Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2011
by John Sickels on Jan 1, 2011 1:01 PM EST
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Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2011
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2011
1) Mike Trout, OF, Grade A: Complete package if his power fully develops, and still an excellent player even if it doesn't.
2) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Grade B: Development continues along a steady path, should be a fine number three starter with some chance to be better than that.
3) Jean Segura, 2B, Grade B: He's for real. Could put up huge numbers in the California League, and this grade may be a bit too conservative.
4) Jordan Walden, RHP, Grade B: Can close if he maintains the control he showed late in the year.
5) Garrett Richards, RHP, Grade B: Much better than he was in college, has always had the stuff, just needed more consistency and to get away from metal bats.
6) Fabio Martinez Mesa, RHP, Grade B: I'm entranced with his K/IP and H/IP ratios and plus stuff. Needs better command of course.
7) Hang Conger, C, Grade B-: Borderline B, but I'm worried about his defense and he won't hit quite enough to be a regular first baseman for a good team.
8) Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Grade B-: This grade could go up (or down) pretty quickly...has great physical ability, pro statistical sample size is both unimpressive and too small to be meaningful.
9) Randal Grichuk, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+, he's hit great in between injuries, but poor strike zone judgment will be a handicap at higher levels.
10) Cam Bedrosian, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+, like Cowart, he's got plenty of talent but small pro sample size plus an injury question (late season sore elbow) make him hard to rank just yet.
11) Mark Trumbo, 1B, Grade C+: Borderline B-. He has tons of power and had a great year, but I've seen him strike out and look bad so often in person that I can't buy into the Salt Lake numbers completely.
12) Alexi Amarista, 2B, Grade C+: Another in the long line of Angels line drive hitting middle infield prospects. A small player at 5-8 (and looks smaller) but he has talent.
13) Daniel Tillman, RHP, Grade C+: Future closer? We need to see him above the Pioneer League, but I am optimistic.
14) Mike Kohn, RHP, Grade C+: Relief arm ready to help now.
15) Trevor Reckling, LHP, Grade C+: Command fell apart last year, but young enough to rebound.
16) Chevez Clarke, OF, Grade C+: High-ceiling, high-risk outfielder, could be a 20/20 player or a Double-A flameout.
17) Donn Roach, RHP, Grade C+: One of my favorite sleepers for 2011, 6.04 ERA in Pioneer League was misleading, love combination of strikeouts and grounders.
18) Luis Jimenez, 3B, Grade C+: Recovered from losing '09 to labrum injury. Quick bat but impatient.
19) Jeremy Moore, OF, Grade C+: Tools outfielder has made gradual progress, good speed and some power, but strike zone judgment remains an issue.
20) Taylor Lindsey, 2B, Grade C+: Angels like this line drive hitter from '10 draft, though he got mixed reviews from other teams.
OTHERS OF NOTE: Tyson Auer, OF; Dillon Baird, 3B; Ryan Bolden, OF; Kole Calhoun, OF; Angel Castillo, OF; Ryan Chaffee, RHP; Steve Geltz, RHP; Drew Heid, OF; John Hellweg, RHP; Gabe Jacobo, 1B; Tyler Kehrer, LHP; Justin LaTempa, RHP; Carlos Ramirez, C; Andrew Romine, SS; Max Russell, LHP; Chris Scholl, RHP; Wendell Soto, SS: Travis Witherspoon, OF.
Although not in the elite category right now, this is a solid farm system, with one player I regard as a sure-fire star in Trout, then a large group of Grade B/borderline B+ types, and plenty of B-/C+ to round things out. There is a mixture of pitching and hitting, and players from a wide variety of backgrounds. They seem to like picking tools players early in the draft, then mix in some polished college types in the middle and later rounds.
I like Chatwood, Richards, and Martinez-Mesa a lot, but all three have a question of some kind that needs to be answered this year. All three could be B+ prospects a year from now, maybe even A- if everything works out correctly. There is plenty of raw material to build a bullpen out of as well.
