’s tough for me to rank Struck over that. I have them both as roughly C+ types, but Ha’s CF defense (and the plus defense was said by a ton of people, and I think, some stuff online as well (BA?)).
The only person I have decidedly ahead of Struck, though, is Rhee, and you seem quite definitive that he’s a pen arm, so I’m curious what is the argument for such a definitive statement.
rhee
Former TJ guy, two good pitches, additional pitches = ?, performance has never matched the stuff (despite repeating an A ball league this year). The door isn’t totally closed, which is why I said “almost certainly”, but if he makes it at all I will be very, very surprised if it’s as a starting pitcher. He seems like the type who might take a step forward and start pitching to his raw talent if he’s moved.
he uses a slider
It’s inconsistent. I don’t really have any other way to put it. I haven’t heard anyone say that it flashed plus potential, so I’m not expecting any sort of big jump in AA next year. Have heard some folks say it flashes some above average potential, but at times, the slider was inconsistent. Supposedly, it tightened up late in the year.
This is the 2nd time I’ve heard the refrain that he was repeating a level this year as a reason to loosely doubt him (John the other day). While I have no overall issue with that, as to each their own, I think it does need to be pointed out that
a) Last year, he wasn’t 100% and it was his first year back from TJ. Furthermore, he wasn’t allowed to throw his change/split at all (the good one, he utilized, I think, a straight change last year? Have to check, don’t recall of the top). At first, some of us thought he didn’t have it anymore, but reports came out late in the year that the Cubs weren’t allowing him to throw the good change/split.
b) Rhee pitched all of 40 innings in A ball. It’s not as if he mastered that level before being moved up. I think some of us were surprised when he was pushed to A+ last year.
c) ERA aside, he had a very strong last 2 months of the season. Granted, production still is a factor in the minors, but I think he started “pitching to his raw talent” late in the year. He had, off the top (did the numbers the other day, but don’t have it in front of me right now), a roughly 9.4 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9 while still getting a high number of ground balls (somewhere around 45-47 percent I think). While that doesn’t excuse his first two months, one thing should be noted is that the stuff jumped in midseason. I know early in the year, some had him more low 90’s, and late in the year, you started to see a trickle of reports of mid-90 velo.
oh
and I’m more surprised that Szczur made it that high. I had thought there was a slim chance Rhee or Ha could sneak in on the back end of the top 20, but I’m simply more surprised that Szczur ranked 8th. I have enough concerns about Szczur, and when you factor in his struggles there, I thought, if he made it, it would’ve been on the back end.
That said, this seems like more of a upside heavy list than some of the other lists (I mean, not like Colvin, Hicks, Flores had huge years in FSL). At the end of the day, this list also needs to be viewed as Shonerd’s list based on the comments he got.
BA is high on Szczur
Midseason top 50 they ranked him 48th. IIRC they mentioned when he finally signed that he was good enough to be a 1st round pick in this last draft that was stacked. It will be interesting to see where he will rank elsewhere. I have a feeling BA might be higher on him than most.
I'm not all that surprised either
like mrkupe said, scouts love Szczur, and I’d be fairly certain they all were there for the playoffs when he was on fire. #8-10 would be about right for me
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 3, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm only surprised
because in past years, there were cases where guys who struggled, but had physical potential, were dropped or left off some league lists.
very true
it’s been weird, the BA lists this year have definitely not been performance-slanted, even though they still seem to be describing them as such
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 3, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
furthermore
one concern with Szczur materialized in FSL with his low walk rates (actually, the walk rate declined each month in the MWL, outside, I think, of the SSS in July when he got called, too lazy to check right now).
So the combination of a weak offensive run and a fairly big concern had me thinking that if he made it, it would be a bit lower. At the end of the day, rankings are but a tool for discussion, and hey, I should be happy I guess that they ranked a Cubs player higher than I expected.
In defense of Szczur's offensive run in the FSL...
He did match his HR total from Low A (~300 PAs vs <200 PAs), which helps in the thinking that he might be able to develop 15+ HR power in the future.
Not to mention his speed skills (SBs and defense) seemed to translate really well to the FSL.
So his numbers fell a little, but there were numbers in some key areas for Szczur that show his potential. Throw in that scouts absolutely love his game and tools and it’s not all that surprising. BA has always been an upside/tools publication anyway….I know you’re saying in the past they seemed to drop guys who’s numbers dropped, but they usually keep a guy they like up there.
