2010 Rookie Evaluations: AL East
by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 3, 2010 8:03 PM EDT
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Francisco Cervelli - .251/.325/.311 and technically a rookie but the least interesting catcher in the organization.
Ivan Nova - 14 innings, 11 K's, 2 bb's, 1.93 ERA, 4 games, 2 starts.
John Jaso - 280/.388/.396 in 321 PA's. One of the rare catchers to ever get significant time in a leadoff spot, Jaso is an underrated Rookie of the Year candidate. In some years, he might even win it. 47 walks and 32 strikeouts on the season, his OBP and the ability to stick at catcher could keep him in the bigs for a long time. 2.4 WAR per fangraphs.
Reid Brignac - .258/.307/.381 in 280 PA's.
Wade Davis - 134.1 innings, 85 k's, 51 bb's, 135 hits, 4.29 ERA, 5.10 FIP, 4.96 xFIP. The perennial top prospect finally gets his full time shot and meh, not very good. The K:bb and K/9 especially. He's just about to turn 25, so he can still get better and be very good, but doubtful he'll be as good as once thought.
Jeremy Hellickson - 26.1 innings, 25 k's, 4 walks, 16 hits, 2.05 ERA in 4 starts. For those of you saying "But how can you be so negative on Davis?" Because he's clearly no Hellickson. Davis was a top 30 prospect for the last 3 years, so yeah, there are expectations there. Hellickson has a small major league sample size, but you can see how good he can be. Really, really good.
Daniel Nava - The top prospect in baseball has gone .252/.338/.374 in 139 PA's. Clearly meant for the Hall of Fame, he should just retire now.
Do I sense sarcasm?!
Ryan Kalish - .238/.278/.369 in 91 PA's. Still only 22 years of age.
Felix Doubrant - 25 innings, 23 k's, 10 bb's, 27 hits, 4.32 ERA. 22 years old.
JP Arencibia - .217/.217/.522 in 23 AB's.
Josh Bell - .214/.228/.321 114 PA's. You could say it was nice to get anything back for George Sherrill. Bell is still only 23.
Jake Arrieta - 88 innings, 44 Ks, 46 bb's, 94 hits, 5.11 ERA. Sorry, but rookie seasons can't go much worse than a k:bb ratio like that and a k.9 ratio of 4.50.
Alfredo Simon - Good for the 29 year old to get his first real shot. 45.2 innings, 37 k's, 21 bb's, 4.93 ERA, 17 saves.
Overall Evaluation -
Isn't it surprising that the Blue Jays are such a veteran team? Even with a really young pitching staff. They just might make some noise, especially when guys like Drabek are ready. Orioles have faced 3 pretty disappointing seasons from their 3 young pitchers. Zach Britton anyone? Nothing changes as the Royals still have the best young players.
Top 5 Rookie Performances -
1. John Jaso
2. Wade Davis (gets the nod because he's been there all season)
3. Jeremy Hellickson
4. Francisco Cervelli?
5. Ivan Nova?
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Is Nava considered a rookie? He is 27
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by bestbostonsports on Sep 3, 2010 8:25 PM EDT reply actions
That's the sarcasm
Well he is actually still a rookie, just now considered a prospect.
Cervelli
He acquired the roster time 2009 to make him not a rookie like Ramiro Pena did.
lol
2010 Red Sox Playoffs.... We Can Do It!
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by bestbostonsports on Sep 4, 2010 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
The best division in baseball last?
West Coast bias!
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
No one hates the East coast more than the west does
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Sep 3, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
No Brian Matusz? He has had a strange season. Started out really good, had some poor starts in the middle which inflated his ERA, but recently has been tremendous.
Agreed, Keith Law said a couple days ago that he could still see Matusz being an ace-like pitcher by 2012 or 2013
Assuming that he still makes some improvements.
And he’s been great his last six starts, as you noted: 4-1 W-L, 2.43 ERA, 26 strikeouts, 7 walks in 37 innings.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 4, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Wade Davis
Perhaps we might just be seeing a sophomore slump from Davis, a la David Price in 2009. I bet he dominates in 2011.
Davis
He’s been arguably the Rays’ best pitcher in the second half. He had some over-analyzed midseason struggles, and folks have seemingly missed that he’s 5-0 since the All-Star break with a 3.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.56 K/BB, and actually a HIGHER BABIP than the first half (for those who were going to say it was a luck-related streak ;) ).
