Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2012
by John Sickels on Oct 28, 2011 8:01 AM EDT
Email
Print
Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Trevor May, RHP, Grade B+: I almost went with an A- here and may revise this. Command remains erratic, but huge strikeout rate is a big positive and he's made progress with his secondary pitches. Looks like a workhorse.
2) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Grade B+: Not as overpowering as May currently, but has a high ceiling of his own and can develop into a number two starter in my view. I'd like to see him lower the walk rate, but overall he's doing just fine. Reports of improved curveball are promising.
3) Sebastian Valle, C, Grade B-: Scouting reports remain more impressive than the numbers and his plate discipline needs work, but he's got good potential on both sides of the ball and is just 21.
4) Brody Colvin, RHP, Grade B-: Went backwards in 2011, dogged by mechanical problems and a back injury, but upside remains quite high and I will cut him some slack for now.
5) Larry Greene, OF, Grade B-: Huge power, although reports differ about how polished the rest of his bat is and we have no pro data yet. Wanna dream? Think Ryan Howard with enough mobility to play the outfield. Stock will shoot higher next year if that is remotely accurate.
6) Justin De Fratus, RHP, Grade B-: Grading relievers is always problematic, but he's overpowering and ready to help now.
7) Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-: Command still needs some work, but between Aumont and De Fratus there are two potential closers here.
8) Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-: Scouting reports remain mixed and he doesn't have the physical upside of the pitchers ahead of him, but his statistics are outstanding. This is not some college guy tricking younger hitters: he didn't turn 21 until late August. I'm a believer.
9) Michael Schwimer, RHP, Grade C+: Between Schwimer, De Fratus, and Aumont, the Phillies have plenty of right-handed relief options. The others guys are younger so they rank a tad ahead grade-wise.
10) Maikel Franco, 3B, Grade C+: His .287/.367/.411 line at Williamsport may not look that great, but his OPS was 14 percent better than league average, he was just 18 years old, scouts give him good reviews, and he has a sound glove. He could break through in a big way in '12.
11) Roman Quinn, INF, Grade C+: Speed demon, has some pop as well, intriguing second round pick. The obvious comparison is Jimmy Rollins. We need to see how his tools pan out in actual games, but his ceiling is quite high.
12) Austin Wright, LHP, Grade C+: This is an aggressive ranking but I'm playing a hunch here. I have been keeping track of this guy since he was in high school in Illinois. Erratic in college, he was excellent in his pro debut, with better-than-expected command of a plus fastball and breaking ball. He's big, throws hard, threw strikes this year, and the Phillies have helped similar pitchers succeed. If he maintains this progress he'll rank quite highly next year.
13) Perci Garner, RHP, Grade C+: High-ceiling arm from '10 draft, pitched well in limited action in the New York-Penn League. Former quarterback is inexperienced for a college pitcher, but impressive upside.
14) Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP, Grade C+: Excellent performance metrics in Low-A, doesn't burn radar guns but throws strikes with fastball, slider, and changeup, keeps the ball down.
15) Jon Pettibone, RHP, Grade C+: Inning-eater type with good control of average stuff, fine year in High-A although strikeout rates not that impressive. I have nothing objective to back this up but I like him better than the numbers say I should.
16) Austin Hyatt, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy with so-so velocity, but has a terrific changeup and posted excellent component ratios in Double-A. Older prospect at age 25, but another one who could be a useful inning-eater.
17) Freddy Galvis, SS, Grade C: Everyone loves the glove but I remain skeptical about the bat. Other sources will likely rank him higher, but he looks like a utility guy to me.
18) Tyler Greene, SS, Grade C: Greene was just an 11th round pick but his tools are quite impressive, he runs well, has power potential, shows strong throwing arm, has a chance to remain at shortstop. Needs adjustments to his swing, but upside is considerable. On pure tools he would rank as high as 12 but I want to see him above rookie ball.
19) Mitchell Walding, SS, Grade C: Another pick from 2011 draft, in the fifth round. Bat is highly-regarded but he hasn't played yet, and faces a positional switch. Like Greene and Quinn, his stock has the potential to be much higher a year from now.
