What prospects have you been right about? Which ones have you been wrong about? Which ones is the jury still out?
- Be Honest
- State your definitions of success (see mine below)
- Try to limit it to a maximum of 30 recent players.
- Be Original (i.e. don't just pick all the elite prospects and say you thought they'd be good and you were right...)
- Success (Hitter): Impact player (above average) at the MLB level.
- Success (Pitcher): Earned a closer spot or spot in a MLB starting rotation and has been at least average.
- Right: David Price, Rick Porcello, Brian Matusz, Brett Cecil, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson
- Jury Still Out: Justin Masterson, Jordan Walden
- Wrong: none
- Right: none
- Jury Still Out: Hank Conger, Lars Anderson, Beau Mills, Mike Moustakas, Jesus Montero, Ben Revere
- Wrong: none
The good news is that over the past 4-5 years I've done pretty well predicting pitching talent, haven't really been "wrong" yet. Some might have Hellickson as a "Jury Still Out", but I bumped him into "Right" because he pitched well last season and is almost guaranteed a rotation spot this season. Some might bump Porcello down to "Jury Still Out" or even a miss. Some might bump Masterson down to a "Miss". But I think Porcello has been average and I think Masterson has just been the victim of a bad team around him.
The bad news is I haven't predicted a solid hitting prospect yet. And 2 of my "Jury Is Still Out" guys are looking like they might be busts (Mills and Anderson) as soon as this season or next.