2011 Chicago Cubs Top 30

This piece was orginally wrote for the readers on the BCB but i am posting here because I respect a lot of the opinions on this site and want to get some feedback. I am including a poll to see where the community thinks the system ranks in the wake of the Garza deal. I know it's a long read but hopefully you'll find it interesting.

The Cubs system took a hit with the addition of Matt Garza from the Rays in exchange for 4 of our best prospects. Jim Callis said before the trade the Cubs system would have rnaked 8th according to Baseball America. In the aftermath of the trade the system obviously will fall but there is still good depth and a system full of intriguing players. The system now probably falls somewhere in the back end of the teens. While I was a fan of aquiring Garza the price was steep but I don't feel it was as bad as what some made it out to be. The concensus of scouts and GMs was the Cubs gave up good but not elite prospects.

While the price was probably an overpay we did deal from positions of strength within the system. I was never sold on Archer as a SP and thought he would end up in the bullpen. Guyer was more of a 4th OF and while I like Chirinos he was a back up for us as long as Soto is with the team. Lee is the 1 payer I really was sad to see go but with Castro at SS and plethera of MI prospects who could end up at 2B again we dealt from a position of strength. Overall the system took an obvious hit but it still is a solid system. Now let's take a look at how the rest of system shakes out now.

**Rank, position, name, age as of April 1st, level where I feel they are most likely to start the season, ETA

1. RHP Trey McNutt, 21, AA, Mid-season 2012

McNutt burst ontot the scene for the Cubs in 2010 ascending 3 levels all the way to AA at the age of just 20 years old and in his 1st full season of proball. Featuring 2 plus-plus pitches starting with his 4 seam FB that sits 92-98 that comes in on a bit of a flat plane but he does blow it by hitters up in the zone. His 2nd pitch, a power slurve, that can nuetralize lefties has 2 plane break. McNutt rarely used his CU in 2010 and will need to flash it more as he moves up the system but the pitch has promise. I have McNutt over BJax here because I feel McNutt is just scratching the suface of what he can do. Considering his LOB% and BABIP at high A and AA leaves room to say he could have been even better. While he did get roughed up in his 1st taste of AA in the regular season he came back in 2 playoff starts to go 1-1 11 IP 9h 3er 4bb 12K's. If McNutt can learn to use his CU more he has the ceiling of a true #1 in the Justin Verlander mold. If not he could still start but would limit his upside to that of a 2/3 or a closer.

2. OF Brett Jackson, 22, AAA, Mid-season 2011

 Jackson has a quick bat that produces loft to his swing that should produce 15-20 HR annually. His plus speed should allow him to steal bases and take extra bases. Jackson draws walks and works counts well that also contributes to a high SO total that will limit his BA at the ML level. After and 8/17 start at AA he hit just .259 the rest of the way leaving me to feel his offensiver upside is that of a Mike Cameron-type player. Jackson profiles more as a solid regular who should be able to handle CF with improving reads and jumps and an average arm with accurate throws.

3. 3B Josh Vitters, 21, AA, Late 2012

If the Cubs allow Vitters to play all year at AA in 2011 I think it will be a huge breakout year. Offensively he has a quick smooth swing that makes easy contact and was making strides with his PD before breaking his hand. From what I've read about his defense in the AFL I think he can stick at 3B and be an average defender. Vitters offensive ceiling is large but will need continue to improve on his pitch selection.

4. RHP Chris Carpenter, 26, AAA, Mid season 2011 unless he wins a bullpen spot in ST.

Carp could be an innings eating 3/4 SP but considering the depth the Cubs have and his AFL performance he may be better suited as a set up man in the bullpen. Carp features a 91-96 mph FB with good life that when working in relief sits 95-99 and hit 101 in the AFL. His slurve is an above average pitch sitting in the low 80's with bite and depth. He has an average CU that if he moves to the bullpen he won't need. Carpenter also generates a lot of GBs. His AFL showing may have sealed his fate to working out of the pen in 2011 for the ML club.

5. RHP Hayden Simpson, 21/22, Low A, Mid Season 2013

Surprise 1st round pick that features a 4 pitch arsenal starting with a low 90's FB that can touch 97, a knee-buckling curve, hard slider, and solid CU. Also has plus command and control which should help his pitches play up but will need to work on his FB life. Wilken does a great job at judging pitchers so this could end up being a steal and could move fast.

6. OF. Matt Szczur, 21/22, Low A, Late season 2013...if ever

Exciting player who may end up playing football. Athletic speedster with true 80 speed and a knack for barreling the ball. Has good PD and gap to gap current power with the potential to add average power with better coaching. Szczur is a tireless worker and very competive. Callis said, while he may not get there, Grady Sizemore type ceiling is not out of the question. Would recieve a 500k bonus if he gives a written commitement to baseball before the NFL combine. The problem is with a weak WR class I can't see him at least not exploring his options for the NFL though the labor unrest could help him choose baseball.

UPDATE - Will forgo the NFL to focus on baseball. Had I known this when I started this list would have ranked as high as 3rd and focusing soley on baseball now should him mature faster.