20) Jiwan James, OF, Grade C: The Phillies have lots of toolsy outfielders and James is my favorite of the group for no particularly objective reason. Power hasn't developed but I'll give him another year. Other tools types include Aaron Altherr, Zach Collier, Kelly Dugan, Gauntlett Eldemire, Kyrell Hudson, and of course Anthony Hewitt. All of these guys face uphill battles with the bat.
21) Joe Savery, LHP, Grade C: Looks like a nice LOOGY to me, but that's better than being an A-ball first baseman or being released, which are his other options. Good salvage job here.
OTHERS: Aaron Altherr, Garett Claypool, RHP; Tyler Cloyd, RHP; Zach Collier, OF; Kelly Dugan, OF; Gauntlett Eldemire, OF; Harold Garcia, 2B; Kenny Giles, RHP; Tyson Gillies, OF; Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Ervis Manzanillo, LHP; Harold Martinez, 3B; Bryan Morgado, LHP; Adam Morgan, LHP; Colton Murray, RHP; Mike Nesseth, RHP; Cody Overbeck, 1B; Matt Rizzotti, 1B; Darin Ruf, 1B; Ethan Stewart, LHP; Carlos Tocci, OF.
Everyone talks about how the Phillies love tools players on the hitting side and physical pitchers on the mound, and they do focus on those things. But there is more to the farm system than just the athletes. They also mix in polished college players in the middle and later rounds most years, which adds some depth to the system and gives the tools guys someone to learn from. Although they don't dump huge sums into big-bonus Latin American lottery tickets, they don't ignore the area and usually have a steady talent flow from Venezuela and the Dominican.
I'm not really into Harold Garcia and Cesar Hernandez, but you can make a case to rank them more highly than I do, depending on how you want to balance offense and defense. I think they can all be fine utility players but I have doubts they will hit enough to get beyond that.
Graduations and trades have thinned this system out, but there are still a lot of things to like. Several of the Grade C guys are players from the 2011 draft who have higher potential but need to play, so this list could look much stronger next year once we see how they pan out. I'm not convinced that any of the toolsy outfielders are going to amount to much, and they need to start hitting or the new additions will pass them.
48 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Galvis
Stands out to me the most, given he could be the Phillies starting SS in 2012 and was named their minor league hitter of the year.
Interesting note, part of his training going into 2011 was pushing a car around the field to increase his strength.
he could be the Phillies starting SS in 2012
God, I hope not.
I watched Steve Jeltz once, no need to relive that. I’m higher on Galvis than John is, but I think he still needs work with the bat. I think best case for Galvis is probably something like .260/.335/.340 or similar. If he starts next year, probably more like .225/.280/.300 and 0.0 WAR.
James VS the rest
John, do you see any of the names you mentioned along with Jiwan James (Collier, Hewitt, etc) being in the mold of Gose (high ceiling but very raw) 2 seasons ago?
by jerzbravesboy24 on Oct 28, 2011 9:07 AM EDT reply actions
the big difference for me
is obviously that james is 22 and in A ball while Gose is 20 and just had his best year while in AA.
Also, Gose was only 17 when drafted and has grown while in pro ball. He was about 5-11, 160 then and is now about 6-1, 190
With only 2 guys ranked above a B, is this the worst minor league system in baseball?
Seems to definitely be in the bottom 5. I don’t recall ever seeing a system where John only ranked 2 players above a B.
by Looney4baseball on Oct 28, 2011 10:15 AM EDT reply actions
My opinion only
but I would think White Sox & Brewers would be a worse overall system than this one.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Well, by John's grading
Milwaukee had two more straight B or better (4-2), but the beermakers had zero guys at B+ or above.
Both bottom 5 systems right now; hard to say who’s lower.
no
I’m high on the Cubs system long run, but this year’s Cubs system will likely only have 2 guys with a shot a B+’s (Brett Jackson and Javier Baez), and many don’t feel that the Cubs system is in the bottom 5.
nah, its not that bad.
It will be down towards the bottom this year and maybe next year depending how their draft choices from this year develop.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Oct 28, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
if Dom Brown were eligible,
where would he rank?
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 28, 2011 10:20 AM EDT reply actions
using John's grades (but my own for Brown)
Either 2 or 3, as Brown looks like a borderline B+. Even if his bat turns out well (and it should become more consistent), his defensive limitations are obvious and hurt his value. It’s been acknowledged for quite a while that the chink in Brown’s armor was his defense, but despite claims that he has all the tools to be a very good defender he just has not made sufficient progress. There’s only so much I can love a guy who plays below-average defense in an outfield corner unless he can mash in his sleep, and Brown isn’t quite THAT good.
