Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2011
by John Sickels on Jan 4, 2011 11:01 AM EST
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All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2011
1) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade A: I love him. Future number two starter if he stays healthy.
2) Dustin Ackley, 2B, Grade A-: Borderline B+. Went back and forth on this one, but I saw him in the Arizona Fall League and he looked like the player he was supposed to be coming out of college. I will let this grade from last year ride. He generates a wide variety of opinion but I'll stick with the optimists.
3) Nick Franklin, SS, Grade B: Borderline B+, would get that if I was convinced he could stay at shortstop. Love the bat.
4) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Grade B-: Raw, but I love the upside.
5) Mauricio Robles, LHP, Grade B-: Command concerns preclude higher grade, but I like him and think he is a bit overlooked on a national basis.
6) Alex Liddi, 3B, Grade B-: His season with the bat was actually slightly better than 2009, once you account for league and park contexts. There is some concern about the glove, but I like his trendlines.
7) Guillermo Pimentel, OF, Grade C+: Youth and power stand out, but quite raw with a risk that he never gets the strike zone under control.
8) Johermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C+: As with many Mariners prospects, the High Desert question precludes a higher grade until we see him in Double-A.
9) Kyle Seager, 2B, Grade C+: Polished and I think he'll hit at higher levels, but a year and a half older than Chavez.
10) James Jones, OF, Grade C+: Despite bad first half at Clinton, I love this guy and I think he might turn into something special.
11) Dan Cortes, RHP, Grade C+: Took well to relief role but was unable to sustain improved command in winter ball.
12) Marcus Littlewood, SS, Grade C+ Should have a good bat, but questions exist about position and long-term power potential.
13) Ramon Morla, 3B, Grade C+: Outstanding power production in Appy League, plate discipline is an issue. Good scouting reports on glove but needs to cut errors.
14) Nate Tenbrink, 3B-OF, Grade C+: Has decent tools, can swipe a base, hit for some power, sleeper prospect.
15) Ji-Man Choi, C-1B, Grade C+: Very polished bat for his age, questions are power and long-term position.
16) Blake Beavan, RHP, Grade C+: I'm not a huge fan, strikeout rate is so low, could be a Nick Blackburn type with short-term success until the league catches up.
17) Vince Catricala, 1B, Grade C+: Overlooked professional hitter who did very well in the Midwest League at age 21, should put up huge numbers at High Desert.
18) Esteilon Peguero, SS, Grade C+: Wild guess on grade and placement without any North American data. I refuse to buy whole-heartedly into any player this young who hasn't played against decent amateur competition based on nothing but positive-but-vague scouting reports.
19) Stephen Pryor, RHP, Grade C+: Hard-thrower from 2010 draft could rise quickly, has closer potential.
20) Josh Lueke, RHP, Grade C+: I love his talent, but enormous baggage and makeup questions preclude a higher grade for me.
OTHERS OF NOTE: Jabari Blash, OF; Anthony Fernandez, LHP; Jose Flores, RHP; Jimmy Gillheeny, LHP; Greg Halman, OF; Matt Mangini, 3B; Yoervis Medina, RHP; George Mieses, RHP; Brian Moran, LHP; James Paxton, LHP; Carlos Peguero, OF; Rich Poythress, 1B; Dennis Raben, OF-1B; Erasmo Ramirez, RHP; Jordan Shipers, LHP; Carlos Triunfel, "SS", Richard Vargas, RHP; Mickey Wiswall, 1B.
The Mariners have a truly elite pitching prospect in Michael Pineda, and what I saw in Arizona convinced me that Ackley is still an elite prospect too despite his somewhat disappointing '10 season. Franklin projects as a major league regular.
After that, there is a huge batch of B-/C+ prospects. Some of them should be solid major leaguers (Liddi, Robles, Seager), while many others have loads of potential but are still too far away or have too many questions to earn elite grades just yet (Jones, Pimentel, Chavez, Morla, etc). All in all, while I don't see the Mariners at the top of the farm system charts, they have a strong trio at the top and a broad base of intriguing talent beneath it. If the high ceiling guys have good years in '11, this system could look quite loaded a year from now.
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Thank you
It’s good to see one evaluator take note of improvements by a few guys in this system with “regular” upside rather than star upside.
Most evaluators look at Liddi’s 2009 and 2010 and see a big drop-off, but I’m with you, John. The statistics are about even, and watching him hit in the Southern League, he showed a good approach even in bad at-bats, and squared up well when he got a pitch.