7. RHP Rafael Dolis, 22, AA, Mid to late season 2012 as a starter or as early as late 2011 as a reliever

2 potential plus pitches with his 94-96 mph FB that generates a ton of GBs that he carry's late into games. Working as a releiver he sits in the upper 90's and can touch triple digits. His mid 80s SL is nasty. Shows some feel for the CU but needs to work on his command and control to be a long term SP. At the least he has the look of a power late inning reliever.

8. RHP Alberto Cabrera, 22, AA, Late 2012

Plus FB that sits 92-97 mph and 2 hard breaking pitches. Has an average CU. Live arm that struggled in AA in 2010 and should get another chance in 2011. May end up a reliever.

9. RHP Jay Jackson, 23, AAA, 2011 (could break camp as a reliever/will make his debut in some role in 2011)

Nice 4 pitch arsenal but stock took a bit of a hit. Is a flyball pitcher who will need to keep his HRA in check to be successful at the ML level. Could break camp as a bullpen arm or make his debut as a spot SP.

10. OF Micheal Burgess, 22, AA, late 2012

I had my list all set and got up this morning to work on this post and saw the trade. Since he's new I'll give a full scouting report. Supp. 1st round pick by the Nats in 2007 out of Tampa, Fla. H.S. The Good: Strong compact body (5'11 195) that hit's LH. Has plus to plus-plus power. His plus arm is 1 of the most feared in the minors that is very accurate. Is a solid defender overall. Does draw some walks and does a decent job working counts. Is a hard worker who wants to improve his game. The bad: swings and misses alot which will  limit his BA and chases too many CB in the dirt. Is a below average runner with contact issues. Has worked to shorten swing and from what I can tell he seemed to improve in making contact in 2010. Stock dropped according to BA from 9th coming into 2010 to around 20 this year. Profiles best as a power hitting 4th OF who if he can make some more progress could profile as a solid regular. Right now he doesn't profile to hit more then .250 as a ML, maybe lower. I like this pick up. He has some upside left but will need to work on his flaws.

11. IF D.J. LeMahieu, 22/23, AA, Late 2012

LeMahieu is the systems best pure hitter but lacks power and has defensive limitations. Profiles as a UTL player but if he can learn to turn on some pitches he could be an offensive minded 2B though there are some questions wheather he can handle that move defensively. I like D.J. and think there are some more improvements coming.

12. RHP Su-Min Jung, 21, High A, 2014

Anyone who's been reading me this past year knows how bullish I've been on Jung. Finally got some love from John Sickles this year and I asked numerous questions in the Cubs BA chat but got no responses on him. IMO he is primed for a breakout season this year. Was really starting to put it together over the final 2 months in 2010 which saw his K/9 rise to 10.6 and BB/9 fall to 2.9 before a horrible Aug. 10th outing then got put on the DL. FB sits in the low 90's that can touch 95 and improving CB and CU.

13. RHP Ben Wells, 19, SS-A, Late 2015

Agressive ranking here but I think he's got the stuff to justify it. Signed for 530K as a 7th rounder. This is the type of tough signs the Cubs need to make more of. Reasonable bonus with a ton pof potential.Plus FB sits in the low 90s that can touch 95 and may have more velo to come. Wells also has a nice hard slider and splitter. Above I state he will start at Boise because of how agressive the Cubs have been though AZL  may be where he starts.

14. SS. Junior Lake, 21, AA, Sometime in 2013

Impresive pakage of tools. Has a cannon arm and good power potential. Will eventually have to move off SS but could profile as a 3B if the power comes or 2B. Made some strides in 2010 but still has a long ways to go. Cut SO slightly and drew more walks and made better contact. Will need to carry this over to more advanced pitchers in AA and if he can this ranking will be to low but if he can't then this ranking will be to high.

15. RHP Austin Reed, 19, Low A, 2014 (but could move faster because of pitchibility)

Reed got rave reviews in the AZL ranking as the leagues 11th best prospect. Mixes 3 quality pitches, FB, CB and advanced CU, from a high three-quaters delievery. Reed is inteligent and could move fast for a H.S. because of his understanding how to pitch.

16. OF Reggie Golden, 19, AZL (or the Cubs could decided to start him at Boise though I think the league could carve him up)

Toolsy kid who is very raw. Has plus-plus power potential and very strong arm. Is athletic and has current above average speed. Raw hit tool and doesn't recognize off-speed stuff. The Cubs will need to take it very slow with him but could be an A.S. or bust in A ball. Very similar to Micheal Burgess coming out of H.S.

17. RHP Robinson Lopez, 20, High A, 2014

Lottery ticket aquired in the Derek Lee trade. Has big FB but will need to harness control. For a full scouting report check scoutingthesally.com.

18. RHP Kim-Jin Yeong, not sure if he's 18 or 19, AZL, 2016

This ranking is purely on scouting reports and 1.2 million bonus. 4 pitch mix starting with a FB that can hit 92, SL, CB, CU and above average command for his age. Got good reviews in instructs with some saying better stuff then Jung but better polish.

