Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2011.
by John Sickels on Jan 3, 2011 11:01 AM EST
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PrintAll grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2011
1) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Grade B+: This grade is actually conservative; if he lives up to full potential it will be an A- or even an A soon enough. Future number one starter if all goes according to plan.
2) Stetson Allie, RHP, Grade B: Like Taillon, this is a conservative grade until we see him in action. Number one starter potential, or perhaps a power closer.
3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: If injuries don't get in the way, I still expect him to be a very good starting major league catcher.
4) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade B: Harder to be skeptical now with a strong Double-A season under his belt. Looks like a future number three starter.
5) Luis Heredia, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. Very hard to rank international players with great scouting reports but nothing objective to go on. Reports indicate future number one starter potential, but a long way away. Remember Michael Ynoa.
6) Jeff Locke, LHP, Grade B-: Like Owens, a number three or four starter though I don't like Locke quite as much.
7) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade B-: Few relievers offer this combination of velocity and control, but scouts wonder if his breaking stuff is good enough for him to close.
8) Zach "The Junker" Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: Although I don't like the low strikeout rate in the NY-P, I buy into his projectability.
9) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade B-: I seem to like him more than other people do, although he does need to lower his walk rate.
10) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Can hit for average, dangerous on the bases, but lack of strike zone judgment and home run power are issues.
11) Bryan Morris, RHP, Grade C+: I don't like him as much as other people do. He looks like a number four starter to me, and I prefer the southpaw candidates.
12) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Very projectable, still learning what he's doing, grade could rise easily this year.
13) Brock Holt, INF, Grade C+: Played great before he got hurt. One of several future 2B-SS utility types in the system.
14) Nick Kingham, RHP, Grade C+: Projectable right-hander out of high school in Nevada, looks like a breakthrough possibility this year or next.
15) Tony Watson, LHP, Grade C+: Overshadowed by the other pitchability lefties but could sneak into majors in '11 and surprise people.
16) Evan Chambers, OF, Grade C: Short, but athletic and strong, draws tons of walks, if anything is too passive. If he can add a bit more aggressiveness to his approach, could break out big.
17) Zach Dodson, LHP, Grade C: Another young but raw pitcher with good projection.
18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Great glove, but bat is stagnant.
19) Mel Rojas, Jr., OF, Grade C: Great tools, couldn't hit in the New York-Penn League.
20) Chase d'Arnaud, SS, Grade C: Double-A season brought mixed results, still has a chance to be more than a utility player.
OTHERS OF NOTE: Tim Alderson, RHP; Eric Avila, 3B; Nate Baker, LHP; Jorge Bishop, 2B; Victor Black, RHP; Exicardo Cayonez, OF; Jarek Cunningham, 2B; Matt Curry, 1B; Brian Friday, INF; Robbie Grossman, OF; Josh Harrison, INF; Phil Irwin, RHP; Andrew Lambo, OF; Quincy Latimore, OF; Kyle McPherson, RHP; Jordy Mercer, INF; Quinton Miller, RHP; Daniel Moskos, LHP; Alex Presley, OF; Trent Stevenson, RHP.
While there is a lot of Grade C+/C in this system, I like the trends here and I think they are on the right track.
Pitching is the focus: there is a foundation of an excellent pitching staff here, with Taillon, Allie, and Heredia all potential aces and a large number of guys who project as number three or four starters behind them. Of course, some (many) of these guys will get hurt or not pan out, but gathering as many arms as possible is a viable strategy that should pay dividends.
Hitting is a different matter. There are no surefire stars here. Sanchez should be solid, but after him you have some high risk tools guys, mixed in with future role players. They have a lot of options for future utility infielders.
Overall, the system could use more hitting but I like what they are doing on the pitching side.
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That Moskos pick still hurts
I liked a lot of the Pirates recent trades dealing vets for younger players, but it seems a lot of them (Milledge, Alderson, Gorkys, Clement) haven’t really panned out. Still, I like what they’re doing with the draft – I would expect many of their prospects to take big steps forward next year and if that happens, this could be an Top 10 system for sure. Its definitely pitching heavy though.