Especially nice to see attention for Catricala and Tenbrink, though.
Liddi
His season last year was really impressive even after accounting for the park and league. He actually very slightly underperformed my expectations this year. I was advocating him as a top 100 guy a year ago though, so I was pretty high on him. And I said “next year in the Southern League I expect he’ll hit about .290 with an .850 OPS, which will put him in the top 20 in that league, and probably only 1 or 2 of the others will be under age 22 there”.
Well, he hit .281 with an .829 OPS, which ranked 18th. So I didn’t miss by too much. The bigger concern though is the strikeout rate went from 21.6% of PA last year to 25.7% of PA this year. The power is still there though, and the plate discipline a tic above average. And he is a guy who came out of Italy; you have to be happy with where he is at this point and hope the strikeouts come down if given more time to adjust to upper levels.
I'd be higher on Liddi if he had a single plus tool.
He’s going to top out as a 2nd-division starter. I agree his performance record is solid, it’s just really, really hard to see him as a major leaguer.
Although I would probably have Ackley at B+
I pretty much agree with most of this! Which is fun. I really like what James Jones did in the 2nd half of last season too.
To Seattle fans: Will Pineda start the year in AAA, or the majors, or are they letting spring training sort things out? What sort of numbers do people see? I’m a fan (especially with their defense and park behind him).
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 4, 2011 11:23 AM EST reply actions
I think Pineda will spend atleast a month in Tacoma unless someone gets hurt.
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jan 4, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Zdurencik said he'll compete for a job but I do believe in interest of service time he'll be called up in June.
You got slurved!
Maybe...
but I think it’s a terrible idea to mess around with pitchers due to service time concerns. Hitters sure, but there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect who you can be confident will still be healthy and effective 7 years from now. I say get the MLB value out of your young arms as soon as they show they’re ready to provide it. There’s plenty of time to worry about the team’s 2017 rotation later.
I should add...
that the rumblings from the FO filtered through the Seattle-area media seem to indicate that Zduriencik’s in line with my thinking on this. He’s been adamant that Ackley needs more AAA time, while he’s repeatedly said Pineda has a shot to crack the rotation. Assuming the health of all candidates, Pineda’s almost certainly at least the 5th best option for the Ms’ 2011 rotation right now, even with his problems against lefties.. Health is a tough thing to assume, though, given that one of the candidates is Erik Bedard.
Right now I think there’s about a 50% chance Pineda cracks the season in the rotation. If the Ms bring in another starter like Jeff Francis, that goes down significantly, though.
Where's the love for Poythress?
He has such raw power he should at least be a C+ based on potential.
im surprised john gave pineda a straight a
not so much in the grade itself, but the fact that it was followed up with future number two. typically he reserves straight a’s for the true elite. that being said, i could easily see him being a number one. now that i think of it, he may be saying number two because of the presence of felix, in which case it all makes perfect sense
As a Padres fan
whose top 2 prospects (Kelly & Castro) who are also potential #2’s (according to John), I also wondered at the straight A – but I think he may have said 2-3 starters. And I don’t have a problem grading Pineda ahead of the Padres twosome…
-peter
+1
My thoughts exactly.
John, is Felix the reason you see pineda as a future #2?
by thehitonecafe on Jan 4, 2011 12:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm not
He’s dominated at every level he’s been at in his career, has excellent stuff and, barring injury, is essentially a lock to be at least a #2 starter in the majors. All that being said, it’s consistent for John. Alvarez got a straight A last year even though John was convinced he is moving to 1B. Hellickson got a straight A this year even though most don’t see him as a future #1. I know thats a little different because he’s done it at the ML level, but the same concept is in play.
As for Kelly and Castro, they aren’t even in the ballpark of Pineda. Castro’s stuff isn’t at the same level as Pineda’s, but he could very well make a similar jump next year. Kelly on the other hand isn’t even in the conversation. He may have the tools to be a future 2-3 start, but he hasn’t put any of it together and is far far away from being a lock to do so. Both of those things make enough of a difference for a two grade difference
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/
well, as i said
i agree with the rating. that being said, i dont catch every prospect list he puts out. as much as id like to, i just dont have the time for it. i just assumed that straight a’s were for frontline starters in regards to pitchers. i read his description of of his grades, which is something i had not done in i dont know how long, and based off that he’s right in line, so nothing wrong with the straight a. he’ll never be a number 1 as long as he and felix are both in seattle anyways. i will say, he is far and away the best at what he does compared to most of the other sites i have seen, so i’ll take his view over others’ any day.
