Community Positional Prospect #48 Runoff
by gatling on Jan 31, 2011 11:54 AM EST
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Over 47 votes, we have three players separated by two votes. We go to a runoff.
CANDIDATES:
Nolan Arenado
Christian Colon
Travis d'Arnaud
- #01 - MIKE TROUT - 48.0%
- #02 - BRYCE HARPER - 38.1%
- #03 - DOMONIC BROWN - 30.1% (53.3%)
- #04 - JESUS MONTERO - 47.9%
- #05 - ERIC HOSMER - 35.9%
- #06 - DUSTIN ACKLEY - 37.7% (52.5%)
- #07 - WIL MYERS - 60.5%
- #08 - MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 58.8%
- #09 - DESMOND JENNINGS - 46.4%
- #10 - BRANDON BELT - 42.0%
- #11 - FREDDIE FREEMAN - 46.2%
- #12 - MANNY MACHADO - 50.0%
- #13 - BRETT LAWRIE - 40.5%
- #14 - AARON HICKS - 35.3%
- #15 - NICK FRANKLIN - 27.8% (55%)
- #16 - BRETT JACKSON - 28% (50.7%)
- #17 - LONNIE CHISENHALL - 36.2%
- #18 - DEVIN MESORACO - 32.1% (51.4%)
- #19 - DEREK NORRIS - 41.4%
- #20 - GARY SANCHEZ - 19.5% (49.2%)
- #21 - GRANT GREEN - 27.0%
- #22 - WILMER FLORES - 24.3%
- #23 - DANNY ESPINOSA - 31.5%
- #24 - JASON KIPNIS - 31.7%
- #25 - MIGUEL SANO - 33.3%
- #26 - WILIN ROSARIO - 30.8%
- #27 - CHRIS CARTER - 21.0% (37.7%)
- #28 - HANK CONGER - 30.2%
- #29 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 29.0%
- #30 - JONATHAN SINGLETON - 45.4%
- #31 - DEE GORDON - 27.1%
- #32 - JEAN SEGURA - 22.2% (52.4%)
- #33 - MATT DOMINGUEZ - 23.4% (62.9%)
- #34 - JAFF DECKER - 28.6%
- #35 - BILLY HAMILTON - 20.8%
- #36 - YONDER ALONSO - 27.3%
- #37 - TONY SANCHEZ - 19.4% (54.9%)
- #38 - JERRY SANDS - 26.4%
- #39 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 27.1% (60.8%)
- #40 - CARLOS PEREZ - 31.7%
- #41 - TRAYVON ROBINSON - 23.7%
- #42 - J.P. ARENCIBIA - 29.1%
- #43 - JOSH SALE - 25%
- #44 - MICHAEL CHOICE - 20.8% (37.7%)
- #45 - JOSE IGLESIAS - 31.9%
- #46 - NICK CASTELLANOS - 28.0%
- #47 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 25.0% (45.5%)
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that is a cop out answer
yeah he doesn’t walk alot (less than 5%), but he doesn’t strike out that much either and makes a ton of contact (86%). he was 19 in the Sally and arguably one of the top two hitters. Klaw thinks he can stay at 3rd due to his work ethic – although he won’t make all the plays.
more from Klaw
To stay at third base, he’ll have to do everything right with his upper body to make up for what his lower half prevents him from getting, but he seems to have the work ethic and makeup to do it.
i don't call those good odds.
he’s in my top 100, but barely, so i’m not saying this isn’t a good spot for him… but i’m not so sure he’s a 3B or he’s anything more than another Vitters with that plate kind of plate discipline.
That's nice
but BA didn’t sound very confident he would stick at 3rd, saying in his latest scouting report that it looks like he is the heir apparent to Helton at 1st. Mediocre plate discipline and a future move to 1st doesn’t excite me.
You wanted a case as to why he doesn’t win this “hands down” and I gave it to you.
I'd say both he and D'Arnaud are about as likely to move to first by the time they're MLB players
and with both it’s relatively likely, D’Arnaud’s back issues, whether he’s healthy now or not, could recur if he stays behind the plate, and I don’t think he’s enough of a defensive value there to make it worth it for the Blue Jays to keep him there since they have so many other options and his bat is good enough to play elsewhere. Given that Arenado’s a step or two ahead developmentally than D’Arnaud was at the same age (more extra base hits in 100 fewer PA’s at the same level while a year younger) and has a clearer path to the majors, I think he’s the better prospect right now, and that’s not just my bias speaking. With Colon, it’s a little trickier, as he’s at a premium position and likely to stick there, which gives him a lot of value over the other two right away, but he’s not that great either offensively or defensively, and has less of a chance of being an All-Star level, impact player. Still, I can see the logical argument for him over Arenado, with D’Arnaud, it’s a little more far fetched.
