Crystal Ball: Michael Stanton
by John Sickels on Sep 5, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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Remember, the Crystal Ball is not a prediction or projection. It is intended to spark discussion about the player in question, in this case young Florida Marlins slugger Michael Stanton. How good will he be? Does this undersell him?
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I see no way he doesn’t post a few 40 HR seasons even with his strikeout rate being high. He’s shown to be streaky thus far but he’s very very young.
by loop on Sep 5, 2010 10:00 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
this
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by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 5, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
and i usually stay on the pessemistic side
+1
I want to see what PECOTA and ZIPS have to say. I just can’t believe that his ceiling is 31 HR, that seems low even in a pessimistic case given his power.
John, you had Jay Bruce surpassing 31 HR almost every year – does Bruce really have that much more power than Stanton?
I also see a 40 HR season (if not more) in his future
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
Ks
I really see the Ks being a drag on his overall numbers for a longer time. I’d actually predict a short-term drop in HR rate and hit rate in general as pitchers give him fewer good things to hit. I could see a higher peak, but at least in the shortterm, I think you’re being a bit optimistic.
+1
I think the batting average will be lower than above, the strikeouts will be alot higher, but with four or more years with 35+ homeruns.
by Jeff in Minny on Sep 5, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure he’ll hit 40, but I could see him getting close to that. Other than that, I think it’s a fair prediction.
I’d love to see one for Carlos Santana btw.
you think stanton will shorten his swing and give up power for less Ks in his future??
only 31 HRs as a career high ???
yes, I the Ks look a bit low as well.
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by VivaLosBravos on Sep 5, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
The thing is, if he did wind up sacrificing power to cut down on his strikeouts, I’d expect a BA above .250. His main batting average problem right now is the K’s. If he wound up putting more balls in play, I’d think he’d get more singles, too.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Sep 5, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
"If he wound up putting more balls in play, I’d think he’d get more singles, too."
Ladies and Gentleman, we have a genius on our hands
Um, thanks.
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Sep 6, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Another thing I dont see is him being out of the league by the age of 35
thats still pretty young to be retired
At his current rate
he’d hit over 30 HR in his first 600 ABs – at age 20. I just don’t see how, barring some strange development in his progress, he doesn’t get to 40+ at least a few times. I think he’ll always K too much, and he may end up a bit overrated in a Ryan Howard-like way, but based on what he’s done so far, he has to project as a 40+ HR guy, at least.
Of course what you're saying is probably right
But it’s not unheard of for players to stop developing at even age 20.
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by OldProspects on Sep 5, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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I see him being like a righty Adam Dunn
Hits for a ton of power, low average, lots of strikeouts, though probably a better fielder than Dunn (not that that’s saying a lot.)
HRs and Average
He is going to hit more then 20 HRs a season. That we know. I think your projection for his average is a bit too bullish. I think he can be a .260-.275 hitter. Especially in his peak years. Ks might be a tad higher though.
Yeah, only three seasons above 30 HR
And none above 31—agree with everyone else here, he has more power than that. I also think the batting average might be just slightly pessimistic, I see him as more of a .270 hitter.
Year-by-Year unadjusted wOBA marks for Stanton, which I find to give a better quick take at what exactly John is projecting here
2011: .362
2012: .370
2013: .322
2014: .314
2015: .351
2016: .339
2017: .342
2018: .398
2019: .364
2020: .354
2021: .392
2022: .355
2023: .300
2024: .337
2025: .321
I find the peak to be somewhat weaker than one would expect from Stanton, particularly when looking at it from a linear-weight perspective.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
45 HR's
A few weeks ago when he hit his 15th HR he was at nearly 1/3 of a full season played assuming he gets 600 AB. I forget the number of AB’s he was at but think it may have been 200 even. That’s a 45 HR projection at age 20. This was at the end of his huge hit streak, but still for anyone at age 20 that’s impressive.
by mattp31 on Sep 5, 2010 2:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Thats impressive for anyone
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Sep 5, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Three things...
