2011 World Series Game Four Prediction and Discussion
Yesterday didn't go as predicted, but I'm still running with the Cardinals in seven games expectation. To make that plausable, the Rangers have to win today, so I predict that Texas will get some revenge this evening and beat up on Edwin Jackson, winning 9-5.
Albert Pujols will go 1-for-3 with a double, an RBI, and two walks.
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Cardinals win, Cardinals in 5
They win tonight with another 10+ run explosion, then Carpenter comes in and shuts down the decider.
Everyone says the Rangers offense is the explosive one, but the Cardinals offense is better with Freese and Craig in the lineup, especially with a “%50” Hamilton.
Texas should win tonight
I can’t see the Cards winning 2 in a row in Texas. Granted, I’m a fan of Holland, but I bet he puts in a good start tonight.
he better
Washington really botched the pen management last game, IMO. It was bad enough that the team got blown out, but using up almost your entire pen (and going to the Alexi Ogando WAY too much) in such a game when you know you have Holland coming up next? In his three postseason starts this year, Holland has gone 5, 2 2/3, and 4 2/3 innings. With more of the same from him, the Texas bullpen would be left dangerously overexposed tonight and tomorrow against a very hot Cardinals lineup filled with difference-makers in a bandbox.
Rangers' bullpen is tired
So I will go with Cards. Do you think the Rangers regret omitting Uehara off their roster in favor of Matt Treanor?
I'm still taking the Rangers in six
Though I have made several bets with several people involving the purchase of cases of beer, in case of a Cardinals World Series win.
I’m really hoping to be buying that beer this Friday.
I agree i think the rangers in 6.
I feel like texas is going to win tonight. But if you ask me the winner of this game will win the Series. If texas wins its 2-2 and i think they will take it, but if the cards win its 3-1 for them and with carpenter coming up i dont like there chances.
Holland
Wow. What an unbelievable and timely outing. Rests the bullpen and gives the entire team a shot in the arm in a crucial game. There’s a man behind that summer camp Dutch-stache.
meh
a strike zone size of texas helped a bit.
Right
two hits and two walks in 8.1 IP due solely to the strike zone. And when the Cardinal hitters wax all rhapsodic, it’s because they’re what, so classy?
Major league hitters by nature detest praising opposing pitchers. But the Cardinals were one complimentary, hat-tipping bunch in assessing Holland’s performance. Third baseman David Freese said standing in the box against Holland was like facing Atlanta reliever Jonny Venters — "for eight innings.’’
“It’s not complicated,‘’ Berkman said. "He’s throwing 95-97 miles an hour from the left side. How many guys in the game do that? There’s a handful and they’re all studs. Jon Lester. CC Sabathia. David Price. There are very few of them out there. If he throws strikes, it’s going to be tough to hit him.’’
“You have to kind of expect the guy’s best shot,‘’ the Cardinals’ Matt Holliday said. "You can’t come in thinking, ‘Well, his last couple outings have been a little shaky.’ You have to try to prepare for the best Derek Holland you’re going to get. Unfortunately, we got him.’’
In the clubhouse after the game, the Cardinals walked a fine line. Yes, they conceded, the expanded strikes might have forced them to alter their approach and become less selective than they would have preferred.
“It’s important,‘’ Holliday said. "It makes it tough on us. You can’t take borderline pitches, so you have to be aggressive.‘’ Conversely, the St. Louis hitters knew it sounded like an excuse, and that quibbling over the strike zone in hindsight would be doing a disservice to Holland’s brilliant performance. After providing various assessments of the ball-and-strike tug-of-war to the first wave of reporters, Berkman was less forthcoming to the second. By the third wave, he simply shrugged and said, "The guy pitched a great game. That’s basically all you can say about him.’’
“I’ll be honest — he was very impressive,‘’ Freese said. "You don’t like to give too much credit to the opposing pitcher, but tonight he was fantastic.’’
by blackoutyears on Oct 24, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh no
We’re still doing the ‘meh’ thing? Oh well.
Use it judiciously
It’s still in effect, but there’s an under-publicized quota.
by blackoutyears on Oct 27, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Hirsute-a-palooza
Derek Holland’s moustache is beyond gnarly. There’s just got to be a movement to get a picture of that thing in dictionaries next to ‘wispy (adj)’, right?
Besides Mssr Holland, this World Series is a renaissance for facial hair in general. Where to begin – Lance Berkman & Lance Lynn (apparently these are different people by the way), Jason Motte & Mitchell Boggs (ditto), CJ Wilson, Josh Hamilton’s changing looks, Chris Carpenter with the neck beard, special appearances by Matt Kemp & Jose Bautista with their respective neatly trimmed ‘stubble beards’, Nelson Cruz with his Pharaoh-esque guise, Mike Napoli with the truck stop special, etc. Of course, the penultimate is that pimp first base coach for St. Louis – we can all only hope to someday achieve that look (would it be the ‘grizzled thinker’?). Good times.