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A couple of minor disagreements here and there, but these grades are similar to mine
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Josh Rodriguez
Was hoping to hear a little blurb about the Rule 5 pick. I had read somewhere that it was likely he could stick as a backup middle infielder.
Can the guy hit at all?
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I’d have both Marte and Morris as B-
Morris’ numbers might not have set the world on fire but the scouting reports this year were very positive.
+1
I think he’s an easy B-. I don’t see how someone like ZVR is above him right now.
ZVR is if I remember...
a personal favorite of his and he has a good amount of potential. The low strikeout rate is probably because the Pirates focus purely on fastball command at the lower levels of the minors so it is hard to dominate unless you have the big time fastball. I wouldn’t complain about him being higher, but Locke and Wilson have no reason to be higher.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
This is the Pirates
So I wouldn’t be surprised if they get even a mid rotation starter out of that top three.
My money’s on Taillon of course, but once again this is the Pirates.
You never know though. Maybe they could get him for some guy in two or three seasons from the Cubs.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.
Correction
Maybe they could trade him for some guy.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.
This is the Pirates
In the recent past, they have had bad coaches ruin pitching prospects. They have had many injured pitchers who failed to develop because of their injuries.
But there is nothing about the Pirates that causes pitching injuries or pitching flops. Raw pitching talent has too many hurdles to pass before it produces successful major leaguers. This is why over loading the development system makes sense: It improves the probability rate for putting together a strong staff.
s.zielinski
Bryan Morris needs more love
Good pitching prospect, atleast a B.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
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I agree...
Rudy Owens is getting too much hype and Morris isn’t getting close to enough. I guess we will just have to wait until they get to the majors and Owens shows that he is more of a back end guy and Morris pitches like a mid rotation guy(#3).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I totally agree
Morris will probably settle into a mid rotation type arm, but I really do believe he has the stuff to be a #2. I think he is very underrated.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
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not really
Just speaking about Morris here, I see a guy with a decent fastball, two solid but erratic breaking balls, a changeup that rates anywhere from non-existent to below-average, and command that will end up as no better than major league average if that. Left-handed batters will probably torch him as a starting pitcher, and the lack of consistency and command means he probably won’t be all that great against right-handed batters, either. Better to play him in the pen where his stuff should play up a bit and his weaknesses won’t be quite as exposed.
I’d gladly take Owens – his stuff might not be as lively as what Morris offers, but his pitch mix and command are better suited to starting. Neither might be more than a No. 4 starter, but Owens has the better chance of getting to that level of performance and staying there. Morris might be a little more versatile, though, as he’d most likely profile better out of the pen than Owens.
Morris misses bats...
and calling his fastball only decent is severely underrating him. From seeing him, I would rate his fastball as borderline plus, his slider as above average, and his change as a work in progress though I could see it eventually becoming average. He needs work on his command, but he still has enough to miss bats in the majors RIGHT NOW.
Owens is a lefty with a fringe average fastball and an average breaking ball. He does have borderline plus command and what many call a plus change. That sounds like a #4 with an outside chance at having a few seasons where he is better the defense behind him is good. My main reason for chooing Morris is simple. Morris is a potential strike out front end guy and Owens is a groundball pitcher that will need a strong defense to be good. I am an Owens fan, I just think many overrate him and underrate Morris.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
morris
A plus fastball, an above-average breaking ball, an average changeup and average command is not a No. 3 starter. And that’s relying on some projection to get those last two up to par.
Not every guy is a No. 3 starter, because it takes a lot to be a No. 3 starter. Even No. 3 starters usually have two plus pitches to go with above-average command, or a 70 pitch (usually a fastball) to go with average command.
I think you are overstating what it takes to be a #3 starter...
that sounds like a pretty average #3 guy to me. It all depends how he puts it together, but that stuff stuff is good enough to be a #3 starter. Owens’ stuff is not any better and he has no 70 pitch to go along with his plus command. They both are likely to be #3 or #4 guys for at least some of their career(barring injury or breakdown) but Morris has a chance to be more.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I don't think I am
The standards are very high for major league starting pitchers. Morris might have the upside of a No. 3 starter if things break right for him, but realistically we’re looking at a future No. 4 starter. Guys with average command and one plus pitch aren’t anything special.