Noriega?
Paxton makes the cut of 38, but no mention of Noriega? A little surprised.
Noriega was a little overhyped going into last season
And though he is still young he has pretty much fallen off the prospect map for a lot of people.
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jan 4, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Given that JS had him as the #3 prospect in the system a year ago...
I was just surprised that he didn’t get an honorable mention.
im sure it had something to do with the fact that the m's acquired a few prospects
and several others took steps forward, something noriega did not do. thats a recipe for getting passed over. at his age, hes still got time to get back up there, but he doesnt belong there this year
Everybody makes mistakes.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 5, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Chaz Roe?
Any thoughts on him? He was acquired from Colorado in the Jose Lopez deal.
Is he a top 40 guy in the system or not?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
He's not
He might not make it to Spring Training if they try to take him off the 40 man
Smoak, Saunders, Moore
If these guys still had prospect status, where would you rank them? A little surprised at the lack of love for Josh Fields (compared to say, Flores), but injuries and control have hampered his development.
by goyo70 on Jan 4, 2011 11:53 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
He's also 25 and walks too many guys.
His strikeout rates also haven’t been anything too special, and he’s a reliever which greatly limits his upside. I still maybe give him an honorable mention but he’s not looking like a dominant closer at this point. More a middle relief type.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 4, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
I'll give this a shot
Smoak B+
Saunders – B
Moore C+
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 4, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
Halman
still at least a C+? Obviously he has huge negatives. But between the fielding, the power and the still reasonable age to level he also has a lot more positives than most player’s at that kind of grade level.
He has a lot more positives
but his hitting approach is far too flawed to ever succeed. He’s shown no progress. You just can’t strikeout that much and expect to make it in the majors.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 4, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
"No progress" is an exaggeration
His walk rate improved a notch last year, to a not-terrible 9% or so. The comparisons to Preston Wilson still seem reasonable to me. He remains a flawed prospect, and leaving him off the top 20 seemed reasonable a year ago (when he failed to crack a .700 OPS at AA), but he should be back on the radar now.
by Suburban Shocker on Jan 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
On the radar is one thing...
but virtually every prospect of even minor note in the Ms system has a better chance at a major league career than Halman does. His upside is still theoretically higher, but the flaws are far too big to ignore. He’s still more notable than some on the “Others of Note” list (most notably, Carlos Peguero and Jabari Blash – both very poor man’s versions of Halman), but he didn’t raise his stock all that much in 2010.
Ackley
If Ackley wasn’t drafted #2 overall I really don’t think that he gets anywhere close to an A-. I will post MrKupe’s comments on Ackley because I really think they summarize him nicely:
I don’t really believe he’ll play second base for long, especially for a Mariners organization that seems to be putting a strong emphasis on defense. He gets credit for the very aggressive promotion schedule, but I’m still a little disconcerted by the early returns. He’s probably a LF (albeit one who plays the position well), his power is average at best, and even his batting average wasn’t much to talk about. He reminds me a lot of Jeremy Reed, and it’s worth noting that although Reed was expected to hit for a high average with strong plate discipline, his one standout tool (hitting for average) was ultimately negated by his weaknesses. We’ve seen similar things happen with some other top prospects possessing similar offensive profiles (Casey Kotchman, Sean Burroughs, Howie Kendrick to a certain extent, Delmon Young until 2010).
After thinking about it some more, I might actually go B on Ackley. He’s a solid prospect who should be a major league regular somewhere, but I’m not sure I see a lot of above-average potential here and it’s very possible for him to fall on his face.
I do like Ackley but he has serious questions about his power and ability to stay at second base. Jim Callis recently said they should just move him to the OF and get it over with. When you combine that with his poor season as a whole at the plate, and his inability to turn his supposed plus plus speed to actual steals, I am not sure how he was even considered for an A- grade.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2011 12:13 PM EST reply actions
ding ding ding
I couldn’t agree more!
I find the Dustin Ackley love around to be insane. What makes him so god damn special??? What, because he has solid on-base skills? The guy has limited power potential and is a future outfielder. When reputable sources (ie Jim Callis) say that Ackley should be moved to the outfield, that carries more weight than the homers on this site that think “he looked alright at 2b” or “his defense is passable from what I saw”. For those of you that want to use his AFL numbers to argue his “power potential”, AFL means NOTHING, and you should know better.