Yes, and: Caveats are limited playing time over the past two seasons, a switch of defensive positions, and the hamate bone break, a known power-sapper. His arm is great, and his plate discipline is established. He still strikes me as an A prospect, but there’s little doubt in my mind that his confidence is shot.
He should be in a good spot in 2012, with the straightforward task to hit his way out of Lehigh Valley. I’ll bet he does it. It’s not as though the Phillies have been blessed with superb defensive LF during the last decade.
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 28, 2011 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure what you mean
He had 400+ plate appearances in 2010 across AAA and MLB, and another 330 this year. Not ideal, but enough time for him to develop sufficiently.
He switched defensive positions in part because he was terrible in right field. It shouldn’t be viewed as a net positive, or an excuse.
The injury is worth noting, but I think we were already operating with the assumption that his numbers were hurt somewhat by it. A corner outfielder with below-average defense and merely average power is not all that much of anything.
If the point of your post was, “Yeah, I get what you’re saying, you’re just wrong and he’s still a Grade A prospect”, it’s a point that is lost on me. I think Brown will be a useful player, a solid regular with the potential to play up here and there, but I don’t see him as a bonafide star worthy of that kind of praise.
Where are you getting your numbers from? Brown only about 180 PAs in AAA or the majors in 2010.
And the ONLY reason he switched positions was because of Hunter Pence, not because of his on field performance. I don’t even think there’s debate about that; it was clearly a consequence of the trade.
And its not as if 1 HR every 42 ABs is bad for a rookie outfielder in the majors, prorate that over 600 ABs and its 14 HRs. Considering the injury, I think that’s actually pretty good. I mean, Heyward only hit 18 his rookie year in 600 ABs.
by philiafan14364 on Oct 29, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry, my bad
He had 400+ plate appearances in 2010, but many of those were in AA. As I was responding to Wet Luzinski’s suggestion that he had “limited playing time” that season, and my response still works.
As for where I’m “getting my numbers from”: MiLB.com, Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, Statcorner . . .
Brown’s defense was below-average in right field. Are you arguing against that point? If so, provide your evidence.
His power potential is not an issue. You’ll get nowhere with me, though, by bringing up 20 year old Jason Heyward’s major league performance as a comparable to the 23 year old Brown’s season.
Ah, didn’t realize the context, my bad. Just saw something that didn’t seem right and went after it.
As for Brown’s defense, I certainly won’t argue that his defense was even average, I will however say that a move to left field probably isn’t doing him any favors. His defense really took the biggest hit when he dropped/misjudged like 8 fly balls while in LF that one game in AAA, which never happened while he was in right (if it had, the Phillies probably would have moved him to first base early on). I don’t think they even put him back in the field the rest of the year, he looked that bad. I guess it is debatable whether or not the position switch caused all those errors in that game, but I think it was at least a contributing factor.
by philiafan14364 on Oct 31, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
"his plate discipline is established."
I was impressed by what he showed in this regard, and felt that he was starting to click right before his demotion. He’s in a tough spot, though, because I think Mayberry showed real growth as well: he showed much better pitch recognition than in previous years and a shortened swing, his usable power is ahead of Brown’s, and he’s a good enough defender that he can manage CF, so is ahead of Brown there as well. Brown’s best bet is to work his butt off and wait for an injury or trade (perhaps even his own).
by blackoutyears on Oct 29, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Brown’s best bet is to work his butt off and wait for an injury or trade
You mean like Ryan Howard? Wouldn’t surprise me if Mayberry played 1B with Brown in left while Ryan recovers.
by philiafan14364 on Oct 29, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a really good point
It would be nice if there was a silver lining to Howard’s injury, and Mayberry did play some 1B this year, didn’t he? . I think Brown has to have a better ST than this year’s, or Amaro and Manuel may still look elsewhere though. I like anything that gets Mayberry’s bat in the lineup — he needs regular ABs to continue developing —even if 1B is a waste if his glove.
by blackoutyears on Oct 31, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Would Singleton rank as the #1 prospect in this system, had they kept him?