I know it's a little old...
and I would set the bar a little higher accordingly, but that would still have a #3 starter as having a 3.75-4.10 ERA. I think Morris is easily capable of that and Owens has a chance to do it once or twice, but since he will be so reliant on a good defense to hve good numbers, I doubt he does it too often. Morris is a strikeout pitcher with a plus fastball to set up a pretty good strike out pitch. I also haven’t mentioned that he has shown improved command this year(it does need work but few minor leaguers dont need work on their command). Yes, a guy with average command and one plus pitch isn’t special, but that is not all he has and saying that it is would be underrateding him.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
His description sounded just like Jorge De La Rosa, who just got paid 8 digits to be a #2 or 3. DLR might also have below avg. command to boot.
different story with DLR
His raw stuff is tremendous, with a fastball that averaged 93.4 MPH last year (per Fangraphs). You can count the number of LH starting pitchers in the majors who can throw that hard on just a couple of fingers. DLR’s command is erratic but slightly above-average on the whole, walks a few too many guys but an incredible number of swinging strikes. Both Morris and DLR are groundball pitchers, but of course it’s a big difference when you’re able to keep the ball on the ground against A-AA batters and when you’re doing the same in Colorado.
I can see an argument for Morris at B- if you think the combination of high BABIP and high GB rate at AA means he was unlucky, but he doesn’t sound much like DLR, whose average caliber of stuff is right about at Morris’ peak.
Mrkupe
Not trying to be rude, but how is that not a #3 starter.
By definition, a #3 starter should be some combination that comes out to average, if you factor in fastball, secondary pitches, command etc.
The only way this wouldn’t add up is if the 20-80 scale incorporates my and your (maybe I’m not giving you enough credit, but I might be able to hit 75) fastball as 20, not the worst fastball of any professional pitcher. If a 50 is a league average pitch, and a pitcher has 4 of them with average command, he’s going to be average.
If you look at FIP and say a guy with that stuff is a #4 or 5 starter (what I believe you are implying) then either hat guys stuff isn’t being accurately gauged or the metric is off.
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 4, 2011 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
No. 3 starters are not league average major league pitchers
You’re skewing the sample size. You can’t just incorporate the best players, you have to include the fringe types who make up a significant percentage of MLBers. Just as a position player who is regarded as major league average across the board is not graded by the standards of major league starting players but by the combined standards of all MLBers (including bench players), so it goes with pitchers.
Fair Point
I was having trouble wrapping my head around it for a second.
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 8, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
it's cool
I want to make it clear that I don’t dislike Morris. I track down any video I can find on these guys before saying things about them. It’d be nice to see these guys in action in person, but obviously that is not doable for me in many situations.
Morris is an intriguing young arm who I think has the potential to contribute in several different ways. I do like him, but – and this is a really important point that I tend to think gets lost a lot of the time – it’s okay to really like a player and yet think that he is somewhat limited in upside. I can think of players that I think have the raw potential to be No. 1 starters and yet I don’t really care that much for them. I can also think of players that I really like, even if I don’t see them as more than useful MLB bench pieces, back-end starters, or relief arms.
A pitcher with 4 average pitches likely has above average stuff
Considering most pitchers have less than 4 average pitchers, that forces hitters to have to deal with that much more. Not that this is especially relevant, but just saying
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You're right, that's not a #3 starter
Sounds like a good #2 to me. There aren’t that many plus pitches out there…
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one plus pitch equals a No. 2 starter?
A player who profiles as a No. 1 starter has to have 2 plus-plus pitches to go with at least above-average command, so I’m not seeing that.