He hasn't seen much progress in turning those tools into a plus skill
and that starts to be an issue given that he’s going to be at AA this season. The layoff with the back injury didn’t help. If you want him to sit in the minors for two or three more seasons to develop his catching skills, fine (and this may be what the Jays decide to do, given their current catcher situation) but I think that would lower his prospect status, not raise it.
You certainly seem much more down on his defense than anyone else
Defensively, he has a plus arm and threw out 30 percent of basestealers in high Class A in 2010. He sometimes rushes his throws, which affects his accuracy. He has quick feet and the athleticism and agility to stay behind the plate.
-BA
Like Arencibia, he’s strong-armed and more athletic than most catchers, and is already at least an average defender, with the potential to become even more than that.
-KG
Defense: Quick and agile behind the plate, I saw no visible holes in his all-around defensive game. With the Sand Gnats boasting little in terms of speed, D’Arnaud’s arm went relatively untested. Where the young catcher excelled was in his ability to handle his pitching staff. D’Arnaud’s body language and actions demanded respect and he received it from his staff. He was an integral part of Matthew Way dominating for eight scoreless innings and used stellar game management skills to help Heitor Correa fight through five innings of one run baseball. As a former catcher viewing from the stands, I always find myself finding moments where the game is mismanaged behind the plate. With D’Arnaud, this did not happen.
-Mike Newman
On defense, he’s a true catch-and-throw guy with a 60 arm, great hands and good rapport with pitchers.
-Keith Law
I don’t see any reason to dock him for his defense. I would put the odds of him being a plus defender at catcher much higher than I would Arenado sticking at 3B.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Clearly I am down on it relatively, I think I'm right, though. It's mostly due to the lost time with injuries and I'm less sanguine
about continuing to project plus future defensive ability given that his current ability is average. His arm is fine, his timing’s off, and my own guess is that “catch-and-throw” bit without adequate footwork might have led to or exacerbated the stress fracture in his back. He’s going to have to go back and fix that, and it’s going to take time. For this reason, I think projecting even above average defense as a catcher might be a stretch.
I think his bat should be able to move to a corner fine, particularly if he’s indeed found more power, and I think given the Jays situation, with Arencibia and Perez also being decent behind the plate, Perez especially, it probably would be the preferable course for them to move d’Arnaud to where they would get the most value from him.
Colon could be a great defender at 2nd base
He has a great glove, his problem has been fringe range to stick at shortstop. Goldstein has said he could be a Gold Glover at 2nd. I also think you are underselling Colon’s relative offensive value at 2nd base.
Point remains, I have Colon ahead of Arenado by a decent margin.
I think this future where a dozen or so players win gold gloves at each position every year
is sort of like the one that has hovercars. I can’t wait for hovercars.
At any rate, if you’re seeing Colon at second in the future, I have a harder time seeing him ahead of Arenado, because he’s not nearly as valuable offensively there, I think you might be overrating his offensive potential, and if range is his issue at short, it won’t get much better on the other side of the keystone.
Above average offense and defense at a premium position
is much more valuable than questionable offense at the least important position on the diamond.
Guess we’ll just agree to disagree here.
yeah, I think we may have to,
I see Colon’s projected MLB offense as more questionable than either Arenado or d’Arnaud right now, but I may be underestimating him because Wilmington saps right handed bats. Right now I’m kind of operating under the assumption that he won’t hit for much power at the MLB level, no more than 10 HR’s, but I’m leaving it open that this is low. I want to see what kind of power numbers he puts up in the Texas League, where I’m more comfortable projecting from.
At any rate, what I’m left with is a good glove, BABIP driven high average, moderate OBP, low SLG second baseman or possibly a shortstop, somebody a lot like the Royals’ current 2B Aviles, or Jeff Keppinger. He’d be a valuable player, especially in the cost controlled years, but he’d be a player that you’d make room for if something better came along.
Arenado’s offense is similar in the K and BB percentages but he has considerably more power potential, and he could be a Kendry Morales type at first with minimal improvement in his plate discipline, I think that’s less questionable on offense than you assert. Like I said, though, I could see an argument that puts Colon ahead if people think that Wilmington masked some of his power and they think he’ll stick at short.
+1
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by tj.hendricks on Jan 31, 2011 2:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
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D'Arnaud supposedly back, healthy, and with more power
Only question for me with him is his contact rates, floor is a solid backup MLB catcher with pop and I like him to be better than Arencibia. I personally have Jimenez over both of them but it’s a very rare view.
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