Looking at Bumgarner's season

I said he was a very good young pitcher, but that doesn’t make him an ace.

I was just pointing out pitchers that are aces that weren’t that far ahead of him in the K department. Nothing random about it.

Not sure how you have Bum at 17.2%. He has 86 Ks against 472 batters faced. That’s 18.2%. Sabathia, Lee, Halladay are at around 20-22%. I don’t see how that’s “way up” from Bumgarner. That’s one more strikeout for ever 33 batters faced. And you have other guys who could be aces depending on your definition of ace (Santana, Buchholz, Carpenter, Cain) that have even lower rates.

Yes, it’s an extremely SSS, but the point I was making is those are the only results that we have where his FB velocity is back at least close to what it was in 2007-2008 (and the first third of 2009). He’s shown throughout his career that he is a way above-average strikeout pitcher when his velocity is that high.

The question is, will he be able to maintain the velocity going forward? IMO the answer is most likely, yes. The fact that he has seen the increased velocity at the very end of the longest season he’s ever had, where he’s pitched way more innings than he ever has, tells me that the loss of velocity was related to mechanics and not a physical limitation. If he can throw that fast when he’s worn out, he should gain even a bit more velocity at the begining of a season when he’s fresh.

Why is K/PA better than K/9? I’m not too familiar with this one.

Many were arguing for him to be a top 15 prospect on our community list, and defending the top 15 ranking he got from BA, and for me, that is the same as arguing he could develop into a future ace. It’s how I handle rankings vs how someone like PP does. If a player is a top 15-20 prospect, and continues to develop, then they should be expected to be all-stars/ace type players.

So the argument is the same, except as we go, there are fewer and fewer flaws in his game. Last year the debate was far more balanced as he posted 1 WHIPs in AA/AAA as a 20-21 year old, but was doing it with a upper-80s fastball and showed little secondary pitches. But now, he’s in the low 90s, showing more secondary stuff, dominating in the majors at 21, and getting stronger as he goes.

The detractors have less and less of a foothold to push back on the argument that this guy has ace potential and is on track to be an ace, but the push back continues! The line keeps getting moved from “yeah that stuff won’t play in AA, or AAA or the majors, or he’ll get hit in his second time through the league or next month or next year or 3-4 years from now, then he’ll collapse and end up in the pen”. It’s what rose this debate to a ridiculous level.

Like with Stanton, for instance, some thought the Ks would catch up to him in the majors (myself included), but I’ll admit being wrong at that. If he continues to play as he is, which is kinda silly to say given his age, then he could be a Dunn-like producer, which is great. I suspect he’ll improve and could elevate his game. MadBum doesn’t get that same treatment, even though he continues to improve, and produce.

As we may all define Ace as something different. Like is Cliff Lee an ace? Or Tim Hudson? or Glavine with more Ks.

As I said this off-season, I could see MadBum posting peak Tim Hudson numbers, a low WHIP, walking around between 2-3 per 9, striking out around 7 per 9, and logging 200+ innings a year. That, to me, is ace potential type numbers, with a little luck, he could grab a Cy with those numbers.

But given his velocity improvement, and statistical improvement across the board, as the season wore on, I think a reasonable argument could be made that he could improve on those numbers.

I always expected a good debut. His deceptive style may stop fooling guys as much when they see him the third time around.