Hamilton's
“Witness” beard was awesome and went well with his throwing: new meaning to "gun of the hand’. Holland’s moustache is on its own plane.
by blackoutyears on Oct 27, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha
‘Witness beard’ – classic. True too.
Completely agreed on Holland being the tops though (especially now that the St. Louis 1st base coach has seemingly adopted the trite goatee).
Thanks to you
I spent much of game 6 noting (and re-noting) facial hair quirks, from Jaime Garcia’s detailed perfection, to a reminder of how much Feliz and Andrus look like each other right down to their beards, to how Motte looks like he’s pitching to a (relatively) metrosexual version of himself when Napoli is up to bat. I totally see what you’re saying about Dave McKay too (Cardinal 1B coach). There’s a Sons Of Anarchy cameo in that man’s future if casting agents are watching the Series.
by blackoutyears on Oct 28, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
-two hits and two walks in 8.1 IP due solely to the strike zone-
i didn’t say that. he had good stuff. he made some good pitches. he also benefited from some calls. who is to say what would have happened if a couple early strike calls turned into balls instead. after falling behind in the count, would the young kid panic and leave a few meatballs over the plate or walk more batters? its not like that’s a scenario that hasn’t happened to him before. would cardinal hitters be a little more selective knowing they didn’t have to defend a few inches off the plate? i’ve seen the pitch chart that says the ump botched something like seven calls. you might say its not much, but that is an assessment that is completely ignorant of the context in which those missed calls occurred. when a young guy known for being wild gets a few questionable calls to go his way early in the game, it helps a bit. he gets ahead in the count instead of behind, he can throw more breaking balls and he get hitters to chase bad pitches because they feel they have to defend a larger strike zone. it doesnt mean everything. he may have made adjustments and still thrown a great game. the ultimate impact of the wide strike zone can’t be known. but i will tell you i think it helped a bit.
-And when the Cardinal hitters wax all rhapsodic, it’s because they’re what, so classy?-
abso-freaking-lutely. thats how about 95% of all major leaguers would response. you can’t change the outcome by complaining. you only come off as a whiny d-bag with the possibility of getting fined. mlb does not allow you to complain about the umpiring. when something like this happens, you grumble a little bit, tip your cap to the opposing team and get ready for the next game. thats the SOP for just about everyone.
Well. If you insist on making me point out the obvious...
Dmb could say the exact same thing about any game. I haven’t seen any unbiased sources that showed Holland had a bigger strike zone than Jackson.
It’s especially rich to hear this kind of griping from a Cardinals fan, after an EGREGIOUS blown call changed the entire course of Game 3.
I agree that post was probably near ridiculous
But not unexpected considering that complaining about strike zones in that manner is one step behind calling out ‘fire the manager’ after a hit & run play gone awry.
"after an EGREGIOUS blown call changed the entire course of Game 3."
Exactly. The sooner we install those robot umpires the better.
by blackoutyears on Oct 27, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
"you grumble a little bit, tip your cap to the opposing team and get ready for the next game."
The quotes from STL players go beyond “tipping your cap”. Fascinatingly, you didn’t even muster that basic courtesy, opting instead to ‘grumble a bit" and, presumably, “get ready for the next game”, which I’ll apologize for after the fact.
by blackoutyears on Oct 27, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
read between the lines
tony and the players were clearly frustrated with the strike zone. they also gave credit where they thought it was due.
all i said was that the strike calls were a little generous for holland, and that i thought that was A factor. i never said it was THE MOST IMPORTANT factor. i never said he didnt deserve some credit. i never said holland sucked, although i am going to say his mustache looks ridiculous. i am not sure who pissed in your cheerios. maybe it was ron kulpa. i am not giving a press conference so i dont have to spend time being courteous to derek holland. kissing his but had nothing to do with my point. i had an issue with the strike zone, so thats what i talked about.
"It’s important,‘’ Holliday said. "It makes it tough on us. You can’t take borderline pitches, so you have to be aggressive.‘’ Conversely, the St. Louis hitters knew it sounded like an excuse, and that quibbling over the strike zone in hindsight would be doing a disservice to Holland’s brilliant performance. After providing various assessments of the ball-and-strike tug-of-war to the first wave of reporters, Berkman was less forthcoming to the second. By the third wave, he simply shrugged and said, "The guy pitched a great game. That’s basically all you can say about him.’’
that basically just sums up my thoughts on the situation. cardinal hitters felt the strike zone was wide so they were aggressive in defending the corners. that opened things up for holland to take advantage of, which he did very well.
"The guy pitched a great game. That’s basically all you can say about him."
If the grapes are too sour try something else.
by blackoutyears on Oct 27, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

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