1. As pitchers get tape on him he will see more pitches that try to exploit his weaknesses.
2. As you said, thats a projection based on a hot streak.
3. How often will he see 600 ABs? Assuming perfect health I’m hard pressed to believe he will ever touch 600 ABs, especially if people expect him to be a power hitter (he will see more balls out of the strike zone)
Look at the most popular comp around here, Adam Dunn. Dunn has been the model of perfect health (averaging 160 games a year since 2004) and has only seen 550 ABs once).
Yes but he also has a better eye for the plate than stanton probably will ever have
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Sep 5, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Adjustments
Stanton has made some adjustments of his own since coming up. Until his cold streak, he had really improved his walk and K rates and had been hitting for a higher average(even if you take out that hot streak and the current cold streak). Making adjustments at age 20 is a great sign that he should be able to keep making adjustments as pitchers adjust to him.
2.The projection isn’t just based on a hot streak, it was just the time he had 15 HR in 200 AB. That HR per AB still leaves him at 37.5 if he has 500 AB, at age 20.
3.He did most of his damage hitting at the bottom of the order, and the Marlins don’t have much there to protect him with. If you put him up there and protect him with someone like Uggla(or Morrison if he becomes what is projected). He should get better RBI chances as well hitting 4th behind a potential Coghlan, Gaby Sanchez, Hanley lineup in front of him.
4.I’m a believer in Stanton, but I don’t think he’s going to be the same player Heyward will be. I think a good .260-.280 is a fair average projection. I also think he could average 40 HR once he hits his prime. The K’s are going to be high, but I think he has potential to keep them down to the 150 range once he hits his full projection. His power isn’t going to develop any more, but veterans and scouts have said that this kid has as much or more in-game power than they’ve seen from anyone, not just BP power. I think with his athletic background(football and potential USC recruit) that he is still raw in other areas and had plenty of projection left.
by mattp31 on Sep 5, 2010 8:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
protection?
Seriously, you’re using that as an argument? Protection is like clutch, one of those wonderful assumptions people have about the game that simply does not work out statistically.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Protection myth
Protection is generally a myth as numerous studies have confirmed. However, having somebody constantly on base (i.e. Bonds) does help the hitters around him in the lineup.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 6, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed on power...
I also see him having at least a couple years with a lot more BBs than just the low 60s. He had 44 in his AA stint alone this year, and has 26 this year in the MLB. I could see him averaging 60 BBs, if not a little more, per season…not having that be a career high.
Thank God . . .
. . . this isn’t any sort of prediction. I don’t think Mike Stanton’s career will look like this at all and he’ll be a lot better than this. It works for sparking conversation though I guess.
Here’s my problem John and, its no big deal really, but if It isnt a PREDICTION Id rather know how you really think Stanton’s career will go. Its hard to not take it as that. Why else take the time to put out the numbers if there isnt at least a trace of John Sickel’s opinion in them?
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Red Sox gonna get him?
cool
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by bestbostonsports on Sep 5, 2010 8:50 PM EDT reply actions
Hear that Rangers fans?
You only have to wait till 2021!
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Sep 6, 2010 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
...for Stanton to be the WS MVP, you mean.
That’s OK. I guess Hammy and Elvis will split the first 6 WS MVP’s.
I don't any statistical data to back this up...
..and I could be out of left field on this, but his body just looks to me like it will not age well. He’s also (from when I’ve seen him) a max-effort player, and while those guys are fun to watch, they also end up hurt and breaking down way too early in their careers. I chose optimistic because I just don’t see 10 seasons of 140+ games for him, which will dull his other numbers. I realize that makes me the extreme pessimist here, but I’ll gladly admit in 5 years if I’m wrong on this.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
151 games in 2011?
the Marlins will give half of those to Emilio Bonifacio
Wow ... -1
With much respect, I don’t agree with the crystal ball. This has to be close to his floor.