The A- grade should be reserved for future stars and/or impact players. Right now Dustin Ackley has not shown the potential to be either of those. Its a shame that people continue to give him high grades and rankings based on the fact that he was a high draft pick. As far as I’m concerned, he has done jack shit this year to earn a A-.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
Ackley
You know, it’s a shame that every day when I come to this site there seems to be a new comment from you disparaging Dustin Ackley’s potential to develop from a college star to a major league star.
I’ve always been under the impression that prospect evaluation is part past performance, part present skill, part future potential. Why should Ackley have had to earn his A- this year specifically? Judging a player with such a heavy weight on one season’s performance seems foolhardy, let alone making significant downgrades based on a bad introduction to AA that was subsequently recovered from.
Further, you’re setting yourself up for a position where you have to actively root against Ackley in order to validate your over-the-top disparagement of him over the past several months. Why would you want to root against any player developing to his potential, unless he’s a direct rival of the team you support? Aren’t better players in the better interest of baseball? I wouldn’t want to be in that position.
From all accounts (some of it direct observation on my part), Ackley is a tremendous guy with a top-notch work ethic. Scouts, executives, and analysts alike have all put their weight behind his future. I understand bucking the consensus — it’s hugely valuable to discussion, obviously — but there’s got to be a point where you just defer.
Or, don’t defer, but sit quietly and wait to be validated. Not like anyone’s going to forget, at this point.
by Andy Stallings on Jan 4, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 18 recs
I think Dewey is amplifying the anti-Ackley noise this year
So everyone will forget about the Josh Thole > Carlos Santana noise from last year.
Next year, he’ll be saying that Jurickson Profar is a poor, constipated man’s Neifi Perez, very loudly and very often, so everyone will forget about this year’s anti-Ackley campaign.
by gogotabata on Jan 4, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 8 recs
Josh Thole = MWP
Future NL Batting Champ.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
Thole is solid, but no Santana or Ackley
Thole was worth 1.4 WAR this year in only 73 games. He’ll do alright. Your mistake was not believing more in Santana. Thole will never be that good.
Funny thing though is, Ackley is actually a somewhat similar style of hitter to Thole, but with more power, more dicipline, and with speed. He has better bat speed as well. And, while Callis thinks he should end up in the outfield, he also still thinks he’s one of the top prospects in baseball.
I saw Ackley play a few times late in the year in Tacoma
And he looked decent at 2B, the only problem was a slowish reaction and that should come in time. I think he’ll have no problem sticking at 2B.
First of all, I'm flattered that you are a dedicated reader of my workm thank you.
As for your ‘shame’ comment, you do need to realize that this is a message board for minor league prospect discussion. Opinions are welcome here, and its no secret that I’ve made mine quite clear. If you have a problem with it, I don’t know what to suggest. Either ignore it, accept it, or cry about it.
You said “Why should Ackley have to earn his -A this year specifically?”
Do you understand how significant an A- grade is? As far as I’m concerned, grades do need to be earned. Otherwise half of the minor leaguers are worthy of a A- grade because they have a limited skillset and mediocre performance (much like Ackley). I suggested a B grade because Ackley has demonstrated that he is a decent prospect, but not a great one. A “B” grade is not insulting. It means there is room for growth, which Ackley definitely has. Why is he an A- already when he really has done much?!?! Its an insult to other deserving prospects of the grade.
As for rooting against Ackley, that’s really not the case at all. I have no ill will towards the kid. I’m just trying to open peoples eyes that Ackley has gotten more credit than he deserves at this point. He’s getting the praise of a great prospect, but he really hasn’t shown it. I’m sure he is a nice guy that tries really hard, but that does not mean he is suddenly gonna develop talent.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
I don't agree with your opinion on Ackley but it's a perfectly reasonable one.
Too much groupthink almost everywhere. I wish more prospects had an array of opinions this diverse to them.
i agree with both dewey and john
i do not think ackley deserves an a-. as dewy out it, hes a good prospect, one every team would like to have, but hes not gonna be a star either. i think john has a hunch, which is why he mentioned borderline b+. this year will be very telling
ackley
Ackley….I spent a lot of time on that grade. I looked at the stats. I read every scouting report I could find. I watched video. I looked at my scouting notes from Arizona, and stuff I heard from PCL sources. Ultimately i came down on the positive side.
that's fine by me
im not the one slamming it. personally, the difference between an a- and b+ is negligable to me. we all have guys that we have gut feelings about, and of course you have access to much more info than most of us do, and you do this for a living. i’ll roll with your opinion…..
As far as earning a grade, I meant only that a grade is not earned in a single year. It seems reasonable to look at prospects as a complete package of performance (over several years) and projection. But you know that, I think. Just explaining myself.
