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Mayo's top 50


1. Mike Trout, Angels |
2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays |
3. Bryce Harper, Nationals |
4. Domonic Brown, Phillies |
5. Dustin Ackley, Mariners |
6. Aroldis Chapman, Reds |
7. Mike Moustakas, Royals |
8. Eric Hosmer, Royals |
9. Jesus Montero, Yankees |
10. Julio Teheran, Braves |
11. Desmond Jennings, Rays |
12. Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays |
13. Michael Pineda, Mariners |
14. Mike Montgomery, Royals |
15. Jacob Turner, Tigers |
16. Wil Myers, Royals |
17. Freddie Freeman, Braves |
18. Jameson Taillon, Pirates |
19. Zach Britton, Orioles |
20. Shelby Miller, Cardinals |
21. Mike Minor, Braves |
22. Casey Kelly, Padres |
23. Martin Perez, Rangers |
24. Manny Machado, Orioles |
25. Chris Sale, White Sox |
26. Brandon Belt, Giants |
27. Matt Moore, Rays |
28. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays |
29. Jarrod Parker, D-backs |
30. Jonathan Singleton, Phillies |
31. Jordan Lyles, Astros |
32. Gary Sanchez, Yankees |
33. Tyler Matzek, Rockies |
34. John Lamb, Royals |
35. Manny Banuelos, Yankees |
36. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians |
37. Jake Odorizzi, Royals |
38. Nick Franklin, Mariners |
39. Aaron Hicks, Twins |
40. Kyle Gibson, Twins |
41. Wilin Rosario, Rockies |
42. Jose Iglesias, Red Sox |
43. Tanner Scheppers, Rangers |
44. Dee Gordon, Dodgers |
45. Devin Mesoraco, Reds |
46. Brett Jackson, Cubs |
47. Chris Archer, Rays |
48. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays |
49. Yonder Alonso, Reds |
50. Christian Friedrich, Rockies |

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110124&content_id=16493480&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

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Not a huge fan of the list...

but Royals fans should be happy. I wonder if he has Myers slated as a catcher or an outfielder in his ranking?

by Havok1517 on Jan 25, 2011 11:59 PM EST reply actions  

he mentioned in the show that myers is moving to corner outfield. also mentioned hosmer might move to a corner OF to let moustakas slide over to first.

by jwa1417 on Jan 26, 2011 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Loves Pimentel

The thing that jumps out the most to me in his rankings by position is that he apparently loves Pimentel. He has him at number seven. Other than the ridiculously low walk total, I wonder if he’s onto something. How much plate discipline can you expect from a 17 year-old?

by Trashman on Jan 26, 2011 12:29 AM EST reply actions  

I'm not sure

What you’re talking about. #7 is Moustakas. There’s no Pimentel on this list. The Pimentel I’m thinking of, Stolmy, is not a hitter…

by killa on Jan 26, 2011 8:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Positional rankings

Mayo had Guillermo Pimentel at #7 on his OF positional ranking (and at #56 in the overall just missed category).

link

by aCone419 on Jan 26, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Scouts absolutely love Pimentel...

this surprises me a great deal. He’s got raw power that’s rare for a 17 y/o, but how many people of whom that’s true have completely fallen flat, particularly when they’re not great athletes? I like Pimentel as a guy to follow, but I need to be convinced that he’s got potential to be more than Carlos Peguero v. 2.0 before he belongs this high on any list (hell, I didn’t even put him in my Ms top-20!).

by slamcactus on Jan 26, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't remember anyone ever talking about Peguero's tools the way they talk about Pimentals.

It seems like comparing the two is only based off of the fact that they are Latin American free agent outfielders.

And not having him in your top 20 for the organization is just… well, it doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you just wouldn’t put anyone in the top 20 who hasn’t played stateside yet. But if you’re ranking players based on who you’d like to have in your farm system, I’d take Pimental over guys like Beaven, Cortes, Seager, Littlewood, etc.

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 26, 2011 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

You remember wrong.