I’m only lately hopping on the Szczur bandwagon. I buy the athleticism as being what it’s said to be.
i like Szczur enough
The reports on his eye/approach are actually fairly solid. There’s an above average to plus hit tool. There’s some signs of power, although I have some concerns on whether or not he has to adjust his swing to get more loft in it (and how that might impact his hit tool).
I was just simply stating some reasons as to why I thought he might’ve been lower in the list.
Another way to look at that is that...
none of those prospects below him are all that amazing. I like Hicks and McGuire a bit, and Jimenez and the others are OK. He’s closer to the guys above him than the guys below him fa sho.
I don't know about that
I think it’s an eye of the beholder type of deal. There are quite a few somewhat compelling names listed below Matt Szczur.
Yeah,
I thought this was actually a pretty interesting group top to bottom. Lots of bust potential of course, but could see a lot of these guys making it to the majors, even if not as stars.
by blackoutyears on Oct 5, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
it was a fairly deep year in FSL
I feel like you could make a case for 10-15 people for the last 5 spots.
big suprise that he wasn't top 20 for me too
When you get Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobsen, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Cole Nelson, Lester Oliveros, Matt Capps, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, and 20,000 dollars for a half dozen key intrical parts to you're organization eveybody hurts.
And you're fan base begins to revolt. Why does Bill Smith evaluate talent? He would be much better served as the teams ball boy.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 3, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Molina
It definitely highlights the comments about how the lists are supposed to be slanted toward performance but are less so than alleged. I’d have thought that he’d slot into the back end as McPherson did on the EL list.
by blackoutyears on Oct 4, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
at the same time i like the Jiminez ranking
When you get Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobsen, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Cole Nelson, Lester Oliveros, Matt Capps, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, and 20,000 dollars for a half dozen key intrical parts to you're organization eveybody hurts.
And you're fan base begins to revolt. Why does Bill Smith evaluate talent? He would be much better served as the teams ball boy.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 3, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
is it?
I’ve gotten the impression that the numbers are nicer than the stuff, and I’ve heard “future reliever” in more than one place.
++ Splitter
Good four pitch mix, all that he can throw for strikes, fastball is low 90s but a little room for more and can hit 94. Only hit on him atm is the lack of stamina, but that is down to him being a position player up til two years ago, and he’s now mostly stretched out.
by TtD on Oct 3, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
are you sure?
Don’t get me wrong, that sounds like a pretty good report . . .I just question how much of that is reality.
IIRC
Callis said he had a 4 pitch arsenal that was all solid, and that although perhaps not all that exciting, “that’s the kind of guy who ends up pitching in the majors.” Not sure if he said he profiled as a reliever. He was a reliever after first converting and they have been stretching him out. Obviously at this level he has good control.
Jays have Romero and Morrow, Cecil, Hutchison, Mcguire, Kyle Drabek if he can bounce back, McGowan coming back (not sure I’d put much stock in him just due to the injury history), Snydergaard and Nicolino behind Molina, although they are a ways off.
Pitchers get injured, so something may open for him, but he may have to start off in bullpen and may then just stay there. Not meant as a knock on him, but may be his first opening and perhaps that’s where he stays.
I like him a lot, but i’m a numbers guy. His last playoff outing I think he threw 5 innings, 8 ks in AA playoffs. Nice that he kept it up in AA.
Its my understanding that one of the big reasons he's being pegged for relief is his mechanics.
He has that “recoil” type of delivery. Lots of effort. Doesn’t finish strongly. Hurts his command & control.
Here’s a vid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKNGVIep51I
Remember, I have NOT seen him personally, but heard some things as he had pitched the day before I went up there. Personally, even off this video I have a very difficult time believing he could repeat this enough to start 200 IP a year. Not sure how you can fix this kind of problem too. Tone him down and a) you have to dramatically change his mechanics; and b) you probably kill a lot of what makes him effective. I’ve been fooled before though.
hurts his command and control?
i think it’s safe to say he has absolutely no worries when it comes to command and control
by Wheelhouse on Oct 3, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
If his delivery knocks on his command and control now
I can’t imagine what his command/control would look like with a perfected delivery. Wow!
