Theo Epstein joining Cubs

Epstein is obviously a talented GM, but the gap has shrunk a lot since he and Beane were the only game in town for SABR-oriented front office types 7-8 years ago. Not sure he’s worth the premium the Cubs are paying him. After all, it’s not exactly as if his model for success is a trade secret. Any number of GM candidates can be found who will double or triple the player development budget, thumb their nose at MLB slot recommendations and draft at least a half-dozen signability guys every year, and staff the FO with a top notch analytical department. Maybe Epstein has a head start on some other guys because of the stats guys who are loyal to him and the proprietary systems they’ve developed for him, but that’s not as huge an advantage today as it was in, say, 2006.

In terms of the intangible portions of “managing” the franchise, I’m not sure he really adds that much value (not saying he doesn’t add any, but his salary is huge compared with what most GM’s around the league make). In fact, as far as looking at creative trades, signings, and organizational philosophies, I’d throw out there that there’s good reason to believe he’s only the 3rd best GM in his own division, behind AA and AF.

Of course, things like that are impossible to quantify. And there’s definitely something to be said for injecting a big name – Epstein’s star power will allow him a great deal of good will with fans as he clears house, and he’s got a good track record attracting free agents.

I suppose my problem is that this seems like the front office equivalent of bringing in a big-name proven vet to inject life into the franchise – kind of the GM equivalent of the Jayson Werth signing, where you’re making a splash and rewarding someone for past performance rather than looking at whether he’s the best hire moving forward, given the circumstances (namely, that he costs about 15x the guaranteed money of a bright up-and-comer first-time GM).

So, yeah. I like that the Cubs are shaking things up and announcing their foray into 21st century baseball management with a bang. But I’m not sure Epstein’s quite the silver bullet you’re making him out to be.

He’s a step in a different and hopefully the right direction. The Cubs don’t do anything but throw $ at free agents and quit too soon on their young talent (Castro excepted) with no discernible minor league/major league philosophy.

Here’s the early frontrunner for ‘understatement of the week’. I like your odds, Dan S.!

- There’s money to do it.
- The team could use an impact bat.
- Two impact bats are available at a position where we have no one lined up for 2012. One of those guys is a mere 27 years of age. It also happens to be a position that other big time clubs have designated for big money bats, which don’t come around so often.
etc.

If the Cubs aren’t active in FA then I will have my questions…Unless they rock the trade market.

I don’t think it’s that big of a stretch. Who knows what MIL & STL will look like if they lose Fielder & Pujols respectively? HOU is still going to be a mess. CIN has talent but Dusty is still around to screw things up. PIT is on the rise but they need to shore up their pitching. It doesn’t look good with their roster construction as is but whoever comes in will be making changes starting with jettisoning Zambrano. As always, I’m hopeful.

I’d like to see it just so that he can very publicly prove that he’s not quite the genius he’s reputed to be.

it’ll be interesting to see how much Epstein will go around making big FA signings, whether guys like Lackey were part of his philosophy, or whether that was pressure from ownership/arms race maneuvering with the Yankees

not sure the Crawford move should be lumped with the Lackey move though. at least, based on my memory, the Crawford move was relatively well-regarded at the time among sabr-communities, whereas the Lackey move was highly lambasted

ESPN is reporting that the Cubs will pick up Epstein’s conclusion bonus of $5m for the Sox, so that may be it. Or there may be other $$ involved, not necessarily players. If you’re looking for some names, though…I’d start with the Rule 5 eligible list (minus Vitters and Szczur), which I think is:
Jeff Beliveau
Steve Clevenger
Ryan Flaherty
Marwin Gonzalez
Jay Jackson
Junior Lake
Dae-Eun Rhee
Marquez Smith

Not much left since they can’t trade any 2011 draftees. McNutt, Szcur and after that I’m drawing a blank. A few guys further down the line that tooster likes to hype, like Rhee. I’d love to see them take on Soriano but that ain’t happening.

@SI_JonHeyman
Jon Heyman
there is a bit of discussion whether #cubs send cash or minor leaguers to #redsox for theo. so far boston prefers the $.

My best guess would be someone in that 2nd/3rd tier of Cubs prospects. Maybe a pen arm like a Chris Carpenter, someone who might replace Bard as Bard replaces Papelbon (I’m actually not too big on Carpenter). Maybe a Flaherty, someone who might be able to buy Will Middlebrooks another year in the minors and step in at 3rd base.

To be fair, I think the only person that I’d be surprised would be Brett Jackson or one of the young guys the Cubs added in the past draft. I don’t really see McNutt or Szczur, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

Still tinkering with some things and trying to get some reports to get a better gauge, but

1. Brett Jackson
2. Marco Hernandez
3. Matt Szczur
4. Trey McNutt
5. Javier Baez
6. Dae-Eun Rhee

That roughly are the B- and higher guys. I think an argument could be made for one or two more guys (John has said he was thinking about a B- for Jeffry Antigua for example), but that’s the way I’m leaning right now.