Trout is terrific, a good example of what you get when a tools player develops properly. If they can get Grichuk and Clarke to control the strike zone at higher levels, the outfield of the future will be excellent.
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if he had better control
Well, yeah. That’s a big if at this point. You could say the same thing about Jeurys Familia and a bunch of other young, hard-throwing guys.
by blackoutyears on Jan 1, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know if there is another pitcher in the minors with as good an out pitch (slider) coupled with the raw K numbers that Martinez Mesa has.
this.
I always rank Matt Moore higher than everyone else too. the point is that all of these guys are prospects, and all of them have question marks… its stupid to underrate the guys who have the skills/out-pitches to strike out MLB hitters right now…
So?
Without control it won’t mean much. There’s a reason a lot of scouts gave him a future reliever tag, and “out pitch (slider) coupled with the raw K numbers” is that reason. We’re talking about a game where Neftali Feliz grades as reliever for a lot of scouts, and he’s a ton more advanced than FMM.
What does Matt Moore have to do with anything? I’d rank (and have ranked) him a lot higher than FMM, and I think that’s probably the rule rather than the exception.
by blackoutyears on Jan 1, 2011 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
of course
And he’d be an ‘A’ prospect if he had that control. no one is arguing FMM is a perfect prospect, but he’s not a marginal prospect, either. He has elite stuff and, importantly to me, he has games where he has terrific control (showing he can do it). that’s a potential ace. He has an issue in that in some games he totally loses his control, and that leaves the obvious question: can he get more consistency?
Not terribly complicated. In ranking terms that question downgrades him from an ‘A’ to a ‘B’, but to lower him even further into the ranks of ‘just another prospect’ types is way too negative. To my mind FMM is one of the most underrated guys in the minors right now. I like John’s ranking a lot.
no one is arguing FMM is a perfect prospect, but he’s not a marginal prospect, either.
Which is fine if anyone were arguing that he’s ‘marginal’. There’s a lot of real estate between saying his ranking is too bullish and saying he’s marginal. Our opinions can be less glowing than yours and still be favorable.
No one’s saying don’t like the guy, but lack of control is a pretty important question mark. I like Wilmer Font for the same reasons some like FMM. I don’t get offended when people have less faith than I do because I acknowledge his flaws. Henry Rodriguez has posted superb strikeout rates throughout the minors and features a high-90s FB that regularly touches 100 and a slider that often flashes plus. Check out his High-A/Double-A combined stats in his Age 21 season. Look familiar? 27.53% whiff rate (32.6% in High-A), troubling WHIP, variable control of elite stuff.
FMM hasn’t pitched above Low-A yet, so let’s see how he fares against advanced hitters before going overboard. He’s absolutely worth following, but the minor leagues are littered with “potential aces” who never panned out.
by blackoutyears on Jan 4, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
What the the concerns regarding Conger's defense?
From most reports it seems as if he made some significant strides last year
You're probably talking about Hank Conger's Defense
It’s Hang Conger’s defense that he’s worried about.
by tywebster on Jan 1, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If Napoli can't catch for Scoscia
what makes you think Conger can? I see a Brandon Wood career progression (or regression) for Conger.
I don't get this
Conger has much better plate discipline than Wood has ever had. If Conger wasn’t looked at as a catcher by the Angels, then he would have switched positions or been traded by now. I don’t understand why top catching prospects are automatically assumed that they can’t stick at the position.
It's not defense in the abstract
I’ll re-iterate my stance on this: the problem is not whether Conger is good enough defensively to catch at the Major League level; it is rather whether he is good enough defensively to catch for a Mike Scioscia managed baseball club.
The problem is compounded by the fact that the Angels are notorious for hanging onto their prospects with a deathgrip even when it is glaringly evident to be to the detriment of both the organization and the prospect. See the case of Wood, Brandon: I’m not convinced he’ll ever make it at the major league level, but I can pretty much guarantee that he won’t make it in Anaheim and not all the blame for this can be placed on him.