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Fair enough
As I said, I havent seen him. Perhaps its easy for him to throw strikes without a quality breaking ball?
IDK if that's the same video
I’ve seen (Baseball Instinct). The coil he’s using to start his wind-up is used successfully by Johnny Cueto (has actually shown better command despite extra movement) and Henderson Alvarez, which made me wonder if TOR employs this with certain of their pitching prospects. From what I remember of seeing Adrian Salcedo he has a similar coil, and I think we can say that a guy who gets a “too many strikes” tag isn’t having trouble repeating his delivery. So that part of the mechanics seems fine.
I did also wonder about what Al’s concerns with the finish, where I noticed that he almost hops forward off the mound. He could stand to decelerate his arm better — features that flip at the end that I’ve see from Cueto — but I’m not as alarmed by this as I was when I first watched. For one thing the arm works very well, and he doesn’t seem to put much stress on it. I think the finish actually makes his delivery look more violent than it is. I don’t think he’s a comparable prospect to Cueto, but there are some facile similarities in mechanics. As I’ve probably said before, I also like Molina’s athleticism, which is generally one of the advantages of converting position players. And you have to love the control.
by blackoutyears on Oct 4, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I've got a question in to Jim Shonerd re: Molina for today's chat
Asking very nearly this question….if it gets addressed, I’ll post his response.
related sidebar
I read from a lot of different sources all too often (and no I’m not picking on you, MrKupe), that pitchers with at least some promise or upside to be a SP get put into the “potential RP” bin awfully early, even if the kid has at least one ‘plus’ pitch. I’d rather see a kid play his way out of being a SP than being dubbed a RP too soon. Call me old-school, I suppose…
In Molina’s case, this was his first year as a SP full-time. I’d like to see him in a full season of AA before leaning towards being a RP long-term, no matter who is in front or behind him.
Not my questions, but...from Jim Shonerd, BA chat
“Greg T (London): Hi Jim. Did Dunedin righty Nestor Molina get any consideration for the Top 20? Looks like he put up some impressive numbers! Thanks!”
“Jim Shonerd: Molina was close, and you’ll be able to read a scouting report on him in the Prospect Pulse section of the upcoming print and digital editions of the magazine. In short, he’s got two quality offerings in his 91-93 mph fastball and his splitter. He was a reliever until this year, so he’s still working on developing a consistent breaking pitch.”
glad to see 91-93 instead of high 80’s to low 90’s (yeah its still low 90’s) and yeah I’ve read he has a great splitter.
I’ve read he uses 4 different pitches so he probably has a slider and curveball too but I’m not sure how good it is and he has good command. Hard not to like him even if he is not in the top 20.
no problem
I think NM does use a slider and curveball, but as Shonerd mentions, they are not consistent pitches yet. I want to see what he can do in AA with another year of being a SP under his belt.
Also, here is a collection of info for NM, including the Callis summary that wobatus refers to above:
http://theondeckcircle.net/2011/08/25/holy-hell-nestor-molina-prospect-watch/
Some BA comments over the past month or so
J. J. Cooper: “Not a lot of front end of the rotation RHPs sit at 89-92 mph.”
Callis: “Not sure you’d call any of his offerings a plus pitch”
Maybe these help explain why he was left out of the top 20. I’m sure today’s BA prospects chat will also help shed some light on their thoughts
thanks for that
Obviously there would seem to be a rather diverse range of opinions about what Molina is capable of. Very interesting to see one person say that he has a good four pitch mix with a plus-plus pitch and then to see someone else suggest that he doesn’t have a single plus pitch.
Yeah I don’t have a beef with him not being on the list, I can think of a few other guys who had good cases as well. I do find it weird that other scouting reports i’ve read have observed a plus splitter and it’s been described as “nasty” but BA finds it to be merely average.
in fairness
If a player can throw it with consistency, an average splitter can be an absolutely devastating pitch against minor league competition, especially in the lower levels.
Carlos Martinez
anyone else a little surprised at how low he is, given the fact that with more starts he would have supposedly been in the running for the #1 spot in the MWL rankings? I guess he might have been a little tired down the stretch though. How much do these weight ARL?
I definantly thought he would be top 2. I personally don’t agree with May and Colome above him, but it’ll be interesting to see where they rank him on their top 100 after this.