Morris is likely not going to be...
a #2 starter. I agree with that. He has a better chance than a guy like Owens who would have to add MPH on his fastball or gain Cliff Lee-esque control to be one though. I believe he could be a #3 guy. He has the stuff, he just needs a little more time in the minor. He easily has the most upside outside of the non-HS bonus baby guys we have drafted the last few years.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Owens
was getting pretty good grades on his FB this year wasn’t he? It sounded at least solid average, not fringy.
by blackoutyears on Jan 4, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Ehhh...
he was sitting at 88-90 for most of the year. He spots it well, but I would need to see more velocity to call it solid average. There were points where he sat low 90’s though and if he is able to maintain that over a full season I may have to start liking him a little more.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
There were points where he sat low 90’s
It sounded like more than “points”, or at least it must have been a string of points (stretches?), so I’m a little more sanguine. He’s a LHP as well, and after watching Travis Wood spot a FB that sat 89-91 and topped out at about 92 I can tell you that’s plenty of velo if you have advanced command and decent secondaries.
by blackoutyears on Jan 4, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
Dying to see what Taillon does with his 3 plus pitches in the minors.
Possible video gm type numbers.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
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Quick question Dewey
If you were to be forced to pick between the two over the long term, than who would you take?
Taillon or Shelby Miller?
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.
that's tough, but I have a slight lean towards Taillon
He has a rare combination of high 90s heat and two plus secondary pitches. You don’t see an arm like this come around too often. Obviously there is a lot of risk with pitchers, so lots can go wrong. Miller has the minor league numbers right now to support his case, but based on just ceiling and ultimate potential, I’ll go with JT.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
The Wolfpac is looking for new soldiers! Change your logo to the black and red!!!
If
Taillon were to have the exact same season as Miller just had in Low-A(ie similar strikeout rate/walk rate etc.) would your opinion stay the same. And continue to favor upside alone.
And mind you I don’t think that the “upside quotient”™ between the two is that stark.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.
I don't think the difference between the two is much at all to be honest.
Both are top tier pitching prospects. Perhaps I’m a victim of SNTS, but the scouting reports on Taillon have been incredible. Not to discount Miller’s stuff, but I think Taillon has a better arsenal to work with.
Now if they have the exact same season in Low A as you’ve suggested, from a statistical standpoint, I would not be able to make the argument that Taillon is indeed better. However, that’s where I think the scouting reports would play a significant role to determine who is the better pitching prospect.
My Top 20 ranking will be posted soon, and for now, I have Taillon ahead of Miller by a hair.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
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Alderson?
Why has Alderson dropped so much? He was a really good pitching prospect when he was in the Giants system
He was an overhyped pitching prospect who saw his velocity plummet
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by Jeff Reese on Jan 3, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
didnt he also have some weird pitching out of the stretch vs full windup issues?
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his mechanics are awful.
Until he can regain velocity he is a non prospect.
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 3, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW
I love this team’s future.
Dewey and KBR are just.......too........sweeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!!!!
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I'm much higher on a handful of players here.
In fact I would have to say this is my least favorite list so far. I would have Cain, Locke, Morris, Marte, and Owens all at B- or higher. Heredia needs to a be a B here and I think Taillion is an A-.
The future is getting brighter for the Pirates
Certainly, there is more work to be done, but if you consider what this list could/should look like in a year, it is exciting.
Obviously other teams will also be adding prospects in the next year like the Pirates will (through trades, the draft, and international signings) but when you consider the Pirates will
1. (almost certainly) lose no one of major impact to graduation – IIRC only Gorkys Hernandez has actually played in AAA from this list.
2. Add the top draft pick overall – Rendon is the favorite here, but Cole and Purke would be solid additions to any farm system, not to mention talent added in later rounds, a department in which the Pirates have done well in recently
3. (Most Likely) grab a few prospects at the trade deadline in exchange for some mediocre veterans – Not very exciting and the impact will be minimal, but I’m trying to be thorough
4. and (hopefully) see their plethora of young, high upside guys improve dramatically – names include Taillon, Allie, Heredia, Rosenberg, Cain, Stevenson, Dodson, Kingham, Grossman, Q. Miller, Cunningham, Cayonez, Bishop, Lakind etc.
it’s understandable to have at least a little hope.. right?
