Crystal Ball: Starlin Castro
by John Sickels on Sep 4, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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Here is a Crystal Ball for Starlin Castro. It is not intended as a PREDICTION. It is intended to spark discussion about him.
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So you kinda, sorta think
he’s more Ian Desmond than Derek Jeter?
Lol
2500 Hits is far closer to Jeter than to Desmond, I would think.
May the forces of evil become confused on the way to your house.
-George Carlin
I was overlooking BA;
I just saw 10-15 with steals, but never more that 25, and though yawnstipation a la Grey from Razzball.
But you’re right; when you see the longevity and BA John predicts here (except for age 26), it’s still a darn fine career without SBs/HRs totals at impact levels.
by Johnny Tuttle on Sep 4, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm...
At this point, just 92 players in MLB history have more than 2500 hits. If Castro breaks that barrier, I will eat a boiled foot.
by waka25 on Sep 4, 2010 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Good, Lord
If you’re talking pigs feet, I’ll eat it now for nothing.
I thought John was not giving him peak value at first, but when you see the career totals he’s predicting and consider the value of double digit HRs/SBs from a decent OBP guy in the M-INF, really, this is quite a career.
by Johnny Tuttle on Sep 4, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I think
the peak will be better, but his career might not last that long.
by soxaroundtheclock on Sep 4, 2010 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
And that's what makes Castro so awesome: this kind of career is totally conceivable
His 2015 season looks like a possible MVP year.
My quick and dirty wOBA calculation gives him something around .387, which would put him at roughly 6.3 WAR if he’s only an average defender at shortstop. Sounds like the kind of season that could be MVP-worthy to me if things go right.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
My hunch/hope
is that the peak will be a bit better than what John has. I think he’ll develop a bit more consistent year to year power, and make a touch better contact.
That said, if this is his career, I wouldn’t complain, and it does seem fairly possible.
Remember what I said above..
What appears to be his peak season, 2015, is roughly a 6-7 WAR season. That would make him arguably the best shortstop in the game.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 4, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
The Crystal Ball is very good to Starlin. I just tend to think that he might have a touch more power than John is guessing at the moment.
This is borderline HoF numbers
At age 34 he hits 22 homeruns
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
2019
34-HR’s
Mexico City Devil Rays lol
r_j_anderson (on fungible assets)
"@TRancel @Marc_Normandin @ehahmann AKA free talent. Not great talent, mind you, but essentially free."
by CubFanRaysaddict on Sep 4, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Currently has the 3rd highest wOBA
of all SS in the majors. At age 20. Small sample, since July 10 he leads the majors in hits and 2B’s
I don't think
this is outrageous. Ceiling of perennial batting title contender. Interesting prediction of a sudden tapering after his Age 34 season. I’m actually watching Mejia pitch to him right now. 20/20 matchup. lol
Yeah...
I buy Stalin Castro too. He does remind me of Jeter too, but for some reason I’m cautious of it because I think it’s not an uncommon comparison.
It blows me away how natural the guy looks out there. He’s not a good defensive SS now, but he’s got the range.
The cool thing is that I like Hak Ju Lee a whole lot too. I hope that becomes an issue one day.
SBs
His money is going to made on his legs and if he can’t get more then 25 SBs a season, he might as well retire.
I'm assuming this isn't a serious comment, right?
Right?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 5, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
one requestJohn
For position players, I enjoy it when you note what you think their position(s) will be . . .considering how important defense is to the whole equation, I’d love to see that again. Would be especially interesting with Castro.
castro
I’d say SS most of his career, moving over to 2B at some point after age 30
by John Sickels on Sep 6, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Was thinking that myself reading these comments.
I definitely think the SB totals are too high and feel a move from SS will have a big impact on how his career is perceived. Those numbers with 18 years of roughly average defense could make him a HoF player. If he moves from SS though, that could change people’s perception easily.
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