[Fantasy question] Stratomatic anyone?
by Galt on Oct 18, 2011 3:11 PM EDT
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PrintThis is a quasi fantasy question, but I figure during the off-season it is a little less hated than usual.
And even if you don't know/play strat-o-matic/sim baseball, it tries to align most with real baseball (thus includes defense, and other skills that fantasy doesn't include).
I have the #1 pick in my AL strat league and it is a really tough call. Pineda, Trout, and Lawrie are my three big options. There are no salaries at play and I get to keep players in perpetuity (can only keep 22 players a year out of 35 man roster)
My team stinks this year, so their 2011 seasons aren't all that important - I'm just looking to build the best team for the future.
* Pineda had a phenomenal year, and pitching is always the hardest to get, but at the same time, they get hurt so much more, and I've heard that Pineda's mechanics are just asking to break down. He's also a big time flyball pitcher, and stratomatic normalizes ballpark effects, so that he pitches in Seattle in real life shouldn't have any impact on his value in the game.
* Trout probably has the highest upside as being a teenager in MLB is a great sign for future success, but he will likely be at LF or RF for the foreseeable future since Bourjos is there which hurts his value
* Lawrie showed massive power, and 3b is a black hole for me. But aside from UZR this year, I've heard bad things about his defense, and his MLB performance just seemed flukey.
My roster going into this season is
C: Avila
1B: Nick Swisher
2B: Gordon Beckham
SS: Alexei Ramirez
3B: Nobody
OF: Willingham, Bourjos, Shin Soo Choo
Bench: Grady Sizemore, Kendry Morales, Chris Carter, Sean Rodriguez
SP: Felix, Pavano, Marcum, Baker, Tomlin, Wade Davis, Liriano
RP: League, Chris Perez, Harden
So Lawrie would fill the most obvious hole (and 3b is really thin), Pineda has already proven himself over a full season, but offers more injury risk, and Trout has the potential to be a top 10 player, but seems like the biggest risk as well. I need a lot of help, and would likely be a few years away from competing.
I have the #1 and #15 pick, and the only people eligible for the draft are those who made their MLB debuts this year. If I pass on Lawrie, Moustakas will be gone. Ditto Hosmer, Matt Moore, Montero, Ackley, etc. All gone.
So if you could have any of the three players (IN REAL BASEBALL, NOT FANTASY), who would it be?
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Trout
and it’s not even close.
Read this and this (second one has a part two)
Plus, he won’t be at a corner forever, and then being in CF will make him even more valuable.
Although if Matt Moore is an option I think you have to strongly consider him.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 18, 2011 6:40 PM EDT reply actions
+1
I think Lawrie will be a stud, in the field and at the plate and there is nothing fluky about him.
I don’t there is anything about Pineda’s mechanics that don’t bode well for his future.
I would still take Trout.
You should take Trout and try to get the second pick as well. Think big!
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Eh
If the main justification here is those two articles, I think an important part of the argument (i.e., Lawrie’s profile) is left unaddressed….sure, Trout may be in rare company, but might not Lawrie also?
Regarding the first article, show me the peer group of infielders who have hit the way Lawrie during a debut season at age-21, and then we can see if Trout is really that far ahead.
Regarding the second, the point there is not so much that younger guys will turn out better than older, but rather that they are consistently underrated vs draft position.
There may be good reasons to take Trout, but articles extolling the virtues of the uber young while not discussing the slightly-less-young who DOMINATED IN THEIR FIRST EXPOSURE can’t make the case by themselves.
Eagerly waiting to hear the Cox to Wong to Pujols double play call.
It's
not my main. It’s simply some frosting. I feel like Trout will provide offensive value equal or better than Lawrie while playing a plus CF. Trout also has more upside in my opinion, even though Lawrie clearly also has tremendous upside.
The poll said “Real Baseball, Not Fantasy” and while I readily admit (see below) I don’t know exactly how stratomatic works, based off of that caveat, Trout runs away with by virtue of his positional advantage.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 27, 2011 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Much more defensible
I don’t disagree with the choice, but found it a little specious to base it on the articles.
I suppose what alarmed me at the get-go was also the “it’s not even close” declaration, which has a pretty high rate of fail between top prospects. Awful lot of consensus no-brainer “its not even closes” that have backfired…. (of course, Homer Bailey and Brandon Wood account for 50% of these). :)
I like Trout too. It will be very interesting to see who eventually becomes the more valuable player.
Eagerly waiting to hear the Cox to Wong to Pujols double play call.
I'm assuming you have usage limits?
Because I would take the pitching, but I’d be more inclined to take Moore over Pineda if you’re not going to compete this coming season, which it doesn’t really look like you will. Unless, of course you need the innings. You can always trade excess pitching for bats.
Can you trade the pick? If so, I would try to drop down 4 or 5 spots and pick up another player. You’ve only got 21 keepers listed, so you could potentially pick up another guy worth keeping and still end up with Moore or Ackley or Montero.
If you decide to take a bat in stead, I’d easily go with Trout. While he may not be playing center, he has a better chance of being a 1 (-1) in the outfield than Lawrie ever will of being a 2 at 3B. So Lawrie will really have to pound to be better than Trout.