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Thoughts...
I’m not blown away by Davis’ stuff or anything. He’s a solid pitcher in the long run. Maybe a 3-4 starter with a couple #2 years.
Hellickson is going to be a better version of Jamie Shields. He’s a got a simile style…possibly makes Shields trade bait. He’d do well in the NL.
Jaso and Cervelli should have nice careers in this league. I really like Cervelli as a long term backup catcher.
Nova’s stuff surprises me. He kinda hit me with a Freddy Garcia vibe…not a bad arm for another team to look to pick up if they were doing trade business with the Yankees.
Not a rookie…the whole Blue Jays pitching staff is awesome.
Yeah... I could easily see Davis pushed to the pen.
and I still don’t think Hellickson is an Ace kind of pitcher. He’s great and I’d love to have him, though.
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They're not trading James Shields
He’s still a total bargain.
He’s due $4.25M for 2011, $5M net for 2012, $7.5M net in 2013 and $11M net in 2014. He’s too solid and too affordable for them to deal him at this juncture.
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by Satchel Price on Sep 5, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That's exactly why
Shields is a huge bargain FOR ANOTHER TEAM, which is why the Rays will move him because for them, he’s the most expensive guy they’ve got. They’ll be needing to make some tough pitching decisions in the near future, but moving Shields is pretty much a no-brainer financially right now for them until Price and Garza get to earning bigger money.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Garza is earning bigger money
He made $850K more than Shields this year and will get more than a $900K raise in arbitration to make more than Shields again next year. The fact that Shields is cost controlled long term is more important to the Rays.
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+1
I’m not sure how you can argue, “But he’ll be such a great bargain for the other team!” as a selling point for why you should deal a player.
The Rays can afford to pay players like Shields. It’s when guys like Crawford hit FA and they’re commanding $14-17M per year that it’s probably best for Tampa to let them walk. The Rays shouldn’t be dealing Shields unless they can a knock-out offer.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 6, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would they trade a guy who's....
been a solid #2-3 in the AL East for a few years for nothing? Of course they have to get something nice for Shields.
Yeah, but look at what a lot of pitchers have gone for lately..
I’m not sure it’s worth dealing Shields for one very good prospect and a couple of decent guys.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 6, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Garza
Thought he was up after this year, my bad. I went to Rotoworld (usually fairly good on contracts/arby) and they showed him as a questionable Super Two going into this year and hadn’t updated anything.
That said, Shields’ set contract is also very appealing on the open market, and I really think we’ve seen the best of what Shields can do. They have a ton of arms that could slot into the rotation, and Shields could really bring good return to help keep the team at a high level of competition.
From what has been rumored, the team will drop $20 million in payroll next season, so they may have to make more cuts than just not resigning Crawford to cut that much.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Cot's Baseball Contracts
Go here for contract info, by far the best site out there.
Garza has three years of arbitration left at this point, it’s likely he far exceeds what Shields is guaranteed over those same years. If it’s a money decision, he’s the guy you move. As for cutting $20 million in payroll, well they have that much falling off just in Pena and Crawford who are free agents. Pena has said he wants to stay there, so maybe he comes back for a discount, I don’t know. They also have Soriano at $7.25 million, Wheeler at a savings of $2.5 million if they decline his option, Navarro at $2.1 million and Bartlett at $4 million as players that could be gone from this year’s team. I can see Bartlett moving with Brignac in house and ready for a bigger role next year. Same with Navarro with Jaso/Shoppach on hand.
It’s hard to speculate how much they might have to cut, because a playoff run and additional revenue there could change things a good bit. Garza just seems like the more logical choice to move at this point, with his cost being uncertain for the next three years unlike Shields.
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Yeah
I love Cot’s, but it was blocked at work where I was when I responded to this.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they do a contract with Garza to buy out his arby years, but it all depends on what they think they can do with Price down the road.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
as a baseball fan, I'm kind of disappointed in the Orioles'
rookie pitchers. I wonder if that has anything to do with their ballpark?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
It's certainly a quick drop from feeling a high to a low.
Last offseason I was thinking about the Orioles and how they had Adam Jones/Wieters/Matusz/Tillman and a couple other guys that would get you really excited about the future.
At this point though, I feel really bad for O’s fans. Because not only have the players disappointed, but the four teams they are looking up at are 4 of the best teams in baseball.
by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 7, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
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