I wonder how the crystal ball would have looked if done during his hot streak
At 20, he has every right to adjust and IMO, in his peak will be a top 10 MVP candidate in NL. We need to remember he was a three sport star and just recently has been focusing solely on baseball.
Can’t wait to do a retro on Mr. Stanton few years later.
Umm...
This has him having a long career, with 364 jacks.
Hard as it might be to believe, not everyone hits 500 jacks in their career.
Reply to self
Seriously, if this is his floor, his ceiling is Hank Aaron.
The career John projects is borderline HOF-er.
It's not his floor or his ceiling
It’s not even a prediction for his most likely outcome. But if it was, I would call it slightly on the pessimistic side.
Okay, so on the other hand maybe John did mean it as his floor.
For me, it’s optimistic for a floor but pessimistic for a midpoint.
No
But Stanton is better than this. Given good health, it’s not unreasonable to think he’d take ten years to hit 364 homers, not 15. And he’s probably got a shot at 500 bombs; I wouldn’t be surprised to seem him average 35 homers over 15 years, and possibly more if he sustains his peak for awhile, which is certainly possible.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
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Stanton
Here is the thing with the crystal balls.
Sometimes I pitch these to what I see as a player’s peak, sometimes to the midpoint, and sometimes to the floor. I usually don’t tell you which I’m doing beforehand, basically because I want to see how people react and I want you guys to hash it out in the discussion.
This Stanton CB is a “floor” view. I do see this as a possible outcome, but you could also do one where he his 600 homers and that would be quite possible too.
Hrmmm…I think it would be very helpful if you threw that out at the beginning. Otherwise, how are we supposed to take these CBs? I have always just assumed these are your opinion on the most likely path the player will take over the course of their career based on everything you know to date of them.
I’d like to also add it rarely seems the community is overwhelmingly in agreement on a poll like this. Seems very interesting that nearly 80% of the people who voted feel this is too pessimistic. Of course there is a rather significant margin of error with all polls in this format but I’ll go ahead and take this as a good indication of how the community feels.
We're talking about floor in terms of floor as a solid MLB player, right?
Because I’d argue that simply given the nature of baseball, a floor that includes 364 homers is awfully bullish.
Obviously I was one of the people mentioning that this view certainly wasn’t optimistic, but at the same time I think it’s absolutely conceivable that Stanton flames out in some manner, simply because those kind of things happen.
If this is his eventual outcome, I’d feel pretty good about his career. Just look at a guy like Delmon Young. Everyone loved him, and he bats .317 in 30 games in his MLB debut. Looked like a potential monster. Then he just totally sucks for most of his early-20’s. Not comparing Stanton to Young or anything, but things can change awfully quickly and any floor for a rookie that involves 364 HR is going to automatically be considered bullish by me.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 6, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
364
I fail to see how a guy who hits 364 homers in his career can be considered a failure. People need to get some perspective here.
What? I said that a career with 364 HR's is exceptionally impressive, and the fact that you consider it his "floor' is rather peculiar
Basically, if his floor is a 364 HR career, what the hell would his median or high-end career look like?
I was the one who said that any crystal ball that gives a guy 364 HR is automatically bullish, and especially so for the floor of a guy with minimal MLB experience. Not sure if you misunderstood me or something, but I would consider Stanton’s career an absolute success if he manages to get to 364 HR.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 6, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
satch
Sorry Satch, my comment wasn’t directed at you. I was just sayin’ that people seem to think this CB indicates Stanton as a failure. Nothing could be further from the truth in my mind.
Totally agreed, that opinion would be pretty short-sighted
If Stanton finishes up his career with these kind of numbers, the Marlins will be quite happy and everyone else should be as well.
An extended career as an above-average regular is a success for essentially any MLB prospect.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 7, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
In all due respect, seven players in MLB history have hit 600 homers.
Sure Stanton could do it, but that’s a stretch to label as a reasonable outcome or even the ceiling for any player.