It's a 10 team AL only league,
not deep enough that Moore being a lefty won’t hurt his value many years. Plus, if I’m going to take a pitcher, I need to take someone that has already proved himself. Moore looks amazing and I’d love him, but I just can’t take him over Pineda
The articles that McCutchen posted have really sold me on Trout.
I wanted to take Lawrie because 3b is such a black hole for me, and I wanted Pineda because having Felix and Pineda for the next decade could be an unstoppable duo if I can just get some bats.
I would love to have someone give me a ton to move down a few spots, or would love to acquire another first round pick or two, but it’s a pretty wise league, so everyone sees the depth that I see and I doubt I could pull it off. I just don’t have much value to trade other than Felix, Avila, and maybe Bourjos. League is nice but no one will give me a first, and Marcum was solid, but he gets hit very hard vs. lefties.
I have
no articles to link on this one, but take Moore over Pineda. I’m not sure entirely how stratomatic works, but even if the the actual division and park each will pitch in still apply, Moore is still going to put up better numbers. Pineda has a filthy, filthy fastball, but it “only” (only in quotes for a reason) comes with a plus slider on the side.
Moore arguably has three plus-plus pitches, including an absolutely filthy change-up to go with elite velocity. Plus it all comes from the left side. That combination is reminiscent of a guy named Johan Santana. Take the guy with the more complete arsenal.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 19, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
one of the hitches about strat
is that leftty pitchers are at a disadvantage. It’s not hard to find guys who hit lefties well. So if I have a 25 man roster, I fill my offense with 7or 8 guys who hit RHP really well, and then have some of my reserve hitters be guys like Sean Rodriguez, David Freese, Ryan Hanigan et al, who just crush lefties.
So whenever a lefty like Matt Moore faces me, he’s facing a lineup of guys who have 1.000 OPS against lefties. It’s one of the flaws of strat, and one of the ways to game the system. Even extremely dominant lefties like Hamels, Johan, Sabathia, and Cliff Lee aren’t typically treated as top 10 SPs because of the way the way that people can stack lineups. in a 20 team league, it’s a bit harder, but still has an impact.
That
makes sense. Well then just go with Trout :D
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Oct 20, 2011 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions
LHP
I’ve got a 20 team MLB league, so it should play pretty close to a 10 team AL-only. We take measures to dampen the effect, but the lefty punishment is still ~15 points of wOBA. So left handed starters and closers expect to allow runs at a clip of ~0.50/9 higher than a righty with equal MLB stats.
That said, don’t take a pitcher. I voted for Trout, but you can’t really go wrong with Lawrie either. Just. Don’t. Take. A. Pitcher.
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Due to your abyss at 3B
I would say Brett Lawrie. In stratomatic, finding an elite infielder is a lot harder than an outfielder or pitcher. Lawrie provides you with good power at 3B, his card for next year will reflect a .953 OPS which is the best of any 3B from this season (next would be Sandoval at .909 and Beltre at .892, so Lawrie is by far the best offensive 3B) with probably B speed (possibly A), my only concern with him is his fielding wasn’t that great.
Trout’s card isn’t going to be that impressive in the near future considering how many guys he’s competing with for playing time in LA.
Pineda is not a bad choice but finding good pitching in a 10 team league isn’t all that difficult.
For me Lawrie is a no-brainer for a stratomatic league.
my only question
is whether you think Chisenhall would be available at 15 and if he’d be worth passing on Lawrie and grabbing someone like Trout or Pineda (I think I’d go Trout over Pineda, elite offense is what wins in stratomatic in my experience).
It's actually a 20 team league
I have two teams in the league. one AL and one NL.
Chisenhall will likely be available, but I’m not that impressed with him (sub .800 minor league OPS).
Because of my hole at 3b, I wanted to grab Lawrie, given how relatively easy it is to fill OF (especially with me having Bourjos and his perrenial 1 range at CF) and how I am better at picking SPs than hitters.
It’s just the massive upside Trout offers given his age is making it tough to pass up. I’d love to cajole another early pick, but haven’t had much luck.
If you like Strat ...
You might try Scoresheet baseball some time. Like Strat, it takes defense into account, L/R splits, etc. It mirrors real baseball, but I think its statistics are a little more fine-grained, and lefty pitchers aren’t at any overall disadvantage.
I have no financial affiliation with Scoresheet. :) Just like it, and everyone I know who tries it gets addicted.
Oh ...
And the big difference between Strat and Scoresheet: Scoresheet plays out its games using the current year’s stats, week-to-week. So it’s like Strat, but for next year, like most fantasy games.
And I’d take Trout. And then see if I could trade up to get Lawrie too, or Moustakas if that fails.
BIG Thumbs up...
for Scoresheet Baseball – been playing for some 20+ years…great fun
I'd go Matt Moore or Mike Trout
I still like Moore more than Pineda collatas
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2011 5:45 PM EDT reply actions
Deep Minors Strat League
I run a 26-team total-keeper strat league where each team maintains a minor league system of up to 45 players. That’s almost 1200 deep in prospects.
If you are into prospects (since you’re on this site, I’m guessing you are) AND Strat, we have occasional openings.
For more info, send PM.
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