Double-A Transition Monitor: Johnny Giavotella, Tom Milone, Brandon Laird
by John Sickels on Sep 9, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
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Brandon Laird: This Yankees prospect was a 27th round pick in the 2007 draft out of Cypress Junior College. A third baseman, he hit .268/.329/.415 with 13 homers in the Florida State League in 2009, not great but his OPS was +9 percent in a tough league for hitting. He had a really good Arizona Fall League last year (.333/.406/.633) and also impressed scouts with his defense, which had previously been rated as fairly weak. Moved up to Double-A Trenton this year, he transitioned very well to Double-A pitching, hitting .291/.355/.523 with 23 homers, 38 walks, and 84 strikeouts in 409 at-bats. He moved up to Triple-A Scranton for August and had problems, hitting .246/.268/.344 with a sharp deterioration in his plate discipline (four walks, 27 strikeouts in 122 at-bats). Obviously he'll need more time to make the Triple-A transition, but at least the Double-A one went well. Despite looking pretty good with the glove in Arizona last fall, he was still too error-prone this year, and he could end up being a first baseman in the long run. Unfortunately his bat probably won't be good enough for first base, so it makes sense for the Yankees to stick with him at third for as long as possible. Grade C pre-season, he did enough this year to bump that to C+.
Tom Milone: One of the best pitchers in Double-A this year was Tom Milone of the Harrisburg Senators. A 10th round pick out of USC in 2008 by the Washington Nationals, he was excellent last year in the Carolina League (2.91 ERA, 106/36 K/BB in 151 innings, 144 hits, 12-5 record), but as a soft-tossing lefty who threw 85-87 MPH, many were skeptical that he could repeat this against advanced competition. Not only did he repeat his performance, he bettered it: 2.85 ERA, 155/23 K/BB in 158 innings, 161 hits, 12-5. Although he gave up a few more hits, a reduction in his walk rate and an increase in strikeouts resulted in a better overall ratio set. His FIP dropped from 3.55 in '09 to 2.85 in '10. Any time you see a pitcher improve his component ratios while moving up a level, you have to be impressed. Milone still doesn't throw hard, but his changeup is excellent and he added additional bite to his breaking ball this year. He was a Grade C pre-season. How high should I raise that given his performance?
Johnny Giavotella: Kansas City Royals prospect Giavotella's 2009 season in the Carolina League was regarded as a bit disappointing by some, but he had a strong second half and was well-positioned for success this year. Succeed he did, hitting .322/.395/.460 for Double-A Northwest Arkansas, with 61 walks, 67 strikeouts in 522 at-bats. He's always had an excellent feel for the strike zone and maintained that this year. He was especially hot in the second half, hitting .374/.438/.571. His defense drew mixed reviews in the lower minors, but he improved his error rate this year and if he keeps hitting his glove should be good enough. All told, it was a very successful transition. I gave him a C+ in the 2010 book; that will be at least a B- in the '11 edition.
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Giavotella
It was good to see him have a solid year hitting the ball and on defense as well. I saw Johnny 3 times and he never did anything that wowed me, but at the end of the game he always had a hit and made all the plays on D.
I see Giavotella as the Royals starting second baseman at some point with a fairly successful career.
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
Re:
I really like Giavotella. Nice gap to gap approach, good power, great plate discipline. Have heard mixed reviews on his defense, but enough positive in there that I think he can stay there.
I always thought Grudz would be a good comp for him
Some average, good patience, some power, decent occasionally great defense. Nothing that will wow you, but good enough to put up 2-3 WAR year in and year out for 10+ years.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
I'll second this
He is pretty dang small and it’d be hard to project him anywhere but 2B, which is his single biggest flaw. I didn’t think his defense was too bad. He’ll never hit many home runs but he has a solid build with enough loft to his swing to get the ball into the gaps.
Anyone worried
That Giavotella is just another NW Arkansas-fueled success story? That park seems to have greatly benefited offense from everything I’ve read, and everyone from Gia to Derrick Robinson to Paulo Orlando has to be at least a little suspect when guys like Moustakas are inviting scrutiny.
by blackoutyears on Sep 9, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Not too much
He hit a very respectable .312/.363/.427 on the road. Not great by any means, but still pretty solid for a 2B.
http://bullpenbanter.com
What's the K rate look like?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 9, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
he was a power hitter in college with strong BA
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
pretty sure he was the cleanup guy on his college team
not that it means much, but pretty awesome seeing a 5-foot-8 guy batting 4th.
he’s not a huge power guy, but he put the good part of the metal bat on the ball so much that there was inevitably a lot of power out of him.
could be a real nice #1 or #2 hitter in the majors.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Tom Milone
No less than a B-… The increase in strikeouts is a plus, but reducing a walk rate that was already superior for his level is something that cannot be ignored. Milone added a cutter late last season and it appears that’s he’s refined it.