A note on point 4. Being a Pirates fan, I know their system the best. Maybe posters with a better league-wide information base could give me an idea on how solid this part of the Pirates farm system is compared to the rest of baseball. To elaborate more, I’m not referring guys like Taillon and Allie, who are already well-known prospects with high upside, but guys who are less-known, but could have become a top 100 prospect in the next 1-2 years. Basically, sleepers I guess. My guess would be the Pirates would rank near the top, albeit being pitching heavy, although I’m sure there are systems with riches of sleepers as well.
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 3, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions
Yes...
they have a TON of sleepers. That isn’t really a good thing though. When the sleepers start turning into real prospects is when you should get excited.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Chart
Ton of real prospects > Ton of sleepers > Ton of nothing. It could be worse and it has been.
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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 4, 2011 1:30 AM EST up reply actions
I think ome of these guys are underrated...
Lambo is easily a top 20 guy. Having Gorkys Hernandez above him is not a good ranking. I also think you are too low on Morris, D’arnaud, and Jarek Cunningham. I would also raise Tony Sanchez to B+ and Taillon to A-. Can’t really complain with either of those grades though. I think you are too high on Owens, Locke, Wilson, and Moreno by a lot. I personally would change Moreno to C+, move Owens down to B-, Morris up to B, D’arnaud to C+, and maybe Marte to B- though I’m not complaining with that grade.
Question is, is this a top 15 system? I think it just makes it.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I'm gonna have to really look into it...
I wa just going off the top of my head. There aren’t many good systems this year. For example, many people like the Red Sox system and I think the Pirates have a better one right now.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I give BOS a slight edge (#18 overall)
It’s also a system that is depth heavy, but I like the type of depth a bit more.
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I don't see it...
they have better depth, but I would take our top 3 guys over their number 1 guy. If they still had Kelly I would give it to them, but they on’t have any elite guys. I suppose it depends on how much you like certain guys, but I can’t see taking an average farm system like Boston over this one right now.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Taillon is better than anyone in that system
But Iglesias/Britton/Ranaudo/Allie/Sanchez are all B prospects that can be argued a lot of different ways. After that, I like Boston’s B- guys more (Cecchini and Workman in particular).
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Yea...
I would rate those B guys as Allie-Ranaudo-Sanchez-Iglesias-Britton(not too high on him yet). I think their B- guys are getting a little too much love. Cecchini needs to prove himself and I don’t really see the big deal about Workman yet. He seems like a future #4 guy to me and that is no better than what I see a guy like Jeff Locke doing.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I think Pittsburgh just misses top 15 (here is my ranks with that 250+ prospect list i posted about a month back)
SHS’ Accumulative minor league ranking 2010-11 (12-06-10)
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Toronto Blue Jays (b.lawrie coup)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Minnesota Twins
6. San Diego Padres (A-Gone deal)
7. New York Yankees
8. Cincinatti Reds
9. Texas Rangers
10. Anahiem Angels
11. Philedelphia Phillies
12. Los Angelos Dodgers
13. Chicago Cubs (good depth tho)
14. Seattle Mariners (undervalued?)
15. Cleveland Indians (great depth)
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
17. Colorado Rockies
18. Oakland Athletics
19. Washington Nationals
20. New York Mets
21. Arizona Diamondbacks (hmmm)
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Boston Red Sox (A-Gone trade)
24. St. Louis Cardinals
25. Houston Astros
26. Detroit Tigers
27. Baltimore Orioles
28. Chicage White Sox
29. Milwaukee Brewers (NO lawrie)
30. Florida Marlins
With this list, or my ranking system this is how it stacks up; but remember it doesn’t factor accountability for depth or an organizations philosophy/ track record for developing players.
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by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 3, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
i may not be bullish enough on Boston and one or two others....
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
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by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 3, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
I can't see the Cubs...
over them at this point, but that is probably just me. I am not high on some of their better pitching prospects. I can’t see Texas or Minnesota as high as you have them either. Both are higher than Pittsburgh, but I would move them down a little. Other than that I really like this list.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Well...