19. OF Jae-Hoon Ha, 20, High A, Mid season 2013

Makes good contact and power started to emerage in 2010. Will need improve Shawn Dunston-like 3.2 BB%. Decent speed and a chance to improve his ranking with a good showing at Daytona.

20. LHP Austin Kirk, 21, Low A, Late season 2013

Should start at Peoria but should move up to Daytona by mid season. 88-91 mph FB that is explosive and gets on hitters. Solid CB and good CU. Get's GBs, decent control, and good K rates that may produce a breakout season.

21. RHP Brett Wallach, 22, High A, Late 2013

Intriguing sleeper prospect who posted good K/9 numbers but needs to refine control. Wallach features some projection left to go with a good 3 pitch mix. 88-91 mph FB, a slurve with quick late break, and a good CU. The son of ex-ML Tim Wallach he's got good baseball pedigree and could move fast once his command improves.

22. SS Darwin Barney, 25, ML club, 2010

Barney doesn't have enough power to profile as a regular but offers enough to be a useful UTL player for the ML club in 2011. Makes solid contact to go with good intangibles and does the little things that makes teams he has played on winners. 

23. LHP Brooks Raley, 22/23, AA, late 2012

Tale of 2 seasons: Pre A.S. 2-5 5.93 Post A.S. 6-1 1.87. If he can build on his 2nd half he could really take off. Right now he profiles as lefty in the bullpen but may have some upside remaining.

24. RHP Dallas Beeler, 21/22, Low A, Mid season 2013

Beeler is a deep sleeper from the 2010 draft. Had TJS at Oral Roberts and is throwing 92-95 mph again to go with a promising slider. Could be a real mover on this list by next year.

25. 2B Matt Cerda, 20/21, High A, Late 2013

Was playing 3B at Peoria but profiles as a 2B. On base machine (68 BB) who has a little pop.

26. IF Ryan Flaherty, 24/25, AA, Late 2012

Not real sure if he deserves to be on this list. Has some pop but very old for High A last year. Will need to show he can hit AA pitching to still be considered a prospect. Defensive limitations limit his profile to corner UTL player. This imo is a make or break season.

27. LHP Chris Rusin, 24, AA, Mid season 2012 as a reliever

Fringy FB, decent CB, best CU and command in the system and generates GBs. At the least he should be a valuable lefty working in the bullpen but still has a chance to be a BOR starter.

28. 3B Dustin Geiger 19, SS-A or maybe Low A, Late 2014-2015

Another potential sleeper from the our underrated 2010 draft. Still growing body, power potential, and good defensively. I like Geiger and think he could surprise some this year and offers more upside then your normal 24th rd. pick.

29. SS Arismendy Alcantara 19, Low A, late 2014

Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect tabbed him as a player to watch this year. Should be the starting SS for Peoria who offers speed and a bit of pop f from his small frame. Stop me if you've heard this 1 before: Will need to draw more walks and cut down on his SO to be more effective.

30. C Wellington Castillo, 24, AAA or could break camp as the back up C, 2010

I'm not a big fan of Castillo but he could be a solid back up C. Will never hit for much AVG. or draw many walks but has power and a great arm. Can be sloppy on D and does SO a lot.

Honorable Mention - LHP Jefry Antigua, 2B Pin-Chieh Chen, 2B Wes Darvill (sleeper), C Micah Gibbs, LHP Cam Greathouse, RHP Aaron Kurcz, 2B Pierre LaPage, RHP Luis Liria, RHP A.J. Morris, RHP Dae-Eun Rhee, SS Daniel Sanchez, 3B Marquez Smith, 2B Logan Watkins

The List - I really spent a lot of time going over where everyone should rank. In the past when putting together top 30 lists I would normally just rough everyone in and say you could make a case for moving guys up or down but for this list I'm very comfortable this is where I want everyone. Although the Burgess trade and Szczur descion threw me a bit as I was putting this together. Burgess may have rated more in the mid teens for me but Josh seemed to think back end of the top 10 so I went with that. Szczur could have ranked as high as 3rd. Overall I put in a lot of research and time and added ages, 2011 destinations (though these could change depending), and ETA (just rough estimates) because a couple ppl had asked for them.

System Overview - Lot's of intriguing players and the system has thinned because of the Garza trade but imo still a good system. Lot's of power RH who generate GB although many have questions about long term SP potential. We have speed galore from a ton of MI prospects. The system lacks corner OF/IF with power. The addition of Golden and Burgess help but we still have work to do. We have some interesting LHP but none who profile as a sure SP.

Draft - Our 2010 draft was underated by most and may produce a lot of sleepers. For 2011 we should break the 5 million mark if for no other reason then we hold the 9th overall pick. I hope we continue to try and take players like Golden and Wells that will help replentish the system. In a perfect world we would earmark 6-8 million for the draft but who know's at this point. Wilken does a good job at indetifying pitchers but will need to focus on bats this year.

Hope everyone enjoys this read. Please feel free to ask questions or discuss the rankings. I know it's a long read but I tried to pack in as much info for the community as I could. I will review the list in June and rewrite it after the Aug. 15th signing deadline for the 2011 draft.