And, ultimately, you’re right about all this. You’re not harming anyone — Ackley, me, anyone at all — by talking him down every time he comes up around here, whatever your motivations. After all, as you say, it is a minor league baseball message board. I don’t actually begrudge you the point at all.
What bothers me a little (and I’ll shut up about it myself after this) is that I come here for a more enlightened conversation about prospects than I can get elsewhere on the internet. I recognize that you’re trying to push the conversation forward, and you make good points. But to me, a good point is as much about presentation as about the point itself, and that’s where going overboard hurts.
by Andy Stallings on Jan 4, 2011 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
I understand your point to an extent
Dewey often goes on a tangent about Ackley in places where it isn’t always needed. However, comments about Ackley seem to be fair game in the Seattle Mariners thread.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh...
or cry about it.
You actually find that to be an acceptable option?
Do you understand how significant an A- grade is?
Either ignore it, accept it, or cry about it.
…
As far as I’m concerned, grades do need to be earned. Otherwise half of the minor leaguers are worthy of a A- grade because they have a limited skillset and mediocre performance (much like Ackley)… Why is he an A- already when he really has done much?!?! Its an insult to other deserving prospects of the grade.
Because not everybody is equal, believe it or not. If performance is so important to grade rankings, then you could take a guy in AA hitting .350 / .450 / .600 and declare him the best prospect in baseball. You’d be ignoring other contextual facts like he’s 35 years old., but that wouldn’t matter. If all you’re looking at is results and performance, then it doesn’t matter at all what skills or talents a player has.
Below, Da.aron does the Daric Barton comparison, and is quickly reminded that the players are not the same. They aren’t. They had similar stat lines, but they aren’t the same guy. A talented beast of a player can have a shit season but that doesn’t mean he deserves the same ranking as a shit player performing like shit because they are shit.
Eventually performance DOES have to come out. As in the case of Carlos Triunfel. He’s got the skills, but after x number of years, he’s becoming a huge disappointment. But he was given x number of years before someone started taking his performances against him. Now, maybe that’s wrong and you’ve got some incredible insight that Ackley’s performance in his first pro season is such a huge indication of his talent that his talent isn’t worth ranking highly. Then again, maybe you’re wrong. The problem is you’re not even allowing for the possibility that you are wrong to creep into your evaluation.
John pointed out that he is being admittedly optimistic, and that’s fine. You’re being pessimistic and not even being honest about it.
I’m just trying to open peoples eyes that Ackley has gotten more credit than he deserves at this point.
Pardon me for saying so, but who asked you? Did anybody ask you to become the source of enlightenment about Dustin Ackley? Are you trying to say that your wonderful altruistic behavior is supposed to be embraced and praise and clears you of all negativity? Maybe before you decide you’re doing the entire blog denizenship a favor you should figure out if it really is one.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 5, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
I hate this policing
You stated:
Pardon me for saying so, but who asked you? Did anybody ask you to become the source of enlightenment about Dustin Ackley?
Mr. Sickels stated:
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to.
People need to lighten up. Ackley is allowed to be discussed both positively and negatively.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Jan 5, 2011 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
I'll never understand why some people, more specifically homers, lets themselves get so worked up
over another man’s opinion about a baseball player on an internet message board.
CALM DOWN
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Jan 5, 2011 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
It's the only thing he talks about.
After a while, it’s just grows obnoxious and merely makes him look like some troll. I’m able to say that and I haven’t even been a member here that long. Literally, he finds a way to mention it in each and every thread I’ve ever read on this site.
Its the only thing he talks about?
That is just factually not true. Dewey posts in numerous threads here, but I have a feeling that you only read the Mariners threads.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
by King Billy Royal on Jan 6, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Its a disease KBR
Called Mariners Homerism. Its a form of dementia.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
Its a shame
Yes, because shame is something that s/b invoked here. The U.S. poverty rate is a shame. Ackley praise is not.
by blackoutyears on Jan 4, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
He's yet to stay healthy for a full season.
Kind of shoots that whole “college relievers are good draft picks because they can reach the majors quickly and make an immediate impact” theory to shit.
That doesn’t completely diminish his potential though. He showed up in the AFL. Unless there is a current injury that directly jeopardizes his future, that isn’t good enough reason to omit him as a prospect. I know John tore up the AFL this year, so I imagine he has his reasons for omitting Fields. I’m just wondering what those reasons are.
Not completely, but it dims his star considerably..