Chiefly, because the only tool people talk about with Pimentel is power. He’s a fringe average runner whose speed tool will get worse as he matures physically, he has a decent arm, but really, his game is all about power. Peguero was the same way.

It seems like comparing the two is only based off of the fact that they are Latin American free agent outfielders.

How about they’re both left handed bats from the Dominican Republic (which means a similar level of experience when they signed) who are limited athletically to an OF corner, whose primary tools are power and whose only other plus tools are their arms, and both of them strike out too much and don’t walk enough? Is that a little more than “both are Latin American outfielders?”

Peguero’s bigger, but they have similar strengths and weaknesses.

And not having him in your top 20 for the organization is just… well, it doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you just wouldn’t put anyone in the top 20 who hasn’t played stateside yet.

As I explained when I posted my list on this site, my approach to prospect rankings begins with the fundamental assumption that while physical development is relatively predictable, skills development is very difficult bordering on impossible to project. The fact that someone is physically projectable puts him on the map, but when his skills lag so far behind his physical projection, I am inclined to be very conservative on his ranking. Especially when even as a teenager his athleticism precludes any possibility of him playing a position on the positive end of the defensive spectrum.

Pimentel’s tools put him on the map for me. His skills (which I consider to be significantly rawer than other Latin American bonus babies his age) put him down the list a good bit. From where I’m standing, he isn’t any more likely than anyone else to improve his swing mechanics, his pitch recognition, or his approach at the plate. Until he demonstrates a skill base that will allow him to develop into a major league hitter down the line, I will remain conservative in my ranking of him.

The flip side in ranking these teenage bonus babies, in my opinion, is pretty much just picking the archetype you think a player best fits and to rank him based on that rather than on any characteristic that’s unique to the specific player. I’d much rather be conservative than form my opinion based on an abstraction rather than concrete information about a player.

by slamcactus on Jan 26, 2011 7:51 PM EST up reply actions  

yep

this and Moore are the two really weird ones. Maybe Singleton being awfully high as well.

by PrincetonCubs on Jan 26, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

That's probably a result of Mayo's flawed methodology, frankly

If you’re asking 20 pollsters to give you a top 30, but then list the top 50 point getters, you’re inevitably going to have some quirky findings at the bottom of the list. It could only take one scout to be particularly bullish on Friedrich to push him in ahead of other, more consensus picks. We used to have this trouble on our Purple Row Rockies prospect lists when some friend or family member of a fringe prospect would submit an oddball ballot with them in the top 10, driving up their point total so they’d appear on the top 30, so we’ve gone to a weighted system where a prospect only gets one tenth of their total points for one ballot, two tenths for two, and so on until they’re on at least ten ballots.

I think Mayo should probably do something like this. I think Friedrich gets too quickly written off by many around here, but I certainly wouldn’t consider him a top 50 prospect and top 100’s probably pushing it.

by Rox Girl on Jan 26, 2011 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Not Mayo's list

Mayo just compiled Top 30 prospects from scouts and gave guys points from 1-30 based on those rankings.

by dougdirt on Jan 26, 2011 12:49 AM EST reply actions  

yea i know

couldn’t think of a better title though.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Jan 26, 2011 1:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Odorizzi

Probably the highest I’ve seen him so far. I’m surprised he has him over both Duffy and Dwyer, but I think a good argument could be made to support it.

by deezle on Jan 26, 2011 8:44 AM EST reply actions  

+1

I can see over Dwyer, probably not Duffy for me—but really like Jake.

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

i have Dwyer above both.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Jan 26, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I can see it--

So much to love in the arms they have on the come.

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Same

It seems Royals fans are more bullish on Dwyer than other fans.

by deezle on Jan 26, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

MLB Network

Aired the show last night, will probably have plenty of reruns, so check your TV guides.

by killa on Jan 26, 2011 8:48 AM EST reply actions  

Mine has yet to get here.

The Pony Express guy’s always late when it snows.

by PissedMick on Jan 26, 2011 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

AT&T U-Verse

Really sucks if you own AT&T U-Verse as they still can’t get over their petty quibble with MLB in order to provide the MLB Network.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Jan 26, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

definitely my favorite poster on this site.

by aCone419 on Jan 26, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

you must try taking a look w/out

your Nats colored glasses on!

