Prospect Ranking Fun
by JSlakov on Jan 13, 2011 10:55 PM EST
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PrintThese are all B prospects according to Sickels. Rank them as best you can, please. Let me know if any of them are likely to contribute in the majors next year as well. If you don't want to rank them all, you can just say which ones you feel are the best, but I'd appreciate a full ranking if possible.
Wilin Rosario, C
Carlos Perez, C
Hak-Ju Lee, SS
Nick Franklin, SS
Matt Davidson, 3B
Jerry Sands, OF
Arodyz Vizcaino, P
Chris Carpenter, P
Juan Nicasio, P
Rex Brothers, P
Drake Britton, P
Tyler Chatwood, P
Garrett Richards, P
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P
Manny Banuelos, P
Rudy Owens, P
Alex Torres, P
Thanks!
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brr
Nick Franklin, SS
Manny Banuelos, P
Jerry Sands, OF
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P
Garrett Richards, P
Drake Britton, P
Arodyz Vizcaino, P
Matt Davidson, 3B
Wilin Rosario, C
Hak-Ju Lee, SS
Tyler Chatwood, P
Alex Torres, P
Carlos Perez, C
this is how i have them. i’d understand if others wouldn’t place Mesa that high. but I have a thing for guys with stuff. command and control can be improved easier than electric stuff.
wouldn’t worry about the others.. and isn’t c carpenter not a prospect anymore?
Okay
Franklin SS
Davidson 3B
Lee SS
Banuelos P
Sands OF
Owens P
Rosario C
Britton P
Chatwood P
Carpenter P
Vizcaino P
Brothers P
Richards P
Torres P
Mesa P
Perez C
Nicaiso P
me:
Franklin SS
Rosario C
Britton P
Banuelos P
Carpenter P
Davidson 3B
Sands OF
Lee SS
Owens P
Chatwood P
Vizcaino P
Brothers P
Richards P
Perez C
Torres P
Mesa P
Nicaiso P
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 14, 2011 12:33 AM EST reply actions
My take...
FWIW, I don’t see any of these guys making a real impact in 2011 in the bigs – only 3 r 4 might even get called up next September.
Nick Franklin, SS – best bat in the group; might go to 3B
Tyler Chatwood, P – most solid bet as a SP on this list, but not the most talented
Manny Banuelos, P – stature & stamina might be a concern, but talent is undeniable
Alex Torres, P – could be a big name this time next year
Carlos Perez, C – like his overall game; does he get moved off C?
Hak-Ju Lee, SS – move to TB sends him to the bigs in 3 years; would like to see a better BB rate
Arodyz Vizcaino, P – would be #2/3 if not for injury concerns
Drake Britton, P – really like his stuff; think he could be a good SP in BOS
Garrett Richards, P – control issues, headed for bullpen?
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P – see Richards; if he cuts walks in half, heads to the top 5
Wilin Rosario, C – one of the better C prospects out there, but not as high a ceiling
Matt Davidson, 3B – headed for 1B, huge power…but contact issues?
Jerry Sands, OF – solid producer, but could take a big tumble in 2011
Rex Brothers, P – if he pans out in the rotation, he jumps up a few spots
Juan Nicasio, P – a bit old, unpredictable – need to see AA data
Chris Carpenter, P – could jump, but likely a 8th inning guy
Rudy Owens, P – decent back end of the rotation guy
couple of things
Nick Franklin, SS – best bat in the group
debatable. seeing that you didn’t take future parks into consideration. Franklin’s gonna be a doubles machine. Rosario, however, will be playing 81 games in Coors. While Franklin may have the better approach, that’s not going to necessarily translate to better results in the pros.
Matt Davidson, 3B – headed for 1B
yeah, because Gaby Sanchez is horrible. Davidson’s defense is major’s ready NOW. He doesn’t have HUGE power. The issue is that he can’t hit all that well. He’s staying at 3B. However, he reminds me IMMENSELY of Eric Campbell, a former Braves farmhand, who had GREAT D but would never hit well enough to be anything more than a AAA 3B.
Jerry Sands, OF – solid producer, but could take a big tumble in 2011
what makes you say that? John LOVES Sands and thinks, from what I’ve read, that he can make Loney expendable. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the Dodgers 1B after the trade deadline.
Carlos Perez, C – …does he get moved off C?
what makes you say this? while he could fall into the “young pitcher stagnation” situation that we’ve so often seen, he’s done nothing yet to prove that he’s not a top-10 Catching prospect in all of baseball. He’s young and he’s athletic, but with the move towards athletic Catchers in the Majors, it seems contrary to recent trends to suggest that he’s moving. His defense isn’t as good as his bat, however, his defense isn’t Montero-bad.
Arodyz Vizcaino, P – would be #2/3 if not for injury concerns
OR a stud closer. Either way, the guy’s a stud. PLUS, he’s in the developmental system of Atlanta. Never count out pitchers in that system (that goes for Alex Torres and the Rays developmental system as well).