Eh... I think the problem is also whether he's good enough to catch at the MLB level.
People keep painting it as a Soscia issue… there’s not too many managers who would suffer his present defensive abilities for long.
Here’s what I wrote in the FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects report last November:
Having missed so much time in earlier years due to injury, 2010 was a major test of his durability, and he passed with flying colors. Conger caught 81 games for the Bees, sometimes four or five games in a row. That said, his mechanics are still a work in progress. Although his arm strength is strong, his mechanics need improvement and led to throwing errors. His 13 errors were the most of any PCL catcher. He was 34 for 119 (28.6%) in throwing out base-runners; no PCL catcher had more runners try to steal on him. His blocking can be a bit unorthodox at times, but he was charged with no passed balls and had excellent lateral movement.
Two big factors here — (1) lack of experience, and (2) bad mechanics.
The lack of experience is simply because he was injured so much early in his career. Experience can be made up by playing more games.
Bad mechanics can be fixed by identifying the problems and using repetition to correct them. It doesn’t mean they will, but they can be fixed.
In summary, there’s nothing wrong with Hank’s defense that can’t be fixed with the passage of time. But as with every prospect, it’s up to the player in the end to implement what he’s been taught.
hey stephen
love your work
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great response
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Jan 3, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
if this as true then Sosh wouldn't play Mathis as he is one of the worst defenders in baseball
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Jan 1, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
Citation please
Who says that Mathis is one of the worst defenders in baseball?
Look at his stats
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“The problem is compounded by the fact that the Angels are notorious for hanging onto their prospects with a deathgrip even when it is glaringly evident to be to the detriment of both the organization and the prospect.”
That hasn’t been true for a couple years:
- Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek to rent Mark Teixeira.
- Will Smith and Sean O’Sullivan for Alberto Callaspo.
- Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin, and Rafael Rodriguez joined Joe Saunders in the Dan Haren trade.
marek, smith, o'sullivan
A bunch of winners right there.
It’s obviously still going to be a while before we can assess the Haren trade. I like Skaggs a lot, but he’s really the only prospect that you’d miss out of these packages, both now and at the time that the trades were made.
I’m not trying to dispute your argument that the Angels haven’t been willing to trade prospects – I’m just saying that the prospects that they’ve traded weren’t/aren’t players who were going to be terribly missed one way or the other. Not sure how Kotchman fits into the discussion, though – not only was he in his 5th year of major league action by the time he was dealt, but he had enjoyed a season and a half of strong MLB performance. He does seem to have dropped off the proverbial cliff, though – seeing this guy play as a prospect and as a young MLer, I could have never fathomed him hitting .217 in a major league season. If you didn’t believe in his secondary skills and you were skeptical of hitter-friendly environments, he was still an outstanding pure hitter who should have hit .280 in his sleep.
I like your Cowart ranking.
I agree he can either be a stud or a huge bust but the aggressive ranking is right. I think grichuk will have a big year if he stays healthy. The system lOoks pretty bright if everyone pans out. John, do you think the firing of Eddie Bane will lead to a different draft strategy? Thanks for all you do.
Kohnfed.
by angelskid2210 on Jan 1, 2011 2:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
good
IMO too low on moore and segura and conger,
too high on roach and bedrosian
love the aggressive martinez mesa clarke and cowart ratings
Finally what are your thoughts on bolden?
Brandon Wood 4 Prez
by miketrout on Jan 1, 2011 3:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I'm not sure I understand why a B- for Cowart is being called aggressive
If anything, it’s conservative given the grades to some other highly touted HS players (Castellanos, Aaron Sanchez, Tago, Lipka, Jenkins, Lee, Sale all received a “B”).
I can see why someone would want to be conservative with Cowart, but I’m just not seeing how it can possibly be called aggressive.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I think he should be higher too, but I don't have a problem with the grade
He’s a bit more volatile than most mid-first round talents, so I can see being conservative. It’s just baffling that people are calling it “aggressive” and “too high.”
