Shameless Plugging: Angels' Prospects John Hellweg, Luis Jimenez, and AJ Shugel
by rghan on Oct 19, 2011 8:07 PM EDT
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PrintI cover the minor leagues over at SBN's Halosheaven, so have monitored Angels' prospects closely these past few years. I'm counting down the top 2011 performances now, and found these three guys especially interesting, either because they outplayed expectations, or they generated similar numbers to more highly touted prospects at the same age, yet continue to receive little attention. You can click the following links to see the reports:
I know this is a shameless plug, but I really do think these guys will play their way onto the radar in 2012. I'd love to hear your opinions about how they compare with higher profile prospects across the minors.
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ARL
Hellweg was a 23 year-old beating up on younger competition. Despite the sick strike-out rate, it’s hard to know what to make of his success.
Say it with me...
A-R-L IS ONLY BARELY RELEVANT FOR PITCHERS.
In the case of a pitcher with Hellweg’s profile, I’m hardly sure it matters at all.
by PissedMick on Oct 20, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
How about the 59 walks in 89 innings then?
Or the poor FIP’s the last 2 years? ARL may only be barely relevant for pitchers, but Hellweg appears pretty raw with his control and looks like it could take a while to get under control, if he does at all. Since he will be 23 in 2 weeks, he needs to improve the control rather quickly since he’s in High A ball and likely AA next year. A 6BB/9 is actually an improvement from the 9BB/9 from 2009. There’s a lot of improvement that needs to be made.
by Looney4baseball on Oct 20, 2011 8:04 PM EDT reply actions
Obviously the control is the big red flag.
You’re off-base aside from that though. For one, there’s no reason he needs to improve “quickly” because he’ll be 23 next season. For another, Hellweg’s stuff is good enough that improved control could quickly make him a significantly better pitcher.
One reason ARL is significantly less important for pitchers is that their aging curve is completely different from a hitter’s. Hellweg could break into the majors at 26 and not even enter his decline before he hits free agency. A pitcher’s peak is just so much longer and flatter than a hitter’s.
Hellweg is different from most A+ pitchers because he has two pitches that could probably already play in the majors in the fastball and curve, likely both as plus pitches (I’ve seen reports that put the curve there, and it’s difficult for a high-90s/triple-digit fastball not to be plus). He needs to get a better idea where those pitches are going, yeah. It looks like that might be happening already though. In April/May, Hellweg walked 29 in 21.1 IP, or 12.4 BB/9. In June/July/August/September though, he walked 30 in 68 IP, or 4.0 BB/9.
Hellweg might still be a bit of a lottery ticket when projecting him as a starter, but the high-90s fastball, extreme GB%, and second plus pitch make him a pretty good bet to move relatively quickly if he can improve either the control or the change up. If he can improve both next year, he might be finishing the year in an Angels’ uniform.
Kinda weird I played with Hellweg in high school
Never played because he couldn’t throw a strike if his life depended on it. We couldn’t even pitch him in games because of fear he would kill someone.
Sam Bradford
Jimenez could turn into a W. Betemit, B. Zobrist type of player possibly. If he can't move around the diamond
I like him far less.
I probably like Schugel the most of these 3 though.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 22, 2011 5:35 PM EDT reply actions
Schugel
does look interesting, but Hellweg’s stuff is far more compelling to me. Even if he’s only a reliever he has a chance to be a dominant one.
by blackoutyears on Oct 24, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I came away impressed with Hellweg
and I saw the bad and the very good. The stuff is legit, just needs to get consistent command from start to start and develop the CH.
Jiminez seemed kind of wild and out of control at the plate, most of the hard contact was well foul on the pull side. He showed some tools, but wasn’t really a guy you see a few times and say “that’s a major leauger”
Well,
you were the one who first brought Hellweg to my attention and I was thoroughly converted after seeing some video. Ideal pitcher’s build and easy gas (no fracking required!). There are absolutely big question marks here, but this is exactly the sort of lottery ticket you dream on. Someone may have pointed this out elsewhere, but his last seven starts of the year were dominant: 35IP 19H 7R 5ER 15BB 52K
by blackoutyears on Oct 28, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
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