7. Dillon Maples
8. Ben Wells
9. Josh Vitters
10. Jae-Hoon Ha
11. Reggie Golden
12. Robert Whtienack
13. Jeffry Antigua
14. Dan Vogelbach
15. Welington Castillo

Still working out the back end, have C+’s roughly to the early 20’s. There’s a bevy of high upside, low level arms that I could see Cherington go after, guys like Luis Liria (low-mid 90’s fastball, solid slider, eh change, command is an issue), Starling Peralta (mid-90’s fastball, decent slider/change, expecting to fill out a bit more), Welington Cruz (lefty is more low 90’s, high 80’s, but there’s some projection, decent secondary pitches as of now), Amaury Paulino, and a few others, along with the aforementioned Wells/Maples (doubt Maples gets moved).

My guess is that it’s either going to be a low level, upside guy like that (positionally, I doubt Marco Hernandez is moved, but I doubt he’s untouchable, Gioskar Amaya may hold some intrigue) or more of an upper level veteran.

Actually, one guy that may make some sense might be a Welington Castillo (or a Steve Clevenger), upper level catchers. Castillo’s got a bit more potential than Clevenger. Clevenger’s your steady eddie, decent defensively, makes good contact, while Welington has better offensive (power) and defensive potential. Then there are, as noted, guys like Ryan Flaherty. The Cubs have guys that could fill pen roles. Alberto Cabrera can still bring the heat and has a good slider. Maybe the Red Sox try to fix Jay Jackson’s slider. Noted Carpenter above. Rafael Dolis might be another thought.

couple unconfirmed twitter rumors mentioned his name. he is on the rule 5 eligible list, so it’s possible.

I’d be pleasantly surprised if he got there once, and I love the kid.

that it’s not going to be a major leaguer, if compensation is even a player. I think Scott Miller had it right yesterday: “If Boston receives, say, two second-tier players in exchange, then those players always will be linked to Epstein. And if he wins a World Series with the Cubs and the players fade as second-tier prospects usually do, then that becomes a lifetime source of embarrassment for the Red Sox. Whereas, if an organization already flush with cash simply takes a few million back in compensation, that money will fade into history no matter what Epstein does in Chicago.”

(MAJOR knock on wood for the world series.)

is actually fairly exciting in the lower levels. I think you’ll find that a lot of Cubs fans are actually more excited about the system this year than the more highly rated one last year.

I’m okay with the scouting aspect for the Cubs (not that it couldn’t be better, but I’m fine with Wilken). I’m more concerned with the player development aspect. Some of the more intriguing talent was pushed up the system this year (Jae Hoon Ha, as wary as I am of him, was only 20 this year). I’m hoping that Oneri Fleita gets reassigned. Never been the biggest fan of some of the movement in the system.

A) I think stinking it up really bad isn’t the best course. The system is probably 2 years away from potentially being able to provide multiple regulars (and that’s if a lot goes well). By digging a hole that much wider, it’s going to be harder to compete for FA’s without overspending – akin to the Orioles situation in some respects, where no one would go there unless they got overpaid by a lot.

Ricketts is going to provide Theo a solid budget. Whatever that number is, it’s more than enough. I think the best course of action is to let the contracts run out, sign some 2nd tier talent on short 2-3 year deals, and bide your time. It keeps the club competitive, allows the system to develop, and doesn’t hamper things.

b) I am all for letting Pena go, letting Aramis walk if he wants 3 guaranteed years or more, shopping Z, and moving Soriano. I am actually in support of keeping Dempster around. I’d actually see if Dempster is willing to decline the player option and work on a 2 year deal at a lower AAV. I’m not opposed to giving him 2 and an option. Now, the AAV has to be lower, but I think there’s reason to think Dempster would stick around (loves the area, kid has a medical condition). I want to keep Dempster around because he’s still a good pitcher (K/9, BB/9 were roughly similar to last year, no noticeable signs of aging) and he’s good in the clubhouse. The price and years have to be right (9 mil AAV is probably what I’d hope for, be open to 10 mil AAV) though.

But re-signing Ramirez is a 2012-2013 move. I highly doubt he is contributing much by 2014.

sure, there’s no way Epstein returns to GM for the Red Sox. but the Red Sox still legally hold his contract rights. and his contract is already a dead sunk cost.

the Red Sox can holdout and extort however much they can from the Cubs, and as long as it’s less than what the Cubs deem is one-year’s worth of Theo Epstein (or maybe it’s getting Theo Epstein one year quicker), they’ll pay out.

Carpenter, Lake, (insert name)? Personally, I would’ve been OK sending McNutt and getting this over with last week.

Think the Cubs would deal him? Shoulder issue possibly scaring them a bit?

Losing the GM sucks, but at least they have a replacement. Losing the GM AND your scouting director? That’s harsh, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the return to the Padres is greater than that given to the Red Sox.