He’s top75 fringe.

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

He's their tenth-rated C prospect

Among other things, they also discuss suspect D and a logjam at C in Washington.

Thanks for 50 Great Years Bobby Cocks - (celebration cake from the US Senate)

by siddfynch on Jan 26, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Definitely better than fringe top 75

I’m not a Nats fan, but Norris is being underrated severely around these parts these days by a lot of people. I’ve got him at #45 overall.

If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.

Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/

by Archie A on Jan 26, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll concede

that I meant fringe 50 and within the top75-ish overall.

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok

I can see that, and there are definitely so questions still about some of the things you have qualms about.

If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.

Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/

by Archie A on Jan 26, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I actually think he's overrated around here.

He’s a significantly lesser C prospect than Rosario (a year older yet a level behind, a lot worse on defense, less power, less ability to hit for average) and yet he’s rated higher by the consensus it seems.

by Rox Girl on Jan 26, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Norris has a wide range of opinions,

but Rosario is severely underrated here. I’ve got Rosario at 33 compared to Norris at 45

If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.

Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/

by Archie A on Jan 26, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm surprised

at Norris’s absence as well. Not really sure there’s a need to comp him to Rosario, but Norris got significantly better reports on his defense this year (Rosarios is better but not many saying Norris can’t catch now), his raw power is closely comparable to Rosario’s, I think he drew more walks last year than Rosario has in his entire minor league career, and Rosario’s injury is probably going to linger into this season right, delaying his start? If Norris gets, and stays, healthy then he may make up some of the ground. I think the “logjam” in WAS is overrated.

by blackoutyears on Jan 31, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

This community rates him 36th overall

That’s certainly not Nats homerism, is it?

by FI2 on Jan 26, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Be real with yourself.

by Daggerrrrrr on Jan 26, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

correct-

He has a lot of support around here, not just Dag…it is my personal rank/feeling on him. Have to like his zone judgement and power, still a lot to doubt for me though and I see a slightly above replacement level catcher.

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Wonder if he had

Mejia eligible? Some do, some do not…wish there was some sort of consensus way to determine…

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 10:49 AM EST reply actions  

wow

I thought I was the lone radical that still placed him around the top12 overall.

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Couple Things

I think Montero below Hosmer is fail.

I have Shelby Miller, Minor, Kelly, Lamb and Moore all above the likes of Drabek, Monty, Turner, Tailon and Britton…and no Randall Delgado is a bad oversight.

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 11:54 AM EST reply actions  

I kinda like that Mayo's lists end up a little off from most

Same with Frankie P, I like to see different opinions and views than the majority.

Btw I think Kipnis needs to be top 40 at least, Mayo did say on twitter that he’s top 100. But I think he should be much higher.

by Southwest on Jan 26, 2011 2:54 PM EST reply actions  

They're certainly not indefensible...

and it’s cool to have a list that’s a distillation straight from scouts. I’d love to see him expand the number of contributors. In particular I think it would be awesome if this list featured a senior national minor league scout from every major league organization.

by slamcactus on Jan 26, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

But, I’ve always liked the discussion that comes from the differences in the players ranked 80-100. Usually we don’t see such a diversion in the top 50.

by JD Sussman on Jan 26, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

does any1 have a link to last years’ list handy…?

by St.Steve on Jan 26, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

Castro at 11, Bumgarner at 14, Austin Jackson at 25

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Jan 27, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Why not?

"A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public opinion"

Chinese Proverbs quotes

by siddfynch on Jan 28, 2011 2:40 AM EST up reply actions  

couple bad calls

but nobody is correct 100% of the time…pretty good list overall from last year.

by St.Steve on Jan 27, 2011 9:27 AM EST up reply actions  

If not for the Jeff Pearlman twitter saga

I’d offer my opinion on Mayo, but I’m afraid he’d track me down and call demanding an apology.

by realitypolice on Jan 29, 2011 12:11 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

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