Chris Carpenter, P – could jump, but likely a 8th inning guy
Have you read John’s account on Carpenter? He thinks he’s a rotation guy, and I quote “May end up in the pen, but he’s got plus stuff and I wouldn’t give up on him as a starter yet,” and seeing that the OP wanted these rankings based on John’s account, you’ve got to put the guy higher than you have.
thus, for me the list goes:
Wilin Rosario, C
Jerry Sands, OF
Nick Franklin, SS
Carlos Perez, C
Manny Banuelos, P
Arodys Vizcaino, SP
Alex Torres, P
Chris Carpenter, P
Tyler Chatwood, P
Drake Britton, P
Hak-Ju Lee, SS
Garrett Richards, P
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P
Rex Brothers, P
Juan Nicasio, P
Chris Carpenter, P
Rudy Owens, P
Matt Davidson, 3B
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jan 14, 2011 2:01 AM EST up reply actions
oh @#$%
you’re right…i’m a moron.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jan 14, 2011 4:40 AM EST up reply actions
Just my opinion
Especially on Carpenter and Sands – I just don’t agree with John’s assessment. I think both are supplemental players.
"and seeing that the OP wanted these rankings based on John’s account, you’ve got to put the guy higher than you have."
Sorry, that’s not how I read that. I took that to mean that John ranked all of them as B prospects – now go and analyze them from there, not necessarily based on John’s analysis.
that's right
I was just giving a group of guys who John had ranked Bs and wanted people’s personal opinions of them. But giving them from John’s perspective is helpful also so thanks to both. :)
Sorry, one last comment...
On Perez…I wasn’t saying that Perez can’t stick at C, but I think TOR will actually try him at other positions. I think given his youth, and with D’Arnaud & JPA ahead of him, they’d be remiss if they didn’t give him a shot as a 2B or 3B. This isn’t my conjecture, either – I’ve read that the Jays are floating the idea of trying him in the infield. I do think CP is a top-10 C prospect, and am a big fan of his.
On the "future parks" comment
I don’t think you can evaluate prospects that way. Yes, some prospects will benefit from their future environment, but that doesn’t make them a “better” player than someone who is hurt by their environment.
For example, is Adrian Gonzalez more valuable to the Red Sox than the Padres because they play in a more hitter-friendly environment? No, because the difference between the Adrian Gonzalez and a replacement level hitter is theoretically the same in both parks (the replacement level hitter would be helped by roughly the same amount by Fenway).
This is complicated a bit by park factors for different handedness and different skillsets, but the general point remains. It should also be noted that Franklin gets the majority of his at-bats as a lefty (he may even drop switch-hitting altogether), which Safeco is actually pretty friendly towards.
My take
Nick Franklin, SS
Manny Banuelos, P
Wilin Rosario, C
Hak-Ju Lee, SS
Drake Britton, P
(the above are B+ guys for me. Below are B’s or less)
Chris Carpenter, P
Arodys Vizcaino, P
Carlos Perez, C
(these next 5 pitchers are pretty interchangeable for me and within 15-20 spots on my board. Still unsettled…)
Garrett Richards, P
Alex Torres, P
Rudy Owens, P
Tyler Chatwood, P
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P
Jerry Sands, OF
(all the above are top 130 prospects or so. These guys are a few tiers below that.)
Matt Davidson, 3B
Juan Nicasio, P
Rex Brothers, P
I like...
The best…
Banuelos- great stuff
Franklin- Good bat. I think he stays at SS
Lee- Good defense. I believe in the bat
Britton- Good stuff, but a notch below Banuelos
Vizcaino- I have loved his stuff since I heard of him.
Perez- Should hit and stick at C.
Then…
Rosario- I don’t like him as much, but his bat will look good in Coors.
Sands- I’m not a believer. Not yet.
Chatwood- Ehhh. Not my favorite prospect. Could move up with a strong year.
Torres- Very underrated because of Ray’s depth. I think he has a big year.
Owens- I think he settles in as mid- to back end guy. #3/4
Carpenter- Good stuff. Not to sure about him though.
Davidson- Good power. He is a little big, but I he is one of my favorites. Needs to prove more.
Finally….
Richard- See Chatwood. Good stuff. I don’t believe yet though.
Mesa- See him more as their future closer than top end starter. Great fastball
Nicasio- I think he struggles once he gets to Double A. We shall see
Brothers- Future Loogy in my opinion. The fastball will only get him so far.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Ranked
Alex Torres, P
Arodyz Vizcaino, P
Jerry Sands, OF
Wilin Rosario, C
Nick Franklin, SS
Matt Davidson, 3B
Chris Carpenter, P
Hak-Ju Lee, SS
Tyler Chatwood, P
Garrett Richards, P
Rex Brothers, P
Drake Britton, P
Manny Banuelos, P
Carlos Perez, C
Juan Nicasio, P
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P
Rudy Owens, P
Love Torres and Lee, Sands could be just a one time wonder, and the bottom 4 on the list are guys I dont know anything about.
You seem to have....
Man Ban criminally low here… he seems to be the clear cut best pitcher on this list to me personally. Care to explain your reasoning here?