Especially given that when Fields has actually been able to take the mound he hasn’t pitched well. He’s walked just over 6 per 9 during his minor league career and has never appeared to be the lights-out late-inning reliever the Ms thought they were drafting.
Dan Cortes, Josh Lueke, and even Stephen Pryor are all better relief prospects at this point than Fields. He could change some minds with a quality 2011, but a 25-year-old reliever with arm troubles who’s never displayed even passable control in Double-A isn’t going to get anyone excited, no matter his draft pedigree.
Me too.
Most underrated player in the system. I enjoy Connor Glassey’s work at BA quite a bit, but I think he completely whiffed on this one.
Another guy I like who gets absolutely no recognition is Matt Cerione. He’s my top pick for breakout candidate in the system this year.
Ackley, Pineda, Robles, and Cortes will graduate to the majors, so the other guys better step up.
The good news is that the M’s will add an ace starting pitcher in the draft and there are a few high ceiling guys here.
I’m so very interested to see where this system will be in a year. Will Matt Purke(?), and Franklin be the only top prospects in the system, or will they be joined by Walker, Pimental, Jones, Peguero, and Chavez?
I have confidence that guys like Seagar, Littlewood, and Tenbrink can and will be major league players, but probably nothing too special. I really hope Paxton signs and at least 2 of the 5 guys just mentioned above breakout in a big way.
Just for fun, I’d hazard a guess at the 2011 top 5:
1. Matt Purke/Gerritt Cole/Whoever is the draft pick.
2. Nick Franklin. Holds his own with the bat and glove in West Tenn (spends little or no time at High Desert)
3. James Jones. Smashes and finishes in AAA Tacoma.
4. Paxton signs and impresses everybody.
5. Littlewood plays up to his potential.
Sleeper for top 10 next year: Brendol Perez
I know John doesn’t rank DSL guys except in a very small number of cases, but Perez could vault up the rankings next year if the Mariners bring him stateside. If anybody hasn’t hear of him, just check out the numbers he put up as a 16 year old. He’s got great size and projectability, so keep an eye on him next year
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=593810
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/
great numbers
especially for a 17 year old. do have any info on the repertoire he has?
Only seen one report
http://prospectinsider.com/view/lat-am-top-11/
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/
definitely an interesting follow
if he can add some mph, look out.
Not sure a guy with mid-80s heat is really a sleeper.
Perez needs to add 3-6 mph on the fastball. He’s young and big, so it could happen, but a lot of guys never find that added velocity. One to keep an eye on, sure, but he doesn’t have anything even closely resembling a major league arm yet.
2011 Top 5
I was thinking about this a couple days ago, so I’ll post my top 5 here for 2011 since it’s a little different
1. Nick Franklin
2. Guillermo Pimentel
3. Taijuan Walker
4. Ji-Man Choi
5. Esteilon Peguero
I’d probably slot whoever we draft in 2011 at number 2, unless it’s Rendon (he’d be number one). I’m optimistic Franklin will stay at shortstop and should get a fair amount of playing time in AA this next year
I think you mean 2012?
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jan 5, 2011 1:44 AM EST up reply actions
So much can change in a year...
that this is a total fool’s errand. That said, this list is basically betting on breakouts from three incredibly raw players. If I were a betting man I’d have no problems putting 100:1 odds against these five players comprising any rational observer’s Ms top-5 (or even top-6, accounting for the mystery 2011 #2 pick) a year from now, in any order.
Also, a lot can change before the draft, but as of today, I’d rank Rendon, Cole, Purke, and probably Jungmann, Gray, Barnes, and Springer well ahead of Franklin. All these players have upside that Franklin can’t hope to match, even with 2010’s astonishing power display. Franklin is a nice prospect, but not the kind of prospect that should be considered ahead of anyone talented enough to be in the discussion for 2nd-best prospect in a very good draft class
If I were a betting man I’d have no problems putting 100:1 odds against these five players comprising any rational observer’s Ms top-5
That said, the one talent evaluator who could give me pause is Kevin Goldstein. I can pretty much guarantee Esteilon Peguero will be in KG’s Ms top-5 next year no matter what he does on the field. I have a great deal of respect for the man generally, but at this point I just mentally delete recent international bonus babies from his lists.