Stanton
must have seen this crystal ball and got angry when he saw it only had him hitting 17 homers this year. He hit a homer in both games of a double header today.
I love crystal balls, but I don’t really see this as a possible path for Stanton. IMO if he is able to drop his K rates as much as the crystal ball shows, he will be a true superstar. I can see Stanton’s career taking one of three paths (not including injuries): he can pull a 2009 Chris Davis where the Ks are just too much and kill his offensive game, he can continue to strike out at very high rate and be a Mark Reynolds type offensive player, or he can cut down on the Ks (to the 20-22% range) and become one of the best players of this generation.
About 2 years ago...
if John had predicted the exact same career path for Chris Davis, a lot of folks would have said this was his floor.
And a lot of folks would've been pretty wrong
Davis never put up a walk rate even close to what Stanton was tossing out there this season. Stanton’s approach isn’t nearly as flawed as Davis’ was and is.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 7, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You're splitting hairs.
They’re relatively comparable, or were once upon a time. Both are both big mashers with 80 power and contact issues. Davis was extremely impressive in an MLB trial. He looked like as good a bet as anyone to have a handful of 40-jack seasons.
Davis’ minor league numbers are .311/.370/.569. Stanton’s were .274/.369/.570.
The contact problems didn’t hurt Davis much in his 2008 MLB trial, they caught up with him the next season.
But Davis isn’t really my point. I brought him up to show that the folks here who think this is a conservative/floor projection for Stanton are unrealistic.
Walk rate is huge. The difference between Barry Bonds and other power hitters wasn’t the raw power, it was the eye and approach (evidenced by walk rate). Bonds looked for his pitch and had excellent strike zone knowledge, allowing him to take pitches that he didn’t like, even if they were strikes, by not swinging at crap out of the zone. Doing so allowed him to ensure that he wasn’t swinging at a pitch because he had to, but because he wanted to, and therefore allowed him a much better career than guys like McGwire or Sosa or Canseco or Giambi or other guys who had more power than he did but had far worse careers. The devil’s in the OBP.
And yeah, this is a floor projection given what we know now, which is all that can be expected. Stanton’s performed well so far in the majors, but if he breaks his leg and never plays again, then this certainly isn’t his floor, is it? Nor can you expect someone to give a floor projection that assumes he’ll just never figure it out (which is currently the path Davis is following), because then every floor projection is a crap player.
It should also be pointed out that Stanton’s lower BA but equal OBP and SLG mean a higher walk rate and higher ISO, and therefore a better player, as BA is BABIP-dependent but BB% and ISO aren’t. And Stanton is two years younger than Davis, so he can suck for longer and still be a prospect, and Davis’ current .726 OPS isn’t bad, especially if he had Stanton’s walk rate to bump his OBP.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
Dude, I know that Stanton is better than Davis is/was, no one is arguing that.
And we all know that walk rate is important. (FWIW Davis had pretty good walk rates in the minors, too. Not as good as Stanton’s but still quite respectable.)
I am not saying Stanton will fail. John’s CB isn’t saying that. This is a very good career here and you’re being ridiculous to call it a floor. Stanton has major contact issues and he could still easily flame out. You seem to be in denial of this.
will peak with more HR/ RBI
avg is about right, career will be shorter due to high strikeout
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Age 20 IsoP over .250 comps
There are five other players who have posted an IsoP over .250 in age 20 seasons: Ott, A-Rod, Ted Williams, F. Robby and Bob Horner. Stanton is most like Horner, so the CB is certainly conceivable. You would have to think that if Stanton stays healthy, he’ll probably reach 35-45 homers at his peak. As for his career, there is absolutely no guarantee that he won’t be gone from the league by the time he’s 30.
another 2 knocks today
kid is a monster if his strike zone judgement continues to grow whom knows this could end up being a floor viewing.
I think if he gets a 15 year career that is a pretty nice career for the long term. I would take a single at bat and be happy :)
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