I think it comes down to how much you like Matzek. I personally don’t like him much at all, but I can see why some like him. I also don’t like their recent draft picks as much as some. Bettis and Parker are far from elite guys and I think Tago was the best guy drafted by them this year. I would give Parker and Bettis each a B-, Tago a B, Matzek a B, and Brothers and Nicasio each a B-. Brothers is nothing more than a relief pitcher and Nicasio needs another good year at AA for me to rank him above a B-. After that I don’t think they have much depth. I actually think a lot of their guys are overrated. Teams like Cleveland and Seattle are underrated(it has nothing to do with Ackley).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
My ratings:
Wilin Rosario B+
Tyler Matzek B
Nolan Arenado B
Peter Tago B
Kyle Parker B-
Charlie Blackmon B-
Christian Friedrich B-
Chad Bettis B-
Juan Nicasio B-
Rex Brothers B-
Albert Campos B-
Chris Nelson B-
Rosario is one of my highest B+s, and John is even higher on a lot of those B-s than I.
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I agree on most...
though I am not the biggest Chris Nelson fan and I like Arenado more than Rosario. Rosario is just barely better than Tony Sanchez in my opinion.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I must be about the only person on the planet who actually thinks Milwaukee made out better than Toronto in the Marcum trade
I guess it’s some combination of liking Marcum more than most and disliking Lawrie more than most.
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I think it was defensible from both sides
Marcum gets underrated, and Lawrie gets overrated. Toronto had starting pitchers to deal, and Milwaukee has made 2011 the priority. If you can blame Milwaukee for anything it’s that they now have virtually nothing in the minor leagues; they’re still not a favorite to win the division; and could be really bad once Fielder and Greinke leave.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I don't know about...
them not being the favorites. They have three top end guys to go along with a pretty damn good line up.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I'll take the Reds
Love that team. I see continued improvement from Stubbs, Bruce and Bailey this year. Their rotation may not be as good, but that lineup is excellent.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I am a Stubbs fan...
but I can’t see them keeping up with the Brewers this year. They had a lot go right for them last year to make it and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen two years in row. I expect them be at the top with the Cards for the next ten years, but next year I don’t expect them to be the top team. I LOVE Leake and Chapman going forward. I expect some growing pains from Chapman in the majors next year though. I expect Bruce to hit a couple more HRs but stay about the same on the whole. I see Stubbs turning into a quality CF. I wouldn’t expect to see Votto to put up the same numbers. They don’t have a major league option at C until one of Mesoraco or Grandal come up. SS is in a similar position, but they don’t have a potential future All Star on their way up at the position. There will likely be an injury from someone and there is almost no way Rolen plays like he did this year at his age. I was SHOCKED by his year this past year.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I expect some growing pains from Chapman
He’s starting the year in the ‘pen thanks to Rhodes’ departure, and I won’t be surprised if he’s there all year. I don’t see much in the way of growing pains unless he’s starting. Even as a reliever Chapman needs additional refinement, but he’s already demonstrated that he gets it. Now it’s about getting him in shape to pitch on conesecutive days.
As for the rest, your expectations for Bruce seem arbitrary, Stubbs is already a quality CF and it remains to be seen if he can take another step forward as a hitter (your Bruce comment applies much better to Stubbs actually), Votto doesn’t have to scale those heights to maintain similar value, the return of the Hernandez/Hanigan platoon is perfectly acceptable and I’d review their combined stats in comaprison to league average for the position if I were you, Janish is not only not a drop off from Cabrera but is likely an improvement, and the team did just fine as Rolen tapered off offensively in the second half (the “year” that shocked you was actually a strong first half) and his value is greatly tied to his being healthy enough to provide his standard defense. No one is fooling themselves that there wasn’t some luck involved in the Reds success, but we’re a young team that’s returning almost completely intact. Every team has question marks, but I find it interesting that the one’s which most informed fans have (dependence on a still youthful rotation, CoCo’s decline) are nowehre in evidence in your post.
by blackoutyears on Jan 5, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
LF
is obviously the other looming question for most Reds fans, Gomes not seeming to be the best answer. I certainly wouldn’t presume to lecture you on the Pirates merits/demerits.
by blackoutyears on Jan 5, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
LF
Some combination of Heisey/Frazier/Francisco should be able to handle LF adequately. I’d lean towards Heisey.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Heisey
has become popular outside Cincinnati, due in no small part to support from Fangraphs and similar outlets this year. Having watched him all year I’m an unalloyed fan of the defense but there are real concerns about how much he’ll hit. There’s some usable power there as well, but he has a very unconventional batting stance and his selectivity is a work in progress. Heisey is probably more useful as a back-up as he can play all three OF positions at an above average level.