I'm a C+ on Milone much as I'd like to grade him higher.
Have you seen him this year? Did you see him late at Potomac? If I see him in person, I might bump him to a B-. Slight chance I’d get to see him for the first time this year if Harrisburg advances.
I’ll bump anyone ump a half grade for exceeding expectations for the year. I have to see a solid scouting report and a comp for me to want to jump anybody up two grades.
Milone won’t get the AFL opportunity that Derek Norris will this year to earn a B- from me because 40-man considerations for Cole and Kimball have them on the roster and Solis is probably a higher priority prospect given his bonus and stuff? If the Nats wanted to challenge to get to DC next year, it seems like they’d put him on the AFL roster to consolidate his AA season. Of course, he’s got to be getting up there in innings and he seemed to have a hard pitch cap last night. Plus they already know he starts at AAA next year, and there’s not much value in more data I suppose. He’s got to pitch well at AAA, and hold off the other 4/5 depth in the Nats organization.
He might be a B- for having all of the secondary skills (makeup, pitch selection, field your position) that add up to runs that are harder to scout from the boxscores.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
C+ for Milone
I like him, and I think he can potentially succeed in the bigs as an end of the rotation arm, but it’s one plus pitch, decent-solid breaking ball, decent fastball.
Agree
Great season no doubt, but I’m not at all confident his fringy stuff will play well against big league hitters.
actually
I’ve seen him a few times. I can’t claim to go to games to “scout” them, but yes, I have seen him.
ouch
Always painful to see the “have you even seen him play?” line epic fail.
In fairness
Plenty of people speak authoratatively on players whom they’ve never seen, which is an epic fail in its own right. Not that you can’t learn everything you need to about a player from his Pioneer League stat line. lol
by blackoutyears on Sep 10, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
there's nothing wrong with that
After all, most of the expert opinion in this field consists of people who don’t see most of these players play, instead relying on their scouting contacts. Secondhand info is still secondhand info, and you never can be sure as to why scouts are divulging the information that they choose to do so, especially with major league prospects being so valuable now. A scout telling Baseball America that Prospect X has gained/lost 3 MPH on his fastball can have huge ramifications.
I just thought it was funny that somebody was actually calling somebody else out on this, especially when the person being questioned actually HAS seen him pitch. You’d never see Jim Callis, Keith Law, or Kevin Goldstein questioned along those lines, and for the most part they don’t get to see that many guys in person, either.
I see Goldstein and Callis
called on it all the time actually, mostly by opeople who don’t like the opinion. Law less so because he’s often reporting his own observations.
And I’m not talking about professional pundits and people with access to scouting reports, obviously, I’m talking about people who read a low minors stat line and make all kinds of assertions based solely on that. People reject the question of having seen a player out of hand, as if their amateur, stat-based opinion is unassailable.
by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Even seeing the guy doesn't do it a lot of the time
Check out the comments section of a Law scouting report. Anyone who disagrees with him will harass him over posting an opinion based on one or two viewings. You can’t win. lol
by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
And most of the 'expert' opinion in this field
is not found in the pages of BA or on BP and ESPN dot com. FWIW.
by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
How did a lefty like Bobby Ojeda get outs?
I’m looking at his minors data right now. I’m seeing a lefty with a low strikeout rate and a low K/BB rate who had a low ERA and still managed to get guys out who didn’t have stuff that may be but so impressive. Necessity or scouting led the BoSox to promote him from high A to AAA from his age 21 to age 22 season. He held his own at AAA and had a breakout the next year in preparation for a solid rookie season.
Starting to answer my own question. Looks like he had an absurdly low HR/9 rate.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Tom Milone
If we’re going to go by performance I’d say a “B” for him. I don’t care how hard he throws, he gets guys out. He picked up his first playoff win yesterday, so he most be doing something right. And I have no doubts that he can get guys out at the major league level too. If Livan Hernandez can get guys out and be a productive pitcher, why can’t Milone.
Be real with yourself.
Tom Milone
He also has a very, very good pick off tool. This also helps for a guy who does not throw hard. I watched Milone all of last season. He didi get better as the season went along and especially after learning to throw the cutter. I also believe he gets better as the season goes because he does not throw high 90’s and does not wear down as the season progresses. Totally agree with Daggerrrrr he just gets batters out.
I was trying to figure out
How he could hit 23 HRs and only have a .423 slugging with a .291 BA.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 10, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
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