May and Colome
I too am very surprised to see those guys above Martinez.
Well I could see May
But Colome over him is a mistake IMO.
I don’t think many would argue that around here or anywhere. Even Rays fans would likely not have envisioned Colome ahead of C-Mart.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 3, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I might argue it
Though only because I have Colome on my fantasy team and would love to see his stock get a bump
welcome to the real motivation behind 80 to 90 percent of all Minor League Ball posts
by mrkupe on Oct 3, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Martinez
has awesome stuff, but if you’ve seen him pitch you know he does need work on the delivery and command. More of the erratic swings between performance and ceiling-based positions in rankings I guess.
by blackoutyears on Oct 4, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Anybody hear/ have anything on
Scooter Gennett, Robbie Grossman, Nestor Molina, Jarek Cunningham, Cesar Puello, Jon Pettibone
from the chat ?
my chat transcript is blocked or rather it takes me to the member’s sign in page, i’m no longer BA member.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 3, 2011 5:13 PM EDT reply actions
See above re: Molina
I asked about Cunningham but the question was never addressed. Scooter got little love (but nowhere near top-20), Grossman some love but not much, described as a “well-rounded guy who doesn’t have any carrying tools”.
Re: Puello – “Jim Shonerd: Puello would’ve been in the 21-23 range. He definitely has tools, but he still struggles to recognize breaking pitches and the Mets have been trying to take away a hook in his swing. He hit some monster HRs and showed he has the speed for center field at least for now. He started the year in right and moved to center after Matt den Dekker was promoted, and he has the arm to fit in right if that’s where he needs to be.”
from callis on twitter
Callis:Tweener OF with a lot of avg tools but no plus tools.
Q:Was Robbie Grossman close to making FSL Top 20? Suprised he did not
Callis:Stats > tools, not sure he’s even a solid regular.
Phillies Pitchers
I’m not a huge FSL guy but as a prospector who lives in the Philly region and a NL East guy can someone better suited explain to me what I’m missing with Brody Colvin who had an OK year which landed him inside the top 20 while Julio Rodriguez who’s numbers blow Colvin’s away does not? Thanks
quick take
I’m not big on Colvin, but Colvin over Rodriguez is a probably simply a nod to Colvin’s upside as he has a far superior fastball to Rodriguez. There’s a mix of reports on Rodriguez’s fastball, but even the most positive reports I can recall had him topping out low 90’s, while Colvin is more low 90’s and can peak in the mid-90’s.
Colvin’s curve is inconsistent, and Rodriguez is a more polished pitcher at this stage. Rodriguez probably has a higher floor, but for BA, this was probably a case where Colvin’s ceiling, much as I’m not big on him, is that much higher to bridge the gap on whatever floor advantage Rodriguez might have (and Colvin’s ceiling is really, really good if he ever put it together, whereas I see Rodriguez more as a 4th starter type if things work out).
But that’s me and I don’t follow the Phillies system all that closely.
Rodriguez
probably doesn’t make it for the same reasons discussed with Molina.
by blackoutyears on Oct 4, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick thoughts
- I really like the Trevor May ranking as he had an even better year than the surface #s indicate. He did have 70 or so innings at the level previously before his demotion in 2010 & walks are still an issue but he had a nice performance this year. Dude misses bats & just turned 22 – we’ll see how he adapts in the Eastern League next year (hopefully a smoother transition than some of his other level jumps). I don’t think he’s that different a prospect from Matt Harvey actually.
- I like Alex Colome & have seen his talent but I’m a little surprised he ranks above Carlos Martinez & Jonathan Singleton at least. I’d be eager to hear accounts from those with glowing recent reports on Colome. I’d have to think his stuff looked top notch to slot above relatively ‘safer’ (not to mention younger) types like Drew Hutchison, so hopefully that’s the case.
- Aaron Hicks at #18. This actually seems about right & even this ranking has to be centered around belief in Hicks’ natural skillset. I agree with Osvaldo Arcia over Hicks too for what that’s worth. Over a year & a half younger & more productive already as far as I can see. I’m seemingly much less of a believer than many here in Hicks as I think his upside is often overstated, but we’ll see what 2011 brings.
Colome is awfully high for a guy with work to do on his command, a plus fastball, an inconsistent curve, and an almost non-existant changeup.
I wonder if any of that has changed.
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