Where would Cosart and Santana rank?
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Oct 28, 2011 10:56 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think Singleton would easily be #1, and Cosart would probably be anywhere between 2-4. Santana would probably be either right above or right below Valle.
by philiafan14364 on Oct 28, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Valle: 3.5% BB rate, 23% K rate
Sananta: 6.8% BB rate, 28.9% K rate
Pick your poison.
by philiafan14364 on Oct 28, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd have Singleton as #1
But closer than “easily #1”. May took a step forward with his control this year and kept up the K-rate. Singleton’s likely a first baseman in the long run in Houston, and he’s had too many power outages. Singleton’s a year younger, and it looks like the HR’s will come. They’ve both got to tackle AA next year. Pretty close to me, maybe even 1A and 1B.
Singleton’s actually almost exactly 2 years younger than May. May: September 23, 1989, Singleton: September 18, 1991.
I don’t think May would have had anywhere near the success Singleton had at A+ 2 years ago.
by philiafan14364 on Oct 28, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, this. It’s aggravating and spooky to compare Singleton to another guy the Phillies gave up on at age 20.
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 28, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the info and opinions, guys.
I know that Singleton and Cosart are probably the top 2 prospects in Houston’s system, and I bet Santana is in the top 5.
I was just wondering if Philly has a better system than Houston this year, and trying to get some perspective by seeing where those three might rank in either system.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Oct 28, 2011 7:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wow. I didn't think Larry Greene and Tyler Greene were that far apart personally.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Oct 28, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
Trevor May - almost an A-?
In some respects I thought May’s grade was more suprising than the Galvis ranking and some shuffling of the C+ types.
May doesn’t get a ton of attention, but as a high B+ John has him presumably in the bottom of the top 10 pitching prospects in baseball. I don’t think he often gets mentioned in that kind of company.
Any thoughts on that seemingly aggressive ranking?
I like it
Always thought he was the best of the lot in that Clearwater group.
Well, I like the B+. Not sure I’d go A- on him until he irons some things out and we see how his stuff plays in the EL.
De Fratus or Aumont
Whos the future closer? Or is it Bastardo?
Minor League Ball's 2010 Rookie of the Year Poster
If you didn't know by now, my screen name is sarcastic
Aumont
I am a little surprised he is not on this list.
But I guess the control is still the big issue.
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 29, 2011 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
What do you mean?
Not on this list?
by auclairkeithbc on Oct 29, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was a bit surprised
But his K rate wasn’t that good at 24.6% and he was a bit old for rookie ball at 19. He still probably could have snuck in there somewhere, with the impressive .856 OPS. Not really a glaring omission, though.
Gillies’ injury history is troubling for sure, but he’s really the only guy under 25 besides Brown who’s demonstrated he can get on base more than 40 percent of the time over the high A level.
Call me out for dumpster diving , but I do feel that The Two Harolds bear some watching. Of the two, Harold “Bello” Garcia us a bit under the radar as he was out of the picture after May last year with a season-ender. But his 2010 was a particularly fine piece of multi-level hitting. I like (and the Phillies kind of desperately need) Martinez to make a push in 2012, but even if he does the best he might do is wind up at Clearwater by the end of next year.
And of the toolsy OF toolsheds, I agree on Jiwan James. I also like Aaron Altherr, but they’ve both got to generate some computer numbers in 2012. Bottom line is that the Phillies are now at the point where they’re hoping for some lottery tickets to hit, and most especially at positions where they know they have to replace an aging core.
phillies prospect list
seems to me johns not willing to project the younger guys with little or no data ranked higher……meaning if schwimer is really their 9th best prospect and 3 relievers take spots in the top 9 that this system is pretty weak
De Fratus for closer
It’s too bad the Phillies might lose current closer (Ryan Madsen) and former closer (Brad Lidge) this off-season. But maybe that opens up the possibility of Justin de Fratus becoming the 2012 version of Craig Kimbrel.
I also like Michael Stutes (rookie, no longer elig), Schwimer, Aaron Altherr, Freddy Galvis, Tyson Gillies, Cody Overbeck, and sleeper Mike Nesseth. Altherr, Gillies, and Overbeck have offensive potential. Galvis will only have value as a starter in our league where we use Total Bases instead of HR’s.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