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Look at Bolden's numbers
The BB/K ratio is frightening. The guy struck out in almost half of his AB’s in rookie ball. I’m not sure how you can describe him as a toolsy OF with absolutely no idea about the strike zone. It’s pretty much just his draft position at this point that keeps him on the “others of note” list.
I don't think he's necessarily overreacting, he's just looking at the wrong things
Bolden is uber-toolsy. The scouting reports on him, just from a raw talent standpoint, look otherworldly. But there’s a reason why a player with those kinds of tools was only a 3rd-5th round guy predraft, and it’s because his approach is terrible. Seeing a player who had concerns about his approach go into pro ball and struggle that much is a sign that those concerns were justified. I wouldn’t go crazy about the early results for all the obvious reasons, but it’s definitely going to be interesting to see how he does next year.
I agree that the Segura grade is too conservative
and especially so if the move to SS is successful. Has anybody heard anything else on that?
If everybody likes you, then either no one knows anything about you, or you're dead.
Fantasy Prospect Central: http://fantasyprospectcentral.blogspot.com/
There's certain guys he's left out and certain guys he included that Mr. Sickels probably shouldn't.
Having said that, not bad for someone who doesn’t pay attention to the Angels exclusively.
- Cam Bedrosian, Chevez Clarke and Taylor Lindsay have no business being in the top 20 yet.
- Jeremy Berg, Steven Geltz need to be in there.
- Too high on one 3B (Cowart) and not high enough on another (Jimenez).
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I look forward to reading your book on the Angels farm system
by mrkupe on Jan 1, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He seems to have a point on Berg and Geltz
I understand that relievers should be graded less highly, but they both look like at least C+ prospects. I assume that John forgot to put Berg on even the honorable mentions
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Jeremy Berg, Steven Geltz need to be in there.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to keep them out of a Top 20. Walden has closer upside and Kohn set-up and they’ve already logged promising major league innings, so they’re deserving. In general I’d like as few confirmed relievers as possible in my team’s Top 20. Berg should probably be in the HM section though.
by blackoutyears on Jan 1, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
berg geltz
I have some negative report on Berg frmo someone who had seen him (i have not). If you guys have seen him, please let me know what you saw. Geltz is in the book. I might upgrade him to a C+, his stuff is good.
I saw Berg, and I have nothing but good things to report.
His submarine delivery has made him extremely deceptive, it makes his high 80’s/low 90’s fastball more difficult to hit. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher and keeps the ball down in the zone. He’s also a very quick worker, he gets into a rhythm almost immediately and he rarely wastes pitches.
My comparison in the Top 25 List I constructed for LA Angels Insider is Darren O’Day. Berg has had more success in the minors than O’Day did, however stuff wise I think O’Day’s a stronger pitcher. I expect Berg’s numbers will continue to impress in the PCL, while Geltz’s ERA will inflate.
I believe Berg’s future is as a situational reliever. He’s never be a closer, maybe not even a set up man, but I do expect he’ll be a quality major league reliever.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
I believe Berg’s future is as a situational reliever.
So definitely not Top 20 material in an org worth a darn.
by blackoutyears on Jan 4, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Hey
where ya been?
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Jan 1, 2011 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Not at HH that's for sure.
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
why not?
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boycotting the Rev I assume?
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Jan 1, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
thats OK
he bitches too much
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by mathisrocks5 on Jan 2, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
WHo? Me or Mat Gleason (The Rev)
"You play for Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team." - Claire Holloway
"Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!" - Jake Taylor
i beg to differ on Bedrosian "not having any business being in top 20 yet"
I would have him in ANY system in baseball’s top 20 Including the Royals….
Even if he is purely a relief pitcher he will put up some gaudy like numbers again
I am a fan of Bedrosian
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 1, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
i also think John's grade on Cam Bedrosian is spot on
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
I hate Hunter Wendelstedt, you hate Hunter Wendelstedt we all hate hunter w
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 1, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
Agree with this.