The only one I'm going out on a limb for here is Choi
Probably Franklin as well. Walker, Pimentel, and Peguero are already on many people’s top 5 list right now. So while it’s correct that anything can happen in a year from now, as of right now I definitely think this is a rational top 5 for next year
Yeah...
raw guys who haven’t played yet often get an unjustified bump in systems like this, since they’re 100% potential, and hey, who can say they won’t reach it? I think it’s a silly approach to prospect ranking, and I wouldn’t have Pimentel or Walker (especially Pimentel, whose only projected plus tool is power, with all others grading below average) in the Ms top 10, but some people follow it.
It’s much more rare for a system to have all three of these guys make the kind of huge leap forward in their first experience in affiliated ball that will keep them in the top 5 a year later.* I expect Walker to split time between middle relief and short starts in 2011 to build arm strength – likely topping out at 80-100 IP, if that. Nothing about Pimentel’s 2010 season suggested he was ready for a full-season assignment, so chances are we won’t see him until June next year. Peguero will also likely start in Pulaski.
*Again, the caveat to this statement is that Esteilon Peguero will likely have a spot reserved for him in KG’s top-5 if he does nothing more than show up to extended spring training.
i am a little surprised pineda got a straight A
i have little doubt he will be a good pitcher (not great), but i’d want my straight A pitchers to have little or no flaws. Pineda still needs to work on getting LH batters out at a better rate.
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i dont think there are many of those players out there though
they’ve all got flaws, which is why theyre still in the minors. i thought the same thing you did until i read his description of what a ratings mean. pineda falls in line with that
wow
It’s bad news when you go through the “whos who” of Mariners prospects from 2 years ago and they are all now in the “Others of Note” pile.
This group seems scary bad. But heh. The White Sox are yet to come and if any team can make your prospects look good, it’s the White Sox!
Im not sure that 2 of the top 15 prospects in the game, plus Nick Franklin would make any farm system "scary bad" no matter how empty the rest of the cupboard is.
But the rest of the cupboard isn’t empty… they’ve got 2 or 3 of the top latin american prospects in the game, a #2 pick coming, and several players who have only scratched surface.
This system might be ranked in the 20s, but it is very far away from “Scary bad”
by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 4, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Let me know
When the Mariners actually develop a hitter. They managed to take one of the most polished college hitters in recent memory and turn his bat into question mark. They kind of remind me of the A’s in this regard. You can draft or sign all sorts of toolsy talented hitters but if you don’t have the people in place to develop them nothings going to change. Pitchers on the other hand they do quite well with
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 4, 2011 9:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ever heard of Shin-Soo Choo?
Or Adam Jones? Both got virtually all of their minor league seasoning in Seattle. Choo is an All-Star level hitter, while Jones more than holds his own and plays a premium position.
A lot of teams have a bunch of guys that "could be something"
You need to have more guys that have shown they actually “are” something. This system has Ackley coming off a subpar year and Pineda coming off a great year. Then there’s Franklin who has question marks but it looks like he’s a good one. Then there’s just a bunch of “noise”.
By “scary bad”, I was more looking at the system top to bottom rather than comparing it to everyother system in MLB. I guess my point was more along the lines of seeing all the names in the “Others of Note” and seeing a lot of guys that used to be Top 10 or Top 20 in the organization. When a guy like Carlos Triunfel goes from being pretty much can’t miss to barely “Others of Note”…it brings up legitimate concerns.
Carlos Triunfel was never "cant miss"
As far as both replies regarding Ackley, I have no response. It’s all been said above. Its literally the dumbest conversation I’ve had repeatedly over and over again for the last 6 months and I’m not going to talk anymore about why Dustin Ackley isn’t coming off a bad year.
/Closed.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 5, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah.
Carlos Triunfel and “can’t miss” being written in the same sentence is one of the most bizarre things that’s ever happened on this site. Everyone understands latin american teenagers are the riskiest prospects in baseball.
pick a player
Player A: Age 21 136 games .145 ISO 12.9% BB/PA 11.4% K/PA
78BB 69 K .293 /.389/.438 /.827 38 2B 5 3B 9 HR 3 SB AAA PCL
played 1B and 3B this year and has previous experience at OF and C
Player B: Age 22 134 games .139 ISO 12.7 BB/PA 13.5% K/PA
75BB 79K .267/.368/.407/.775 33 2B 8 3B 7 HR 10 SB 2 leagues AA Southern AAA PCL
played 2B this year and has previous experience at OF and 1B
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
Im not knocking Barton
I have no problems with his useful bat its just too bad the A’s have no one to drive him home I find Both these guys very similar at the plate Would Bartons numbers be enough to satisfy the expectations of Mariners fans I know Barton has frustrated some A’s fans
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 4, 2011 10:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
I’ll take a near .400 obp from 2B any day of the week
I'll take a .400 obp from anyone
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jan 5, 2011 1:44 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The key
there is “at 2B”. What is frustrating about Barton is he doesn’t have the opwer to play 1B. He was supposed to have power, but it hasn’t yet developed. I think this year might be a breakout year for him, but if he can’t hit for more power, he might not be able to hold onto 1B for very long in the AL.
