John Sickels Farm System Rankings

I think that the major issue with updating the ‘value’ is that say a high schooler drafted in 2000 is the subject. Lets say he spent 5 years in the minor leagues and made his debut in September 2005. That means that his first full season was 2006. There isn’t enough data on him to include into the ‘value’ part of such a study yet. I do agree with you though, that the data does have some issues with it because of how the 90’s were in terms of developing pitchers compared to the 2000’s.

Take a look at the previous year. And the one before that. How many players are on all the lists? My guess is that you have many more repeat hitters than pitchers and that is why the values are skewed toward hitters. They don’t often miss entire seasons with surgeries, while pitchers often do (I use the word often in comparison to position players).

But somehow found himself with the Royals. Working on fixing both graphs now.

Ratings for hitters are likely to be more accurate, whether they predict stardom or mediocrity.

It is uninspiring if you dig for whatever weaknesses you can find on each prospect outside of Mike Trout. You’re basically advocating every other top ten Angel prospect should have a lower grade based on your certain cherrypicking of stats/opinion/etc.

Alternatively for e.g:

ARL for pitchers is less important than experience – i.e. the 22yr old issue is frankly of smaller significance than Richards (1st pro year out of college) arsenal of pitches, scouting reports, stats (K%, K/BB, GB%) which are all befitting a B grade.

Martinez Mesa – you focus on the BB’s, but the killer fastball/slider, scouting reports, K’s, H/IP and youth, should indicate plenty of room to grow (2011 will be is third pro year, in A+).

Of course Cowart and Bedrosian have Q marks! They are recent draftees as are many other prospects, many of whom actually received far more ‘aggressive’ rankings than B-. These grades are based on scouting reports. You may question it, but unless you have alternative scouting reports that indicate those two are very overrated I don’t see how you can quibble? Grichuk outside of BB issues (which are very important and will stop him getting higher grades if he can’t learn to walk) has actually hit pretty damn well, check his numbers and power, then remember he is only 19 as well. A B- is very fair.

John is pretty consistent with pitchers he considers as closers (and Walden with his 100mph is certainly a possible future closer) and they usually receive either a B or a B+. Walden’s stuff merits a B based upon consistency of ranking and Walden’s pure stuff.

Segura isn’t ‘exciting’? Even John said he felt his grade might be conservative, others have him higher. I think a potential .280-.300, 10-15HR, 20-30SB future SS/2B is pretty exciting, and I don’t think I would be alone.

Chatwood – young, great GB%, nice scouting reports indicating #3 starter potential, good K% until he moved up to AA where he initially struggled then finished well. There is some good projection in him too. I also think a B grade is pretty fair, he has continued to improve his command (BB rate) bit by bit, year by year. I also know that that has been his main focus too. Mastering command.

I think what I have written is a pretty fair assessment of the Angels, and one of the reasons their minor league ranking is in the top 10, this year. These things are fluid and can change. We would have been mid to bottom third probably last year. Who knows next year, performance dictates, and 2010 was actually a pretty good year for the Angels minor league team (if not their major league team…).

And it includes the (my) #2 prospect in baseball. There are a few loaded systems this year, but after that, it matches up fairly well with the next tier.