Not that I feel strongly about it… but this isn’t a meritocracy. We’re grading future/potentials here. Bedrosian makes probably 25+ top 20s.
Jordan Walden or Craig Kimbrel?
Would love to see a prospect smackdown on these guys.
I'd take Walden
His stuff is right there with Kimbrel’s, and Walden showed better command late last year.
Hank Conger looked very confident behind the plate in his September callup
The pitchers worked well with him and Weaver really liked him. Socs also said he did a good job. Only think that looked bad were his throwdowns, but he has the arm strength to improve. I also LOVE Grichuk, I think he could explode if he stays healthy and gets some plate discipline. Bedrosian and Lindsey are my favorite picks in the draft other than Kaleb. I think both could be MLB regulars. Cant wait to see how many of these guys can raise their stock next year
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I really think the "Conger is a bad catcher" talk is overblown
Like most young catchers, he doesn’t do everything that you’d like to see out of your major league backstop, mind you major league teams have extraordinarily high standards for 95 percent of their catchers (and for good reason). But there are encouraging signs, and he seems to have made steady if somewhat slow progress. As long as the player is improving, there’s no reason to worry. That he’s managed to improve while making consistent improvements as a hitter is especially intriguing. He’s going to be only 23 this year, and has been on a relatively aggressive developmental plan for a prep-drafted catcher. Maybe it’s just that we want instant gratification, but I’ll admit to having a hard time seeing him as less than a Grade B, and I’d probably hold at the Grade B+ that he had last year. There aren’t many players who would slightly improve their defense and move to a higher level with an .~.850 OPS (even at Salt Lake City), yet get knocked two notches from the previous year.
Of course, if you think he’s really iffy on defense and that his bat is fringy, I can see B-.
by mrkupe on Jan 2, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
question about Cowart
In the hypothetical case that Cowart had been drafted and successfully signed as a pitching prospect, what would his grade be?
I liked him more as a position player, and I asked that same question to Matt Eddy:
Matthew Eddy: You’re not alone. A number of scouts preferred Cowart as a position player, too. I’m not sure his ranking would have been effected all that much had he remained a pitcher. I could see moving him ahead of Walden to No. 5.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I really loved him as a pitcher
Looked like a potential frontline pitcher, great stuff with the potential for more and nice secondaries. As a position player he’s a real wild card for me. I’m very skeptical that he’s going to hit.
the bat does have potential, I will give you that
He’s going to have good, plus power, and plus-plus isn’t out of the question. But there’s an awful lot of swing and miss there, which gives him a very low floor and will probably limit his ceiling. Let’s try this:
Floor: Can’t make consistent contact, flames out in AA
Average outcome: Plus power, below average to average contact hitter, above-average glove – rich man’s Brandon Inge?
Ceiling: Plus-plus power, average to above-average contact hitter, Gold Glove caliber defense – Mike Schmidt-esque performance over the short-term without the crazy number of walks?
Tempting, but I think his floor as a pitcher is much higher and his ceiling as a pitcher is maybe a little less than as a position player, but still high (No. 2 potential). Thoughts?
if you think he'll be an above-average hitter for average, I can see that
I don’t see it, though. Awesome bat speed but he’s got a big load into an uppercut swing. There’s a lot of cleaning up to do here.
I think he'll be more of an average hitter for average
Paired with plus power and defense at third, you have a valuable player. He has the ceiling to exceed that (and the volatility to fall below), but that’s what I’m comfortable projecting. I liked him as a pitcher too; I’m just more intrigued by that profile at third base.
And if he never improves on his pitch recognition, he has the arm strength to be tried on the mound later. That seems like the much easier conversion than vice versa.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
potential frontline pitcher
Yeah, having seen him pitch a little I fully expected him to be drafted as a starter. His delivery needed refinement but was much better than I expected and his athleticism showed. He already had the makings of two very good pitches. We’ll see how he hits. Jar notes the consensus that pitching is there as a fall back if he fails as a position player. Reverse Ethan Martin.
by blackoutyears on Jan 4, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
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