Ackley’s bat has a higher upside only because it’s at 2B where an average bat will play. If Ackley gets moved to the outfield, that would be bad news for him if he can’t even muster up 10HRs a season.
But, I don’t mean to sound like a nay sayer. I think both these guys are prime candidates for a bounce back this season.
+1
If I was convinced Ackley sticks at 2B, I’d be much higher on him. I think the glove at 2B is a big reason why most are skeptical of him.
I might be
In the minority that thinks Ackley would be better in LF. With the spacious OF at Safeco you need a guy who can cover ground and if Ackley could turn his speed into range he could be valuable there. I also think that Safeco should allow him and his speed to crank out plenty if XBH just not homers. And with the other MI guys the Ms got this is where Ackley would benefit them most
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 5, 2011 10:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
In Safeco
You almost need a second CF in LF
Bad memories of Raul Ibanez
by Flamefox111 on Jan 5, 2011 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Barton had the 12th highest wOBA of regular 1Bs last year.
He’s an above-average stick at the position, and a well above average glove.
If Ackley puts up Barton’s offense, he’ll be hugely valuable at LF or 1B, and almost MVP-level if he sticks at 2B.
It's all about perception
If you can’t hit dingers at 1B, you’re not a good 1B.
Rooting for lovable losers since 1984.
by seattlecougar on Jan 7, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
did you
make up A? I have no clue who that is.
by another know it all on Jan 4, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
nvm
that’s an odd comparison to make…
by another know it all on Jan 4, 2011 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Why
The numbers look very comparable to me and that was Bartons worst full year in the minors. In terms of approach and power Barton and Ackley are basically clones.
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 4, 2011 10:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Way too many differences between the two players
Barton plays amazing defense while Ackley has been described from poor to average.
Ackley has blazing speed while Barton isn’t too quick.
Ackley is a 2B/OF type while Barton is a 1B.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
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by King Billy Royal on Jan 4, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just comparing
The sticks here I’m aware of the differences outside the batters box
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Jan 4, 2011 10:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I thought this was an interesting comparison
But I also think one of the more interesting and surprising features of Barton’s development has been the quality of his 1B defense. To be honest, I think this is one of the bigger unknowns in the current generation of young Mariner recruits. If like Barton, Ackley continues to develop his run prevention tool, his power or lack thereof diminishes in importance.
"1) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade A"
Whoa…
I’ve said before that the ranking of Ackley, Pineda, and Franklin is irrelevant because they’re all good and by far the top 3 best prospects on the Mariners’ farm, but I’m not sure I’d have given him a straight A. He’s still got to figure out how to reliably get left handers out. I agree that Pineda is exciting and I would be thrilled if he becomes everything we hope, but right now he’s still got at least that question mark.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 4, 2011 11:42 PM EST reply actions
I agree
I was thinking A- for Michael , you also factor in how he wore down a little bit at the end of this past year and you ask yourself, " more tired arms in the future/ horizon or possibly something greater like Stress Fracture or injury of some sort?"
I’m on the side that he’s completely healthy and will never need to be shut down before a season is out again, so long the M’s watch the innings pitch a little bit.
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 4, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Not too worried about the tired issue.
After missing most of a year due to an elbow problem that has not apparently produced long term concerns, tiring out towards the end of nearly 140 innings is acceptable, I think. It’s not something to completely ignore either.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 5, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
The Grade A ranking is super-aggressive.
I don’t like it at all. People are treating Pineda like he’s major league ready today. He’s not. He’s a high upside guy who, if he doesn’t make significant improvements from 2010, is probably no more than a back-end starter right now due to his troubles vs. lefties. When Double-A and Triple-A lefthanded hitters are OPSing .750 against the kid, I shudder to think what will happen when he goes up against a lineup filled with quality lefties like Minnesota’s (Span-Mauer-Morneau-Kubel-maybe Thome in quick succession…ouch).
That said, Pineda’s shown an ability to make substantial improvements both season to season and game-to-game, so there’s definitely a chance for him to show up with a new and improved change this spring. I certainly wouldn’t be confident enough in that happening to give him a straight A grade, though.
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