Frazier is a possibility but, like Heisey, his hitting may come up short for a LF, and he has yet to log his first major league PA. Francisco has played a grand total of 10 games in LF in his professional career, which hasn’t stopped the meme machine from consistently putting him there. I’m not sure he’s any more qualified, or able, to play LF than Alonso. So while I’m amenable to all all of that trio getting some time to show what they’ve got, none of them are truly satisfying options for a contender, and these sorts of proposals seem borne more of prospect wishcasting than anything borne out by observation.
by blackoutyears on Jan 5, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I think Milwaukee wins that Trade too Paul
Its just they also traded Odorizzi, Jeffress and (Cain, Escobar) to get Grienke as well to even further thin out their system
All they have left now is Kyle Heckathorn, Mark Rogers, Wily Perlata, and a few others….
Where as Toronto gained Lawrie and already have Drabek, Stewart, Arencibia, D’Arnaud, Perez, Thames, Gose, Marisnick, Hechavarria, Wojo and
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 4, 2011 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
I dont think hes too high on Owens, Locke or Wilson at all
To me i think there grossly underrated, if Owens was a former 1st Rd pick, people would be salivating…Locke too has better stuff than everyone thinks and so does Wilson…The most overrated prospects in our system is Chase D’Arnaud cause we starve for a legit SS prospect…look for Gorkys and Alderson to have bounce back years…I think Gorkys bat finally comes around…we could have some good trade chips in the future with OF prospects Gorkys, Marte, Lambo, Grossman, Chambers, Rojas Jr. and Latimore.
Morris and Watson
are the only guys I really disagree on. From what I’ve read, the people who like Morris as a reliever see him as an 8th- or 9th-inning guy. Reports were pretty stellar from his late-season stints as a reliever last year. So either he develops a decent changeup and becomes a mid-rotation starter or he doesn’t and becomes a power late-inning arm. If the former happens, he’s probably a better starter than Owens, Locke, or Wilson. If the latter happens, he’s probably better than Moreno. You have to believe neither will happen in order to rank him as low as 11/C+ here – seven spots and two grades below Owens, four spots and a grade behind Moreno. I don’t buy that, personally.
Watson I feel less strongly about, but I don’t think he has the stuff to be more than a LOOGY. His days as a starter might already be over, as he’s kind of buried on the SP depth chart at the upper levels.
I like the pessimistic grade for Marte and the optimistic ones for Owens and Holt.
Pirates
Really like this list, although I would say Lambo is a top 20 guy. Sad to see Alderson has slipped so much but we have so many pitchers that it doesnt hurt quite as much. I am, as a fan, very excited for the future and truly believe the current core of guys in the MLB can make some noise. Hopefully the development goes well in the minors for these guys.
I'm thinking about making my own list shortly...
would anyone want to see it? I feel like as a devoted Pirate fan I may be able to go a little more in depth than this. No disresepect to John, but with all of the hard work he puts in to doing a list for every team he may not be able to go as far as someone who mainly focuses on one team. His list will still probably be better because I will likely not be able to avoid homerism in my rankings as a Pirate fan. lol
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
list
No disrespect taken.
I’m covering 30 teams. Every team has people who can follow it more closely than I can since that is their main focus.
Lambo is def a top 10 Prospect in this system
no way Watson, Chambers, Holt, or Dodson should make the list over him. But i agree with you on the Grading, i mean Taillon and Allie will go up in that grade next year, and Owens and Locke i think have a ceiling of #3’s, I like Locke more because i think he has better stuff, but Owens control is great.
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