Looking it over
Probably low yes. But I have loved Torres for the past two seasons. Was wishing that if Doug Melvin had any sense he would be a Brewer right now….
I dont know a ton about Banuelos, but if I were going to go at this a 2nd time might move him up to that spot right beneath Rosario.
Would like to see what he does in AA before making a more definite opinion on the guy. Right now he appears to be the type of pitcher that could go either way bullpen or rotation.
I had him #4...
with room to move up a spot or so…
Wilin Rosario, C
Nick Franklin, SS
Manny Banuelos, P
Jerry Sands, OF
Gap
Arodyz Vizcaino, P
Garrett Richards, P
Carlos Perez, C
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P
Hak-Ju Lee, SS
Alex Torres, P
Tyler Chatwood, P
Drake Britton, P
Matt Davidson, 3B
Gap
Chris Carpenter, P
Rudy Owens, P
Juan Nicasio, P
Rex Brothers, P
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/
Manny Banuelos, P – I think he’s going to be very good if healthy.
Nick Franklin, SS – Like his #‘s and his position. Hopefully he stays.
Wilin Rosario, C
Carlos Perez, C
Arodyz Vizcaino, P – Think he could move up the list with health. Is a concern though.
Drake Britton, P
Hak-Ju Lee, SS – Disappointed when the Cubs traded him. Think he’ll be solid.
Chris Carpenter, P
Jerry Sands, OF
Garrett Richards, P
Alex Torres, P
Fabio Martinez Mesa, P
Tyler Chatwood, P – Not as high on him as most others.
Rudy Owens, P
Juan Nicasio, P
Rex Brothers, P
Matt Davidson, 3B
Here's how I would rank them:
1. Franklin
2. Banuelos
3. Rosario
4. Lee
5. Vizcaino
6. Britton
7. C. Perez
8. Carpenter
9. Chatwood
10. Richards
11. Torres
12. Sands
13. Martinez Mesa
14. Owens
15. Nicasio
16. Brothers
17. Davidson
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Mine:
1. Manny Banuelos
2. Wilin Rosario
3. Nick Franklin
4. Drake Britton
5. Arodys Vizcaino
6. Hak-Ju Lee
7. Carlos Perez
8. Tyler Chatwood
9. Alexander Torres
10. Garrett Richards
11. Chris Carpenter
12. Jerry Sands
13. Rudy Owens
14. Matt Davidson
15. Fabio Martinez Mesa
16. Juan Nicasio
17. Rex Brothers
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Well...
I see at least these 5 making BA’s Top 100:
- R Franklin
- M Banuelos
- M Davidson
- W Rosario
- T Chatwood
And maybe also:
- H Lee
- A Torres
Eh, I don't know about Davidson
Seems like a reach. I think Torres and Lee have a much better chance.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Jerry sands
Why is everyone so low on him?
Thanks for 50 Great Years Bobby Cocks - (celebration cake from the US Senate)
22 y.o. dominating A-ball...
is not all that impressive, given that he has been in the minors for 3 years already. Most of his best performances have been overly-high BABIP-aided. If he lights it up in AAA as he did in A, then I think a lot of opinions will sway. I’d say folks are skeptical…
My question would be: Why are some people so high on him?
KG over at BP gave him 3 stars (not a top 100 prospect) and had him 5th in the system: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12668
BP hasn’t ranked the Dodgers yet. Its hard to know how much to weigh it, but he ranked only 18th in BA’s Midwest League top 20. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610732.html
…and 20th in the Southern League top 20. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610759.html
John ranked him a straight “B,” which could certainly be construed as leaving him in the range many have him on this page. I also have him as a B (not that my grading matches up completely with John’s) and that still leaves him out of my top 100.
So there isn’t some industry consensus that this guy is a top prospect or anything, although I think there is a perception of such on this site sometimes.
The concerns:
- Much of his value lies in his bat, although I wouldn’t call him a bat only player. His defense has drawn some decent reviews, even in a corner OF, but he’s a big guy (listed at 6’4", 225)… and while he moves well enough now to handle the OF, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him slow down enough for it to be a problem – or at least ensure he provides no positive value there. He already has below average speed (as BA notes in their Midwest League Scouting Report on him – link above). My money is on him ending up at 1B… and that hurts his stock. His bat likely wouldn’t be anything special there.
- K’s & Contact are a huge issue. As KG mentioned in his writeup (link above) Sands struck out 123 times in 137 games despite being old for the Midwest League and age appropriate for AA. His K:BB ratio was 123:73. Not good. Doesn’t bode well for his batting AVG in the majors, either.
- Its not clear how much he will hit. I think the guy will hit for power, but with the K’s its pretty easy to envision a downside of a low avg slugger without a high OBP. That’s a little too close to a Mike Jacobs skill set for my tastes.
In the end, I see Sands as a good but not great prospect. Someone who lacks a star level ceiling and projects only as a solid regular… but with some major question marks. Its easy to look at his minor league slash stats and be impressed… but he was old for the Midwest League (very old for a legit prospect) and Great Lakes plays pretty neutral while Chatanooga (AA) really helps RHH.
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