True or False: Jon Jay
by John Sickels on Sep 9, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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True or False: Cardinals outfielder Jon Jay will struggle to hit .260 in the majors next year.
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Chris Coghlan 2.0 for me
In that I think he had his career year as a rookie.
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
I think he'll be able to hit .260
He might never ever be that good given that he can’t really play center everyday and his lack of power and patience hurt him. But I do think that he’s capable of maintaining a .270-.280 batting average most years.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
over .260
if he struggles badly he will likely end up in a platoon situation getting most of his at bats against righties. i think he can hit over .260 in that scenario.
As a Cards' fan
I am thrilled with Jay’s success so far, but I don’ think there’s any way he keeps it up. I actually voted for “True” but kind of regret it. I could see him flopping next year offensively but I could see him being solid.
I just don’t see him as a great starting RF. I think there’s a chance he could be adequate, but with his ability to field all outfield positions and my expectation that he will offer OK offense, I kind of hope he’s the 4th outfielder next year, and I think he would do very well.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Yeah
I think I would feel more comfortable if one of the poll options was .260 -.270 because that is what I would have voted.
I guess while this: “False; he won’t have any problems and will hit between .260 and .290” is really my answer, it doesn’t come down hard enough on Jay for me.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
Jay has always had a good hit tool
It’s his other tools that were called into question. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a career similar to Matt Diaz.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Impossible for me
due to anecdotal prejudice; he’s looked excellent every time I’ve seen him this year. Level swing and good bat control. I’d have to see him struggle because at this point I haven’t seem what it takes to get him out. Brickhaus’ Matt Diaz comp is compelling.
CHONE says .286 and ZiPS says .279.
Jay struckout 11.8% of the time in the upper minors.
Hard to believe 41% don’t even think he’ll hit .260.
I think he's performing so high above expectations (and at least some of it has to be luck)
that people are expecting a pretty harsh regression. For what it’s worth, I wish I could change my vote to the second option.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I saw him frequently in Memphis (AAA). My guess is that he’s gotten the now-customary Memphis-to-StLouis uptick that so many seem to get (Chris Duncan, John Rodriguez, just to name 2 that did eventually fall back to earth). And yet, I think he settles in as a solid .270 hitter in the majors. He doesn’t have the power you’d like from a corner OF, but is good enough defensively in CF to stay there. He hit leadoff in AAA plenty; not sure if that’s his best spot in the majors, though. I don’t recall him having a ton of walks (off the top of my head – others may correct me).
Jose Guillen isn’t one of the best 90 outfielders in baseball. (Grant, 09-11-10)
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